Lysis
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And to add to what Clark just said, do realize that by that time, those in the hurricane's path were well versed and weary of the season, and certianly took the storm in the proper light when they needed to do so. By that juncture in the "season from hell", so called, I don't think it was much of a suprise to the general public.
Edited by Lysis (Tue Aug 09 2005 08:06 PM)
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emackl
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Point well taken. I think the fact that it hit us so soon after Francis made some of the mets in the area even more worried about panic then usual.
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emackl
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Ironic part is everyone in my area was so tired that very few evacuated. Yes, they did take precautions but most stayed and rode it out. We were very lucky that we in Melbourne didn't take as much of the storm as was predicted.
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wulrich
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What happened to one of the pages? I guess things got a little to heated for people.
Irene defintely is a threat...the model trends continue to be the west, so we all have to keep our eyes and ears open to this puppy. She wouldn't have made it this long if she didn't want to stir up some sort of trouble.
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Don't diss the weather. If the weather didn't change every once in a while, 9/10ths of the people in this world couldn't start a conversation.
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lawgator1
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Quote:
Irene is looking a bit better organized, though the strongest convection is still displaced to the south of the surface circulation. .
Clark, do you think the center could be re-forming in that southward burst? In watching the IR radar loop, it sure seems as though the banding is centered there, and not to the north of the burst. I am suggesting this based on the IR loop -- if you believe that the low level circulation is still to the north within the system, is there some other tool I should be looking at in the future so as not to be confused between the cloud tops and where they seem to be centered, versus the low level circulation.
Thanks.
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tpratch
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Actually, I remember quite a lot of folks evacuating for Jeanne after having ridden out .
I hadn't caught on the loop soon enough, so I finally caved in to my wife's pleas for board removal. 2 days afterwards, I put them back up again *sigh*
I'm in a much better house for riding out these storms now, but because I have children, if a Cat 3+ comes towards the Space Coast, I'm going to be boarding up and taking off.
I agree that most mets didn't mention the chance of Jeanne heading our way (much less making landfall within 17 miles of ' eye) because we had just seen , and most of us were not mentally ready for another storm, even if we were physically prepared (my old next door neighbor still hadn't taken down most of his plywood by May when we finally moved  ).
Far too early to start preparing any specific location for Irene's arrival, simply because there's too much that could play out to make her nothing but a fish spinner. The next 3-4 days will do much to solidify her plans and there are many folks in Florida who, after last year, are already prepared for everything - we just need the go ahead to put up boards 
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doug
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Using the trade wind speeds over the Carrabean and the Atlantic basin and the SST's in the entire basin as the two primary factors and based on the level of activity to date the Tropical Storm Risk ( the insurance industry's contractor for hurricane activity predictions) has now revised its forecast effective August 5 to: 22+ storms, 11+ hurricanes and 6+intense.
90% increase in probability of US Atlantic coast hit.
These numbers and increased risk factors are consistent with those of Dr. Gray and the ...
Looks like a long summer and fall.
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doug
Edited by doug (Tue Aug 09 2005 08:23 PM)
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Ron Basso
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Interesting, the new 18Z BAM, A98E, & LBAR runs all keep the storm more on a W-NW heading and then sharply break west during the latter time periods. These models must be picking up on the Atlantic Ridge building north of the storm. The ridge axis is progged to move north to central FL peninsula by thursday and JAX by sunday. The general troughiness that has persisted over the SE appears to be lifting north or northeast and being replaced by higher pressure.
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_09.gif
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RJB
Edited by Ron Basso (Tue Aug 09 2005 08:28 PM)
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emackl
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Agreed! I have kids too so anything that has the potential to be cat 3 or higher and we're out of here. Honestly, tornados scare me more then the hurricanes. Speaking of that can someone explain why I heard last year that the Storms that come from the west coast of Florida produce more tornados then east coast landfalls??
