nl
Storm Tracker
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Loc: nsb,fl
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what is that behind irene?
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Ron Basso
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When is the recon scheduled for Irene? Given the existing model uncertainty, I wouldn't be surprised to see a major track change after the recon locates the LLC and we get some sampling of the upper air environment surrounding the storm.
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RJB
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Old Sailor
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I allways go with the model groupings and has the best record for past history of Hurricanes then anybody else.
That being said I feel the models will back off some and looks more like a SC land fall, Watching Irene the last few hours she going allmost NW looks to be 310 to 315 degrees.
Dave
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Hootowl
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Loc: New Port Richey, Fl
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The last I saw the recons we scheduled for late tomorrow afternoon. Don't know if that has changed. I did notice the following when I checked on our point forcast from NOAA this afternoon......
LONG TERM (SAT NIGHT-THU)...EXTENDED MODELS HAVE COME MORE IN LINE
WITH A MORE TYPICAL LATE SUMMER PATTERN. WEAK UPPER RIDGING TO HOLD
OVER THE REGION THRU THE PERIOD WHILE SERIES OF SOMEWHAT WEAK VORT
MAXES ROTATE IN THE OVERALL FLOW. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...BERMUDA HIGH...TO RIDGE ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AS
WELL. THESE FEATURES TO CREATE MAINLY EASTERLY FLOW AND GENERATE
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION ALONG SEA BREEZES AND OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES.
These guys (our point forecast) are pretty much on the money. (I know they were last year - I depended on them a lot - didn't know about this forum then) I don't know exactly when or how strong they are depending on the ridge (Bermuda High) to be across Florida - but it could make a big difference.
Sorry for the long post. 
Dotty
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ROB IN PA
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A quick question on the track. The has Irene of NC coast by Tuesday. If she is tracking NW and stays the course she would go right up the Cheasepeke bay to Baltimore. My question is how feasable would that be and has it happened before. Also let say she is cat 2 what kind of damage would that area get. Again thanks to all for your info.
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HanKFranK
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sailor... as per your movement take.. you may be right, but i'm reckoning that the center is still on the western side of the convective shield... the 300-ish track is probably good. as far as you calling it here to sc... well, don't think it'll make it that far west. the globals have been consistently taking irene too far to the north.. except for the euro. late in the forecast period they tend to show erratic movement.. probably because the ridge is building and they're responding too slow/jamming it into the ridge. if you look at what the ensembles show compared to what the globals are progging.. they're probably underdoing the strength and resilience of the ridging near the mid atlantic. if i was a bettin' man, i'd go with north carolina. the offshore option is probably #2... sc is #3.
other stuff... noticed that the increase in convection/lower shear values that have been overspreading the basin... an effect.. are now getting into the eastern atlantic. that wave near 40-45w has good convergence.. in spite of low amplitude.. based on the evolving pattern that thing needs to be watched. the high amplitude wave coming off africa will be a candidate in a few days as well.
noticed pressure falls in the gulf on the euro run joe b showed this morning. not sure which feature that's related to. maybe a weak wave responding to pattern forcing. have to see if that persists from run to run.
HF 0010z12august
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nl
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what is that behind irene?
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Kevin
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On the topic of the new Atlantic wave...here is the 8:05 PM TWD take...
TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 100 NM W OF THE AFRICAN COAST ALONG
18W/19W S OF 19N MOVING W 5-10 KT. A 1008 MB LOW IS LOCATED
ALONG THE WAVE ABOUT 70 NM NW OF DAKAR NEAR 15N18.5W BASED ON
WIND AND PRES OBSERVATIONS FROM NEARBY SHIPS AND LAND STATIONS.
THE WAVE IS DEVELOPING A WELL-DEFINED SIGNATURE WITH MID-LEVEL
CLOUDINESS BEGINNING TO "SPILL OVER" THE WAVE AXIS FROM THE
E...AND CONVECTION BEING ORIENTED ALONG A LINE FROM S OF THE
CAPE VERDES NEWD INTO W/CNTRL MAURITANIA. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG INLAND OVER WRN MAURITANIA AND SENEGAL FROM
13N-22N BETWEEN 11W-17W. OTHER DEEP CONVECTION IS FARTHER W
ALONG THE . SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS ON FRI AND SAT AS THE WAVE PASSES BY.
