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Archives >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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MikeCAdministrator
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Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic
      #45406 - Mon Jul 25 2005 10:50 PM

10:15PM Update 26.July
Two, perhaps three waves in the east Atlantic are worth watching, currently the middle one (referred to as 93L) is the most impressive looking, but any of the first two may form into another depression later into this week or the weekend.

Original Update
Tropical Storm Franklin continues to hold together this evening, moving nearly due east
after reforming its center. The current motion has forced the hurricane center to issue a tropical storm watch for Bermuda. The track still takes it away from the island, however, but the uncertainty with the system has been fairly high.

Gert made landfall as a Tropical Storm in Mexico, and is now raining more rain on an area already flooded by Emily.



Across the Atlantic, several tropical waves are making their way westward, including several over Africa now. Most will fall apart after leaving the coast, but a few may hold together and strengthen as it crosses the central atlantic ocean.

Nothing is expected to develop there for a few days at least.

The fact we are on the G storm name in July still amazes me.


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Event Related Links
Melbourne, FL Long Range Radar Loop
StormCarib hurricane reports from observers in the Islands
Caribbean Island Weather Reports

Color Sat of Gulf
RAMSDIS high speed visible Floater of Storms

Tropical Storm Franklin
Floater Vis/IR Loop of Franklin with Storm Path Overlay
Animated Model Plot of Franklin
Model Plot of Franklin (Graphic from the South Florida Water Management District)
Franklin Spaghetti Model from boatus
Weather Underground Model Plots for Franklin

Wave in East Atlantic (Aka 92L)
Animated Model Plot of Wave in Central Atlantic (92L)
Model Plot of Wave in Central Atlantic (92L) (Graphic from the South Florida Water Management District)

Wave in Even Further East Atlantic (Aka 93L)
Animated Model Plot of Wave in East Atlantic (93L)
Model Plot of Wave in East Atlantic (93L) (Graphic from the South Florida Water Management District)



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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic [Re: MikeC]
      #45407 - Mon Jul 25 2005 10:54 PM

This is a repost from the last thread.

TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2005 edited~danielw

FRANKLIN HAS UNDERGONE ANOTHER STRUCTURAL CHANGE THIS EVENING. A NEW VORTICITY CENTER APPEARED FROM UNDER THE CONVECTION EAST OF THE
MAIN CIRCULATION CENTER...AND IT AND THE MAIN CENTER ARE ROTATING AROUND EACH OTHER. THE CENTER TRACKED EARLIER IS CURRENTLY THE MOST INVOLVED WITH CONVECTION...SO THAT CENTER POSITION IS USED IN
THIS ADVISORY.
HOWEVER...THE APPEARANCE OF THE SECONDARY VORTICITY CENTER SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE OVERALL SYSTEM MAY REFORM
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...OR THAT A MEAN CIRCULATION CENTER MAY BECOME MORE APPROPRIATE FOR TRACKING. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT BASED ON SATELLITE ESTIMATES OF 35 KT FROM TAFB AND AFWA...AND 30 KT FROM SAB.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/260235.shtml

Edited by danielw (07/25/05 09:50 PM)


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jbmusic
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sat
Posts: 42
Loc: Bradenton, Fl
Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic [Re: danielw]
      #45411 - Mon Jul 25 2005 11:06 PM

Here is a link to a few pictures I took tonight from Manatee Beach The Sand storm has definitly made its way this far north as is apparent by our sunset tonight

http://www.pbase.com/b_bphotography/sand_storm_sunset

--------------------
Jenny Bradenton, Florida
www.bbdigitalphoto.com


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Major7
Weather Watcher


Reged: Wed
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Loc: Hollywood, FL 26.02N/80.20W a...
Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic [Re: jbmusic]
      #45412 - Mon Jul 25 2005 11:10 PM

Very nice. Thank you.

--------------------
My experiences:
Betsy 1965~New Orleans (my first)
Alicia 1983~Texas; Opal 1995~Georgia;
Frances & Jeanne 2004~Florida;
Dennis, Eye of Katrina, Eyewall of Wilma~Florida 2005


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joepub1
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Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic [Re: Major7]
      #45413 - Tue Jul 26 2005 12:14 AM

Give Franklin credit. He sure has kept us looking while doing, well, very little. He's stayed weak, covered very little ocean, and really bothered nobody. Now he's doing circles around himself . I think I worked with him once or twice. He can't even get a date in the North Atlantic, poor guy.

Wave just east of the islands must be related. It's puny little cloud tops are getting sheared, in part, by Franklin . No future for that kid either.
Wave between 30-40W has a shot. It's low is, well, low. But if that's good news for development, it's bad news in the long run, for if it does get wound up, it's going to be pretty far south, and the last last year or two these storms just won't go to the fish. It would also be close to, on top of, or past the islands, another not so good sign down the road for the rest of us. If I remember, the parade of storms ('95?) formed very early in the eastern Atlantic, and most curved out to the big pond. The longer these things wait, the harder it is to shake them off. The wave behind it at about 15W looks good, but everything just seems too close together in this area to make head and tails of it.

So other than Franklin, it seems it would be at least thursday before even an invest might be put out on something else. A couple of days. Isn't that what we said right after Emily got done with Mexico......


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic [Re: joepub1]
      #45414 - Tue Jul 26 2005 12:32 AM

Quote:

So other than Franklin, it seems it would be at least thursday before even an invest might be put out on something else. A couple of days. Isn't that what we said right after Emily got done with Mexico......




The latest GFS agrees with your summary.
In fact, it shows a 1012 mb Low near 10 N/ 41 W on Saturday at 06Z.
The main item in this area is the Low to the east of this.
Near 43 N/ 35 W. Depicted as a 1009mb Low with 2 closed isobars at the surface. 850mb Vorticity, Is picking this up, and I see a small reflection of the larger Low in the 500mb Vorticity product.

BTW- THis GFS round, dissipates Franklin well east of the DelMarVa Peninsula. Looks to be east of the "Benchmark", too.


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HanKFranK
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Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic [Re: danielw]
      #45417 - Tue Jul 26 2005 02:06 AM

franklin appears to be recovering this evening. some of the globals forecasted shear to decrease and they appear to have scored. the mid layer ridge nearby franklin is fluid and will probably result in an erratic path... globals track has been bending left over time and may end up being west of north for a spell.. but it's unlikely franklin will get back to within striking distance of the u.s. coastline. as a parting action it may deepen some now that environmental conditions are improving.. not likely to do more than that.
the wave between 30-35w has me worried. very good signature on this wave, and a development trend seems to be underway. if it develops the scenario most of the globals have for it is a rebuilt ridge near the east coast with a weakness digging behind it over the east atlantic, and another weakness retrograding over the southeast. GFS shows its signature arriving at the southeast u.s. around august 2nd/3rd. the trailing wave near 20w develops on some global runs but turns up near 40w into the eastern weakness (a deep layer cutoff low on several models, the type which may become a hybrid feature in its own right). less significant is the weak wave/trough near 55w currently which is sporadically blowing convection. probably not a development threat as things currently stand.
with the progged weakness in the eastern u.s., wave energy in the nw caribbean will have the tendency to collect, though no model is suggesting more than shortwave induced impulses over land. numerous tropical waves are advancing across africa... the sort of configuration which promises at least a tropical cyclone or two in the deep tropics east of the islands over the next week or two.. and potentially more.
HF 0705z26july


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Tazmanian93
Weather Master


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Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic [Re: HanKFranK]
      #45419 - Tue Jul 26 2005 05:55 AM

TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 20... CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT TUE JUL 26 2005

...CORRECTED TO DENOTE ABSORBED BY FRONTAL ZONE IN TABLE... THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER THAT HAD YESTERDAY BEEN EXPOSED HAS REMAINED INVOLVED WITH THE CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. DESPITE WHAT COULD OTHERWISE REFLECT INCREASED ORGANIZATION... FRANKLIN HAS NOT TAKEN ADVANTAGE OF THE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM PERIOD... AND CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEEN STEADILY WARMING. INCREASING NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND A FAIRLY DRY ENVIRONMENT ARE TAKING THEIR TOLL ON THE TROPICAL STORM. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 35 KT... AS SUPPORTED BY 06Z Dvorak INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30-35 KT... BUT CONVECTION WILL NEED TO REDEVELOP SOON IF THAT INTENSITY IS TO BE MAINTAINED FOR MUCH LONGER. FURTHER INTENSIFICATION SEEMS UNLIKELY... AND FRANKLIN MAY NOT REMAIN A TROPICAL STORM FOR AS LONG AS SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

A MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS PASSED BY WELL TO THE NORTH OF FRANKLIN...LEAVING THE TROPICAL STORM WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF WEAK STEERING. THE ANTICIPATED DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND THE TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST HAVE BOTH OCCURRED... PERHAPS EVEN A LITTLE SOONER THAN EXPECTED... AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 020/4. THIS SLOW GENERAL NORTHWARD MOTION MIGHT NOT CHANGE MUCH UNTIL THE NEXT STRONGER TROUGH AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT APPROACH THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. DYNAMICAL MODELS AGREE THAT THIS FEATURE WILL ACCELERATE FRANKLIN TO THE NORTHEAST BEGINNING IN ABOUT 36 HOURS... ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE MODELS HAVE SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE WEST COMPARED TO EARLIER. AS A RESULT OF THIS AND THE INITIAL MOTION... THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT REMAINS ON THE RIGHT SIDE
OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL SUITE. ON THIS TRACK FRANKLIN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ABSORBED BY THE APPROACHING FRONTAL ZONE IN 3 TO 4 DAYS.

--------------------
Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.

Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!

****************

Ed


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Cycloneye11
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Loc: San Juan,Puerto Rico
Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic [Re: HanKFranK]
      #45421 - Tue Jul 26 2005 07:16 AM

The wave emerging West Africa now is the one I am looking closely as it is at a low latitud and seems to have a spin to it.Safe to say that the CV season will very soon open it's gates.

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Hootowl
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Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic [Re: Cycloneye11]
      #45425 - Tue Jul 26 2005 09:00 AM

I just checked the Navy site and they are showing 92L invest.
Does anyone have info on this?

Thanks,
Dotty


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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 384
Loc: Port Orange, FL 29.11N 81.02W
Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic [Re: Hootowl]
      #45426 - Tue Jul 26 2005 09:11 AM

I think that is the wave around 40 in the atlantic

--------------------
Pam in Volusia County

According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6


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NewWatcher
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Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic [Re: NewWatcher]
      #45427 - Tue Jul 26 2005 09:14 AM

or I guess it is closer to 30 or 35

--------------------
Pam in Volusia County

According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6


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Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker


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Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic [Re: MikeC]
      #45428 - Tue Jul 26 2005 09:18 AM

What is the navy web site?

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LI Phil
User


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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic [Re: NewWatcher]
      #45429 - Tue Jul 26 2005 09:19 AM

looks more like 12N 28W or thereabouts

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker


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Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic [Re: Beaumont, TX]
      #45430 - Tue Jul 26 2005 09:20 AM

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_hom...es&DISPLAY=

--------------------
Pam in Volusia County

According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6


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LI Phil
User


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Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic [Re: Beaumont, TX]
      #45431 - Tue Jul 26 2005 09:20 AM

Quote:

What is the navy web site?




Navy Site

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 384
Loc: Port Orange, FL 29.11N 81.02W
Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic [Re: LI Phil]
      #45432 - Tue Jul 26 2005 09:21 AM

yes i was just looking at that closer, seems a sort of circulation is about
12N 28W. was trying to match that up with clark's blog from early this a.m.

--------------------
Pam in Volusia County

According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6


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Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser
Weather Hobbyist


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Loc: Deltona, FL 28.92N 81.22W
Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic [Re: NewWatcher]
      #45433 - Tue Jul 26 2005 09:28 AM

What/who is Clark's blog? Still learning here..........

--------------------
I survived Jeanne, Charley, and Frances


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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker


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Loc: Port Orange, FL 29.11N 81.02W
Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic [Re: Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser]
      #45434 - Tue Jul 26 2005 09:30 AM

Clark is one of the Mets here... On the top left of this page it says in the list....Met Blogs
click it and read the first one

--------------------
Pam in Volusia County

According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6


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Katie
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 167
Loc: Winter Haven, FL
Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic [Re: NewWatcher]
      #45435 - Tue Jul 26 2005 09:54 AM

Getting ready for the shuttle, just thankful Franklin stayed away to allow the launch. Almost a half an hour to go.

Kind of hazy here today. Not the norm. Anyone in Polk seeing it other than me? Wondering if it has anything to do with that sand...didn't think we would get any affects but, it is just a strange haze when you look towards the sun's direction. To the west it is clear blue skies.

Looks like an awesome day for a launching.


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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master


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Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic [Re: Katie]
      #45436 - Tue Jul 26 2005 10:01 AM

I think we are seeing the effects of the sand, and pollution and we did not have a rain this past 24 hours.

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.


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MadDog
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 51
Loc: DeBary, Florida
Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #45437 - Tue Jul 26 2005 10:06 AM

Is there a good website to follow the lift off??

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Hootowl
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
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Loc: New Port Richey, Fl 28.27N 82.65W
Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic [Re: MadDog]
      #45438 - Tue Jul 26 2005 10:08 AM

www.cbsnews.com has a live stream now. I assume they will also show the lift off.

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joepub1
Storm Tracker


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Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #45439 - Tue Jul 26 2005 10:13 AM

Invest 92L was at 8.5N 31W at 8AM. I think they put out this invest to make fun of me (see above post from last night: a couple of days!!). Numerical models make nothing out of it, run it into South America as nothing. It even looks like nothing. I swear that area is between two waves. Go figure.....

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Katie
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 167
Loc: Winter Haven, FL
Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic [Re: joepub1]
      #45440 - Tue Jul 26 2005 10:14 AM

www.nasa.gov

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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker


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Loc: Port Orange, FL 29.11N 81.02W
Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic [Re: joepub1]
      #45441 - Tue Jul 26 2005 10:18 AM

Quote:

I swear that area is between two waves. Go figure.....




I was thinking the same thing, which is why i couldnt tell exactly where it was according to the Navy.

and now they are saying 8.5 and 39...?? lol

--------------------
Pam in Volusia County

According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6


Edited by NewWatcher (Tue Jul 26 2005 10:22 AM)


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LI Phil
User


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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic [Re: NewWatcher]
      #45444 - Tue Jul 26 2005 10:35 AM

25/0530 UTC 14.0N 28.3W TOO WEAK 92

granted, this was at 5:30 zulu time, but 14/28 seems reasonable; right now doesn't look like much, but we'll see what the TWO sez...

i'm a little more impressed by the wave trailing 92L just coming africa...it's awfully far south though:

East Atlantic WV Loop

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Katie
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 167
Loc: Winter Haven, FL
Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic [Re: LI Phil]
      #45445 - Tue Jul 26 2005 10:43 AM

Not to talk a bout the launch but,.. never ever had a problem seeing it clearly in the past - couldn't see anything today except a cloud of dust. I am so disappointed. Even had my video camera with me. I should have just driven over there. Darn that cloud of dust.

back to Franklin.


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


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Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic [Re: Katie]
      #45447 - Tue Jul 26 2005 10:49 AM

Saw it ok from where I am along 436 in Casselberry. It did go behind a cloud where we lost it, but before that it was clear.

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Big Red Machine
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Loc: Polk City, FL
Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic [Re: Katie]
      #45448 - Tue Jul 26 2005 10:51 AM

Just moved to Polk Co from far east Orange where we could always see it very clearly, so I was a little disappointed today. Neighbor said they can typically see it, so I guess it was just a little too cloudy today. Maybe next time...

