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Chill falls over the Atlantic as the official season heads towards close
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News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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Steve H1
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 309
Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
Re: 92L [Re: NONAME]
      #45618 - Wed Jul 27 2005 04:43 PM

HPC Discussion from this afternoon - ERN US snippet:

BY DAY 7...IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE
EARLY SEPTEMBER OVER THE INTERIOR AS FRESH SFC RIDGE BUILDS IN
FROM CANADA. THE MID ATL AND SOUTHEAST WILL BE WET...WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL FOCUSING JUST N OF POLAR FRONT DAYS 3 AND 4 FROM THE SRN
APPALACHIANS TO THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. AIRMASS CONVECTION IS
ANTICIPATED S OF FRONT...WITH AN INCREASE IN RAIN OVER THE FL
PENINSULA BY DAY 7 AS TROPICAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHEAST.


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MapMaster
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 138
Re: GERT [Re: Steve H1]
      #45619 - Wed Jul 27 2005 04:59 PM

Yes, GERT,,,her remnants are still intact and have reached The Gulf of Baja California....


MM


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AndyG
Weather Watcher


Reged: Mon
Posts: 35
Loc: Bradenton, FL
Re: 92L [Re: Steve H1]
      #45620 - Wed Jul 27 2005 05:02 PM

Atlantic Tropical Waves

92L Spaghetti plot

93L Spaghetti plot


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
Re: GERT [Re: MapMaster]
      #45621 - Wed Jul 27 2005 05:27 PM

Not exactly. Looking at 3-day satellite loops over the region, Gert's remnants dissipated over central Mexico, with the energy getting caught up in the trough passing across the central/eastenr US over a day ago. Any remnant of Gert that would be in the Pacific now would've come across a day or more ago.

What you see now in the Gulf of California is the remnants of a mesoscale convective complex that formed along the Mexican west coast last night. There was one the day before that, and the day before that as well; in fact, they are quite common this time of year and can occasionally spin-up mid-level vortices (as last night's might've done). No Gert remnants around, though.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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susieq
Weather Watcher


Reged: Fri
Posts: 49
Loc: Panhandle
Re: GERT [Re: Clark]
      #45622 - Wed Jul 27 2005 06:31 PM

According to Accuweather, because the Atlantic is so much warmer than usual, they are predicting that during the rest of the hurricane season, more tropical development will hit the east coast of Florida and the U.S rather than venture through the Gulf. What do you mets think?

--------------------
Gulf Breeze girl still not over Ivan


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Ryan
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 281
Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
Re: GERT [Re: susieq]
      #45626 - Wed Jul 27 2005 08:34 PM

im no met. but i agree..

--------------------
2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.

Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back


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Ryan
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 281
Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
Re: 92L [Re: AndyG]
      #45627 - Wed Jul 27 2005 08:40 PM

Quote:

Atlantic Tropical Waves

92L Spaghetti plot

93L Spaghetti plot




those are really good maps..thanks AndyG..i agree with those

i think 92L could develope into a minimal hurricane go rightt above the upper antilles andmake a path thru or a litle bit above the Bahamas.. and make a florida Georgie landfall.

As for 93L, i think it could develope but head a little further northward

but this is early for predictions..may as well throw one on the table

and i feel its safe to say this season a tropical system will hit:
-south eastern florida
-the bahamas
-carolinas
-northeast(South NJ-MASS)

--------------------
2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.

Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back


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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
Re: 92L [Re: Ryan]
      #45628 - Wed Jul 27 2005 08:45 PM

It appears according to the Bastardi video that The Carolina region is at the top of the high risk list for the rest of the season. I wonder if that article that came out earlier in the year really meant"The Case Against Florida" actually having a landfalling major hurricane this year. That does not mean that hurricanes won't get close enough to disturb the weather, just not close enough to the peninsula to aggravate Central Florida.

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.


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Ryan
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 281
Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
Re: 92L [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #45629 - Wed Jul 27 2005 08:47 PM

yea, i kinda feel bad for florida..well, i can't control the weather, i mean if you guys can wave your wands n send em away up here im sure well be happy to take a bullet..but nothing bad only cat 1 or 2


jk


.Ryan

--------------------
2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.

Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back


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pcola
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
Re: 92L [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #45630 - Wed Jul 27 2005 08:49 PM

I can certainly say that whoever wrote "The Case Agaainst Florida" having a landfalling major hurricane this year....was 100% wrong.

--------------------
Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!


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Hurricane Fredrick 1979
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 116
Loc: Mobile,Alabama
Re: 92L [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #45631 - Wed Jul 27 2005 08:57 PM

Quote:

It appears according to the Bastardi video that The Carolina region is at the top of the high risk list for the rest of the season. I wonder if that article that came out earlier in the year really meant"The Case Against Florida" actually having a landfalling major hurricane this year. That does not mean that hurricanes won't get close enough to disturb the weather, just not close enough to the peninsula to aggravate Central Florida.




