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Tropical Depression Two in unfavorible conditions, likely to fall apart or dissipate tomorrow.
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Archives >> 2002 News Articles and Talkback

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2912
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Subtropical Depression 12 and Isidore
      #4435 - Fri Sep 20 2002 04:54 PM



We have a new Subtropical depression out of a wave well southeast of the Bahamas.

Isidore has weakened a tad as it nears the land, but it won't much. The track is still as confusing as ever, but is trending more to the west now. We'll have to continue to be vigilant.

Jim Williams and Barometer bob are doing live Audio shows starting at 8PM and lasting usually to 10 or 11PM all during Isidore's run. Use the link below to check them out.

Havana, Cuba Radar

NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor

Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF

DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, MM5, NOGAPS, UKMET

Other commentary at Mike Anderson's East Coast Tropical Weather Center, Accuweather's Joe Bastardi, Hurricane City Weather Audio Broadcast Network - Live Audio from Jim Williams and Barometer Bob , Tropical Weather Watchers.Com (JasonM) Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut, Ed Dunham and Jason M in our Storm Forum Even more on the links page.

- [mike@flhurricane.com]


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Kevin
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
Re: Subtropical Depression 12 and Isidore
      #4438 - Fri Sep 20 2002 05:13 PM

Latest NHC forecast turns the system due west after 48 hours and accelerates it some. To be frank with the posters here and myself, I believe if we see any more acceleration in the BOC with a continued westerly track, I will be strongly considering shifting my forecast towards the south and west in a very significant manner. The threat to the US may just be decreasing at this time, but I'm far from completely convinced at this time.

Are we done yet? No way. Just look across the Atlantic...it appears condtions are quite favorable there and the wave at 40 west is very large and quite vigorous. We could well have another depression by Sunday or Monday. If this one develops it could have a legitimate chance of becoming a major hurricane with an upper-level high building in to it's north. The wave behind it could improve with time. After all, we are still in September.

Subtropical depression 12 has formed....should head NE gradually over the next few days. Not a real threat to anybody.

Watch Isidore until he's dead or has a sure-footed westward motion established. Keep in mind, though, that the Eastern Atlantic may try to pop a few that may try to threaten in the long-term.

Kevin


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Rasvar
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 567
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
Re: Subtropical Depression 12 and Isidore
      #4439 - Fri Sep 20 2002 05:21 PM

Just too repeat what I said in the other thread. I feel ok going along with the current 72 hour forecast from NHC. If there is significant deviation on one side or another, things will get more interesting. For now, I'm just going to relax and enjoy some football with an occasional glance over the weekend. As long as Izzy is on or near forecast, i'll just sit and wait. Have a feeling I will still be looking at Izzy next weekend.

--------------------
Jim


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Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: Subtropical Depression 12 and Isidore
      #4440 - Fri Sep 20 2002 05:26 PM

They don't speed Izzy up at the end, they still have him slowing down.

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J.J.
Unregistered




Isidore's future...
      #4441 - Fri Sep 20 2002 05:34 PM

I am intrigued by its continued westward track. If Isidore makes it into the BOC, and keeps favorable upper-level conditions as well, it might--repeat, *might*--take off. The SST anomalies in the BOC are running at least 1 - 1.5 C above normal; in fact, it's even warmer than the NW Caribbean.

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Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: Isidore's future...
      #4442 - Fri Sep 20 2002 05:40 PM

Izzy looks to have jumped a tiny bit north will on land.

Also, There is now another invest 92L. Looks like the wave east of the islands. Things are really heating up now.


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Kevin
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
Re: Isidore's 72 hour speed (directed to anonymous poster)
      #4443 - Fri Sep 20 2002 05:42 PM

Take a close look at the new track:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT10/AL1002W.GIF

Notice how the line gets longer between 48 and 72 hour forecast points? That indicates a slight increase in speed, but Isidore still won't be a dragster by any means. NHC's forecasted coordinates actually support a westward acceleration between 48 and 72 hours.


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Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: Isidore's 72 hour speed (directed to anonymous poster)
      #4444 - Fri Sep 20 2002 05:49 PM

That is an illusion. The lines between the other plots is for a 12 hr period not a 24 hr period.