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hurricane expert
Really Not an Expert


Reged: Thu
Posts: 105
Loc: florida
Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic [Re: MikeC]
      #45449 - Tue Jul 26 2005 10:53 AM

I saw the space shuttle it was beautiful very nice view from orlando everything worked out

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FlaMommy
Storm Tracker


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Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic [Re: hurricane expert]
      #45451 - Tue Jul 26 2005 11:01 AM

any photos anyone would like to share with me so i can put it in my daughters scrap book:) thanks becky

--------------------
"Haven't thought of a witty one lately"


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Katie
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 167
Loc: Winter Haven, FL
Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic [Re: FlaMommy]
      #45452 - Tue Jul 26 2005 11:21 AM

Becky - I will PM you...

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AndyG
Weather Watcher


Reged: Mon
Posts: 35
Loc: Bradenton, FL 27.47N 82.53W
Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic [Re: LI Phil]
      #45453 - Tue Jul 26 2005 11:29 AM

LI Phil, I'm with you on that one just coming off the coast behind 92L. It does look impressive.

By the way, couldn't see the shuttle on the West coast of FL either.

Edited by AndyG (Tue Jul 26 2005 11:30 AM)


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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
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Loc: 25.63N 80.33W
Models [Re: MikeC]
      #45455 - Tue Jul 26 2005 11:51 AM

Weird, the FSU model is showing a cyclone developing north of the Leewards and making landfall in Cuba, then another forming right behind it, followed by yet another one from the wave that just came off the African coast.

--------------------
Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005



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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 384
Loc: Port Orange, FL 29.11N 81.02W
Re: Models [Re: CaneTrackerInSoFl]
      #45456 - Tue Jul 26 2005 11:52 AM

It is also showing something in the northern gulf that runs across florida, not sure what that is, but it shows up on the 850 vort

--------------------
Pam in Volusia County

According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6


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Steve H1
Storm Tracker


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Posts: 289
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Re: Models [Re: CaneTrackerInSoFl]
      #45457 - Tue Jul 26 2005 11:56 AM

Lots of Waves - Model confusion. The Invest area is a huge wave that I believe will develop over the next few days as it heads toward a more favorable environment. These waves are fairly close together, so the models may be having some difficulty discerning their proximity and development. The tropics are going to kick into gear again.

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Major7
Weather Watcher


Reged: Wed
Posts: 37
Loc: Hollywood, FL 26.02N/80.20W a...
Re: Models [Re: Steve H1]
      #45459 - Tue Jul 26 2005 12:06 PM

So, when someone makes a statement using a phrase like "92L. Invest" what does each part of the statement mean? Thanks.

--------------------
My experiences:
Betsy 1965~New Orleans (my first)
Alicia 1983~Texas; Opal 1995~Georgia;
Frances & Jeanne 2004~Florida;
Dennis, Eye of Katrina, Eyewall of Wilma~Florida 2005


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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker


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Re: Models [Re: Major7]
      #45460 - Tue Jul 26 2005 12:13 PM

Quote:

So, when someone makes a statement using a phrase like "92L. Invest" what does each part of the statement mean? Thanks.




92L Means Investigation 92 in the Atlantic. The numbers cycle between 90-99. Invest means investigation. Thats it.

--------------------
Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005



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hurricane expert
Really Not an Expert


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Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic [Re: MikeC]
      #45461 - Tue Jul 26 2005 12:15 PM

We might have to keep an eye on something next week here in florida computer models bring something intersting by the bahamas by the weekend and the starting of next week.

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LI Phil
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92L Runs [Re: CaneTrackerInSoFl]
      #45462 - Tue Jul 26 2005 12:16 PM



--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Major7
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Re: Models [Re: CaneTrackerInSoFl]
      #45463 - Tue Jul 26 2005 12:22 PM

Very good. The number part had me stumped. Now, to dig a little further...
Is there any reason why they only use the numbers 90-99?

--------------------
My experiences:
Betsy 1965~New Orleans (my first)
Alicia 1983~Texas; Opal 1995~Georgia;
Frances & Jeanne 2004~Florida;
Dennis, Eye of Katrina, Eyewall of Wilma~Florida 2005


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Big Red Machine
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Re: 92L Runs [Re: LI Phil]
      #45464 - Tue Jul 26 2005 12:25 PM

Phil, I believe that model run had the incorrect initialization

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CaneTrackerInSoFl
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Re: 92L Runs [Re: Big Red Machine]
      #45465 - Tue Jul 26 2005 12:26 PM

As is often true with open waves. Those models initialize it as a weak system. We will have to wait and see as the models initialize it better.

--------------------
Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005



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hurricane expert
Really Not an Expert


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Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic [Re: MikeC]
      #45467 - Tue Jul 26 2005 01:28 PM

Tropical storm Franklin look like it heading more west than north east

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LI Phil
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Re: 92L Runs [Re: Big Red Machine]
      #45468 - Tue Jul 26 2005 01:31 PM

Quote:

Phil, I believe that model run had the incorrect initialization




i believe you're correct...

GIGO...plain and simple

--------------------
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scottsvb
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Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic [Re: hurricane expert]
      #45469 - Tue Jul 26 2005 01:32 PM

Those tropical models are useless......Stay with the globel models. GFS,Ukmet,Nogaps and Canadian ( at times). The wave near 37W will develop more in the next couple days as it will move over warmer water. Expect it to reach the leeward islands in 3-4 days.

scottsvb


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Jamiewx
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NASA Analyzing Video Of Loose Shuttle Piece [Re: scottsvb]
      #45470 - Tue Jul 26 2005 02:01 PM

Sorry for off-topic post mods, i figured this was important, please move if needed.

NASA Analyzing Video Of Loose Shuttle Piece


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DaViking
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Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic [Re: AndyG]
      #45471 - Tue Jul 26 2005 02:32 PM

Sorry off topic.

Quote:

By the way, couldn't see the shuttle on the West coast of FL either.




I saw it quite easily up here in Crystal River. Being this far away i didn't see the shuttle its self, but clearly saw the trail and flame. It was really cool.

--------------------
Lived in Florida 29 years and have never been in a hurricane. I lived in Miami in 1992, but was out of country. Sorry Miami. Then moved north in 1999. again, sorry Miami.


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tpratch
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Re: NASA Analyzing Video Of Loose Shuttle Piece [Re: Jamiewx]
      #45476 - Tue Jul 26 2005 02:54 PM

I love it when newscasters/press get so sensational.

It's not a loose piece from the shuttle - it's the same foam that shed last time and NASA expected shedding this time. The most important fact is that it did not hit the Shuttle itself.

Sorry for the off-topic reply, but I really dislike how media grabs a hold of a tiny, insignificant event and then dresses it up like it's the second coming...


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Old Sailor
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Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic [Re: scottsvb]
      #45477 - Tue Jul 26 2005 03:08 PM

It will be interesting to see what effect the Dust and Dry area has on TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 39W/40W. There is about 800 miles of this dust area for the wave to travel thru.

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LI Phil
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Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic [Re: Old Sailor]
      #45478 - Tue Jul 26 2005 03:20 PM

Hey, Old Sailor!

Comment ca va?

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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WXMAN RICHIE
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Wave [Re: Old Sailor]
      #45479 - Tue Jul 26 2005 03:22 PM

Miami is hyping up a wave already, weird, what do they know that we don't?

DISCUSSION...BY THE WEEKEND THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS OUT ABOUT 40W TODAY WILL BE COMING INTO THE PICTURE AND HELPING TO SWITCH THE FLOW TO EASTERLY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND BUT REGARDLESS OF ITS POSITION IT WILL AT LEAST SWITCH THE FLOW TO EASTERLY.

MARINE...WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT BY
THE WEEKEND DEPENDING ON THE TROPICAL WAVE WE COULD SEE SOME HIGHER WINDS.

--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.

Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4


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CaneTrackerInSoFl
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Re: Wave [Re: WXMAN RICHIE]
      #45480 - Tue Jul 26 2005 03:26 PM

I don't know how saying the flow will be switching easterly is hyping it up.

--------------------
Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005



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WXMAN RICHIE
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Re: Wave [Re: CaneTrackerInSoFl]
      #45481 - Tue Jul 26 2005 03:43 PM

Usually 4-5 days plus in advance they just mention the possibility of a wave nearing the area and that is all. They don't usually mention the uncertainty of the strength of a wave that far in advance or that winds may be higher. I think it is because they are believing in the models possibly developing it more than just a wave.

--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.

Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4


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Old Sailor
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Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic [Re: LI Phil]
      #45482 - Tue Jul 26 2005 03:47 PM

Hi LL Phil:

As for any Comments just a gut feel here, that it will hidden the wave from developing soon, guess a wait and see as to how long it takes if it does to develop.Time will tell Phil.

Old Sailor


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MapMaster
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Re: UH, Franklin heads W (wnw) [Re: Old Sailor]
      #45483 - Tue Jul 26 2005 04:29 PM

Last few hours, plus blow up of convection, now calming down.

Note Bastardi fans: west mvt. I thought it was a loop at first....


MM


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NONAME
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Re: 92L [Re: Old Sailor]
      #45484 - Tue Jul 26 2005 04:30 PM

92L I'm not sure but it looks like it is organizing anyone else think the same thing? Also will that wave coming off of african limit devlopment and devlop on it own or could they both devlop?

Edited by NONAME (Tue Jul 26 2005 04:31 PM)


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Old Sailor
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Re: UH, Franklin heads W (wnw) [Re: MapMaster]
      #45485 - Tue Jul 26 2005 04:40 PM

Read 5 PM Tropical Discussion ........ Only 79 years old but have been to sea for 46 yrs, just an old sailor here.

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HURRICANELONNY
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Re: Wave [Re: WXMAN RICHIE]
      #45487 - Tue Jul 26 2005 04:56 PM

How is the wave at 40w going to be around Miami by this weekend???

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damejune2
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Re: Wave [Re: HURRICANELONNY]
      #45488 - Tue Jul 26 2005 05:00 PM

It's not, you must have misunderstood.....do not worry.

--------------------
Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)


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CaneTrackerInSoFl
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Looks like [Re: MikeC]
      #45489 - Tue Jul 26 2005 05:04 PM

The models may be picking the wave up better now:

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_92.gif

--------------------
Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005



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ShanaTX
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Re: Looks like [Re: CaneTrackerInSoFl]
      #45490 - Tue Jul 26 2005 05:11 PM

The yellow plotline is one I do not want to see happen!

Those models keep changing though as more info is put in, correct?

'shana


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damejune2
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Re: Looks like [Re: ShanaTX]
      #45491 - Tue Jul 26 2005 05:15 PM

Can you give me the link you are using for the models?

--------------------
Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)


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damejune2
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Re: Looks like [Re: damejune2]
      #45492 - Tue Jul 26 2005 05:16 PM

I got it from above post...sorry!

--------------------
Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)


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cruise182
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Re: Looks like [Re: ShanaTX]
      #45493 - Tue Jul 26 2005 05:17 PM

Sorry, New here.....do the colors represent possible tracks?

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CaneTrackerInSoFl
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Re: Looks like [Re: cruise182]
      #45494 - Tue Jul 26 2005 05:18 PM

Quote:

Sorry, New here.....do the colors represent possible tracks?



They represent each model that SFWMD puts on their model maps.

--------------------
Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005



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cruise182
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Re: Looks like [Re: CaneTrackerInSoFl]
      #45495 - Tue Jul 26 2005 05:18 PM

Thanks!!

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HURRICANELONNY
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Re: Wave [Re: damejune2]
      #45496 - Tue Jul 26 2005 05:20 PM

The Miami discussion says the wave located around 40w will change are flow to the east this weekend. The wave is about 2800 miles away. So I don't know what the heck the NWS is talking about.

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Old Sailor
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Re: Wave [Re: HURRICANELONNY]
      #45497 - Tue Jul 26 2005 05:30 PM

The Wave to really watch is the Wave by CV, this one shows the most promise and will not be effective by the dust cloud.

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Beaumont, TX
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Re: Wave [Re: Old Sailor]
      #45500 - Tue Jul 26 2005 05:50 PM

What is CV?

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NewWatcher
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Re: Wave [Re: Beaumont, TX]
      #45501 - Tue Jul 26 2005 05:51 PM

Cape Verde

the islands way out by africa

--------------------
Pam in Volusia County

According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6


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AndyG
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Re: Wave [Re: Old Sailor]
      #45502 - Tue Jul 26 2005 05:53 PM

Quote:

The Wave to really watch is the Wave by CV, this one shows the most promise and will not be effective by the dust cloud.




You mean the one directly behind 92L, right? Earlier, I thought that the one just coming off the coast looked strong. Now, the one behind 92L looks like it's organizing well.


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WX Storm 2005
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Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic [Re: MikeC]
      #45503 - Tue Jul 26 2005 06:09 PM Attachment (94 downloads)

When do you think we will see 93L? Very impressive waves today.




Pic Link


Edited by MikeC (Tue Jul 26 2005 06:27 PM)


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Beaumont, TX
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Re: Wave [Re: AndyG]
      #45504 - Tue Jul 26 2005 06:10 PM

How can you tell if a wave is organizing well?

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AlexK
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Waves [Re: MikeC]
      #45505 - Tue Jul 26 2005 06:16 PM

Both of the recently emerged waves off Africa are looking rather good right now, especially the one to the SW of the Cape Verde islands. I wouldnt be surprised to see an invest placed on it by tonight or tomorrow.

As For Franklin, hes still just sitting there, and again, convection is trying to get over the center. A feeble storm for sure, but a tenacious one


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Joe
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Re: Waves [Re: AlexK]
      #45508 - Tue Jul 26 2005 06:35 PM

Check out this model plot site I found, has a few extra models and you can pick your own overlays....

http://hurricane.methaz.org/cgi-bin/maps...;savequery=true


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HanKFranK
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here comes the cv season [Re: Joe]
      #45509 - Tue Jul 26 2005 07:13 PM

we're going to see development in the coming days... the key to where it all goes lies in the subtropics. i'll break it down.
two things aside from franklin need to be watched north of 20n. one is to the west, the other to the east. bastardi pointed out the southwestern feature on his TWO this morning... residual vorticity and an upper air sort of catchment will be stuck near the bahamas for the next few days.. as well most of the models forecast the trough heading to break the heat wave in the east to split and show a 500mb weakness retrograding over the southeast. these will be the focal point for interest as the 500mb low and dying front may trigger low pressure on the northern gulf coast, as well as the weakness near the bahamas interacting with the weak piece of tropical wave near 20/58 that split northwest the other day.
east of there is the potential storm-catcher. aside from the wave with invest 92L on it near 43w, subsequent waves may be passing underneath what may be a deep layer or hybrid cyclone east of bermuda. globals show a variety of different features but agree on a disturbance closing off near 30/50 in the coming days... diving shortwaves east of the 500mb ridge building in the western atlantic interacting with the persistent mid-level disturbance that has been east of franklin for the last few days should combine to trigger a low or hybrid system here.. which may provide a weakness for storms in the deep tropics to come north. depending on how it forms it may transition into a tropical-type system or attempt to lift out.. or simply stay relatively put and pull anything from the cv region poleward.
as for waves.. 92L looking about like yesterday. vortmax on the north part of the wave axis with little convection near 17n, weak low near 9n shifted south on the axis.. ITCZ embedded.. shouldn't do much until it gets a bit further west. globals propagate this feature wnw past the northern islands july 29-30... and into the bahamas around august 1-2. this one is a threat to the u.s. if it develops, in about a week's time.
wave behind 92L has more impressive convection... may develop further east. currently near 33w. the weakness in the central atlantic may draw this one up or at least tug it poleward.
new wave just coming off near 17w. another weeks worth behind it, probably more behind that.
trough splits and retrograding upper air features this year have triggered several of the systems we've tracked. the version of that going on near the east coast this week/weekend should make for an interesting scenario if a storm gets into the mix.
HF 0013z27july

Edited by HanKFranK (Tue Jul 26 2005 07:29 PM)


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: here comes the cv season [Re: HanKFranK]
      #45510 - Tue Jul 26 2005 07:23 PM

Hank, I sure hope you are referring to Curriculum Vitae and not Cape Verde.

