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Archives >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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javlin
Weather Master


Reged: Wed
Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
Re: Winds In Emily [Re: ralphfl]
      #42924 - Wed Jul 13 2005 11:11 PM

You got a laugh out of me ralph.

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drcrazibob
Weather Watcher


Reged: Mon
Posts: 30
Loc: Daytona Beach, Fl
Re: Winds In Emily [Re: ralphfl]
      #42925 - Wed Jul 13 2005 11:12 PM

Quote:

Do you people even read what the NHC says? they talk about how hard it is to forcast the winds they just dont have a good handle on that but all models but the ukmet takes it to the yucatan.

I love wishcasters and doomcasters who have nothing more then a wish to see a north moevment in this.

What is even more funny is when the last storm was going Dennis i talked about what the ukmet modle said and i was told how bad the model is but now since it shows the most intrest everyone wants to jump on it.

Its the wishcasters and doomcasters that makes boards like this sick.

I think its going where they say and why? cause that is there buisness and yes it may be wrong but 99% of the models are showing it not going to florida but only time will tell till the next one comes.




I have been watching this site for 2 years now and have a lot of RESPECT for many of the posters on here. I think your statement is very disrespectful. And if you don't like what you're reading, then don't read it.


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: Great Lakes 45.95N 84.55W
Re: Winds In Emily [Re: ralphfl]
      #42926 - Wed Jul 13 2005 11:15 PM

ralph, no one is wishcasting this storm anywhere NEAR the United States. No one wants to see this storm become any stronger than it is or affect any landmass. When making a forecast, one must consider all available guidance and weigh it accordingly based upon past performance, initialization, and the forecaster's own intuition. The UKMET model is but one of those tools, one that both the forecasters here and at the NHC use in making their forecasts.

I don't recall anyone here saying that it is going to be a storm to hit Florida; you have people asking if it might affect Florida, but no one saying that it will. Anytime a model changes, especially if it brings the storm closer to the US, people are going to start asking questions for their own peace of mind and because they are curious as to why that might happen. That does not equate to people wish/forecasting it to hit Florida -- or anywhere else in the US at the time being, for that matter.

Please send me a private message if you have any questions or concerns, and I'll do my best to alleviate them.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 395
Loc: 25.63N 80.33W
Re: Winds In Emily [Re: drcrazibob]
      #42927 - Wed Jul 13 2005 11:16 PM

Ralph, this is why the NHC hasn't put anything on a northward movement yet:

Due to the scatter in the recon fixes during the past couple of
hours...initial motion is uncertain but is estimated at 275/16.


From the 11:00 PM Discussion

--------------------
Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005



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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: Great Lakes 45.95N 84.55W
Re: Winds In Emily [Re: Hurricane Fredrick 1979]
      #42928 - Wed Jul 13 2005 11:17 PM

Hurricane Fredrick 1979 -- there is a no-fly zone in and around Cuba due to the trade embargo we have levied against their nation, but other than that, most of the other nations in the Caribbean/Atlantic are friendly with the US and permit our recon planes to fly over them. All waters outside of ~45mi. from a nation's shore are termed international waters (someone can correct me on the mileage if needbe) and thus free for flight; over/near a nation, with the exception of Cuba, we should be good.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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ralphfl
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 435
Re: Winds In Emily [Re: javlin]
      #42929 - Wed Jul 13 2005 11:18 PM

glad i got a laugh out of you but there are a few who post on here that the only time they post is when they see something the NHC does not see or takes it near a big population.

Dennis was prime example how a few swore the NHC was wrong and it was going up the west coast of florida.

Forcasting a hurricane id easy for non NHC people cause if you are wrong who cares so ill stick with the pro's and yes try and skip the ones who only post when there is a small sign of a north movement.


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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 317
Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
Re: Winds In Emily [Re: ralphfl]
      #42931 - Wed Jul 13 2005 11:18 PM

I think that people are not jumping onboard withe UKMET model. What they are doing is looking at a couple models that were once south and are seeing changes in them. The UKMET model was consistent with Dennis, the model moved very little, until the last 24 hours and even then it was wrong.

So I doubt anyone would jump onboard relying soley on the UK Model, but they are curious as to what made the model move further north.

The only thing sick about this board, is the fact that people are quick to criticize others.. If we could just keep an open mind, we could learn from each other. This board is meant for collaboration.

--------------------
Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!


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Joe
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 216
Loc: St.Petersburg,FL
Re: Winds In Emily [Re: drcrazibob]
      #42932 - Wed Jul 13 2005 11:20 PM

It appears that Emily's strengthening is somewhat associated with an anticyclone located very close by at the 200 hPa layer.

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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: Great Lakes 45.95N 84.55W
Re: Winds In Emily [Re: Clark]
      #42933 - Wed Jul 13 2005 11:20 PM

New thread up on the main page...head on over, everyone!

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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nowhammies
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 19
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Model mania [Re: spencercape]
      #42934 - Wed Jul 13 2005 11:23 PM

I don't really know enough to know whether the mets that post here go too much or too little by the NHC forecasts. I do realize a couple of things though.

1. I learn more from reading their description of what they think could happen , than I have ever learned from the NHC's discussion of what will happen.

2. If I was a met, I would relish a place where I could talk about what I think would happen even if it were only an outside suspicion. I value thier commments as a great way for me to learn more and feel more prepared for these storms.


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wxman007
Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL 30.18N 85.77W
Re: Winds In Emily [Re: Clark]
      #42940 - Wed Jul 13 2005 11:31 PM

Quote:

Hurricane Fredrick 1979 -- there is a no-fly zone in and around Cuba due to the trade embargo we have levied against their nation, but other than that, most of the other nations in the Caribbean/Atlantic are friendly with the US and permit our recon planes to fly over them. All waters outside of ~45mi. from a nation's shore are termed international waters (someone can correct me on the mileage if needbe) and thus free for flight; over/near a nation, with the exception of Cuba, we should be good.




Just some slight correction/clarification:

Occasionally we do get overflight rights to go over Cuba, but it is not often, and never consistant. Territorial waters actually only extend 12 nautical miles away from the 'mean low water mark", so the hunter's can get really close to the coastline before landfalls.

--------------------
Jason Kelley


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nowhammies
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 19
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Model mania [Re: jr928]
      #42941 - Wed Jul 13 2005 11:39 PM

Tradesports.com sells some sort of stock like interest in where a hurricane would strike and how strong it would be. They do a lot of political trades too and have been found to be very accurate. I heard about it on the radio today - maybe I will have to check it out. With my luck in financial matters, if I invest on the fact that a storm will hit me it may be the only security I can ever buy

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jusforsean
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 23
Loc: Broward County
Re: Emily Moves West Other Disturbances Are Being Watched Also [Re: MikeC]
      #43417 - Sat Jul 16 2005 12:45 PM

HI,
Does anyone have up tp date info on the next TD no 6.
I am trying to figure out the best way to track these waves that the NWS and the news doesnt update on yet.
Thanks
jusforsean


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Ryan
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 281
Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
Re: Emily Moves West Other Disturbances Are Being Watched Also [Re: jusforsean]
      #43492 - Sat Jul 16 2005 08:53 PM

are the disturbances still being watched? If so, are they strengthening and where are they going?

Thanks, Ryan

--------------------
2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.

Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back


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