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News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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damejune2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 237
Loc: Torrington, CT
Re: i was kidding [Re: Ryan]
      #45666 - Wed Jul 27 2005 10:45 PM

Ok, sorry for upsetting you

-- Let's not tell others what they feel..

Edited by RedingtonBeachGuy (Thu Jul 28 2005 08:14 AM)


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damejune2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 237
Loc: Torrington, CT
Re: i was kidding [Re: damejune2]
      #45667 - Wed Jul 27 2005 10:47 PM

Truce now?? Face it, we are all targets of storms whether it be blizzards in your area or tropical stuff down here. Sorry about the money comments, but you touched a nerve with me too!!!!

Lets move on.

--------------------
Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)


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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 944
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
Re: i ws kidding [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #45669 - Wed Jul 27 2005 10:49 PM

Well, there is a bit of a difference between storms striking Florida and storms striking New England. Namely the forward speed. If the NE were to be hit by a storm moving at 10 - 15 MPH rather than the usual 25 - 30 MPH at that latitude, the damage would be devastating. It isn't a function so much of the max winds, but of the duration of those winds. Not down playing storms hitting NE, just comparing 2 - 3 hours of damaging winds to the 4, 6, or 8 hours experienced at this latitude.

--------------------
Michael

PWS


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Ryan
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 281
Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
Re: 92L [Re: Ryan]
      #45670 - Wed Jul 27 2005 10:49 PM

so anyway, what do people think has the greater potential for developement 92L or 93L?

--------------------
2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.

Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
Re: 92L [Re: damejune2]
      #45671 - Wed Jul 27 2005 10:51 PM

There's a chance that the storms will continue west underneath the ridge, or there's a chance that they will recurve around its perophery. It can be the difference of 10m in height in the mid-levels that determines whether a storm recurves or not, or it could be whether or not a trough comes through at the right time to pick up a storm. We can't tell any of those well in advance of the storm -- and the models don't always get those and other factors precisely correct, as we saw last year -- so to say that any particular area is moreso under the gun than any other, beyond what climatology might suggest, isn't prudent.

Based upon a sheer increase in activity, however, everywhere is moreso under the gun than normal. Research is ongoing to try to see if the probabilities of a particular area being hit or not can be determined, but that science is in its infancy and just experimental at this point. Anyone who says that a certain area will or will not see a storm this season is lying, because they do not know. You can say that there is an increased likelihood of a storm potentially affecting your area, based upon an overall average of the steering currents & storm activity, but that's about as far as we can go right now.

What Bastardi, Gray, and others are doing in reality follows along these lines, though I don't know if I'd go so far as to assign points to various reasons as does JB. But, the way they get interpreted and occasionally presented leads many to think that this is not the case -- it's here where some in the media create a large disconnect between fiction and reality for the sake of ratings & readership. Read everything you can out there, but unless you see it rooted in scientific research (past, current, or ongoing), take it with a grain of salt.

With all of that said...I think everyone here needs to tone down the banter just a little bit. There's no sense in having a flame war go on. Feel free to express your opinions, share your ideas, talk about the storm -- talk about whatever! -- but please do be considerate of others here when doing so. It's one thing to disagree over politics or your favorite baseball team or how many coins I have in my hand; it's another to be talking about life & death when it comes to these storms in mere wishes.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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Old Sailor
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 293
Loc: Florida
Re: 92L [Re: damejune2]
      #45673 - Wed Jul 27 2005 10:51 PM

Please note I said..Florida could be under the gun for a Cat 3 or 4. I didn't say it would be for sure, also agree that SC and NC maybe be subject to the same type of Hurricane.... And the Gulf is not out of the woods yet... places like Eastern North Texas, La. and Tampa Bay but feel they would more then likely see a Cat 2.

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Justin in Miami
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 269
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
Re: storm surge? [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #45674 - Wed Jul 27 2005 10:53 PM

Although it could be a safe place...the City would kick you out.

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Ryan
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 281
Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
Re: 92L [Re: Clark]
      #45675 - Wed Jul 27 2005 10:53 PM

sorry captain

--------------------
2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.

Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back


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Ryan
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 281
Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
Re: storm surge? [Re: Justin in Miami]
      #45677 - Wed Jul 27 2005 10:55 PM

dont mean to go rambling on bout LI but int he case of a cat 2 hurricane hiting southern LI, can there still be storm surge from the LI sound to the north shore?

--------------------
2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.

Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back


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Major7
Weather Watcher


Reged: Wed
Posts: 37
Loc: Hollywood, FL 26.02N/80.20W a...
Re: i was kidding [Re: damejune2]
      #45678 - Wed Jul 27 2005 11:00 PM

New Yorkers give little thought to hurricanes since Long Island is so far from the warm, tropical oceans that feed hurricanes. However, according to the 1984 Hurricane Damage Mitigation Plan by the Long Island Regional Planning Board, several hurricanes and 15 tropical storms have made landfall in this area since 1886. According to historical record, there have been five "epic hurricanes" (Category 3 or higher on the Saffir Simpson Scale) in the years 1938, 1893, 1821, 1815, and 1635 (Hughes).
from http://www2.sunysuffolk.edu/mandias/38hurricane/hurricane_climatology.html

So, you know, it doesn't really matter how often a threat, it only takes one devastating event to change the lives of many. Long Island, like Florida and the rest of the coastal areas of the United States have had such a population growth that a dramatic storm now impacts millions.