Well guess since JB couldn't get a direct hit on New Orleans guess he would try his luck somewhere else hummmmm like up the East coast?


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Ron Basso
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 267
Loc: hernando beach, FL
Re: GERT [Re: susieq]
      #45632 - Wed Jul 27 2005 09:06 PM

Quote:

According to Accuweather, because the Atlantic is so much warmer than usual, they are predicting that during the rest of the hurricane season, more tropical development will hit the east coast of Florida and the U.S rather than venture through the Gulf. What do you mets think?




I'm not a MET but a scientist nonetheless..The Atlantic Ocean is not only warmer this year but has been warmer, relatively speaking since 1995. We are currently in the warm phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) which should last another 10 to 40 years. The North Atlantic ocean periodically alternates between warm and cool phases every two to five decades. The last cool phase lasted from 1970-1995 and there was a general lull in Atlantic Tropical Activity. So over the long term, the entire east coast and FL peninsula will see alot more tropical cyclone activity over the next 20 years or so.

As far as this year, not only are seas surface temps high, but very favorable atmospheric conditions also exist (i.e. low shear environment, lower pressure in the Carribean, no drought in the Sahel region of W Africa, etc.). The Cape Verde season, which usually starts in mid-August, will start earlier this year (now?) and will be quite active with numerous waves rolling off the coast of Africa. So in that respect, I'd tend to agree with Accuweather that the US east coast and FL is more vulnerable than the Gulf Coast. What will be the major player in this years landfalls will be the relative strength and position of the Bermuda High. Last year, this Ridge held strong and was positioned slightly north of the peninsula. This caused Frances and Jeanne to move W-NW into the east coast of FL rather than head north into the Carolinas or NE out to sea. Prior to last year, even though we had one of the most active periods in Atlantic Cyclone History (1995-2003), many of the storms ended up fish spinners because the Bermuda Ridge was not strong and large Troughs of Low Pressure anchored themselves along the east coast & deflected them out to sea.

--------------------
RJB


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: 92L [Re: Ryan]
      #45634 - Wed Jul 27 2005 09:14 PM

Quote:

yea, i kinda feel bad for florida..well, i can't control the weather, i mean if you guys can wave your wands n send em away up here im sure well be happy to take a bullet..but nothing bad only cat 1 or 2


jk


.Ryan




um...

nothin' personal but i'd rather not take a cat II bullet, but yer point is at the very least well taken...there are already too many "signs" pointing towards a NE (northeast, not New England) strike we don't need any jinxing our luck thus far...

we REALLY dodged bullets with bob, floyd and isabel; we may not be so lucky next time...lemme tell you, twas NO FUN after Gloria and that wasn't really much of a cane, specially compared to what Florida and the GOM took last year.

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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911
Registered User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1
Re: 92L [Re: LI Phil]
      #45635 - Wed Jul 27 2005 09:20 PM

My Family is heading to Ft Lauderdale are this weekend for 7 days. Are any of these a concern?

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Spoken
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Tue
Posts: 64
Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic [Re: danielw]
      #45636 - Wed Jul 27 2005 09:22 PM

Perhaps have a look at what seems related to the Atlantic TUTT. Water Vapor appears to be 'jetting out' near 72W, 27N. If so then perhaps at what speed would it appear to be moving?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/nwatl-wv-loop.html
(Jul 28 05, 13:15-00:15 UTC)

Also information on the TUTT itself can be found at
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/A10.html
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Landsea/bias/
(And thanks again, danielw, for responding)


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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 944
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
Re: 92L [Re: 911]
      #45637 - Wed Jul 27 2005 09:23 PM

I don't see a threat to Florida in the near future.

--------------------
Michael

PWS


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 828
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
storm surge? [Re: LI Phil]
      #45638 - Wed Jul 27 2005 09:28 PM

Question.I live 1.5 miles from Ft Laud beach.How high would the storm surge have to be to flood my first floor,taking into account the inter coastal.Just trying to figure out what cat storm ,would force me to leave my home.

--------------------

Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .


Edited by ftlaudbob (Wed Jul 27 2005 09:30 PM)


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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 944
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
Re: 92L [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #45639 - Wed Jul 27 2005 09:31 PM

What's your elevation above Mean Sea Level? That will give you a good indication. My guess is a strong cat 2, definitely cat 3. I live in mid-Pinellas county with a floor elevation of 19ft 3in above MSL and my evacuation zone corresponds to a cat 4 storm.

--------------------
Michael

PWS

Edited by MichaelA (Wed Jul 27 2005 09:34 PM)


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 828
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
storm surge? [Re: MichaelA]
      #45640 - Wed Jul 27 2005 09:37 PM

Not sure about exact level,But I know it is not much.If a cat 4 or 5 came in,about what water level would be in my house?

--------------------

Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .


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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 944
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
Re: storm surge? [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #45641 - Wed Jul 27 2005 09:47 PM

According to this: http://www.broward.org/disaster/epi00304.pdf if you are West of US 1 you're OK.

--------------------
Michael

PWS


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