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Archives >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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Shalafi
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 123
Loc: Altamonte Springs
Re: What is it? [Re: CaneTrackerInSoFl]
      #45583 - Wed Jul 27 2005 12:58 PM

Quote:

Not to be snobby, but isn't it a bit alarmist to be thinking every single thing of cloud formations this year is going to be a Tropical System?




Isn't it better to be expecting and ready than assume it's nothing? Besides, this is a site for weather hobbyists, who enjoy weather. This is the season to enjoy it so that's what's being done. *shrug*

--------------------
Bryan
What doesn't kill us only makes us stronger.
God bless
I know very litte about weather. I'm here to learn mostly but will post friendly replies now and then. So if you don't want to see non-weather comments ignore me now. Thanx!



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Kevin
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
Re: Watching..Waiting [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #45584 - Wed Jul 27 2005 12:58 PM

Quote:

Quote:

i have a feeling that one of the three waves wil develope by the close of the weekend


I think that is a good bet.But today I don't have to worry about any storms,and that is a good thing.Local tv here is saying the first wave should affect us here Sun or Mon,it what form?,That is the question.Anyone have any ideas about development on the first wave?




As Clark mentioned, the development of the first wave will likely be a slow process. The circulation associated with wave 1 (92L) is huge. I have noticed that there have been some popcorn showers developing around that broad circulation. Yesterday, there wasn't much of anything in that area. Perhaps we'll begin to see some modest development of 92L. I think that this wave may actually be a better candidate for development than the second wave.

Edited by Kevin (Wed Jul 27 2005 01:07 PM)


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D3m3NT3DVoRT3X
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 48
Loc: The Burg < FL
Re: Watching..Waiting [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #45585 - Wed Jul 27 2005 01:01 PM

all aboard choo choo! for JB's african wave train .. lol guy cracks me up

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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1096
Loc: fl
Re: Watching..Waiting [Re: D3m3NT3DVoRT3X]
      #45591 - Wed Jul 27 2005 01:37 PM

Joe B i have been watching for years. I watch him cause hes a Met.. and loves the weather. He picks out anything that the models show might pick up on and any thunderstorm areas so he cant be wrong if 1 does develop. Hes usually off by where storms make landfall cause he uses his landfall points to hope a storm goes there so he will be right. Im 1 who doesnt believe in the tele-connect. Thing is ridges might be the same in the teleconnect but there are diff sizes and shapes of ridges. Last example was with Franklin, Joe B tried to show why he thought Franklin was going west compared to the Typhoon in the Pacific. Thing again was the ridges were diff. Also he looked at the wrong system in the Pacific. He is generally right about 1/3 of the time of landfall within 100 miles of 3 days out.
I do watch him cause again I love the excitement he puts into the weather forecasting. I like some of his other ideas also. I would say its worth watching him also for entertainment in what he does. Overall I would say Joe B is a good guy and good tropical forecaster. I just differ on the teleconnection thoughts and he tries to get his systems to hit his charted areas for the season.
92L still should be a system to watch as it moves towards Puerto Rico by Saturday. I say Thurs thunderstorms will consolidate more and a plane might check it out on Friday if that happens. After moving into the SE bahamas by Sunday-Monday it will slow down. Too far in the future after that cause a trough will swing off the east coast and it might just meander there for a couple days.

scottsvb

Edited by scottsvb (Wed Jul 27 2005 01:41 PM)


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VolusiaMike
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 63
Loc: Ormond Beach, FL
Joe B [Re: scottsvb]
      #45592 - Wed Jul 27 2005 01:40 PM

Anybody else have Joe B's broadcast drop off in the middle? I get to the section where he asks about east coast storm history, then it stops....

Michael


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nl
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 207
Loc: nsb,fl
Re: Watching..Waiting [Re: scottsvb]
      #45593 - Wed Jul 27 2005 01:41 PM

can i get that jb link please?

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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1096
Loc: fl
Re: Watching..Waiting [Re: nl]
      #45594 - Wed Jul 27 2005 01:42 PM

Its on the front page here at the bottom,, just click on it.

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Big Red Machine
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 223
Loc: Polk City, FL
Re: Joe B [Re: VolusiaMike]
      #45595 - Wed Jul 27 2005 01:46 PM

yeah, I had the same problem, watched it twice just to make sure.

He's grown on me a bit. I hated him the first time I saw him. However, he is a bright guy and fun to watch. As Scott said, I don't always agree with his ideas, but I do take them into consideration.


