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Archives >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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MikeCAdministrator
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Reged: Sun
Posts: 2956
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Franklin, the Little Storm that Could
      #44840 - Sat Jul 23 2005 07:36 AM

3:30pm Update

Franklin continues to become better organized, despite the central pressure remaining relatively high with the system. Remember that each storm and its environment are unique; a hurricane can form with a relatively high pressure if it is embedded in such an environment itself. The storm has the potential to become a hurricane later tonight or on Sunday.

Meanwhile, TD 7 has formed in the Bay of Campeche, with 30mph winds. The first full advisory package will be issued on the disturbance at 5p ET, with tropical storm watches likely for the Mexican coastline north of Punta El Lagarto. This system has the potential to become a weak tropical storm before making landfall in the next day or so; if it does so, it will be named Gert.

Original Update

Franklin is a small storm, nearly overshadowed by the western Caribbean disturbance earlier, it has remained around to confound.



The pattern around the storm has kept it at low Tropical Storm strength this entire time, and the steering around it still suggests it will head out to sea. However, if it holds off where it is for a while it will likely get split. With the lower level part shooting off to the northeast while the higher clouds hang where they are now, effectively splitting the system vertically. This would destroy itself as a tropical system.

It's still moving around, and the BAMM models still want to take it back, while everything else shoots it off to sea. Because of the shearing going on in the system, it's becomeing difficult to track where Franklin will go and what franklin will be when it gets there. (Either continuing as a tropical storm, or falling apart)

We'll continue to watch it over the weekend.

The Caribbean System in now around the Yucatan, and will eventually move back into the Gulf. At that time it has a window to strengthen. So we're watching that too.


Event Related Links
Melbourne, FL Long Range Radar Loop
StormCarib hurricane reports from observers in the Islands
Caribbean Island Weather Reports

Color Sat of Gulf
RAMSDIS high speed visible Floater of Storms

Tropical Storm Franklin
Floater Vis/IR Loop of Franklin with Storm Path Overlay
Animated Model Plot of Franklin
Model Plot of Franklin (Graphic from the South Florida Water Management District)
Franklin Spaghetti Model from boatus
Weather Underground Model Plots for Franklin
Google Map of Franklin plotted along side Jeanne from Last Year
Google Map of Franklin And Erin (1995)

Edited by Clark (Sat Jul 23 2005 03:43 PM)


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emackl
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Reged: Sat
Posts: 205
Loc: Indianapolis
Re: Franklin, the Little Storm that Could [Re: MikeC]
      #44844 - Sat Jul 23 2005 08:32 AM

Huh, check out the 8:am BAMM run. I know it's not the most accurate but this storm is confusing.
http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200506_model.html


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: Franklin, the Little Storm that Could [Re: MikeC]
      #44845 - Sat Jul 23 2005 08:46 AM

Good morning all. Thank you MikeC for the Franklin links at the bottom of the post.

What a droll morning: another great title for a new thread, everyone got their wish that Franklin would discuss Franklin ("Franklin...the storm...not the forecaster...has become a little better organized overnight ... It is quite possible that little or nothing will be left of Franklin...the storm...not the forecaster...in 2-3 days."), and visions of 'Lil Phil from the south (picture someone large like a linebacker) have faded into the night.

Maybe the 2005 season will also be remembered as the season with great opening lines in NHC discussions.

Seems like it's going to be a wait and see kind of weekend?

Here's to hoping the white noise level stays low ("What are the chances Franklin will hit Florida?" "I'm planning to go to the beach on Sunday and want to know if I should worry?" "Is it possible Franklin will hit Florida and cross the Gulf and go over my house located in the FL panhandle?" "What are the chances that Franklin will hit Florida, cross the Gulf, and then come and provide some much-needed rain to my back yard?" "What are the chances that Franklin will hit the Carolinas?" "Is it starting to move a little west?" "Looks like it hasn't moved at all" "Is it moving NE?" "Is Franklin going to follow the same path as Jeanne?" "I think Franklin will do a Charley").