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Steve H1
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Well, I for one don't want to go through that again! She is still a ways out there, and still not likely to visit us in Brevard Co. I'm watching the ULL that's heading to the east at about 32N. Looking at the WV loop, one would almost conclude that Irene would get swept out to sea by this feature. The only factor that would question that opinion is that its 10 degrees of latitude north, and a ridge could stay between the two keeping her on a westward course. Let's pull mfor the ULL to move SE!! Cheers!!
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Steve H1
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NWS Melbourne's only mention of Irene:
MARINE...NO HIGHLIGHTS. LIGHT SW/S FLOW LESS THAN 15 KT GRADUALLY
BECOMES SE BY LATE WEEK OR EARLY WEEKEND. SEAS 3 FEET OR LESS...WITH LIKELIHOOD OF INCREASING EASTERLY SWELL FROM TC IRENE BY LATE WEEK. FOR NOW...HAVE INCREASED SEAS SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY...AND MAY NEED TO TREND HIGHER IN LATER FORECASTS DEPENDING ON EVOLUTION OF TC.
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Lysis
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emackl , I don't really understand how that could be true. ... an east coast storm, was one of the largest tornado producers on record. And trust me... you have much more to fear from a hurricane if you live in coastal Florida.
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cheers
Edited by Lysis (Tue Aug 09 2005 08:33 PM)
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doug
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My sense is based on a quick look at the sat.pics through 4:35 is that Irene is back to TS status. The big convection mass to the south seems to show signs of being incorporated into the circulation which show more of a S signature. Good outflow now on the north and increasing to the nw and west...some convection in the center...best it has looked since formation in my opinion. No opinion on where she's heading past tomorrow...but certainly is due west for now.
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doug
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emackl
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Actually let me clarify. I'm afraid of the tornados produced by the hurricanes. Makes no difference if we live inland. Our house is very stable but throw a tornado on top of the hurricane, that scares me. About what I heard. I heard it after Charlie had all those tornados. One of the stations said that there are more if it's a west coast landfall. Not sure which station I heard it on.
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Lysis
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Anyone feel free to correct me, but I think that is an erroneous statement. It may be statistically true (or not), but I see no reason for the dynamics to be different so that there would be more tornadic activity with a west coast storm. The hurricane doesn't care where it landfalls. Look in the Hurricane ask/tell forum for a thread on hurricane-spawned tornadoes for a more detailed discussion. Perhaps you can ask the question there, and someone much wiser than I (which is like about 90% of the people here) will answer it.
To posts below:
Oh... I think you are talking about tornadoes that either coast recieves, and not what the storm produces (?). If you go to the thread in the ask tell forum, it explains the process of hurricane spawned tornados, and how they mostly form in the outer circulation and feeder bands. Perhaps that is what you are refering to. I think you guys should really take this line of thought there.
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cheers
Edited by Lysis (Tue Aug 09 2005 08:51 PM)
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NewWatcher
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I may be wrong but I always thought that we, on the east coast, got more tornados
out of the west coast landfalling canes when they were big enuff to be dragging
out over the atlantic during landfall etc.
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Pam in Volusia County
According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6
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NewWatcher
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it looks to me, like the "center"is near 22-55 now...yes?
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Pam in Volusia County
According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6
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Username
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i agree tornadoes in my opinion are scarier than hurricanes. You only get if you are lucky a 10-20 minute warning for a tornado and 379 mph winds in a rare f5. And w/ hurricane's a 3 or 5 day warning. Uh yeah the only difference is the widespread impact of a hurricane versus localized horrific damage of a tornado.
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Storm Hunter
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I would assume with the better presentation this afternoon, Irene should be back at TS status on next adv.
things look to be getting interesting in next day or two. The east coast of US is not out of the woods yet! From southern Florida to the Outer Banks (NC) need to keep an eye on Irene.
visible sat of IRENE
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VolusiaMike
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The 5PM advisory isn't out yet that I can find.
Anybody seen it yet?
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