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AndyG
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Re: here comes the cv season [Re: danielw]
      #45512 - Tue Jul 26 2005 07:52 PM

Spaghetti plot of 92L

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AndyG
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Re: here comes the cv season [Re: AndyG]
      #45513 - Tue Jul 26 2005 07:55 PM

Atlantic waves

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NewWatcher
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Re: here comes the cv season [Re: AndyG]
      #45514 - Tue Jul 26 2005 08:05 PM

per the Navy site, we now have 93L

--------------------
Pam in Volusia County

According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6


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WX Storm 2005
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Invest. 93L is here [Re: MikeC]
      #45515 - Tue Jul 26 2005 08:18 PM

I was checking out the NRL Monterey Tropical Cyclone Page and I found Invest 93L. You can find this at the follwing link http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_hom...DISPLAY=Animate

Comments?
Look impressive to me.

--------------------
Nathan Fairman
Nfairman@adelphia.net
Natedogg3L - Aim


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AndyG
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Re: Invest. 93L is here [Re: WX Storm 2005]
      #45516 - Tue Jul 26 2005 08:25 PM

Yeah, current bid is 3. Do I hear 4?

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Big Red Machine
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Re: Invest. 93L is here [Re: AndyG]
      #45517 - Tue Jul 26 2005 08:28 PM

Yikes 92 and 93 invest... not to mention the conga line still on Africa. Looks like stuff's about to really hit the fan.

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NewWatcher
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Re: Invest. 93L is here [Re: Big Red Machine]
      #45518 - Tue Jul 26 2005 08:29 PM

Interesting set of maps

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_bw.gif

--------------------
Pam in Volusia County

According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6


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WX Storm 2005
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Re: Invest. 93L is here [Re: AndyG]
      #45519 - Tue Jul 26 2005 08:31 PM Attachment (112 downloads)

That's tomorrow... lol

--------------------
Nathan Fairman
Nfairman@adelphia.net
Natedogg3L - Aim


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Old Sailor
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Re: Franklin [Re: Big Red Machine]
      #45520 - Tue Jul 26 2005 08:31 PM

Franklin should be a little stronger at 11PM about 45MPH or maybe 50MPH, looks to be N or NNW. Once it started to move again. Track seems to be on target.

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abyrd
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Re: Invest. 93L is here [Re: WX Storm 2005]
      #45521 - Tue Jul 26 2005 08:32 PM

It's not just Miami talking about influence from the tropics. Here's Melbourne's discussion.
OF NOTE IS THAT MOST OF THE MED RANGE GUIDANCE BRINGS SOME
SORT OF DISTURBANCE WNW FROM THE TROPICS TWD CUBA/BAHAMAS BY DAYS
6-7. THIS FAR OUT IN TIME THE LOCATION/INTENSITY OF SUCH A FEATURE
IS SUBJECT TO SIGNIFICANT ERROR. NEVERTHELESS IT MAY WIND UP BEING
SOMETHING TO KEEP TABS ON FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.


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WX Storm 2005
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Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic [Re: MikeC]
      #45522 - Tue Jul 26 2005 08:37 PM Attachment (154 downloads)

Here is the latest SCATT of invest 93L as an attachment.

--------------------
Nathan Fairman
Nfairman@adelphia.net
Natedogg3L - Aim


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Clark
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Re: here comes the cv season [Re: HanKFranK]
      #45523 - Tue Jul 26 2005 08:41 PM

I'm pretty much in line with what HF posted a little while ago, but wanted to add a couple of things....

* The feature east of Bermuda projected to develop appears to have support in the models for some sort of hybrid structure, at least early on, maybe trending a little more towards a tropical nature well down the line. Model depictions of a tropical cyclone not withstanding, it's one to watch in about 4 days. Most likely scenario has it just spinning around as a hybrid cyclone, keeping a weakness in the subtropical ridge that anything developed might - or might not - catch.
* Out into the east Atlantic, I still think that the wave that is now 93L -- the wave between 20-25W from my outlook early this morning -- is the better candidate for development over the next couple of days. The NHC and NRL are just starting to track it, with the former noting a strong mid-level feature but not much of a surface one yet; then again, that's how a lot of these things get started. If the current organization holds overnight and into tomorrow, I figure we'll have a TD out of it by sometime Thursday.
* 92L is just starting to perk up again (the further west wave from this morning's outlook), but I feel it's too broad and too tied up in dry air for any rapid development. Figure this one will have a shot in the 3-4 day time frame, likely as a storm that doesn't catch the weakness in the ridge and has the greater shot to impact land...if it does develop.
* Wave behind 93L just coming off of the coast has a shot like 93L does -- but it needs to stick around the coast for a little while or it might get impacted by the development of 93L. Nevertheless, count on this one likely becoming 94L in a day or two, with the potential for development in the 3-4 day time frame as well. No telling what it might or might not do from there.

It's going to be an active start to August, I'm afraid, and we may well end up with 8 named systems in the basin before 2004 even saw 1. Once Alex came along, however, things really got kicking...might see something like that again this year (activity-wise, not track-wise for now). I think the talk of blowing past our seasonal record is overblown, but we could get close to 20.

--------------------
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CaneTrackerInSoFl
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Re: here comes the cv season [Re: Clark]
      #45525 - Tue Jul 26 2005 08:55 PM

20? Thats incredible. I saw that the SHIPS model brings 92L to minimum hurricane strength in 5 days. Is that true?

--------------------
Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005



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Random Chaos
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Re: here comes the cv season [Re: CaneTrackerInSoFl]
      #45526 - Tue Jul 26 2005 09:06 PM

You realize that 5 days is the 31st of July, and that 93L looks better organized and currently strongerthan 92L - I wonder if we will have 9 named storms for just the month of July.

That is of course assuming that not the wave over the Carribean and none of the new ones coming off Africa form Tropical Storms by then and we have even more...

Edited by Random Chaos (Tue Jul 26 2005 09:09 PM)


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Clark
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Re: here comes the cv season [Re: CaneTrackerInSoFl]
      #45527 - Tue Jul 26 2005 09:07 PM

Well, only time will tell on that one! It might, it might not...would trend not unless it gets organized in the next two days, but it has a shot. 93L has the better shot, IMO.

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Old Sailor
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Re: here comes the cv season [Re: Clark]
      #45528 - Tue Jul 26 2005 09:17 PM

I'm better off keeping my mouth shut I mention the wave at this afternoon and now it's 93L. Oh well.

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ftlaudbob
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Re: here comes the cv season [Re: Clark]
      #45529 - Tue Jul 26 2005 09:23 PM

Clark,Do you see anything that could slow this crazy hurricane season down in August or September?This is getting a little scary if you live on the coast.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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CaneTrackerInSoFl
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Re: here comes the cv season [Re: Clark]
      #45530 - Tue Jul 26 2005 09:25 PM

If I read the Tropical Weather Discussion at 8:05 right, 92L is heading into an environment more conducive to moisture and convective development. I guess we will have to wait and see on that one.


BTW, I need a break from this season already. Updating my site is sometimes an annoying pain in the you know what. Well, besides that, I want a break from updating it almost all the time. But, the people must have their information.

--------------------
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danielwAdministrator
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Oops [Re: Old Sailor]
      #45531 - Tue Jul 26 2005 09:29 PM

The 1012 mb Low depicted in the NCEP maps, over the Andros Island area, should be part of a TUTT Low that HPC included in yesterday's? Discussion.

I'll see if I can find that link.
It wasn't progged to do much more than change the moisture levels and precipitable water levels.

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
211 PM EDT TUE JUL 26 2005 edited~danielw

...A TUTT EXTENDING FROM A LOW ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF HISPANIOLA SOUTHWEST TO NICARAGUA WILL DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE NORTHWEST. THE TUTT LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO NEAR 21N 72W BY 24 HRS...TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 25N 76W BY 48 HRS AND CENTRAL FLORIDA BY 72 HRS.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/fxca20.html

Edited by danielw (Tue Jul 26 2005 09:40 PM)


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Ryan
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Re: here comes the cv season [Re: CaneTrackerInSoFl]
      #45535 - Tue Jul 26 2005 10:19 PM

Quote:

BTW, I need a break from this season already.




i knoww right..and i havent even been in one and imm sick of it

gosh, the fact that the next storm will be Harvey scares me....H already!?!?

--------------------
2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.

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danielwAdministrator
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Re: here comes the cv season [Re: Ryan]
      #45536 - Tue Jul 26 2005 10:31 PM

Quote:

i know right..and i havent even been in one and im sick of it.

gosh, the fact that the next storm will be Harvey scares me....H already!?!?




On that note...I walked back into the room and TWC was showing the "Next List". Alpha, Beta...
That's the list they use After the current list of 24 names is exhausted.
Hope to never See an ALPHA. Except in the Archives of Old Storms.

Edited by danielw (Tue Jul 26 2005 10:33 PM)


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Random Chaos
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Re: here comes the cv season [Re: danielw]
      #45537 - Tue Jul 26 2005 10:34 PM

And I thought they would go to double letter names

Like Aardvark, BB Gun, etc


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CaneTrackerInSoFl
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Re: here comes the cv season [Re: danielw]
      #45538 - Tue Jul 26 2005 10:34 PM

Count me in on that count, Daniel.

--------------------
Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005



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Clark
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Re: here comes the cv season [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #45540 - Tue Jul 26 2005 10:42 PM

ftlaudbob -- only time will tell. Water temperatures should remain above-average across the basin through the season; what will play a determining role are dry air/dust outbreaks and upper-level winds. I don't see the latter having a large impact, so we'll likely just see activity come and go in spurts for the rest of the season. We average about 7 named storms after August 1st; that'd take us to 14 on the season...don't see any reason why we shouldn't at least get to that point.

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Random Chaos
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Re: here comes the cv season [Re: Clark]
      #45542 - Tue Jul 26 2005 10:54 PM

Just a curiosity:

I know that dust from the Sahara helps dampen storm development. Does volcanic dust also cause the same effect?


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Lisa NC
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Re: here comes the cv season [Re: danielw]
      #45543 - Tue Jul 26 2005 11:40 PM

The list only contains 21 names(no Q,U,X,Y,orZ) and the way this year is going it is a good chance we will see Alpha.

--------------------


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danielwAdministrator
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List [Re: Lisa NC]
      #45544 - Tue Jul 26 2005 11:44 PM

Thanks Lisa, I was trying to remember of the top of my head.
I should have looked it up.
Anything past ' H ' is too much this year!


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Spoken
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Re: here comes the cv season [Re: Random Chaos]
      #45545 - Tue Jul 26 2005 11:46 PM

Could someone please take a look at http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/atwv.html near 70W, 23N and tell me what the dark round area could mean??? It currently seems to moving slowly northwards. Water vapor appears to be feeding into it or perhaps even streaking into it from virtually every direction. It also seems to getting smaller. Thanks!!!

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danielwAdministrator
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Re: here comes the cv season [Re: Random Chaos]
      #45546 - Tue Jul 26 2005 11:52 PM

Quote:

Just a curiosity:

I know that dust from the Sahara helps dampen storm development. Does volcanic dust also cause the same effect?




I would think so. This is more of a Met question.
Typically, volcanic ash has a finer particle size than sand does.
I would think that ash would be a bit more abrasive, and slightly corrosive. If the ash is damp or wet.
Hence the Flight Precautions to aircraft after an Ash Cloud release.
Terra, and the Mets would have a better answer.


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: here comes the cv season [Re: Spoken]
      #45547 - Tue Jul 26 2005 11:55 PM

Quote:

Could someone please take a look at http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/atwv.html near 70W, 23N and tell me what the dark round area could mean??? It currently seems to moving slowly northwards. Water vapor appears to be feeding into it or perhaps even streaking into it from virtually every direction. It also seems to getting smaller. Thanks!!!




I believe that's the TUTT Low that HPC was referring to.
A few posts back, I posted part of the HPC Discussion from earlier today. That's the area they were talking about.


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hurricane expert
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Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic [Re: MikeC]
      #45548 - Wed Jul 27 2005 12:02 AM

that black thing u see it looks like dry air

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Spoken
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Re: here comes the cv season [Re: danielw]
      #45549 - Wed Jul 27 2005 12:07 AM

Thank you! I'm quite new to this.

Would it be typical then for such a low east of the Bahamas to "draw streams of moisture into itself" (seemingly against prevailing winds) all the way from the coast of Belize?

Again thanks!!


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic [Re: hurricane expert]
      #45550 - Wed Jul 27 2005 12:09 AM

Quote:

that black thing u see it looks like dry air




I believe that's the TUTT Low that HPC was referring to.
A few posts back, I posted part of the HPC Discussion from earlier today. That's the area they were talking about.

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/A10.html
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Landsea/bias/


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Spoken
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Re: here comes the cv season [Re: Spoken]
      #45551 - Wed Jul 27 2005 12:12 AM

Also that dry spot appears to be sucking up rather a lot of what what that silly Franklin has recently been throwing away to the east.

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Spoken
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Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic [Re: danielw]
      #45553 - Wed Jul 27 2005 12:56 AM

Fascinating stuff! I've been watching quite a bit of water vapor 'disappearing' into an oblong counter-clockwise-looking spiraled-area (centered pretty much over and/or north of Hispaniola) for a few days now, although it hasn't seemed to look so much like a 'black hole' until sometime today. If this TUTT feature works to keep storms from intensifying that's certainly neat, as long as it doesn't develop a mind of its own I suppose. And thanks very much!

You are Welcome. Hope it helped.~danielw

Edited by danielw (Wed Jul 27 2005 12:59 AM)


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WX Storm 2005
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Forcast Model's on 93L? [Re: MikeC]
      #45554 - Wed Jul 27 2005 02:42 AM Attachment (101 downloads)

Does anyone have any forcast models on 93L yet. I know it just missed the last model. but, if anyone does happen to have one let me know..... thanks... I attached the lates IR of 93L. I have a feeling about this one.....

--------------------
Nathan Fairman
Nfairman@adelphia.net
Natedogg3L - Aim


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Spoken
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Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic [Re: Spoken]
      #45555 - Wed Jul 27 2005 03:09 AM

Hmmm now I have a different concern. While it's comforting to know that this TUTT is unlikely to become the mother of all hurricanes (in as much as that's precisely the sort of thing it's working against) could it ever become the mother of all garden hoses?

It looks to me as if a portion of the 'missing moisture' is occasionally watering the Everglades. And thus Franklin might not actually have to turn around to cause problems for interests in Florida and elsewhere. He might merely need to prime the pump - for a fire hose, so to speak - through which a significant portion of the various 'big waves' end up getting sprayed (here and there, so to speak).

I mean, whatever moisture Franklin didn't end up getting would still seemingly have to go somewhere, and seemingly rather quickly, if this TUTT feature keeps siphoning off seemingly so much of the stuff from so many different places. Sorry if I seem like an alarmist but this is still new to me. Plus I'd hopefully always care about another community's major issues.


