ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
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Loc: Valladolid,Mx
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If Irene can hold together for 2 more days or so,We could get somehing interesting.Looked into the history of Andrew,and that will really get you thinking about what Irene could POSSIBLE do.She seems to be taking a more westerly track if you follow the dots.Thunder storms have fired up again just to the east of the center.To early to write off this system yet.Here is Andrew's track http://www.hurricaneadvisories.com/andrew92.html
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
Edited by ftlaudbob (Mon Aug 08 2005 05:07 PM)
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Brad in Miami
Storm Tracker
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MapMaster:
If by "better" systems you mean "better looking" systems, that's exactly why science is so much more important than simple appearances. To some extent, classification/non-classification of a system that far out is often a guessing game because of the lack of surface observations and/or flight recon and/or ship observations. However, relying on the "look" of a system is far more unscientific than relying on what relied on to classify Irene: not merely the look, but also , Quickscat, etc. As we see from time to time, systems may look very much like tropical cyclones, but recon flights or surface observations reveal they are not; and sometimes systems do not look like tropical cyclones, but recon flights or surface data (e.g., reports from ships or islands) reveal that they are.
Based on the objective data - again, e.g., , Quickscat - it's hard to argue that this wasn't at some time at least a depression. And although deciding when/if to upgrade to Irene was a tough call, a good argument can be made that the should've upgraded EARLIER, when and Quickscat arguably supported the existence of a tropical storm.
You might have cause to argue against the 's classifications from time to time, but I don't think science is on your side in arguing that Irene was NEVER a tropical storm (or depression).
-Brad
Edited by Brad in Miami (Mon Aug 08 2005 05:03 PM)
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HF at work
Unregistered
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want to see something ridiculous? check the ghcc hi res shot zoomed way in near 16/62 (about 200 mi SE of puerto rico). that's a pretty tight little vortex for such a little puff of convection. wonder if the obs from the islands saw that thing last night? lots of shear ahead of it, so i wouldn't expect it to do anything.
HF 1909z08august
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MapMaster
Weather Guru
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There is NO comparison, really...Andrew did get to a point where is had a very high cp (1015 mb), BUT was able to maintain 45 mph winds due to the high surrounding pressures.
My comment about Andrew was just a nod to the idea that just because a storm is in an unfavorable environment, doesn't mean with time and distance it CAN'T overcome that.
With Irene---it's a real outside chance it'll even survive....there is NO Andrew potential seen here...the atmospheric conditions are way different.
MM
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MapMaster
Weather Guru
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Agreed it was, and is, a TD...not agreed on TS...as you said, previously there were even higher quiksat indications...but objective #s never showed a tropical storm...if they did, I stand to be corrected.
My main point...WHEN they upgraded it, it was NOT a tropical storm...and hasn't been since. made a judgement call...I just, in this case, disagree with them; usually, I agree, this is an unusual case. I think they got trigger happy.
MM
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MapMaster
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Thanks for your well reasoned, and reasonable, response, however!
MM
Edited by MapMaster (Mon Aug 08 2005 07:23 PM)
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MapMaster
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Oops, sorry ..I missed one thing...no, I did not mean 'better looking'..I meant better organized and more consistent (continuity) systems.
MM
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Steve H1
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
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Convection quickly developing into Irene, we'll see if it lasts. HF, was just looking at that area near Puerto Rico.....impressive for such a small feature. Back to Work.
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MapMaster
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That is amazing! An Emily type of vortex (Emily from, hmm....1999?)..was a tiny little storm east of the islands that blew up...then down.
Lotsa shear, but, it is trying....which I admit I see Irene doing again, more convincingly.
Time and data...we shall see.
MM
Edited by MapMaster (Mon Aug 08 2005 07:31 PM)
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Brad in Miami
Storm Tracker
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Actually, was just typing this before I read your second post:
I just looked at some of the early numbers, and I think you are right about that. So this might have been a much closer call at all times than I assumed.
Interesting, if nothing else.
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ronjon
Unregistered
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The convection is pulling in toward the east side of the depression again. Course the last several hours looks due westerly. Peeking at the water vapor, it looks like Irene will miss the weakness (trough) of Harvey and cruise more or less west or W-NW for the next two days. There is an upper level ridge building east of the big ULL north of the bahamas & I expect Irene to at some point get into a good environment to strengthen. The only limiting factor is dry air. Be real interesting to see where she goes after 60W - will the Atlantic Ridge fill in behind the ULL and leave Irene on the westerly course or will this weakness carry her north up the west side of Bermuda? So far the numerical models have been pretty useless with this storm.
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MapMaster
Weather Guru
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Maybe we are seeing cyclogenesis s of PR...lotta shear...but, very interesting.
MM
Edited by MapMaster (Mon Aug 08 2005 07:57 PM)
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Old Sailor
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Loc: Florida
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You be better off to register, then just throwing ideas out, The models have been doing good job, just Irene has not . a weak storm will allways travel to the west 270 to 280 degrees. If Irene gets back up to 40 to 50 miles per hour feel she start turn northward of NW.
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Rabbit
Weather Master
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Loc: Central Florida
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Harvey is starting to look like an system, and i expect it will be classified as so at 5pm; as for Irene, it may be reclassified a tropical storm on the next advisory
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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master
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Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
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It looks like Irene is heading west as it sparks back to life. It's almost totally due west.
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________2023 Forecast: 20/10/5________
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
Edited by rmbjoe1954 (Mon Aug 08 2005 08:21 PM)
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Brad in Miami
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Re: being almost due west
Don't forget: the official forecast only has it gaining .4 or .5 in latitude (I forgot which) the 1st 12 hours, so a few hours (or more) of nearly due west motion is not, standing alone, indicative of it being off the forecast track.
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damejune2
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Torrington, CT
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Got a link to support that? I'd like to check it out, thanks!!!!
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Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)
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MapMaster
Weather Guru
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I didn't (don't) see ANYTHING to suggest Irene would be upgraded...and it hasn't been.
And, adios to Harvey...definitely looks, and is, XT. Interesting little storm.
MM
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Clark
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MM, my only qualm with your thinking is this: how do you account for the QuikSCAT passes that showed non-rain flagged 35 & 40kt winds within the circulation on multiple occasions? The apperance of the storm was very similar to that of Franklin and Harvey -- among many others in the past -- at times, storms that we know to have been of tropical storm force from recon observations. It certainly did not have the classic look of a lowly-sheared tropical storm, but it had the winds, convection, and circulation to support the TS intensity. There have been many studies done on sheared TCs that show them to be more resilient to shear than originally thought -- and as has borne out this season. Just because there isn't a or persistent region of convection -- e.g. a better satellite apperance -- doesn't mean the winds aren't tropical-storm force. Remember -- the technique can be as much as 20kt off in the long-term mean -- even higher in some isolated spots (source: discussions with forecasters from the ; seasonal reports; storm discussions). QuikSCAT has some error inherent to the measurement system, but not that large.
Just my two cents.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
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superfly
Weather Watcher
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Loc: New Orleans
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The LLC seems a lot less defined in the last 2-3 hours and could be starting to become unwound. The center definitely looks open right now.
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