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master


Reged: Tue
Posts: 423
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA 27.37N 80.24W
Re: Franklin, the Little Storm that Could [Re: MikeC]
      #44846 - Sat Jul 23 2005 08:49 AM

Morning Mike-

Is the Yucatan disturbance still projected to head into the GOM and threaten Northeast Mexico and Texas?

I'm also thinking that Franklin will soon split itself and that the southern portion will go on to Florida.

--------------------
________2014 Forecast: 10/4/1________

There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard


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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
"It's 1954 all over again" [Re: rmbjoe1954]
      #44847 - Sat Jul 23 2005 09:26 AM

quoth Joe B. on his trop. vid. this am.

quite an interesting little disco by JB. Despite the modeling evidence to the contrary, and the official NHC forecast, JB is sticking to his guns that Franklin will drift eastward and hang out underneath the building ridge, then make the 'jeanne-like' loop backwards towards florida/georgia; gotta give him this, he's sticking to his guns. i'm NOT ready to stick a fork in Franklin and send him to the fish yet, but i'd say that the only ones who need to worry about him are some bahamians, shipping interests, and maybe bermuda further down the road.

The Yucatan system is definitely showing signs of development as it departs the peninsula and gets into the GOM...can't say for sure whether this one is headed into mexico or the tex/mex border, but it should be Gert by the time it does landfall in a few days...whether it's TS gert or Hurricane Gert remains to be seen, but with the pattern and the GOM temps, it's just ripe for development.

i know it's been discussed here, but has anyone REALLY looked at the temps off the east coast? 80's as far north as Jersey...in JULY! even LI is well into the 70's and this is almost unheard of...this does NOT bode well for a potential cane coming north...not well at all...once "our" cane season opens for bizness in mid-August, you can be sure i'll be watching the tropics with more than a passing interest.

Finally, there's the "MDR" (i think that's what it's called - the mean development region') where CV storms coming off africa can really intensify---temps there are also way above normals...looks like, as if 2005 hasn't been busy enough already, we've got a potential 1995-type season ahead, numbers wise...busted forecasts will be the rule, not the exception.

anyhoo, sorry for the long post, but i may be heading out of town for the weekend and not back till sunday late afternoon or early evening...just wanted to get my $.02 in now if that is indeed the case.

loveta hear what some real mets think about the things i've just thrown about so casually

is it 1954 all over again?

1954

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
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Loc: Polk County, Florida
Re: "It's 1954 all over again" [Re: LI Phil]
      #44848 - Sat Jul 23 2005 09:57 AM

While the subject of white noise is going on I will predict that some one will eventually imply that Franklin could be another Floyd, another Andrew, another Hugo or another Erin ----again!, Jeanne has been talked to death. Meanwhile I was surprised to see how little apparent tropical shape that er uh "Franklin" has in the early sats visual and IR. I would wonder if he is already undergoing a mass weight loss program with subtropical type features, or if he is wasting away from from trough disease.

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.


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XLM
Unregistered




Re: "It's 1954 all over again" [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #44849 - Sat Jul 23 2005 10:20 AM

A lot more convection now, and it looks like moving south?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-wv-loop.html


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MaoMaster
Unregistered




Re: "It's 1954 all over again" [Re: LI Phil]
      #44850 - Sat Jul 23 2005 10:20 AM

Mebbe I missed something, LI Phil, but, why would you look at what has happened this year and ask if it is '1954'?? We have had three landfalling systems in the north Gulf and none in 1954 in the same area.....and not much else in the map matches what has happened yet...so, I don't get that.

Also..MDR= main development region.

Not busting your chops, just curious about your 'analog' choice.

Guppie--I love the 'saying' at the bottom of your post.

Looks like the Gulf system will go to Mx...and the ballot is out, all the way around (intensity as well as track) on Franklin.