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danielwAdministrator
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NHC 2 AM Discussion [Re: Spoken]
      #45556 - Wed Jul 27 2005 05:42 AM

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED JUL 27 2005 edited~danielw

...TROPICAL WAVES...

EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 28W/29W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT. LONG-TERM SATELLITE LOOPS...UPPER-AIR TIMESECTIONS FROM DAKAR AND SAL...AND COMPUTER MODEL DATA SUGGEST THAT A PERSISTENT AREA OF TSTMS SW OF THE CAPE VERDES IS A REFLECTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE. THIS WAVE IS SMALLER IN AMPLITUDE THAN THE ONE IN THE CENTRAL ATLC AND THE ONE SOON TO EMERGE OFF WEST AFRICA. MOST OF THE SIGNAL OF THE WAVE IS IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS WITH ONLY A SMALL SURFACE REFLECTION NOTED...
THOUGH THE GFS MODEL SUGGESTS THAT SOME DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES A LITTLE SOUTH OF DUE WEST. IT SEEMS LIKE EVERY WAVE RECENTLY HAS BEEN A CANDIDATE FOR MORE DEVELOPMENT WITH THE VERY WARM WATER AND LIGHT VERTICAL SHEAR MORE REMINISCENT OF THE MIDDLE OF AUGUST RATHER THAN LATE IN JULY.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 9N TO 14N BETWEEN 27W AND 33W.

CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS TILTED FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ALONG 20N41W TO 14N44W TO 1014 MB LOW CENTER NEAR 11N45W TO 7N46W MOVING WEST 20 KT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING INTO A PROGRESSIVELY MORE UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IN THE WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N TO 17N BETWEEN 41W AND 44W...AND FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 44W AND 48W. THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF DRY AIR IN THE LARGER WAVE CIRCULATION BUT THIS SHOULD SLOWLY MIX OUT AS TSTM ACTIVITY INCREASES. MOISTURE FROM THE WAVE SHOULD ENTER THE LESSER ANTILLES ON FRIDAY WITH A PRECEDING "TAIL" OF MOISTURE ENTERING TOMORROW.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWDAT+shtml/270633.shtml?


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TAZMAN
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Re: NHC 2 AM Discussion [Re: danielw]
      #45557 - Wed Jul 27 2005 07:09 AM

Whats the longest a storm has maintained "storm" status..... Franklin is going on a week now..

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Beach
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Westward movement? [Re: TAZMAN]
      #45558 - Wed Jul 27 2005 07:23 AM

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-wv-loop.html

Sure looks like the percieved Center of Franklin is about to cross 70W
Should be interesting if it continues.


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Random Chaos
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Re: NHC 2 AM Discussion [Re: TAZMAN]
      #45559 - Wed Jul 27 2005 07:29 AM

I think quite a bit more than that. Most storms that form in them mid-atlantic take about a week before landfall, and some of them have stalled and sat spinning for a while. An example of a fairly long storm last year was Jeanne which developed on the 14th and didn't dissapte until the 28th - 14 days. An even better example is Kyle from 2002 which developed on the 21st and didn't dissapate until the 12th, or 21 days later. Franklin isn't anywhere near any of these in length.

I don't exactly want to spend the day studying old storm tracks to grab their dates - if anyone knows of what the record is please post


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Random Chaos
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Re: Waves in the Atlantic [Re: TAZMAN]
      #45560 - Wed Jul 27 2005 07:33 AM

I'm looking at the SAL product and it looks like the dust is fast breaking apart in the mid-Atlantic. This could allow that first wave to develop a lot more, and is unlikely to inhibit the new(er) waves off Africa

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TAZMAN
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Re: NHC 2 AM Discussion [Re: Random Chaos]
      #45561 - Wed Jul 27 2005 07:36 AM

That works for me !.... I was just curious... Thanks

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GuppieGrouper
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Re: NHC 2 AM Discussion [Re: TAZMAN]
      #45562 - Wed Jul 27 2005 07:40 AM

Good Morning. Although the coordinates say north on Franklin, the wv loop looks like he is moving due west the skew and all that jazz. I do have a question of those in the know. Is the Channel 4 satellite broken? It is my favorite for a quick look. The pix are stuck on July 24. I have looked for a status report and can not find one.

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.


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Shalafi
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Re: NHC 2 AM Discussion [Re: TAZMAN]
      #45563 - Wed Jul 27 2005 07:49 AM

Quote:

Whats the longest a storm has maintained "storm" status..... Franklin is going on a week now..




Ganked from http://www.wxresearch.com/outlook/2002end.htm:
Kyle lasted for 23 days.

Kyle was the third longest storm since 1871 behind Ginger in 1971 which lasted 31 days and Igna in 1969 which lasted 25 days. Carrie in 1957 lasted 23 days as well. Since 1871 there have been eight storms which lasted 20 days more.

That was as of 2002. Not sure if anything has been longer since.

--------------------
Bryan
What doesn't kill us only makes us stronger.
God bless
I know very litte about weather. I'm here to learn mostly but will post friendly replies now and then. So if you don't want to see non-weather comments ignore me now. Thanx!



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Random Chaos
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Re: NHC 2 AM Discussion [Re: Shalafi]
      #45564 - Wed Jul 27 2005 08:12 AM

Nothing longer (in the Atlantic at least) since 2002. I checked the NHC charts for 2002, 2003, and 2004 - and Kyle was by far the longest.

Here's Ginger: ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/pub/storm_archives/atlantic/prelimat/atl1971/ginger/prelim06.gif
(hard to read)

Edited by Random Chaos (Wed Jul 27 2005 08:54 AM)


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zacros
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Re: NHC 2 AM Discussion [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #45565 - Wed Jul 27 2005 08:56 AM

Is Frankin finally beginning to split as mentioned in some earlier posts by HankFrank? Looking at the visual sat, the center looks to be around 36N; however, the main convection is to south, closer to the NHC's center at 33N. What is going on? It looks to me like the main area of convection is beginning to move back to the west and pull away from the remainder of the storm to the north. Are my observations correct?

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HanKFranK
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Re: NHC 2 AM Discussion [Re: zacros]
      #45566 - Wed Jul 27 2005 09:04 AM

well, the official had it 'splitting' too. it'll probably fire up new convection near the center later on. some of what it's leaving may get entrained into the weakness/collection point near the bahamas over the next couple of days.. along with the weak disturbance near 20/60 moving wnw. GFS/nam have a discontinuous-looking feature moving up the east coast around the weekend out of this thing. the 92L disturbance has two main vorticity lobes to it... the one to the south or the one to the north can develop... it's starting to look like the northern piece will. 93L behind it is undergoing some easterly shear from the ridging building to the north, but should continue to slowly organize. the waves are spaced by about 12/13 degrees.. enough so that they shouldn't intermingle. new wave coming off looks ok too and 06Z GFS develops it also. still a lot of variety on the projected deep layer low in the east central atlantic... some showing it in a sharp trough that may preclude tropical nature. others show it developing like a cutoff hybrid low. there's another disturbance showing in various model runs along the north central gulf coast that's probably just related to the 500mb weakness that is supposed to back up there over the weekend. eyeball there, too. whole mess of things that can go active later this week/weekend.
HF 1404z27july


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TAZMAN
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Re: NHC 2 AM Discussion [Re: HanKFranK]
      #45567 - Wed Jul 27 2005 09:30 AM

Quote:

there's another disturbance showing in various model runs along the north central gulf coast that's probably just related to the 500mb weakness that is supposed to back up there over the weekend. eyeball there, too. whole mess of things that can go active later this week/weekend.
HF 1404z27july




TWC discussed this late last night and said it was mid level and nothing to be concerned about....... personaly I will watch them all


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MapMaster
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Re: NHC 2 AM Discussion [Re: TAZMAN]
      #45569 - Wed Jul 27 2005 10:44 AM

Over 30 days....

MM


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Katie
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Re: NHC 2 AM Discussion [Re: MapMaster]
      #45570 - Wed Jul 27 2005 10:51 AM

Hey Colleen - where are ya???

I feel as though I have been hit over the head with a 2X4. My sinuses are giving me a fit. I feel like my head is going to explode. something blooming that I am not aware of?

Hot here and how come it feels hotter than what they say it is?


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rmbjoe1954
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Re: NHC 2 AM Discussion [Re: MapMaster]
      #45571 - Wed Jul 27 2005 10:57 AM

The African dust should not inhibit the waves from developing. I am wondering if there has been any additional prediction updates based on the new British model. Also, Dr. Gray should update his forecast around August 1st. The newspaper reported up to 22 named storms this year. Wow.

--------------------
________2014 Forecast: 10/4/1________

There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard


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Liz
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Re: What is it? [Re: rmbjoe1954]
      #45572 - Wed Jul 27 2005 11:42 AM

Was just looking at the sats. Noticed a small formation of clouds just off the GA/SC coast, around 32N,78W. Anyone else see this?

Liz


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Clark
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Re: What is it? [Re: Liz]
      #45574 - Wed Jul 27 2005 12:04 PM

Nothing to worry about there; it's likely just normal daytime convection firing over the very warm waters of the Gulf Stream.

92L is pretty reminiscient of the wave that came before it, except with a bit more convection on its periphery. It's very broad and still in with a bit of dry air, so it's going to take some time to get going. 93L is still there, though it lost some convection earlier today. If that pops back, we'll restart the counter. That one has to maintain convection or, given it's weaker surface signature, will likely fade away. Still, I think it's the better bet of the two.

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nowhammies
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Re: NHC 2 AM Discussion [Re: Katie]
      #45575 - Wed Jul 27 2005 12:04 PM

Hey I have trick sinuses too! Mine have not been bothering me too much today - but with bein' pregnant and all - my system is really out of whack - ao I am not sure if my weather predicting nostrils are in tune

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CaneTrackerInSoFl
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Re: What is it? [Re: Liz]
      #45576 - Wed Jul 27 2005 12:06 PM

Not to be snobby, but isn't it a bit alarmist to be thinking every single thing of cloud formations this year is going to be a Tropical System?

--------------------
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ftlaudbob
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Re: What is it? [Re: Clark]
      #45577 - Wed Jul 27 2005 12:08 PM

Joe B. is getting excited about this in his Wed. video.Does not look like much to me.

--------------------

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AgentB
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Re: What is it? [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #45578 - Wed Jul 27 2005 12:18 PM

Quote:

Joe B. is getting excited about this in his Wed. video.Does not look like much to me.




That's what I thought too, but the way the season is going you never know. It seems like I could forget to check a TWO or TWD, and the next thing I know there are 1 or 2 named storms churning. Craziness.

--------------------
Check the Surf

Edited by AgentB (Wed Jul 27 2005 12:25 PM)


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Ryan
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Watching..Waiting [Re: AgentB]
      #45579 - Wed Jul 27 2005 12:34 PM

i have a feeling that one of the three waves wil develope by the close of the weekend

--------------------
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ftlaudbob
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Re: Watching..Waiting [Re: Ryan]
      #45581 - Wed Jul 27 2005 12:52 PM

Quote:

i have a feeling that one of the three waves wil develope by the close of the weekend


I think that is a good bet.But today I don't have to worry about any storms,and that is a good thing.Local tv here is saying the first wave should affect us here Sun or Mon,it what form?,That is the question.Anyone have any ideas about development on the first wave?

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Ryan
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Re: Watching..Waiting [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #45582 - Wed Jul 27 2005 12:57 PM

i think the first may develope but as of right now, the second wave looks more favorable for developement...any other thoughts anyone?

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Shalafi
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Re: What is it? [Re: CaneTrackerInSoFl]
      #45583 - Wed Jul 27 2005 12:58 PM

Quote:

Not to be snobby, but isn't it a bit alarmist to be thinking every single thing of cloud formations this year is going to be a Tropical System?




Isn't it better to be expecting and ready than assume it's nothing? Besides, this is a site for weather hobbyists, who enjoy weather. This is the season to enjoy it so that's what's being done. *shrug*

--------------------
Bryan
What doesn't kill us only makes us stronger.
God bless
I know very litte about weather. I'm here to learn mostly but will post friendly replies now and then. So if you don't want to see non-weather comments ignore me now. Thanx!



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Kevin
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Re: Watching..Waiting [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #45584 - Wed Jul 27 2005 12:58 PM

Quote:

Quote:

i have a feeling that one of the three waves wil develope by the close of the weekend


I think that is a good bet.But today I don't have to worry about any storms,and that is a good thing.Local tv here is saying the first wave should affect us here Sun or Mon,it what form?,That is the question.Anyone have any ideas about development on the first wave?




As Clark mentioned, the development of the first wave will likely be a slow process. The circulation associated with wave 1 (92L) is huge. I have noticed that there have been some popcorn showers developing around that broad circulation. Yesterday, there wasn't much of anything in that area. Perhaps we'll begin to see some modest development of 92L. I think that this wave may actually be a better candidate for development than the second wave.

Edited by Kevin (Wed Jul 27 2005 01:07 PM)


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D3m3NT3DVoRT3X
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Re: Watching..Waiting [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #45585 - Wed Jul 27 2005 01:01 PM

all aboard choo choo! for JB's african wave train .. lol guy cracks me up

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scottsvb
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Re: Watching..Waiting [Re: D3m3NT3DVoRT3X]
      #45591 - Wed Jul 27 2005 01:37 PM

Joe B i have been watching for years. I watch him cause hes a Met.. and loves the weather. He picks out anything that the models show might pick up on and any thunderstorm areas so he cant be wrong if 1 does develop. Hes usually off by where storms make landfall cause he uses his landfall points to hope a storm goes there so he will be right. Im 1 who doesnt believe in the tele-connect. Thing is ridges might be the same in the teleconnect but there are diff sizes and shapes of ridges. Last example was with Franklin, Joe B tried to show why he thought Franklin was going west compared to the Typhoon in the Pacific. Thing again was the ridges were diff. Also he looked at the wrong system in the Pacific. He is generally right about 1/3 of the time of landfall within 100 miles of 3 days out.
I do watch him cause again I love the excitement he puts into the weather forecasting. I like some of his other ideas also. I would say its worth watching him also for entertainment in what he does. Overall I would say Joe B is a good guy and good tropical forecaster. I just differ on the teleconnection thoughts and he tries to get his systems to hit his charted areas for the season.
92L still should be a system to watch as it moves towards Puerto Rico by Saturday. I say Thurs thunderstorms will consolidate more and a plane might check it out on Friday if that happens. After moving into the SE bahamas by Sunday-Monday it will slow down. Too far in the future after that cause a trough will swing off the east coast and it might just meander there for a couple days.

scottsvb

Edited by scottsvb (Wed Jul 27 2005 01:41 PM)


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VolusiaMike
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Joe B [Re: scottsvb]
      #45592 - Wed Jul 27 2005 01:40 PM

Anybody else have Joe B's broadcast drop off in the middle? I get to the section where he asks about east coast storm history, then it stops....

Michael


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nl
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Re: Watching..Waiting [Re: scottsvb]
      #45593 - Wed Jul 27 2005 01:41 PM

can i get that jb link please?

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scottsvb
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Re: Watching..Waiting [Re: nl]
      #45594 - Wed Jul 27 2005 01:42 PM

Its on the front page here at the bottom,, just click on it.

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Big Red Machine
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Re: Joe B [Re: VolusiaMike]
      #45595 - Wed Jul 27 2005 01:46 PM

yeah, I had the same problem, watched it twice just to make sure.