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hurricane expert
Really Not an Expert


Reged: Thu
Posts: 105
Loc: florida
Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic [Re: MikeC]
      #45596 - Wed Jul 27 2005 02:01 PM

92L invest has 1011 mb pressure with 20knot winds it getting there to become our next tropical deppression it

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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA 30.00N 90.14W
Re: Joe B [Re: Big Red Machine]
      #45598 - Wed Jul 27 2005 02:02 PM

>>Anybody else have Joe B's broadcast drop off in the middle? I get to the section where he asks about east coast storm history, then it stops....

I had the same problem yesterday. Today, I clicked on Yahoo's link and switched my connection speed to low broad-band and got the whole thing. He basically just talks about 99, 95 and 54 and says that's where the linkups are with the remainder of the '05 season although the Gulf is hardly closed. He upped his landfall intensity totals beyond last year's actuals and +/- tripled his insurance damage to $12-18B.

The better video today was the tropical update. He's focusing on the ECMWF with 92L and believes it will be a Gulf storm. However, he also cautioned for two homebrew developments first, one in the NW Gulf (behind the front in E TX) and another off the mid-Atlantic between Franklin and the coast. What I could get was that TX was suspect as was NC/VA from those two systems.

As for 92L, ridging should be in place to carry it pretty far west. The question to me is (assuming development) whether it gets hung up in the Islands, hits Florida, or stays in the water and comes under the ridge into the Gulf. If it's the latter, it's probably another MS/AL/NWFL system unless ridging builds in to the north in which case it would be westbound.

The recap is to watch for the two homespun systems this weekend and look for 92L in the middle-of-next-week timeframe.

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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VolusiaMike
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 63
Loc: Ormond Beach, FL
Re: Joe B [Re: Steve]
      #45600 - Wed Jul 27 2005 02:14 PM

Thanks for the update. Like many of the others have said, I don't always agree with him, but he can provide some entertainment at times and you can occassionally grasp the opportunity to learn something.

Thanks again,

Michael


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adogg76
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 53
Re: Joe B [Re: Steve]
      #45601 - Wed Jul 27 2005 02:19 PM

I had been thinking of mentioing the front in E Texas(and northward). Looks pretty impressive for a land-lubber's storm! I know we usually talk about trops. in here...
Did the duststorm ever make it to FLA?? Did not think satellite imagery showed its arrival personally and also read a post that the conditions we have seen here is from haze and stagnant conditions. Will the dusting have any effect on these new waves??? Annnnnnnnd........possible wave forming in the last few frames just SSE of Franklin? Have heard that waves sometims form at the tail end of a coldfront i.e. Bonnie....I guess I should rephrase that thought......Is the small area of convection just forming N of Antilles and ahead of 92L and SSE of Franklin in a position that is good for development??


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Bloodstar
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 400
Loc: Georgia Tech 33.78N 84.40W
Franklin, the little storm thatwould not die [Re: adogg76]
      #45602 - Wed Jul 27 2005 02:35 PM

I'm sure it's going to turn to the north at some point, but I'd hate to see the 3 day and 5 day errors for this storm. Talk about killing your accuracy for the NHC!

Ah well, maybe Franklin will stick around long enough for the next storm to form so we have 29 days of storms in July (I dont think that's ever happened before...) The only good news I can think of, I can't visualize how the atlantic basic could get that much *more* active than it was in July, I mean, sure you could see a little more activity, but more than 7 - 8 storms in August would be utter madness... We'd never sleep again... heh

-Mark

--------------------
TD/TS/HU/MH
16/15/09/04 <- My prediction (2014 Predictions)
03/03/01/00 <- Year Totals

http://blog.bloodstar.org


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1096
Loc: fl
Re: Joe B [Re: adogg76]
      #45604 - Wed Jul 27 2005 02:41 PM

Well it made it to Florida but just made skys kinda hazzy, Duststorms dont inhibit tropical development, but duststorms are usually with dry air blowing off the dry areas of the saharra desert and move E-W with the prevailling flow. This happens generally as the N Africian trade winds move further north into the desert regions.