We have had some great discos by TPC this year, haven't we! I love the Franklin one today, it is the best!

MM


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: "It's 1954 all over again" [Re: LI Phil]
      #44851 - Sat Jul 23 2005 10:21 AM

Quote:

is it 1954 all over again?



No, because it is 2005.

Sorry, I had to reply, even though I am very much not a met.

There are so many variables, that even if *all* weather conditions across a large region at one moment in time were similar to a moment in the past, because of the nature of chaotic systems, there would be no correlation to what would happen in the next moment and the next moment after that, much less for a period of succeeding days.

Molecules of air and water do not have a historical memory...they only respond to the forces around them at that moment.

While it makes sense to talk about generalities -- i.e. El Nino has a specific effect in general on overall hurricane development, it is not logical to reference a previous hurricane or a previous hurricane season and say that tomorrow will be like that.

Why mention 1954 anyway? Isn't it just because of the large number of deaths caused by Hazel -- something that would be rather unlikely considering that advance warnings of hurricanes has improved considerably since 1954. In other words, isn't it just a way to sensationalize and dramatize and cause anxiety (or perhaps a thrill depending on your nature), much in the same way the "New Orleans is doomed" scenario was brought up several times during Dennis' approach to the northern gulf coast.

JB is entertaining and fun to watch. I think this is mostly about entertainment and not science, and using a modicum of valid scientific knowledge to leverage into the realm of fantasy.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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LI Phil
User


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Re: "It's 1954 all over again" [Re: MaoMaster]
      #44852 - Sat Jul 23 2005 10:22 AM

Quote:

Mebbe I missed something, LI Phil, but, why would you look at what has happened this year and ask if it is '1954'??




um...if you actually took the time to read my post, you'd see that it was Bastardi who made the quote, not me.

and, yes, my bad, MDR = Main, net mean...need to proofread better

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA 30.00N 90.14W
Re: "It's 1954 all over again" [Re: LI Phil]
      #44853 - Sat Jul 23 2005 10:47 AM

>>Why mention 1954 anyway?

JB's analogs are 1954, 1933 and 1995 among others. There have been (or will be) elements of all three seasons in what turns into 2005 according to him. In this case, don't shoot the messenger, Lil Phil.

2c

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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Steve H1
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 289
Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
Re: "It's 1954 all over again" [Re: Margie]
      #44854 - Sat Jul 23 2005 11:09 AM

Yes I agree with you pretty much Margie. Dice and lottery balls do not remember what they did in the past, nor do they care. There is far more involved with tropics than statistics, and fewer constants, if any. Trying to isolate the constants over time to see how the variables affect them is the challenge. However, these parameters involving the tropics are quite random. El Nino can be an indicator of a less active Atlantic basin season, but not an absolute, particularly when figuring on how it affects our lives. Look at Andrew. El Nino - inactive season - devastating. On the other hand a season like 2005 - highly active - unpredictable - destructive. We like to categorize these things in nice buckets...1954, 1933, 1995, etc., based on similarity. Yes high SSTs, neutral ENSO, high salinity?...thermocline, but different set of circumstances. It is not 1954, it is 2005, and we're in a cycle of increased hurrricane activity. If JB can find the magic teleconnection to where these cyclones will landfall here in the states, God bless him. But really the only real constant we live with IS change. Random thoguhts - now back to painting - Cheers!!

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Biowatch
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 19
Loc: Massachusetts
Re: "It's 1954 all over again" [Re: LI Phil]
      #44855 - Sat Jul 23 2005 11:09 AM

Thanks for the link to the 1954 season, Phil......I hate to admit it, but I actually remember this year as a kid........and think that's where my interest began....
Also, just an interesting note.....I got a call from the Yucatan yesterday with questions as to what was going on there....."Were they getting a hurricane that no one had told them about?" Apparently they had some winds that were higher than the ones predicted with Emily in some areas...(39 mph)


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Steve H1
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 289
Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
Re: "It's 1954 all over again" [Re: LI Phil]
      #44856 - Sat Jul 23 2005 11:16 AM

Hey Phil, I see no JB video online this morning. Did he do one?? I think you may have been looking at Fridays, unless maybe you subscribe for his service.

