dizzy58
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Clark,
How far west in the US could these "dust clouds" cover?
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FlaMommy
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Loc: Tampa(Riverview), Florida
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the reason i was wondering is becase joe bastardi mentioned 1954 all over again...thats why 
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"Haven't thought of a witty one lately"
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Clark
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Probably not very far. They'll lose their transport mechanism once they leave the tropical easterlies (and associated tropical waves), making any substantial progression unlikely (save maybe for in the Gulf...even then it's likely to be rather diluted). We're too far north and too close to the mid-latitude westerlies to see anything terribly significant.
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lawgator
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Loc: E C Fla.
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Here's an article form Orlando Sentinel on dust storm:
As if this hurricane season weren't tumultuous enough, Central Florida -- and the rest of the Southeast -- is about to get hit by a sandstorm.
By Monday or Tuesday, a Sahara dust outbreak, or a cloud of what originally was African sand carried across the Atlantic on the back of a tropical wave, is expected to settle over the region for about 12 hours, forecasters said.
It might turn the skies milkier and leave a light coating of reddish-brown dust on your car, the result of a small amount of iron content. It also could make the sunrise and sunset spectacular, said Jim Lushine of the National Weather Service in Miami.
"It's just kind of an interesting phenomenon," he said. "You might see it better in the morning, when the angle of the sun is low."
Usually, such dust clouds are too diluted to cause health problems or reduce visibility for aircraft pilots.
On the other hand, if concentrated enough, the outbreak could raise the air-quality index into the unhealthy range for people with respiratory problems, said Ken Larson, a natural-resource specialist in South Florida.
Dust outbreaks, which are most common in early July, start when tropical waves lift sand from the Sahara to about 10,000 feet, where it is reduced to even smaller particles. The dust then drifts west on a dry tropical wave, as opposed to a moist tropical wave, which can spin into a hurricane.
The dust cloud aiming this way is huge, about 2,500 miles from west to east and 1,500 miles from north to south, or almost as big as the United States, Lushine said.
By today, the outbreak should be about 1,400 miles east of Miami, moving west at 345 miles per day, about the same pace as a tropical system.
Because the Sahara dust carries some pathogens, it might harm coral reefs, particularly in the Caribbean, said Bernhard Riegl, an associate professor at Nova Southeastern University's Oceanographic Center.
"Entire desert locusts, the insects, have made it across the Atlantic to the Windward Islands," Riegl said.
One good side effect: "It's difficult for tropical-storm development to occur in these dust outbreaks," Lushine said.
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scottsvb1
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Clark pretty much sumed it up. I wouldnt worry about any dust-storm. Maybe alittle hazy conditions and people who might have trouble breathing but that is at a worse case scenerio. Anyways they pretty much told the truth but jacked it up on the paper.
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MikeG
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may be my eyes, but franklin appears to be on the move (faster than this morning) i would say north, maybe just slightly east of north, (at 6-10kts) but appears to be strengthing too. The dust storm can be seen pretty good on GOES 12 8km from colostate.edu. noticed at the bottom of dust system, there is a pretty good tropical wave nearing the islands. might be too close to south america, but may make into carribean, will have to wait and see. Wonder what the NASA guys are going to do this weekend. Sat at noon is when the next countdown is suspose to begin for tuesday launch. Atlantis was moved this morning to prepare for vehicle assembly.
Will franklin catch the weakness or will he miss it? right now it looks very close i think.
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scottsvb
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Franklin is moving about 8mph to the N or about 5dg on average with slight wobbles from 0-10dg on averaging. I expect a N or NNE motion for the next 48 hours then will miss the first trough and slow down near 30N and 74W (abouts) then wobble around then get picked up by the stronger trough going off the east coast (tuesday-thurs). Its not out of the question that he might move sw then threaten florida but the ridge will be weak between troughs. I would like to see a globle model or 2 pick up on this. The hints at something on the 12Z run going into florida on monday-tuesday but takes Frankin rapidly NE. It could be seeing 2 things.
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TAZMAN
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Quote:
The dust storm can be seen pretty good on GOES 12 8km from colostate.edu.
Mike do you have a link ?
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Rasvar
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If I recall, it took the models a couple of false starts before they grasped on the idea of Jeanne looping last year. I will feel more comfortable if Franklin is trucking NE at a good rate right on past 70W. If the turn is going to happen, I almost doubt the models grasp it until tomorrow afternoon. It is a too close to call photo finish to me at this time.