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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: Great Lakes 45.95N 84.55W
Re: Joe B [Re: scottsvb]
      #45605 - Wed Jul 27 2005 02:50 PM

Didn't really make it here, either. The northern extent was blocked by Franklin and the upper-low over the Atlantic, while the southern extent has become a little diffuse and is currently affecting Cuba and the Yucutan. You can see it clearly here: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/wavetrak/winds/m8g10split.html

The hazy conditions across Florida & the SE US have been caused by stagnant air in association with the large ridge of high pressure at upper-levels. When the air doesn't move and there is strong sinking motion at upper levels, you tend to see conditions such as this -- though it is more common in the western US than here. With no rain to help clean things out, it just sticks in the air, especially given the abundant low-level moisture still in place. It too can help create some nice sunsets, as we've seen lately. These conditions should clear out in the next couple of days with the movement of the ridge and approach of the front from the NW.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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Ron Basso
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 267
Loc: hernando beach, FL
Re: 92 L [Re: Clark]
      #45606 - Wed Jul 27 2005 02:56 PM

Interesting Discussion on 92L from NWS Melbourne this afternoon.

LOOKING ONCE MORE
INTO THE TROPICS...W/R/T THE DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE E/SE
...THE 12Z GFS SLOWS IT TO A CRAWL AS IT PASSES THE TURKS/CAICOS BY
00Z MON (SUN EVENING)...DRIFTS IT W/NW INTO CTRL BAHAMAS A FULL H48
LATER...THEN SHOWS A STALL/TREND TWD RECURVATURE WED. LAST NIGHTS
00Z ECM DROVE THE FEATURE WWD THROUGH THE FL STRAITS AND INTO THE
GOMEX...OWING TO ITS AFOREMENTIONED HIGHER MID LEVEL HEIGHTS NORTH
OF FL AS COMPARED TO THE GFS.

--------------------
RJB


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: Great Lakes 45.95N 84.55W
Re: Joe B [Re: Steve]
      #45607 - Wed Jul 27 2005 02:59 PM

I'll have to respectfully disagree with JB here. While the front is a rather strong one for this time of year, the southern end is rather diffuse and, given how the air mass is modifying on the southern side of the front, I just can't see anything coming of it. We can see storms form at the tail end of a front, but that's more of a September-November affair than a July/August one...just don't think it'll be strong enough to do it.

There's a weak trough tailing from Franklin, but anything in there is going to get caught up in the same flow Franklin will get caught up in and head out to sea. Alex formed offshore similar to that last year -- almost at this very time -- and while I'll go that far as well as say it's a more likely bet than the Gulf scenario, I'm still not too keen on it. The broad area of low-pressure projected across the SE US may help, but I don't see the energy being in the right place for anything to get going.

92L will be one to more impact the US than perhaps 93L -- at least sooner than 93L would -- but I think it's got a longer time ahead of it before it can get going. Like HF mentioned overnight, it's probably the north end that will get its act together, and even then the overall envelope is rather large. It might well get going, but it's a long-term affair.

93L on the other hand has, despite having its convective tops warm overnight, maintained a nice mid-level circulation, one that has some hints of working its way down to the surface in QuikSCAT imagery. While it might have more of a penchant to be a fish spinner than 92L, it's also (in my eyes) a more likely candidate to develop in the short-term. If the convective tops cool later today and the organization is maintained, I still believe we might see something classified by the end of the day tomorrow...or at least sometime Friday. Only time will tell, however...and that goes for all of them.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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Ron Basso
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 267
Loc: hernando beach, FL
Re: Joe B [Re: Clark]
      #45609 - Wed Jul 27 2005 03:12 PM

Clark, I agree with your assessment...92L probably will take a long time to become a named system..the latest GFDL doesn't bring it to TS status until it reaches the eastern bahamas...it's also a strange looking swirl of clouds..a big cyclonic sweep streching over 10 deg LAT..almost TUTT like now

--------------------
RJB


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: Great Lakes 45.95N 84.55W
Re: Joe B [Re: Ron Basso]
      #45613 - Wed Jul 27 2005 03:40 PM

Well, I wouldn't call it TUTT-like -- TUT cells are not that large and in the mid-upper levels. This wave is a predominantly low-level feature with a very large circulation envelope...it's got the pieces there, it just needs to put them together somehow. We'll have to see if it does -- or when it does.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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NONAME
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 136
Re: 92L [Re: Clark]
      #45615 - Wed Jul 27 2005 04:22 PM

27/1800 UTC 11.9N 32.5W TOO WEAK 92
27/1200 UTC 11.9N 31.8W TOO WEAK 92
27/1145 UTC 33.1N 69.1W T2.5/2.5 FRANKLIN
27/0530 UTC 12.5N 29.8W TOO WEAK 92

Can That really be 92L I thought it was west more that more closer to 93L check it out yourself at http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html


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