He's grown on me a bit. I hated him the first time I saw him. However, he is a bright guy and fun to watch. As Scott said, I don't always agree with his ideas, but I do take them into consideration.


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hurricane expert
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Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic [Re: MikeC]
      #45596 - Wed Jul 27 2005 02:01 PM

92L invest has 1011 mb pressure with 20knot winds it getting there to become our next tropical deppression it

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Steve
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Re: Joe B [Re: Big Red Machine]
      #45598 - Wed Jul 27 2005 02:02 PM

>>Anybody else have Joe B's broadcast drop off in the middle? I get to the section where he asks about east coast storm history, then it stops....

I had the same problem yesterday. Today, I clicked on Yahoo's link and switched my connection speed to low broad-band and got the whole thing. He basically just talks about 99, 95 and 54 and says that's where the linkups are with the remainder of the '05 season although the Gulf is hardly closed. He upped his landfall intensity totals beyond last year's actuals and +/- tripled his insurance damage to $12-18B.

The better video today was the tropical update. He's focusing on the ECMWF with 92L and believes it will be a Gulf storm. However, he also cautioned for two homebrew developments first, one in the NW Gulf (behind the front in E TX) and another off the mid-Atlantic between Franklin and the coast. What I could get was that TX was suspect as was NC/VA from those two systems.

As for 92L, ridging should be in place to carry it pretty far west. The question to me is (assuming development) whether it gets hung up in the Islands, hits Florida, or stays in the water and comes under the ridge into the Gulf. If it's the latter, it's probably another MS/AL/NWFL system unless ridging builds in to the north in which case it would be westbound.

The recap is to watch for the two homespun systems this weekend and look for 92L in the middle-of-next-week timeframe.

Steve

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VolusiaMike
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Re: Joe B [Re: Steve]
      #45600 - Wed Jul 27 2005 02:14 PM

Thanks for the update. Like many of the others have said, I don't always agree with him, but he can provide some entertainment at times and you can occassionally grasp the opportunity to learn something.

Thanks again,

Michael


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adogg76
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Re: Joe B [Re: Steve]
      #45601 - Wed Jul 27 2005 02:19 PM

I had been thinking of mentioing the front in E Texas(and northward). Looks pretty impressive for a land-lubber's storm! I know we usually talk about trops. in here...
Did the duststorm ever make it to FLA?? Did not think satellite imagery showed its arrival personally and also read a post that the conditions we have seen here is from haze and stagnant conditions. Will the dusting have any effect on these new waves??? Annnnnnnnd........possible wave forming in the last few frames just SSE of Franklin? Have heard that waves sometims form at the tail end of a coldfront i.e. Bonnie....I guess I should rephrase that thought......Is the small area of convection just forming N of Antilles and ahead of 92L and SSE of Franklin in a position that is good for development??


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Bloodstar
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Franklin, the little storm thatwould not die [Re: adogg76]
      #45602 - Wed Jul 27 2005 02:35 PM

I'm sure it's going to turn to the north at some point, but I'd hate to see the 3 day and 5 day errors for this storm. Talk about killing your accuracy for the NHC!

Ah well, maybe Franklin will stick around long enough for the next storm to form so we have 29 days of storms in July (I dont think that's ever happened before...) The only good news I can think of, I can't visualize how the atlantic basic could get that much *more* active than it was in July, I mean, sure you could see a little more activity, but more than 7 - 8 storms in August would be utter madness... We'd never sleep again... heh

-Mark

--------------------
TD/TS/HU/MH
19/18/0905 <- My prediction (2013 Predictions)
01/01/00/00 <- Year Totals

http://blog.bloodstar.org


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scottsvb
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Re: Joe B [Re: adogg76]
      #45604 - Wed Jul 27 2005 02:41 PM

Well it made it to Florida but just made skys kinda hazzy, Duststorms dont inhibit tropical development, but duststorms are usually with dry air blowing off the dry areas of the saharra desert and move E-W with the prevailling flow. This happens generally as the N Africian trade winds move further north into the desert regions.

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Clark
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Re: Joe B [Re: scottsvb]
      #45605 - Wed Jul 27 2005 02:50 PM

Didn't really make it here, either. The northern extent was blocked by Franklin and the upper-low over the Atlantic, while the southern extent has become a little diffuse and is currently affecting Cuba and the Yucutan. You can see it clearly here: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/wavetrak/winds/m8g10split.html

The hazy conditions across Florida & the SE US have been caused by stagnant air in association with the large ridge of high pressure at upper-levels. When the air doesn't move and there is strong sinking motion at upper levels, you tend to see conditions such as this -- though it is more common in the western US than here. With no rain to help clean things out, it just sticks in the air, especially given the abundant low-level moisture still in place. It too can help create some nice sunsets, as we've seen lately. These conditions should clear out in the next couple of days with the movement of the ridge and approach of the front from the NW.

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Ron Basso
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Re: 92 L [Re: Clark]
      #45606 - Wed Jul 27 2005 02:56 PM

Interesting Discussion on 92L from NWS Melbourne this afternoon.

LOOKING ONCE MORE
INTO THE TROPICS...W/R/T THE DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE E/SE
...THE 12Z GFS SLOWS IT TO A CRAWL AS IT PASSES THE TURKS/CAICOS BY
00Z MON (SUN EVENING)...DRIFTS IT W/NW INTO CTRL BAHAMAS A FULL H48
LATER...THEN SHOWS A STALL/TREND TWD RECURVATURE WED. LAST NIGHTS
00Z ECM DROVE THE FEATURE WWD THROUGH THE FL STRAITS AND INTO THE
GOMEX...OWING TO ITS AFOREMENTIONED HIGHER MID LEVEL HEIGHTS NORTH
OF FL AS COMPARED TO THE GFS.

--------------------
RJB


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Clark
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Re: Joe B [Re: Steve]
      #45607 - Wed Jul 27 2005 02:59 PM

I'll have to respectfully disagree with JB here. While the front is a rather strong one for this time of year, the southern end is rather diffuse and, given how the air mass is modifying on the southern side of the front, I just can't see anything coming of it. We can see storms form at the tail end of a front, but that's more of a September-November affair than a July/August one...just don't think it'll be strong enough to do it.

There's a weak trough tailing from Franklin, but anything in there is going to get caught up in the same flow Franklin will get caught up in and head out to sea. Alex formed offshore similar to that last year -- almost at this very time -- and while I'll go that far as well as say it's a more likely bet than the Gulf scenario, I'm still not too keen on it. The broad area of low-pressure projected across the SE US may help, but I don't see the energy being in the right place for anything to get going.

92L will be one to more impact the US than perhaps 93L -- at least sooner than 93L would -- but I think it's got a longer time ahead of it before it can get going. Like HF mentioned overnight, it's probably the north end that will get its act together, and even then the overall envelope is rather large. It might well get going, but it's a long-term affair.

93L on the other hand has, despite having its convective tops warm overnight, maintained a nice mid-level circulation, one that has some hints of working its way down to the surface in QuikSCAT imagery. While it might have more of a penchant to be a fish spinner than 92L, it's also (in my eyes) a more likely candidate to develop in the short-term. If the convective tops cool later today and the organization is maintained, I still believe we might see something classified by the end of the day tomorrow...or at least sometime Friday. Only time will tell, however...and that goes for all of them.

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Ron Basso
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Re: Joe B [Re: Clark]
      #45609 - Wed Jul 27 2005 03:12 PM

Clark, I agree with your assessment...92L probably will take a long time to become a named system..the latest GFDL doesn't bring it to TS status until it reaches the eastern bahamas...it's also a strange looking swirl of clouds..a big cyclonic sweep streching over 10 deg LAT..almost TUTT like now

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RJB


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Clark
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Re: Joe B [Re: Ron Basso]
      #45613 - Wed Jul 27 2005 03:40 PM

Well, I wouldn't call it TUTT-like -- TUT cells are not that large and in the mid-upper levels. This wave is a predominantly low-level feature with a very large circulation envelope...it's got the pieces there, it just needs to put them together somehow. We'll have to see if it does -- or when it does.

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NONAME
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Re: 92L [Re: Clark]
      #45615 - Wed Jul 27 2005 04:22 PM

27/1800 UTC 11.9N 32.5W TOO WEAK 92
27/1200 UTC 11.9N 31.8W TOO WEAK 92
27/1145 UTC 33.1N 69.1W T2.5/2.5 FRANKLIN
27/0530 UTC 12.5N 29.8W TOO WEAK 92

Can That really be 92L I thought it was west more that more closer to 93L check it out yourself at http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html


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Steve H1
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Re: 92L [Re: NONAME]
      #45618 - Wed Jul 27 2005 04:43 PM

HPC Discussion from this afternoon - ERN US snippet:

BY DAY 7...IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE
EARLY SEPTEMBER OVER THE INTERIOR AS FRESH SFC RIDGE BUILDS IN
FROM CANADA. THE MID ATL AND SOUTHEAST WILL BE WET...WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL FOCUSING JUST N OF POLAR FRONT DAYS 3 AND 4 FROM THE SRN
APPALACHIANS TO THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. AIRMASS CONVECTION IS
ANTICIPATED S OF FRONT...WITH AN INCREASE IN RAIN OVER THE FL
PENINSULA BY DAY 7 AS TROPICAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHEAST.


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MapMaster
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Re: GERT [Re: Steve H1]
      #45619 - Wed Jul 27 2005 04:59 PM

Yes, GERT,,,her remnants are still intact and have reached The Gulf of Baja California....


MM


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AndyG
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Re: 92L [Re: Steve H1]
      #45620 - Wed Jul 27 2005 05:02 PM

Atlantic Tropical Waves

92L Spaghetti plot

93L Spaghetti plot


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Clark
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Re: GERT [Re: MapMaster]
      #45621 - Wed Jul 27 2005 05:27 PM

Not exactly. Looking at 3-day satellite loops over the region, Gert's remnants dissipated over central Mexico, with the energy getting caught up in the trough passing across the central/eastenr US over a day ago. Any remnant of Gert that would be in the Pacific now would've come across a day or more ago.

What you see now in the Gulf of California is the remnants of a mesoscale convective complex that formed along the Mexican west coast last night. There was one the day before that, and the day before that as well; in fact, they are quite common this time of year and can occasionally spin-up mid-level vortices (as last night's might've done). No Gert remnants around, though.

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susieq
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Re: GERT [Re: Clark]
      #45622 - Wed Jul 27 2005 06:31 PM

According to Accuweather, because the Atlantic is so much warmer than usual, they are predicting that during the rest of the hurricane season, more tropical development will hit the east coast of Florida and the U.S rather than venture through the Gulf. What do you mets think?

--------------------
Gulf Breeze girl still not over Ivan


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Ryan
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Re: GERT [Re: susieq]
      #45626 - Wed Jul 27 2005 08:34 PM

im no met. but i agree..

--------------------
2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.

Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back


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Ryan
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Re: 92L [Re: AndyG]
      #45627 - Wed Jul 27 2005 08:40 PM

Quote:

Atlantic Tropical Waves

92L Spaghetti plot

93L Spaghetti plot




those are really good maps..thanks AndyG..i agree with those

i think 92L could develope into a minimal hurricane go rightt above the upper antilles andmake a path thru or a litle bit above the Bahamas.. and make a florida Georgie landfall.

As for 93L, i think it could develope but head a little further northward

but this is early for predictions..may as well throw one on the table

and i feel its safe to say this season a tropical system will hit:
-south eastern florida
-the bahamas
-carolinas
-northeast(South NJ-MASS)

--------------------
2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.

Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back


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GuppieGrouper
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Re: 92L [Re: Ryan]
      #45628 - Wed Jul 27 2005 08:45 PM

It appears according to the Bastardi video that The Carolina region is at the top of the high risk list for the rest of the season. I wonder if that article that came out earlier in the year really meant"The Case Against Florida" actually having a landfalling major hurricane this year. That does not mean that hurricanes won't get close enough to disturb the weather, just not close enough to the peninsula to aggravate Central Florida.

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.


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Ryan
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Re: 92L [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #45629 - Wed Jul 27 2005 08:47 PM

yea, i kinda feel bad for florida..well, i can't control the weather, i mean if you guys can wave your wands n send em away up here im sure well be happy to take a bullet..but nothing bad only cat 1 or 2


jk


.Ryan

--------------------
2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.

Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back


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pcola
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Re: 92L [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #45630 - Wed Jul 27 2005 08:49 PM

I can certainly say that whoever wrote "The Case Agaainst Florida" having a landfalling major hurricane this year....was 100% wrong.

--------------------
Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!


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Hurricane Fredrick 1979
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Re: 92L [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #45631 - Wed Jul 27 2005 08:57 PM

Quote:

It appears according to the Bastardi video that The Carolina region is at the top of the high risk list for the rest of the season. I wonder if that article that came out earlier in the year really meant"The Case Against Florida" actually having a landfalling major hurricane this year. That does not mean that hurricanes won't get close enough to disturb the weather, just not close enough to the peninsula to aggravate Central Florida.




Well guess since JB couldn't get a direct hit on New Orleans guess he would try his luck somewhere else hummmmm like up the East coast?


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Ron Basso
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Loc: hernando beach, FL
Re: GERT [Re: susieq]
      #45632 - Wed Jul 27 2005 09:06 PM

Quote:

According to Accuweather, because the Atlantic is so much warmer than usual, they are predicting that during the rest of the hurricane season, more tropical development will hit the east coast of Florida and the U.S rather than venture through the Gulf. What do you mets think?




I'm not a MET but a scientist nonetheless..The Atlantic Ocean is not only warmer this year but has been warmer, relatively speaking since 1995. We are currently in the warm phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) which should last another 10 to 40 years. The North Atlantic ocean periodically alternates between warm and cool phases every two to five decades. The last cool phase lasted from 1970-1995 and there was a general lull in Atlantic Tropical Activity. So over the long term, the entire east coast and FL peninsula will see alot more tropical cyclone activity over the next 20 years or so.

As far as this year, not only are seas surface temps high, but very favorable atmospheric conditions also exist (i.e. low shear environment, lower pressure in the Carribean, no drought in the Sahel region of W Africa, etc.). The Cape Verde season, which usually starts in mid-August, will start earlier this year (now?) and will be quite active with numerous waves rolling off the coast of Africa. So in that respect, I'd tend to agree with Accuweather that the US east coast and FL is more vulnerable than the Gulf Coast. What will be the major player in this years landfalls will be the relative strength and position of the Bermuda High. Last year, this Ridge held strong and was positioned slightly north of the peninsula. This caused Frances and Jeanne to move W-NW into the east coast of FL rather than head north into the Carolinas or NE out to sea. Prior to last year, even though we had one of the most active periods in Atlantic Cyclone History (1995-2003), many of the storms ended up fish spinners because the Bermuda Ridge was not strong and large Troughs of Low Pressure anchored themselves along the east coast & deflected them out to sea.

--------------------
RJB


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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: 92L [Re: Ryan]
      #45634 - Wed Jul 27 2005 09:14 PM

Quote:

yea, i kinda feel bad for florida..well, i can't control the weather, i mean if you guys can wave your wands n send em away up here im sure well be happy to take a bullet..but nothing bad only cat 1 or 2


jk


.Ryan




um...

nothin' personal but i'd rather not take a cat II bullet, but yer point is at the very least well taken...there are already too many "signs" pointing towards a NE (northeast, not New England) strike we don't need any jinxing our luck thus far...

we REALLY dodged bullets with bob, floyd and isabel; we may not be so lucky next time...lemme tell you, twas NO FUN after Gloria and that wasn't really much of a cane, specially compared to what Florida and the GOM took last year.