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ShanaTX
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Reged: Mon
Posts: 226
Loc: Texas 30.40N 97.64W
Re: "It's 1954 all over again" [Re: LI Phil]
      #44857 - Sat Jul 23 2005 11:18 AM

Hi LI Phil

Glad to see you're not fixin to stick a fork in Franklin - he might not like that much (the forecaster, not the TS)

As far as the TS Franklin (someone asked me today when TS Elliot was gonna show up... eek)

The 11 am advisory is out

Quote:

Tropical Storm Franklin Advisory Number 9

Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on July 23, 2005

............................................................................

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph...110 km/hr...with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible during the next 24 hours...and Franklin could become a hurricane later today or on Sunday.




Who'd a thunk it? Another system that just keeps going ... and going... even when it looks kaput..

'shana


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MikeG
Unregistered




Re: "It's 1954 all over again" [Re: Steve H1]
      #44858 - Sat Jul 23 2005 11:18 AM

Good 11am discussion, Franklin is most likely a Hurricane in a very small region near the center. Like i said last night don't take your eyes off franklin just yet. He took on the shear on the west side and held together, (i think in part to that weak upper level feature from last night). Just saw recon had 62kts fl winds at 29.0n 74.8w.... also estimated SFC winds at obs 7 around 30kts.

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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: "It's 1954 all over again" [Re: Steve H1]
      #44859 - Sat Jul 23 2005 11:23 AM

Well I wasn't going to bring it up, but -- what is the deal with the whole "teleconnection" thing? I guess the whole underlying mystical aspect escaped me. Here is Japan, and the Pacific, and this is like the Caribbean, and here's an island, this is like the Bahamas...it reminded me of Rock Hudson using sugar cubes and a napkin to describe his mythical ranch house to Doris Day in "Pillow Talk." He (JB, not the Rock) built up this analogy, and then didn't really go anywhere with it. Well, yes, an ocean here is an ocean there, and an island here is an island there, and there happens to be a tropical cyclone here and a tropical storm there. The only conclusion that leads you to is that it is hurricane season in both places, not exactly news.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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MikeG
Unregistered




Re: "It's 1954 all over again" [Re: MikeG]
      #44860 - Sat Jul 23 2005 11:23 AM

take a look at Water Vapor, having a time thinking he will catch the first ride out to see. Look over florida, see the spin? (UL-feature moving south between systems)

sat shot


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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker


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Re: "It's 1954 all over again" [Re: Margie]
      #44861 - Sat Jul 23 2005 11:30 AM

I guess if you want to pay for JB's forecasts, that's your choice. I'd rather buy something more useful with my money.

Franklin is a non even for Florida.

Like LI Phil said, we're getting ready to ramp things up for the "real" hurricane season beginning in a few weeks. I agree that the air and water temps are very warm. Should be interesting.

Everyone enjoy the weekend.


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MikeG
Unregistered




Re: "It's 1954 all over again" [Re: Wxwatcher2]
      #44862 - Sat Jul 23 2005 11:34 AM

URNT12 KNHC 231531
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 23/15:13:20Z
B. 29 deg 28 min N
075 deg 02 min W
C. 850 mb 1456 m
D. 45 kt
E. 38 deg 032 nm
F. 158 deg 039 kt
G. 037 deg 029 nm
H. 1002 mb
I. 19 C/ 1521 m
J. 21 C/ 1515 m
K. 17 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/ 8
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF304 0406A FRANKLIN OB 16
MAX FL WIND 62 KT SE QUAD 13:44:30 Z


Pressure up 1 mb, but winds look to increased some with convection


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