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Recon found a center for 93L (VDM), so it is likely to be upgraded to a depression soon.
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Archives >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
Re: A fluke [Re: MapMaster]
      #46840 - Sun Aug 07 2005 01:31 PM

think you're a little too ready to call irene dead. it has survived and slowly strengthened under shear. the center has relocated twice. nonetheless they've snagged satellite-derived t.s. winds on it. it's probably had t.s. winds in the convective bursts since friday. the global models that were killing it have switched back to having it survive... for a central atlantic recurvature late next week. i think that's probably how it's going to go.
HF 1731z07august


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damejune2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 237
Loc: Torrington, CT 41.80N 73.13W
Re: A fluke [Re: MapMaster]
      #46841 - Sun Aug 07 2005 01:32 PM

Doesn't The Weather Channel use the tracks that the NHC uses? Funny how now that the storm is named, TWC doesn't have a projected path for Irene. Odd, but not a big deal.

--------------------
Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)


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damejune2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 237
Loc: Torrington, CT 41.80N 73.13W
Re: A fluke [Re: HanKFranK]
      #46842 - Sun Aug 07 2005 01:33 PM

Hank - Irene, in your opinion, will head out to sea and only be a problem for shipping and the fishies?

--------------------
Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)


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damejune2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 237
Loc: Torrington, CT 41.80N 73.13W
Re: A fluke [Re: MapMaster]
      #46843 - Sun Aug 07 2005 01:39 PM

MapMaster - I agree with Hank - i dont think Irene will affect land, but i think it will strengthen some before it's done and over.

--------------------
Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: Great Lakes 45.95N 84.55W
Re: A fluke [Re: MapMaster]
      #46844 - Sun Aug 07 2005 01:40 PM

I dunno, MM. The LLC is a pretty vigorous one on visible satellite imagery. It's a heavily sheared system, but so was Franklin and so is Harvey. The QuikSCAT pass was pretty conclusive (high-res shaded at http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/storm_byu_at_image21/byu_hires20052190759_09.png) and continues the trend of development evidenced from the nighttime pass Friday night, Saturday night, and into Sunday morning with stronger winds as the convection -- admittedly removed from the center -- got going. There's a mid-level feature just SE of the system that is obscuring things, even on visible imagery, but overall the surface circulation is going strong.

Unfortunately, all of the recent microwave imager passes missed the storm, so we don't have that tool to better diagnose the storm's structure. Admittedly as well, the system did look better earlier -- more coincident with the QuikSCAT pass -- but I don't see a lot to suggest that the intensity is on the high side. They've been using QuikSCAT a lot more with storms far from land as a supplement to the Dvorak technique, which in itself is not perfect, and the two are in pretty good agreement at this time. I do agree though...this one is looking more and more like one for the fish.

Just my two cents as well...

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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Rabbit
Weather Master


Reged: Sat
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
Re: A fluke [Re: MapMaster]
      #46845 - Sun Aug 07 2005 01:43 PM

Quote:

looks like an open wave right now, even though there is a small circulation center.




an open wave by definition does not have a circulation center, hence the term 'open'
this is a very weak system but does have the closed low necessary for continued classification


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MapMaster
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 138
Re: A fluke [Re: Rabbit]
      #46846 - Sun Aug 07 2005 01:52 PM

Hence my phraseology- "looks" as opposed to, is.

MM


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2329
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Administrative Notes [Re: NONAME]
      #46849 - Sun Aug 07 2005 02:03 PM

For some of our newer posters (and a few of our older ones):
It seems like every year I have to post something like this - and this year is no exception. From the Site Usage Rules:

"Low Content Posts: Please do not make single line posts containing no content (ie, "cool" "hello", "I agree", or something else completely void of meaning). Or general cheerleading, for example, if you think someone did a good job and have nothing else to add send them a PM, it works better for this. Otherwise posts like these just litter up the forums. Remember, CFHC is not a Chat Room - it is a Niche topic-oriented site, so please attempt to stay 'on topic' by placing your posts in the proper Forum."

The attempt here is to avoid the use of one-line posts. CFHC is not a Chat Room, it is a site for Forum-oriented dialogue, so please use it that way. Reviewing many of the posts over the past two days, most of the one-liners add nothing to the exchange of information. A lot of them ask questions that have already been answered elsewhere - sometimes more than once. Before you ask a question, take the time to review some of the other Forums - odds are that it already has been answered. Use the PM feature to thank someone for their input. Personal information does not belong on this site - it just clutters it. Keep in mind that there is another Forum for asking questions of a more general weather nature - please use it when appropriate. When you post a one-liner like "I think that its moving WSW" and you don't include anything else - like WHY you think this - its going to get deleted by the Moderators. Sometimes we let this stuff go, but when we start to receive a bunch of complaints from other site users - we attempt to resolve the problem. Please help us by following the site rules - it makes the job of site moderation a lot easier ... and it provides for a more enjoyable experience for all of the site users. Thanks for your help on this.
ED


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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 395
Loc: 25.63N 80.33W
Latest Sat (Visible) [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #46854 - Sun Aug 07 2005 02:57 PM

Irene looks like she is going under a heavy shear right now. I know it was Clark earlier who mentioned there was a seperate mid-level circulation to the southeast. And it is especially apparent right now. I wonder if it survives today. Also, is the mid-level flow to the west on the southern side as what appears to be the mid-level center is moving southwest. In the event that these two split, if a new low level center fired up under the mid-level circulation, would it still be called Irene?

Here is the satallite by the way:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-vis-loop.html

--------------------
Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005



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damejune2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 237
Loc: Torrington, CT 41.80N 73.13W
Re: Latest Sat (Visible) [Re: CaneTrackerInSoFl]
      #46855 - Sun Aug 07 2005 03:00 PM

The NHC said that Irene would encounter shearing for a few more days and after that it's anyone's guess. It could go bye bye, it could miss the ridge and go west, it could get caught up in between the two and head out to sea. I'd like to see this thing just disappear, but that is unlikely, in my opinion.

--------------------
Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)


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