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wxman007
Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL 30.18N 85.77W
Re: Isidore's 72 hour speed (directed to anonymous poster)
      #4445 - Fri Sep 20 2002 05:51 PM

Actually Kev, look at the valid times...

The previous 4 points have a 12 hr interval...the time distance between the last 2 is 24 hrs...so the longer distance isn't an increase in speed...it's pretty much a continuation...



--------------------
Jason Kelley


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Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: Isidore's 72 hour speed (directed to anonymous poster)
      #4447 - Fri Sep 20 2002 05:54 PM

JK

Are you starting to prescribe to the WSW movement? 2 of the NHC models still have a turn north around 48 hours. I just think that eventually, it has to come north and northeast.


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Kevin
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
Re: Isidore's 72 hour speed (directed to anonymous poster)
      #4448 - Fri Sep 20 2002 05:55 PM

Thanks for clearing that up Jason. I guess that line really is an illusion, I have heard before not to puch much credit into an exact set of coordinates like that anyways. Very deceptive.

Kevin


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meto
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 140
Re: Subtropical Depression 12 and Isidore
      #4449 - Fri Sep 20 2002 05:58 PM

this hurricane will be going very slow couple days out. and no one is in the clear, west central fla could well be threatened by the hurricane.

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wxman007
Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL 30.18N 85.77W
Re: Isidore's 72 hour speed (directed to anonymous poster)
      #4450 - Fri Sep 20 2002 06:05 PM

I'm still deciding...and I have about 4 more minutes to make a call before I hit the air!!!

I'll let you know what I think a little later...


--------------------
Jason Kelley


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Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: Isidore's future...
      #4451 - Fri Sep 20 2002 06:13 PM

Yes it is...interesting weekend with 4 systems (though 2 only to watch carefully). The guys from Purto rico will have their share of excitement...Kyle, Lilly or Marco?
I guess Gray should be filling out his retirement papers


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Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: Subtropical Depression 12 and Isidore
      #4452 - Fri Sep 20 2002 06:35 PM

sounds like izzy is going to mexico to here everyones thinking its got a long way to go to get there people to the north stay awake but sounds like this ones a goner w/c said less threat to us great news we can go to bed tonight

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Domino
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 191
Loc: Makati City, Philippines
Wishcasting for Indiana...
      #4453 - Fri Sep 20 2002 06:38 PM

Well I made some jokes yesterday that for me to wishcast this would have to be a cat 5 going at 500mph to reach me, I shoulda kept my mouth shut. I'll be offline for a few days as an F-3 or F-4 tornado leveled half my city today. Luckily I'm safe and my home escaped damage, more than I can say for the rest of my town and the state of Indiana in general. See you all when I have power again.
Derek


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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
Wave east of the islands is my concern
      #4454 - Fri Sep 20 2002 06:53 PM

As all of you are dealing with Isidore and his future movements I here in Puerto Rico will have to deal by midweek with a potential developing wave that has all in it's favor for developent.

--------------------
My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3


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troy2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 227
Loc: cocoa beach
Re: Wave east of the islands is my concern
      #4455 - Fri Sep 20 2002 07:13 PM

Derek/Domino

Hang in there. Hope eneryone you know is safe.

Troy


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Kevin
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
Re: Wave east of the islands is my concern
      #4456 - Fri Sep 20 2002 07:16 PM

I agree with you 100% Cycloneye. This looks to be a threat for Puerto Rico, and possibly a major one at that. The Lesser Antilles and Greater Antilles need to monitor this storm as it may be near you by the early and middle part of next week.

This system should intensify quite rapidly...but I don't believe this is an instant fish storm. The troughs have had a trend of missing storms this year. Still to early to comment on a US threat, but it appears possible eventually.

Kevin


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2912
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: Wishcasting for Indiana...
      #4457 - Fri Sep 20 2002 07:28 PM

Domino,
I heard about the Tornadoes on the way home tonight. Best wishes to all up there, and I hope nobody close to you was hurt.

--

The wave east of the Caribbean is the next one I'm watching. Isidore is just so Isidorish, and will do the deep gulf twirl, while we'll just track every wobble as a "definitive move" toward whomever.



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