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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911
Registered User


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Re: 92L [Re: LI Phil]
      #45635 - Wed Jul 27 2005 09:20 PM

My Family is heading to Ft Lauderdale are this weekend for 7 days. Are any of these a concern?

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Spoken
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Tue
Posts: 64
Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic [Re: danielw]
      #45636 - Wed Jul 27 2005 09:22 PM

Perhaps have a look at what seems related to the Atlantic TUTT. Water Vapor appears to be 'jetting out' near 72W, 27N. If so then perhaps at what speed would it appear to be moving?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/nwatl-wv-loop.html
(Jul 28 05, 13:15-00:15 UTC)

Also information on the TUTT itself can be found at
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/A10.html
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Landsea/bias/
(And thanks again, danielw, for responding)


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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


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Re: 92L [Re: 911]
      #45637 - Wed Jul 27 2005 09:23 PM

I don't see a threat to Florida in the near future.

--------------------
Michael
2013: 17/6/4
2013 Actual: 13/2/0


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 757
Loc: Lauderdale-By- the- Sea,Fl 26.19N 80.10W
storm surge? [Re: LI Phil]
      #45638 - Wed Jul 27 2005 09:28 PM

Question.I live 1.5 miles from Ft Laud beach.How high would the storm surge have to be to flood my first floor,taking into account the inter coastal.Just trying to figure out what cat storm ,would force me to leave my home.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


Edited by ftlaudbob (Wed Jul 27 2005 09:30 PM)


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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 808
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL 27.83N 82.69W
Re: 92L [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #45639 - Wed Jul 27 2005 09:31 PM

What's your elevation above Mean Sea Level? That will give you a good indication. My guess is a strong cat 2, definitely cat 3. I live in mid-Pinellas county with a floor elevation of 19ft 3in above MSL and my evacuation zone corresponds to a cat 4 storm.

--------------------
Michael
2013: 17/6/4
2013 Actual: 13/2/0

Edited by MichaelA (Wed Jul 27 2005 09:34 PM)


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


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storm surge? [Re: MichaelA]
      #45640 - Wed Jul 27 2005 09:37 PM

Not sure about exact level,But I know it is not much.If a cat 4 or 5 came in,about what water level would be in my house?

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


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Re: storm surge? [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #45641 - Wed Jul 27 2005 09:47 PM

According to this: http://www.broward.org/disaster/epi00304.pdf if you are West of US 1 you're OK.

--------------------
Michael
2013: 17/6/4
2013 Actual: 13/2/0


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Big Red Machine
Storm Tracker


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Posts: 223
Loc: Polk City, FL
Re: 92L [Re: MichaelA]
      #45642 - Wed Jul 27 2005 09:53 PM

Quote:

I don't see a threat to Florida in the near future.




I'm afraid I'm going to have to disagree here. If by immediate you mean within 3-4 days, no... I don't see a threat either, however if by immediate you mean within the next week-week and a half, with three waves out there, Florida definitely has an immediate threat. The Atlantic is not exactly quiet now Michael...


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 757
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Re: storm surge? [Re: MichaelA]
      #45643 - Wed Jul 27 2005 09:54 PM

Quote:

According to this: http://www.broward.org/disaster/epi00304.pdf if you are West of US 1 you're OK.


Thanks for the link.I am east of US1,in the plan B zone.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


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Loc: Metairie, LA 30.00N 90.14W
Re: 92L [Re: Big Red Machine]
      #45644 - Wed Jul 27 2005 10:03 PM

>>Well guess since JB couldn't get a direct hit on New Orleans guess he would try his luck somewhere else hummmmm like up the East coast?

New Orleans was never a direct target. Despite the mouth of the River call for Dennis, we're probably as close to Gulfport and Biloxi as we are to the mouth of the River. The Louisiana zone was only progged to 13 points, and we have already scored 6 or 7 on his scale (having either 2 tropical storms or 1 tropical storm and 1 cane depending on how one views Cindy - the damage was Cat 1). His highest impact to start the season was AL/MS/NWFL which sustained 2 hits - Cat 3 and strong Tropical Storm - as well as additional likely TD conditions from Cindy. FWIW, his new video still shows 6 points for the LA zone for the year. And that adds up to either effects from 3 tropical storms or a Cat 1 and a TS. We'll see.

But you bring up a good point. That 28 points for the Carolina zone is absurd. A landfalling Cat 4 scores 32 points, and he's giving it cumulative 28. Thats' a lot of tropical action and BIG action at that (even if some of those points are scored via a system coming up from the Gulf and across the Southeast).

I was amazed that he was willing to up his intensity scale beyond last year's total which was nearly a fluke in itself. He's going out on a pretty big limb even if the setup for the rest of the season would lead one to believe that the US Coast is a target. We absorbed many landfalls last year - some pretty strong ones too - so we'll see as time marches on.

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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pcola
Storm Tracker


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Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
Re: storm surge? [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #45645 - Wed Jul 27 2005 10:04 PM

The highest recorded storm surge in the US was Camille..a catagory 5 who's winds I believe were 170 mph. It was 21 feet and traveled 1-2 miles inland.

--------------------
Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 757
Loc: Lauderdale-By- the- Sea,Fl 26.19N 80.10W
Re: storm surge? [Re: pcola]
      #45647 - Wed Jul 27 2005 10:12 PM

My plan (which I hope I will not have to use)is to stock up my car,and go to a parking garage downtown.And will bring my camcorder.I will have to find a place to put my furnture,not sure where yet.But this will only be for a cat 3 or higher,I will stay at home for a cat 1 or 2.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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Ryan
Storm Tracker


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Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
i was kidding [Re: pcola]
      #45648 - Wed Jul 27 2005 10:13 PM

phil i was kidding..trying to get peoples minds off how flipping busy this season will be..sorry

and you say a lot of things pointing to the northeast..all i see is the above normal SST's..what else..enlighten me

your starting to scare me that somethings going down..very soon

--------------------
2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.

Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back

Edited by Ryan (Wed Jul 27 2005 10:37 PM)


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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


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Posts: 808
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL 27.83N 82.69W
Re: 92L [Re: Big Red Machine]
      #45649 - Wed Jul 27 2005 10:15 PM

Quote:

Quote:

I don't see a threat to Florida in the near future.




I'm afraid I'm going to have to disagree here. If by immediate you mean within 3-4 days, no... I don't see a threat either, however if by immediate you mean within the next week-week and a half, with three waves out there, Florida definitely has an immediate threat. The Atlantic is not exactly quiet now Michael...


92L is still 2 - 3 days from developing, if at all, and still a week away from becoming any threat to land. 93L is even farther away. I don't see the possibility of a threat to Florida until after next week, if even then.

--------------------
Michael
2013: 17/6/4
2013 Actual: 13/2/0


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Ryan
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 281
Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
Re: 92L [Re: Big Red Machine]
      #45650 - Wed Jul 27 2005 10:15 PM

Quote:

Quote:

I don't see a threat to Florida in the near future.




I'm afraid I'm going to have to disagree here. If by immediate you mean within 3-4 days, no... I don't see a threat either, however if by immediate you mean within the next week-week and a half, with three waves out there, Florida definitely has an immediate threat. The Atlantic is not exactly quiet now Michael...




im gonna have to go with the big red machine on that one Michael..

--------------------
2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.

Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back


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Old Sailor
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 293
Loc: Florida
Re: 92L [Re: Big Red Machine]
      #45652 - Wed Jul 27 2005 10:17 PM

I feel that Florida is unlikely to be hit before mid August, that being said, looking long range Mid Aug. to end of Sept.......The South East Coast of Florida could be under the gun for a Cat 3 or 4.

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Ryan
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 281
Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
Re: 92L [Re: Old Sailor]
      #45654 - Wed Jul 27 2005 10:19 PM

what makes you think that?..i mean they could get hit early august..

--------------------
2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.

Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 757
Loc: Lauderdale-By- the- Sea,Fl 26.19N 80.10W
Re: 92L [Re: Old Sailor]
      #45655 - Wed Jul 27 2005 10:20 PM

Quote:

I feel that Florida is unlikely to be hit before mid August, that being said, looking long range Mid Aug. to end of Sept.......The South East Coast of Florida could be under the gun for a Cat 3 or 4.


What makes you think that?I am very interested to say the least.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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JustMe
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 128
Loc: Orlando, Florida 28.54N 81.39W
Re: 92L [Re: MichaelA]
      #45656 - Wed Jul 27 2005 10:21 PM

This year is uncertain for sure however I would not venture a guess that Florida would not be hit ... There are many waves ,storms and hurricanes to follow if the trend continues as it is. I remeber last year wondering if the season would ever start and this year we are looking forward to the end. September 15 is the height of the season and we have a little over 50 days yet to reach that point. Keep your eyes open and continue to watch.. It is when we don't watch that we all get ourselves into trouble by letting down our guard. We should never close our eyes to the unknown of the season. Certainly we would all like to see a gentle year with no more loss of lives or personal lost. Be alert to the season and respect it.

--------------------

I have survived Betsy Miss, Camille Miss., Andrew Fl, Charley Fl, Frances FL, Jeanne FL,


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Ryan
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 281
Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
Re: 92L [Re: JustMe]
      #45658 - Wed Jul 27 2005 10:24 PM

amen to that

-- Edited by Mod

Edited by RedingtonBeachGuy (Thu Jul 28 2005 08:07 AM)


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damejune2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 237
Loc: Torrington, CT 41.80N 73.13W
Re: i ws kidding [Re: Ryan]
      #45659 - Wed Jul 27 2005 10:24 PM

I am no MET, in fact i am a total novice about hurricanes, BUT, if i lived in/on Long Island, C.T, R.I, or Mass, i wouldn't be worried about hurricanes. Since Gloria, how many storms have you had hit there? I mean really, how many direct hits has LI, NYC, or any other New England city taken in the last 20 years? I am sorry if i am sounding like this, but i live in Florida which means pretty much every wave that comes off the African coast is of major concern to me and my family. I wish i lived on LI or any where in the northeast. You don't know how lucky you are. So please........perhaps you could tone it down a notch or two. In my defense, i and others on this site have a heck of a lot more to worry about as far as hurricanes are concerned. Just sit back and relax, maybe go out to Montauk Point and take a swim in that warmer water. Sorry for the attitude, but this is almost like a billionaire complaining that he didn't hit the lottery. If this post is to be removed, so be it and i understand, but i just had to say something. Do others on here feel like this guy from LI is over reacting a little?

BTW - Gloria's eye passed right over my house in Winsted, Connecticut. I was 12 years old. The storm blew down an apple tree in our yard and we never lost power.

--------------------
Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)


Edited by damejune2 (Wed Jul 27 2005 10:27 PM)


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Old Sailor
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 293
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Re: 92L [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #45660 - Wed Jul 27 2005 10:26 PM

Bob:
After 45 yrs at sea in the US Navy, retired as an Capt. Think I seen more Storms then most on here, anyhow to answer your question it's more of a gut feel looking at the long range weather forecasts.. No hard facts.


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Ryan
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 281
Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
Re: i was kidding [Re: damejune2]
      #45661 - Wed Jul 27 2005 10:31 PM

Quote:

I am no MET, in fact i am a total novice about hurricanes, BUT, if i lived in/on Long Island, C.T, R.I, or Mass, i wouldn't be worried about hurricanes. Since Gloria, how many storms have you had hit there? I mean really, how many direct hits has LI, NYC, or any other New England city taken in the last 20 years? I am sorry if i am sounding like this, but i live in Florida which means pretty much every wave that comes off the African coast is of major concern to me and my family. I wish i lived on LI or any where in the northeast. You don't know how lucky you are. So please........perhaps you could tone it down a notch or two. In my defense, i and others on this site have a heck of a lot more to worry about as far as hurricanes are concerned. Just sit back and relax, maybe go out to Montauk Point and take a swim in that warmer water. Sorry for the attitude, but this is almost like a billionaire complaining that he didn't hit the lottery. If this post is to be removed, so be it and i understand, but i just had to say something. Do others on here feel like this guy from LI is over reacting a little?

BTW - Gloria's eye passed right over my house in Winsted, Connecticut. I was 12 years old. The storm blew down an apple tree in our yard and we never lost power.




seriously i wouldnt be on here if i didnt care dont think storms dont affect me

hurricane Andrew destroyed my apartment outside of miami and jeanna tore the roof of my condo..dont tell me that i shud relax i have a house in orlando and a condo in stuart that jsut got fixed from jeanne so scuse you for tlaking like that becuase i shud worry just as much and dont think i dont have any symptahy are you kidding..my family would have been ruined if we didnt evacuate before jeanne tore the rook off..i mean my life aint so sunshine and roses buddy

--------------------
2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.

Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back

Edited by Ryan (Wed Jul 27 2005 10:40 PM)


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 757
Loc: Lauderdale-By- the- Sea,Fl 26.19N 80.10W
Re: i ws kidding [Re: damejune2]
      #45662 - Wed Jul 27 2005 10:34 PM

Living where I do now,But also having lived in R.I.,I have to say there is big difference as far as worrying about hurricanes go.But I went through some bad storms up there,Bob was the last one and it did alot of damage in R.I.I see your point,But the whole east coast needs to have a plan and pay attention.And they are due up there.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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Ryan
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 281
Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
Re: i was kidding [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #45663 - Wed Jul 27 2005 10:35 PM

thank you bob

--------------------
2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.

Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back

Edited by Ryan (Wed Jul 27 2005 10:40 PM)


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damejune2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 237
Loc: Torrington, CT 41.80N 73.13W
Re: 92L [Re: Old Sailor]
      #45664 - Wed Jul 27 2005 10:41 PM

Old Sailor - Let me see if i understand what people are saying. Because of the position of the Bermuda high, there is a slim chance that yes, hurricanes and or TS's will hit florida, but there is also a chance, better than last year, that these storms will go north? I read about that...what do you think?

--------------------
Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)


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Ryan
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 281
Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
Re: 92L [Re: damejune2]
      #45665 - Wed Jul 27 2005 10:43 PM

as much as you made me a little angry, i thinkt he bermuda high is "deflecting" storms north thats why the carolinas is the numero uno on "the list" you dont want to be on

truce kiddo?

--------------------
2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.

Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back


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damejune2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
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Re: i was kidding [Re: Ryan]
      #45666 - Wed Jul 27 2005 10:45 PM

Ok, sorry for upsetting you

-- Let's not tell others what they feel..

Edited by RedingtonBeachGuy (Thu Jul 28 2005 08:14 AM)


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damejune2
Storm Tracker


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Re: i was kidding [Re: damejune2]
      #45667 - Wed Jul 27 2005 10:47 PM

Truce now?? Face it, we are all targets of storms whether it be blizzards in your area or tropical stuff down here. Sorry about the money comments, but you touched a nerve with me too!!!!

Lets move on.

--------------------
Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)


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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 808
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL 27.83N 82.69W
Re: i ws kidding [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #45669 - Wed Jul 27 2005 10:49 PM

Well, there is a bit of a difference between storms striking Florida and storms striking New England. Namely the forward speed. If the NE were to be hit by a storm moving at 10 - 15 MPH rather than the usual 25 - 30 MPH at that latitude, the damage would be devastating. It isn't a function so much of the max winds, but of the duration of those winds. Not down playing storms hitting NE, just comparing 2 - 3 hours of damaging winds to the 4, 6, or 8 hours experienced at this latitude.

--------------------
Michael
2013: 17/6/4
2013 Actual: 13/2/0


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Ryan
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 281
Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
Re: 92L [Re: Ryan]
      #45670 - Wed Jul 27 2005 10:49 PM

so anyway, what do people think has the greater potential for developement 92L or 93L?