--------------------
My experiences:
Betsy 1965~New Orleans (my first)
Alicia 1983~Texas; Opal 1995~Georgia;
Frances & Jeanne 2004~Florida;
Dennis, Eye of Katrina, Eyewall of Wilma~Florida 2005


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ShanaTX
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 226
Loc: Texas
Re: 92L [Re: Old Sailor]
      #45679 - Wed Jul 27 2005 11:02 PM

Quote:

Eastern North Texas,




FYI ... no such place exists on the Texas coast (Technically that would be places like Tyler, Palestine and Texarkana ... all well inland)

If you're talking about the Texas coast from Houston/Galveston north... that's normally referred to as the "Upper Texas coast"

'shana


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nowhammies
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 19
Loc: Orlando, FL
a silly question about 93 models [Re: Major7]
      #45680 - Wed Jul 27 2005 11:05 PM

Okay - speaking of things JK

I was looking at the models of the92 & 93 - 93 has a confusing thing on it - one of the models - one I dont hear many people talk about (which may be related to the probem) has the storm making a rather sharp turn to the north. Like it is gonna run into a wall.

What would be there that would be strong enough to make that happen that abruptly?


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Ryan
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 281
Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
Re: a silly question about 93 models [Re: nowhammies]
      #45681 - Wed Jul 27 2005 11:06 PM

good question

can i have the link fo the models you were looking at?

--------------------
2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.

Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back

Edited by Ryan (Wed Jul 27 2005 11:07 PM)


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ShanaTX
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 226
Loc: Texas
Re: a silly question about 93 models [Re: nowhammies]
      #45682 - Wed Jul 27 2005 11:06 PM

Quote:

What would be there that would be strong enough to make that happen that abruptly?




Bad data input?


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Ryan
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 281
Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
models [Re: ShanaTX]
      #45683 - Wed Jul 27 2005 11:09 PM

http://www.ourgallagherfamily.com/storm_image/92L/92L.html

look at that..dont you think thats a little to far north..and they have it intensifying in kts..what are peoples inputs on this

info apreciated

-Ryan

--------------------
2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.

Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back


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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
Re: models [Re: Ryan]
      #45684 - Wed Jul 27 2005 11:22 PM

If Long Island was about 400 miles south, it would be the most dangerous place in the world (outside of Bangledesh of course) for storms. Fact is, it isn't. And based on my understanding of plate-techtonics, it will never be. As noted above, the last epic storm was some 67 years ago. That's a lot of time. And while it's certainly possible that a major could hit up that way (has before, will again) in a given season, the dynamics required are pretty rare.

I agree with the "relax and enjoy the ride" scenario presented by Ryan. Frankly, I don't understand how people could be into the tropics and then act like a non-major would be the end of the world. I also understand that some people are paranoid by nature and drawn by their fears to storm forums. But the vast majority of us enjoy tropical storms and minimal canes despite the potential hazards and minor inconveniences they bring. I guess it's just part of being a freak of a different nature. But I'm more of a sitting duck than anyone on this forum, and the last thing I'm going to do is come down on anyone else for hoping to see some tropical action. JMO.

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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Ryan
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 281
Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
Re: models [Re: Steve]
      #45686 - Wed Jul 27 2005 11:30 PM

tanks steve, i agree with you

what do you hink about the 92L model i posted you freak of a different nature..haha

i go with whoever said this before

if you like on the east coast of the US your a sitting duck

--------------------
2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.

Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 828
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
Re: models [Re: Steve]
      #45687 - Wed Jul 27 2005 11:31 PM

Well,I remember seeing alot of boats on peoples lawns after Bob hit R.I.And being without power a few days.Also seen bulidings swept out to sea.And that was not that long ago.

--------------------

Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .


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DebbiePSL
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 151
Loc: Saint Marys Georgia
Re: 92L [Re: Ryan]
      #45688 - Wed Jul 27 2005 11:32 PM

Ryan- I for one feel like everyone has their own weather problems to deal with, here in Florida, Hurricanes- Your area Blizzards- California, wildfires, earthquakes, ect. Where I used to live we constantly had to deal with the threat of tornadoes. No matter where in the US we live Mother Nature is the one in control, and all we can do is try to better educate ourselves so that when something bad happens we are at least prepared. I value everyones ideas , suggestions, advice and knowledge. This board has been my salvation.

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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 828
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
Re: 92L [Re: DebbiePSL]
      #45689 - Wed Jul 27 2005 11:34 PM

Also the eye of Bob went right over Block Island,RI. with 105mph winds.

--------------------

Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .


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