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Jim
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scottsvb
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Franklin pressure near 1008mb from 1007mb......expect winds to stay though at 50mph with 53kt winds at flight level or 45K near surface (abouts).
scottsvb
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TAZMAN
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http://visibleearth.nasa.gov/view_rec.php?id=7004
This is dated back in May.... how long would something like this need to come across?
EDIT: It's probably this one? http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/gallery/?2005200-0719/WestAfrica.A2005200.1420.1km.jpg
Edited by TAZMAN (Fri Jul 22 2005 06:45 PM)
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Rasvar
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Quote:
Wonder what the NASA guys are going to do this weekend. Sat at noon is when the next countdown is suspose to begin for tuesday launch. Atlantis was moved this morning to prepare for vehicle assembly.
Fortunately, there is room for two in the VAB. I think they may wait as long as possible[IE, right before they start the countdown], to make a rollback decision. I am not sure how much a launch criteria a down range storm is. That is more of an issue for booster recovery ships. I seem to recall them launching with rough weather in the recovery zone. If Franklin stalls off the coast, which is starting to look less likely, they may have to consider rollback. As of right now, if Franklin does head NE in the short term, they should be able to get a shot in for a launch on Tuesday. Anything after that would be questionable if Franklin loops back. Although, if they fill the tank and try for Tuesday and do not launch, they may be in trouble considering the 24-30 hours to empty the tank and then seven hours[I think] for the rollback.
My guess for now, they start the clock on Saturday. If Franklin hints at a turn back, they stop and scrub the countdown and prepare for rollback, holding off for as long as the safely can.
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Jim
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scottsvb
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yeah I think there were a couple models that took jeanne off to the ne but they werent the best models last year at the time. We saw what was clearly evident of a turn back towards the west and it was supported by 2-3 decent models that we rely more on.
With franklin,,,,,,clark sums everything up best with the Bamn models and what they take on tropical systems. All globles take Franklin off to the NE, some faster then others. Again I note looking at the 12Z it seeing something going into Florida early next week ( which that when it would have to happen before the next stronger trough) and its the first sign of any major model picking up on what could be Franklin. Also though it does keep the original storm heading NE and out to sea. So it could be seeing 2 things.
Edited by scottsvb (Fri Jul 22 2005 06:42 PM)
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abyrd
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Just a thought, and not predicting anything, but Franklin is due east of Fort Pierce right now. Fronts, which is what we hope will pick up Franklin, just don't get that far south, except on rare occasions, during July/August. Wouldn't the storm need to get even with, say Savanah, to feel the affects significantly? That's roughly 350 miles. With that in mind, any slowdown over the next two days and Franklin misses the train.
As always, just a thought. Please poke holes in my theory.
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lawgator
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Any thoughts on the blob of convection at 55W, 10 N? Future "G" storm? I'll resist any "G-string" jokes for the moment. But on the water vapor loop it looks mighty healthy, especially compared to Franklin.
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scottsvb
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Well you have kinda the right concept but a trough or front doesnt have to be that far down to mess up to ridge or reframe the ridges shape. For example the first trough is moving quick and isnt real strong but enough to have the ridge near Franklin erode on its NW side causing a weakness and pushing him around it. Now ridges are like bubbles,,,they are in many shapes and sizes and slide around and dissapate. A 2nd stronger trough will move down off the east coast and weaken the ridge and push it into the eastern gulf with a stronger ridge then off south of Bermuda. Now even though there is no cold front inbetween the ridges over the SE US or SW Atlantic there is no ridge. So its called a weakness.
I explain things kinda hard. I guess thats why Im not a teacher but I hope it gives ya some kind of idea.
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Clark
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It's just some low-level forced convection on the , likely to make a rendezvous with South America over the next 24hr. Nothing at the surface, just a large blob of convection. I wouldn't be worried about that, particularly given Franklin offshore and potential development in the Gulf later in the weekend.
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WeatherNut
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Here is a fantastic picture of the duststorm
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/NaturalHazards/natural_hazards_v2.php3?img_id=12979
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Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since
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TAZMAN
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Quote:
Here is a fantastic picture of the duststorm
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/NaturalHazards/natural_hazards_v2.php3?img_id=12979
I reposted another up top.... they are just awesome pictures!!
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Beaumont, TX
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I am interested in the wave in the Caribbean. If something develops in the Gulf what areas of the Texas coast might be affected?
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