--------------------
2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.

Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: Great Lakes 45.95N 84.55W
Re: 92L [Re: damejune2]
      #45671 - Wed Jul 27 2005 10:51 PM

There's a chance that the storms will continue west underneath the ridge, or there's a chance that they will recurve around its perophery. It can be the difference of 10m in height in the mid-levels that determines whether a storm recurves or not, or it could be whether or not a trough comes through at the right time to pick up a storm. We can't tell any of those well in advance of the storm -- and the models don't always get those and other factors precisely correct, as we saw last year -- so to say that any particular area is moreso under the gun than any other, beyond what climatology might suggest, isn't prudent.

Based upon a sheer increase in activity, however, everywhere is moreso under the gun than normal. Research is ongoing to try to see if the probabilities of a particular area being hit or not can be determined, but that science is in its infancy and just experimental at this point. Anyone who says that a certain area will or will not see a storm this season is lying, because they do not know. You can say that there is an increased likelihood of a storm potentially affecting your area, based upon an overall average of the steering currents & storm activity, but that's about as far as we can go right now.

What Bastardi, Gray, and others are doing in reality follows along these lines, though I don't know if I'd go so far as to assign points to various reasons as does JB. But, the way they get interpreted and occasionally presented leads many to think that this is not the case -- it's here where some in the media create a large disconnect between fiction and reality for the sake of ratings & readership. Read everything you can out there, but unless you see it rooted in scientific research (past, current, or ongoing), take it with a grain of salt.

With all of that said...I think everyone here needs to tone down the banter just a little bit. There's no sense in having a flame war go on. Feel free to express your opinions, share your ideas, talk about the storm -- talk about whatever! -- but please do be considerate of others here when doing so. It's one thing to disagree over politics or your favorite baseball team or how many coins I have in my hand; it's another to be talking about life & death when it comes to these storms in mere wishes.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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Old Sailor
Storm Tracker


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Re: 92L [Re: damejune2]
      #45673 - Wed Jul 27 2005 10:51 PM

Please note I said..Florida could be under the gun for a Cat 3 or 4. I didn't say it would be for sure, also agree that SC and NC maybe be subject to the same type of Hurricane.... And the Gulf is not out of the woods yet... places like Eastern North Texas, La. and Tampa Bay but feel they would more then likely see a Cat 2.

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Justin in Miami
Storm Tracker


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Re: storm surge? [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #45674 - Wed Jul 27 2005 10:53 PM

Although it could be a safe place...the City would kick you out.

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Ryan
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Re: 92L [Re: Clark]
      #45675 - Wed Jul 27 2005 10:53 PM

sorry captain

--------------------
2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.

Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back


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Ryan
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Re: storm surge? [Re: Justin in Miami]
      #45677 - Wed Jul 27 2005 10:55 PM

dont mean to go rambling on bout LI but int he case of a cat 2 hurricane hiting southern LI, can there still be storm surge from the LI sound to the north shore?

--------------------
2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.

Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back


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Major7
Weather Watcher


Reged: Wed
Posts: 37
Loc: Hollywood, FL 26.02N/80.20W a...
Re: i was kidding [Re: damejune2]
      #45678 - Wed Jul 27 2005 11:00 PM

New Yorkers give little thought to hurricanes since Long Island is so far from the warm, tropical oceans that feed hurricanes. However, according to the 1984 Hurricane Damage Mitigation Plan by the Long Island Regional Planning Board, several hurricanes and 15 tropical storms have made landfall in this area since 1886. According to historical record, there have been five "epic hurricanes" (Category 3 or higher on the Saffir Simpson Scale) in the years 1938, 1893, 1821, 1815, and 1635 (Hughes).
from http://www2.sunysuffolk.edu/mandias/38hurricane/hurricane_climatology.html

So, you know, it doesn't really matter how often a threat, it only takes one devastating event to change the lives of many. Long Island, like Florida and the rest of the coastal areas of the United States have had such a population growth that a dramatic storm now impacts millions.

--------------------
My experiences:
Betsy 1965~New Orleans (my first)
Alicia 1983~Texas; Opal 1995~Georgia;
Frances & Jeanne 2004~Florida;
Dennis, Eye of Katrina, Eyewall of Wilma~Florida 2005


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ShanaTX
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Re: 92L [Re: Old Sailor]
      #45679 - Wed Jul 27 2005 11:02 PM

Quote:

Eastern North Texas,




FYI ... no such place exists on the Texas coast (Technically that would be places like Tyler, Palestine and Texarkana ... all well inland)

If you're talking about the Texas coast from Houston/Galveston north... that's normally referred to as the "Upper Texas coast"

'shana


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nowhammies
Verified CFHC User


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a silly question about 93 models [Re: Major7]
      #45680 - Wed Jul 27 2005 11:05 PM

Okay - speaking of things JK

I was looking at the models of the92 & 93 - 93 has a confusing thing on it - one of the models - one I dont hear many people talk about (which may be related to the probem) has the storm making a rather sharp turn to the north. Like it is gonna run into a wall.

What would be there that would be strong enough to make that happen that abruptly?


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Ryan
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Re: a silly question about 93 models [Re: nowhammies]
      #45681 - Wed Jul 27 2005 11:06 PM

good question

can i have the link fo the models you were looking at?

--------------------
2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.

Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back

Edited by Ryan (Wed Jul 27 2005 11:07 PM)


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ShanaTX
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Reged: Mon
Posts: 226
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Re: a silly question about 93 models [Re: nowhammies]
      #45682 - Wed Jul 27 2005 11:06 PM

Quote:

What would be there that would be strong enough to make that happen that abruptly?




Bad data input?


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Ryan
Storm Tracker


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models [Re: ShanaTX]
      #45683 - Wed Jul 27 2005 11:09 PM

http://www.ourgallagherfamily.com/storm_image/92L/92L.html

look at that..dont you think thats a little to far north..and they have it intensifying in kts..what are peoples inputs on this

info apreciated

-Ryan

--------------------
2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.

Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back


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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


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Re: models [Re: Ryan]
      #45684 - Wed Jul 27 2005 11:22 PM

If Long Island was about 400 miles south, it would be the most dangerous place in the world (outside of Bangledesh of course) for storms. Fact is, it isn't. And based on my understanding of plate-techtonics, it will never be. As noted above, the last epic storm was some 67 years ago. That's a lot of time. And while it's certainly possible that a major could hit up that way (has before, will again) in a given season, the dynamics required are pretty rare.

I agree with the "relax and enjoy the ride" scenario presented by Ryan. Frankly, I don't understand how people could be into the tropics and then act like a non-major would be the end of the world. I also understand that some people are paranoid by nature and drawn by their fears to storm forums. But the vast majority of us enjoy tropical storms and minimal canes despite the potential hazards and minor inconveniences they bring. I guess it's just part of being a freak of a different nature. But I'm more of a sitting duck than anyone on this forum, and the last thing I'm going to do is come down on anyone else for hoping to see some tropical action. JMO.

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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Ryan
Storm Tracker


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Re: models [Re: Steve]
      #45686 - Wed Jul 27 2005 11:30 PM

tanks steve, i agree with you

what do you hink about the 92L model i posted you freak of a different nature..haha

i go with whoever said this before

if you like on the east coast of the US your a sitting duck

--------------------
2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.

Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


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Re: models [Re: Steve]
      #45687 - Wed Jul 27 2005 11:31 PM

Well,I remember seeing alot of boats on peoples lawns after Bob hit R.I.And being without power a few days.Also seen bulidings swept out to sea.And that was not that long ago.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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DebbiePSL
Weather Guru


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Loc: Saint Marys Georgia
Re: 92L [Re: Ryan]
      #45688 - Wed Jul 27 2005 11:32 PM

Ryan- I for one feel like everyone has their own weather problems to deal with, here in Florida, Hurricanes- Your area Blizzards- California, wildfires, earthquakes, ect. Where I used to live we constantly had to deal with the threat of tornadoes. No matter where in the US we live Mother Nature is the one in control, and all we can do is try to better educate ourselves so that when something bad happens we are at least prepared. I value everyones ideas , suggestions, advice and knowledge. This board has been my salvation.

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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


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Re: 92L [Re: DebbiePSL]
      #45689 - Wed Jul 27 2005 11:34 PM

Also the eye of Bob went right over Block Island,RI. with 105mph winds.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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Ryan
Storm Tracker


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Re: 92L [Re: DebbiePSL]
      #45690 - Wed Jul 27 2005 11:35 PM

yea debbie i mean thats one of the main reasons im hear to educate myself, god forbid, if this is our time you know?

what do you think of the 92L model i posted a little while ago?

-Ryan

--------------------
2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.

Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back


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Goosus
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 21
Loc: Boise ID
Natural Disasters [Re: DebbiePSL]
      #45691 - Wed Jul 27 2005 11:36 PM

What are they afraid of in Boise Idaho?

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WX Storm 2005
Verified CFHC User


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Posts: 14
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
What are your thoughts for tomorrow? [Re: MikeC]
      #45692 - Wed Jul 27 2005 11:41 PM Attachment (83 downloads)

I attached the most recent IR of the Eastern Atlantic what are your thoughts on these waves. I noticed in 92L a large flare up on the northern end of the waver that seems to be pretty persistent. 93L is does not have as much convection but, seems to be holding together pretty well. Lastly the wave behind 93L is still holdng together also. What do we have to look out for tomorrow and what has to happen for any of these waves to develope? Thanks....

--------------------
Nathan Fairman
Nfairman@adelphia.net
Natedogg3L - Aim


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Ryan
Storm Tracker


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Re: Natural Disasters [Re: Goosus]
      #45693 - Wed Jul 27 2005 11:41 PM

me, no idk tornadoes, snow..idk

--------------------
2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.

Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back


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Ryan
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Re: What are your thoughts for tomorrow? [Re: WX Storm 2005]
      #45694 - Wed Jul 27 2005 11:43 PM

Quote:

I attached the most recent IR of the Eastern Atlantic what are your thoughts on these waves. I noticed in 92L a large flare up on the northern end of the waver that seems to be pretty persistent. 93L is does not have as much convection but, seems to be holding together pretty well. Lastly the wave behind 93L is still holdng together also. What do we have to look out for tomorrow and what has to happen for any of these waves to develope? Thanks....




http://www.ourgallagherfamily.com/storm_image/92L/92L.html

^^thats 92L look where the models are taking it..looks northward what are your thoughts on this one WX Storm 2005, and others?

--------------------
2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.

Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back


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DebbiePSL
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 151
Loc: Saint Marys Georgia
Re: models I have learned so much from you guys here. Thanks and keep up the good work [Re: Steve]
      #45695 - Wed Jul 27 2005 11:44 PM

Steve I am one of those people that is just a bit nervous. Hurricanes are new to me I have lived here for only 3 years. Having 2 hurricanes make landfall in my area in less than three weeks was too much for me. I think someone told me that PSL had not been hit in about 40 years until last year anyone know if that is trues?

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WX Storm 2005
Verified CFHC User


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Posts: 14
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
Re: What are your thoughts for tomorrow? [Re: Ryan]
      #45697 - Wed Jul 27 2005 11:51 PM Attachment (115 downloads)

Well my initial thoughts looking the Water Vapor loop is that there is a persistant cry area to the south of the convection which is not helping development. Secondly there is a ridge of high pressure that is forcast to strenghten above 92L. If this ridge intensifies and moves more south and westward then we would be looking at a situation where it would move this wave more toward the East Coast. Attached is the GFS sea level pressure at hour 0 which shows what I am talking about. Long range and intesity is usually never good on forcast models. My instinct would tell me that if this convection persists and the dry air relaxs towards the west we could be looking at a possible TD in 24-48 hours to worry about.

--------------------
Nathan Fairman
Nfairman@adelphia.net
Natedogg3L - Aim


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Ryan
Storm Tracker


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Re: What are your thoughts for tomorrow? [Re: WX Storm 2005]
      #45698 - Wed Jul 27 2005 11:53 PM

i will most definatley be wathcign this little buger

--------------------
2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.

Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back


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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
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Re: models I have learned so much from you guys here. Thanks and keep up the good work [Re: DebbiePSL]
      #45699 - Thu Jul 28 2005 12:03 AM

I understand Debbie. 2004 was a wakeup call for a lot of people that now call Florida home. Because of what they refer to as the Multi Decadal Cycle (has to do with ocean warming) that we're in now (last one lasted from the 40's through the 60's), there will be a lot more hits than even us coastal long-timers are used to. These cycles last from perhaps 20-50 years, and we've apparently been in this one since 1995 after a lull from 1970-1994ish. Storms are a fact of life. There is no defense against them, so it's on us as individuals and heads of households to learn how to prepare for and deal with them. The best advice I could ever give anyone is to heed whatever warnings the NHC and your local NWS puts out. If they say "get", then get. Often times it will be a false alarm, but a day or two of inconvenience due to a false alarm is better than making funeral arrangements. I know I'm whacked in the head with hurricanes, and my wife absolutely loathes and fears them (and thinks I'm a complete idiot when it comes to following the tropics), but I get nervous just like you and most other people do. But my fascination tempered with the anticipation for the possible extremes gives rise to irrational behavior (e.g. wanting to see what storm 'x' has to offer). In a way, it's like the proverbial train wreck. You know it's bad, but I gotta look anyway. Twisted? Probably.

But you're at one of the best places on the web to learn about this stuff. And your two storms last year probably prepared you a bit for what lies ahead and what might be the upper limit your home and nerves can handle.

Ryan,

I don't know about 92L. I really don't have any thoughts on it yet. I'm just watching.

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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DebbiePSL
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
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Loc: Saint Marys Georgia
Re: models I have learned so much from you guys here. Thanks and keep up the good work [Re: Steve]
      #45700 - Thu Jul 28 2005 12:33 AM

Steve- I agree 100% that this site is the greatest, I found it by chance last year before Frances and have been coming back since then. I learned so much last year and value all the info you guys put out there. Thanks and keep up the great job.What sanity I have is because of this site and the fact I can now follow these storms and better prepare myself if need be. During hurricane season my computer is logged on to this site and my tv is on the weather station

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Hurricane Fredrick 1979
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
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Loc: Mobile,Alabama 30.77N 88.14W
Re: models [Re: Ryan]
      #45702 - Thu Jul 28 2005 12:40 AM

Quote:

http://www.ourgallagherfamily.com/storm_image/92L/92L.html

look at that..dont you think thats a little to far north..and they have it intensifying in kts..what are peoples inputs on this

info apreciated

-Ryan




Ryan
Thats the XTRP model which to me is usless. It's just one thrown in there for good measure. The GFDL GFS UKMET NOGAPS are the models to look at. Maybe the ECMC and the FSU MM5

Edited by Hurricane Fredrick 1979 (Thu Jul 28 2005 12:41 AM)


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Ryan
Storm Tracker


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Re: models [Re: Hurricane Fredrick 1979]
      #45703 - Thu Jul 28 2005 01:16 AM

o0o ok thnaks..i wills till be watching like i always do just in case

--------------------
2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.

Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back


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Goosus
Verified CFHC User


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Loc: Boise ID
Re: models [Re: Hurricane Fredrick 1979]
      #45704 - Thu Jul 28 2005 01:38 AM

Maybe I'm an idiot, but I always took "XTRP" in the spaghetti models to be short hand for "extrapolate", as in they're drawing a straight line from where the storm is to what direction it's moving at last recon.

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Hurricane Fredrick 1979
Weather Guru


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Loc: Mobile,Alabama 30.77N 88.14W
Re: models [Re: Goosus]
      #45705 - Thu Jul 28 2005 01:45 AM

Quote:

Maybe I'm an idiot, but I always took "XTRP" in the spaghetti models to be short hand for "extrapolate", as in they're drawing a straight line from where the storm is to what direction it's moving at last recon.




Yea thats what it is. Like I said useless. Knowing the storm is not going to go in a "STRAIGHT" line. ANd if you notice the models may go a little to the right or to the left of the line the XTRP will go 200 miles either way. When I run my models I dont include the XTRP model.


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: Great Lakes 45.95N 84.55W
Re: models [Re: Hurricane Fredrick 1979]
      #45706 - Thu Jul 28 2005 01:51 AM

As an aside, XTRP is just extrapolated motion. It is basically the recent motion of the wave extrapolated linearly to 5 days. I wouldn't pay it any mind.

In the tropics, Franklin is hanging on -- shouldn't get to hurricane status like was insinuated earlier today, but might strengthen a little more. These sheared storms are difficult to classify, even given Dvorak estimates, because we don't have recon going out there into the storm. QuikSCAT and microwave imagery helps for winds and structure, but even they have their limitations. It could be stronger than the satellite appearance if the past trends when recon flights were out there still hold true, or it could be weaker. Nevertheless, 50mph seems about right.

92L has seen the convection consolidate a bit on its northern edge with a corresponding tightening of the inner-core rotation. It's getting closer to being able to develop, but it's not there yet. Give it another couple of days. It still has some dry air to deal with on its western periphery, getting ingested from the SW into the main part of the feature, and is in a region of relatively high wind shear. This should weaken in the medium-range as the wave moves west. Any motion should keep it moving west or just slightly north of due west, potentially affecting the islands in a day or two.

93L is on the downswing convection-wise again, but the mid-level feature remains. If it can spit up some convection and keep it, as I've been maintaining for a couple of days now, it could get going at a pretty decent clip. It doesn't have as much model support, but I chalk that up to its small size plus the feature being primarily at the midlevels as opposted to the surface. As long as it doesn't get caught up in the flow around 92L, it should start to fire up in a day or so. Thursday isn't looking likely for a categorized storm, but I'll be mildly surprised if we don't see a depression out of this by sometime over the weekend. It too should head west, likely ending up as a Caribbean system in time.

It's way too early to tell what either 92L or 93L might bring towards the US. There is a trough about to reach to eastern coast and a couple of upper-lows in the SW Atlantic and near the Yucutan; this may or may not change over the next 5 days. The trough may linger near the Gulf coast, always bringing the threat for some development with it, but I'm not convinced it'll be strong enough to get down there -- it's already starting to elongate east-west with little forcing in the western US/upstream to push the southern end along. Still, it remains something to watch, both for the Gulf Stream and Gulf itself.

Some energy is trying to slip out of the trough currently to the north of 92L, but I'm not sure anything is going to be able to cut off in the ridge and develop. We'll know by later today what's going to happen there, if anything.

More as events warrant...

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(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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Clark
Meteorologist


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Re: models [Re: Hurricane Fredrick 1979]
      #45707 - Thu Jul 28 2005 02:02 AM

As another heads-up, tropical-wise, the FSU Superensemble has been the best performing model for two years running. Of course, it's not publically available, so we can't use the output to make forecasts...only the NHC can. The NOGAPS model was best in 2002 and has remained near the top ever since; the UKMET was best in 2001 yet has been one of the worst since then. It was negatively influenced by 1 storm in 2002, but no such excuses can be made for the past two years. The UK Met Office apparently made some changes to the model during that time which hasn't resulted quite as favorably as they would've hoped or expected. The GFS is always near the middle of the pack, while the GFDL is similar (it's run off of the GFS initial conditions). The GFDN, or the GFDL run off of the NOGAPS initial conditions, generally performs slightly better. Both are usually either too low or too high with intensity. The Canadian (CMC) and European Center (ECMWF) models aren't run as much for tropical activity, though the latter does quite well and the former has its moments...particularly with recurving storms.

On a global scale, the ECMWF model has been the best for some time. The UKMET model is up there as well, as is the Japanese (JMA) model. The GFS is towards the middle-end of the pack as far as global models go, but improving. Note that many of the tropical models are just mesoscale models -- this includes the GFDL and various flavors of both the WRF and MM5, plus all of the steering layer (e.g. BAM-series, LBAR, A98E) and statistical (e.g. CLIPER) models -- and thus not relevant to this part of the discussion.

In this decade, the dynamical models (GFS, GFDL, ECMWF, UKMET, and so on) heavily outperform the limited-area/statistical-dynamical models (BAM-series, LBAR, etc.) and are even better than the statistical/persistence models. This wasn't always the case. Until the mid-90s, when the global models improved in the tropics to the point of relevancy, the statistical-dynamical models were relied upon for track and intensity forecasting; back into the 80s and prior, it was down to forecaster experience, looking at the flow regimes (as best as they could tell from water vapor; satellite analyses such as the UWisconsin products weren't around back then), and the statistical/persistence models. Kinda funny how we've come full circle, with a statistical model (FSU Superensemble) at the head of the pack, though it really is better classified as a dynamical model with statistical modifications.

Obviously, models change from year to year (and occasionally more frequently than that), whether in terms of their resolution, the physics they employ, or even how they ingest data. That's why it's important to use past performance as just a tool until you can determine how a given model is doing with any given storm or any given season/environmental regime. It's also why the FSU Superensemble -- heavily based upon prior model performance -- tends to struggle early in the season; the changes in the model aren't always able to be accounted for, making the first few storms' forecasts not as accurate as they could be.

Hope this sheds some light on the model questions...

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(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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HanKFranK
User


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Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
rehash and additions [Re: Clark]
      #45709 - Thu Jul 28 2005 02:12 AM

i'm going to guess that the fun starts friday.
clark covered 92/93 in the same sort of fashion i would. well... with a more professional touch. my guess is that 92L will have consolidated enough to develop by friday.. 93L may reach the threshold around the same time (really whenever it gets east of the upper easterly jet which is shearing it). 92L will probably develop very close to the northern leewards, 93L will be on a lower trajectory. 92L is the larger threat to the u.s. in about a week, dependent on how stable the western periphery of the ridge is around that time.
clark mentioned the gulf feature... similar take here.. a whole scatter of models see it differently, and many keep it close enough to land that its offshore development window would be sort of sketchy. an impulse rotating offshore la on the back side of that 500mb weakness or a wave on whatever is left of the front offshore would have to be the culprit.
three other mentionables for a total of six. notice the piece of wave energy that was trackable from the large wave that lead the moisture surge off africa... moving northwest of puerto rico. this will feed into the 500mb weakness in franklin's wake near the bahamas and several models are showing development riding up the eastern seaboard that is potentially a propagation of this feature... we may have a close-in development this weekend running roughly from the bahamas to nc/sc to nantucket.
next is the wave trailing 93L.. it's fairly robust, just not as far along as the others. various globals are tracking/developing it. it'll won't happen before next week, though.
other thing is the complex deep layer system forecast to develop around 30n/45-50w. globals run all sorts of features out of this to several different compass points.. and use it as a weakness to draw up 93L and it's trailer. i'm more convinced the trailer will catch the lift than 93L will... maybe both. this may make a run at hybrid development, and may cause the western periphery of the ridge to amplify (i.e. turn up whatever is trying to come underneath it near the east coast).
anyhow, very active setup we have here. 2-3 storms likely to emerge out of it, outside shot at 4. this weekend/next week things ought to get pretty interesting.
HF 0712z28july


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Multi-Decadal Signal
Weather Guru


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Re: Natural Disasters [Re: Goosus]
      #45711 - Thu Jul 28 2005 05:22 AM

Debbie: In Boise they fear the cold, blizzards and STRANGERS...

--------------------
Who you gonna' believe?
Me, or your damn lying eyes?
_Ö_ _ö_


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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


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Re: storm surge? [Re: pcola]
      #45714 - Thu Jul 28 2005 07:27 AM

Camille's surge was more than 21 feet... I had 22 feet at my house in Biloxi and I was about 19 miles or so east of the center .... my house has been surveyed to be 20 feet above sea level... water marks were 2 feet high in my house from Camille... The house I was living in at the time on the point in Biloxi was 17 feet above sea level... we had 5 feet of water in that house... I was in it at the time... you don't forget something like that... that house is another 7 miles east of where my present house is and 26 miles from the center... I've read reports that the surge was as high as 25-27 feet above sea level just east of where the eye went inland near Bay St. Louis MS... Camille's surge was unbelievable and was the greatest contributor to the massive and total destruction along the MS coast and subsequent loss of lives....

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COgal
Weather Watcher


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Re: models [Re: Clark]
      #45715 - Thu Jul 28 2005 07:34 AM

Cany anyone give the best links to the available models?
Thanks!


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Frank P
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Re: models [Re: COgal]
      #45716 - Thu Jul 28 2005 07:41 AM

http://weather.net-waves.com/modelplot.htm

just click on the TC you want to look at


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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


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Re: models [Re: COgal]
      #45717 - Thu Jul 28 2005 07:42 AM

http://met.psu.edu/tropical/tcgengifs/

another good site for seeing the loops of certain models


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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker


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Re: models [Re: COgal]
      #45718 - Thu Jul 28 2005 07:45 AM

The links are on the first post.

--------------------
Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005



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VolusiaMike
Weather Hobbyist


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Re: models [Re: COgal]
      #45720 - Thu Jul 28 2005 07:50 AM

Quote:

Cany anyone give the best links to the available models?
Thanks!




Look at the bottom of the main page of this site. You will see links to models, other sites, various information. This page does a great job of providing a wealth of information, plus links to other sites for additional viewpoints, links, etc.

Michael


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VolusiaMike
Weather Hobbyist


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Re: models [Re: VolusiaMike]
      #45721 - Thu Jul 28 2005 07:55 AM

WOW! You folks are fast... he had three other answers before I could finish typing my resonse!!!

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RedingtonBeachGuy
Moderator


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Re: storm surge? [Re: Frank P]
      #45722 - Thu Jul 28 2005 08:01 AM

I think it was Camille I went through where I was surfing on Gulf Blvd between the hotels! It was unbelievable how much water ended up on the barrier islands in that storm and, yet, the storm didn't even come close to us.

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ShanaTX
Storm Tracker


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Re: storm surge? [Re: Frank P]
      #45723 - Thu Jul 28 2005 08:29 AM

I was reading up on storm surge and they figure Camille's was at least 25 feet. I read that Carla (1961) had 22 a foot storm surge. 250,000 + people evacuated the Texas coast for Carla.

Camille 1969

Texas Hurricane History: Late 20th Century Scroll down for Carla info

'shana


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NONAME
Weather Guru


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Re: 92L [Re: ShanaTX]
      #45726 - Thu Jul 28 2005 09:36 AM

Is it just me or is the convection of 92L Flaring up? Also is 93L lossing convection and from what it looks we might have 94L by the end of friday.

Edited by NONAME (Thu Jul 28 2005 09:43 AM)


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Hootowl
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Re: 92L [Re: NONAME]
      #45727 - Thu Jul 28 2005 09:44 AM

I noticed that myself. Maybe we will have something later today. I'm still to new to make the call.

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Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker


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Re: 92L [Re: ShanaTX]
      #45728 - Thu Jul 28 2005 09:59 AM

We are also referred to as southeast Texas.

Also, question, don't these storms serve the purpose of moving heat from the tropics?


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Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker


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Re: storm surge? [Re: ShanaTX]
      #45729 - Thu Jul 28 2005 10:12 AM

My Mom talked of the evacuation for Carla. Of course, I was only two at the time so I don't remember it.
That was some storm.


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Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker


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Re: storm surge? [Re: ShanaTX]
      #45730 - Thu Jul 28 2005 10:15 AM

My mother also talked of Audrey. She always talked of the windows rattling and how the winds scared her.

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AgentB
Weather Guru


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Re: 92L [Re: Beaumont, TX]
      #45731 - Thu Jul 28 2005 10:18 AM

Quote:

We are also referred to as southeast Texas.

Also, question, don't these storms serve the purpose of moving heat from the tropics?




Yes, they help maintain the global heat balance.

--------------------
Check the Surf


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NONAME
Weather Guru


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Re: 92L [Re: NONAME]
      #45732 - Thu Jul 28 2005 10:20 AM

Quote:

Is it just me or is the convection of 92L Flaring up? Also is 93L lossing convection and from what it looks we might have 94L by the end of friday.


By have 94L I 'am talking about the wave in the eastern atlantic and i was the checking the IR and it look like that wave behind 93L is about as devloped as it.

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Katie
Weather Guru


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Loc: Winter Haven, FL
Re: 92L [Re: NONAME]
      #45733 - Thu Jul 28 2005 10:46 AM

Anyone know a link to find air quality??? (if I am using the correct term) I am looking for the central Florida ara.

Thanks.


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LI Phil
User


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Re: 92L [Re: AgentB]
      #45734 - Thu Jul 28 2005 10:48 AM

Quote:

Quote:

We are also referred to as southeast Texas.

Also, question, don't these storms serve the purpose of moving heat from the tropics?




Yes, they help maintain the global heat balance.




Hurricanes serve a distinct purpose in atmospheric balance. That purpose is to move heat from the tropics toward the poles, thus balancing the amount of heat across the Earth. Just as thunderstorms move heat from the surface to the upper levels of the atmosphere, hurricanes balance the global environment by moving heat from the equatorial regions toward the middle latitudes. This heat transfer comes in the form of "sensible heat", (heat we can feel), and "latent heat", (heat stored in the process of evaporation and later released through condensation).

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Ryan
Storm Tracker


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Re: 92L [Re: LI Phil]
      #45735 - Thu Jul 28 2005 10:55 AM

we may have 94L by the end of the day..if we do thats 3 to be watching which would mean things are heating up again

Question: If the weather says there is a tropical airmass coming up from the south..does that carry any tropical storms with it?

--------------------
2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.

Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back

Edited by Ryan (Thu Jul 28 2005 10:58 AM)


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hurricane expert
Really Not an Expert


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Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic [Re: MikeC]
      #45736 - Thu Jul 28 2005 11:01 AM

92L know has winds of 25knots according to the navy web site and a pressure of 1011 mb we should have our tropical deppression this afternoon am pretty sure 25knots are 30 MPH winds

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Ryan
Storm Tracker


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Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic [Re: hurricane expert]
      #45737 - Thu Jul 28 2005 11:06 AM

possible

--------------------
2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.

Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back


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Hootowl
Weather Hobbyist


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Re: 92L [Re: Katie]
      #45738 - Thu Jul 28 2005 11:09 AM

Katie,
I think that www.weather.com has air quality, pollen forecast etc. You should be able to pull it up by your zip.


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Katie
Weather Guru


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Re: 92L [Re: Hootowl]
      #45739 - Thu Jul 28 2005 11:11 AM

Thanks Hoot. I emailed John W. I will look at that as well.

EDIT: just as I suspected.... Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups - great...it is going to be a long day. Why couldn't I be a little bit closer to Tampa? Oh well.

Edited by Katie (Thu Jul 28 2005 11:15 AM)


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hurricane expert
Really Not an Expert


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Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic [Re: MikeC]
      #45740 - Thu Jul 28 2005 11:15 AM

92L has a big flare up of thunderstorms it getting its act toghether and is showing that it going to become a tropical deppression

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NONAME
Weather Guru


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Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic [Re: hurricane expert]
      #45741 - Thu Jul 28 2005 11:19 AM