Already shows an area of developing low pressure. I'd expect an invest on this wave, provided that it holds together well enough.
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Spoken
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I've found an answer to a remarkably ignorant question I'd submitted yesterday (here at this forum) concerning a ridge shielding the southeastern U.S. from Irene. Please note that I've taken it upon myself to delete the question.
However, as long as I've surely taken up other people's time even if merely to read the silly thing, I've found what appears to be a rather comprehensive glossary at WeatherQuests. Their glossary is currently located at http://www.weatherquests.com/services/knowledge/glossary/
Granted, their glossary appears to be missing such terms as Prepapathy, Wave Monger and Wishcasting – and several others – which are explained under "TERMS TO KNOW" at http://flhurricane.com/general.php
Also, please let me know if WeatherQuests is a competitor to one of this site's supporters (and I'll gladly delete this submission too). And thanks again!!
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Old Sailor
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Hank:
I'm not trying to or wish Irene on SC, guess we all see things in the models and ridge building, I was just lookiing at the big picture standing back, granted Eastern NC sticks out like catch basin and history has proven NC bound to get hit few times.
Without knowing the true center of Irene it is hard to say if 300 or 310.
Dave
wish it here? no, i know you're not. i'm not certain, but got a hunch it doesn't get over here. of course, the latest is sending it this way. that'd better not keep up. -HF
Edited by HanKFranK (Fri Aug 12 2005 12:54 AM)
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Old Sailor
Storm Tracker
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Latest scat out 3.0/3.0 still at 50mph, did the math on Lon/Lat track is about 300 degrees.
PS looking back a 11:00AM track Irene a little north .2 degrees of that track.
Dave
that's if you believe the scatt/dvorak position. the last light visibles do suggest the center is on the west side. -HF
I was going from the last scatt positon to now, only way of judging till Recon get there finds the true center.
Dave
Edited by Old Sailor (Fri Aug 12 2005 01:15 AM)
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LI Phil
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>>> Granted, their glossary appears to be missing such terms as Prepapathy, Wave Monger and Wishcasting – and several others – which are explained under "TERMS TO KNOW" at http://flhurricane.com/general.php
it's also missing "banned" and "on probation"...terms you don't want to learn... 
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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nl
Storm Tracker
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i was asking what is that behind irene? cause i know im not just seeing things on this floater. it looks like something is trying too catch her. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html
check that out i know im not seeing things and tell me what that is.
that's fernanda and greg. wrong ocean, man. -HF
Edited by HanKFranK (Fri Aug 12 2005 12:57 AM)
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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Port Orange, FL
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NL try putting on the lat/lon button and you will see that you are not watching
Irene......
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Pam in Volusia County
According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6
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pedro
Unregistered
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That is not irene you are looking at
you should register, man. your sig could be VOTE FOR PEDRO. -HF
Edited by HanKFranK (Fri Aug 12 2005 12:59 AM)
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pedro
Unregistered
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The models have made a big shift to the west the last past hours go check were the model is know very close to south carolina we will have to wait and see what happends dont think florida is still out of the woods yet
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damejune2
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She'd better hurry up then and get going!!! She is almost due west of Miami now, maybe even a little north of that lat/lon......if florida takes a hit from her i'd have to say further up the coast, like maybe the Cape or Jax.
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Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)
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damejune2
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How reliable is this Navy site concerning the future path of the storm and or any storm??
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/ATL/09L.IRENE/ssmi/gif/full/Latest.html
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Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)
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L.I.
Registered User
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Nobody is talking about the possibility of Irene making it to Long Island. She seems to be following the same path as Gloria. Is there a chance Irene will make it as far north as Long Island and then recurve out.
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damejune2
Storm Tracker
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LilPhil - I clicked on the link that was in the quote section of your post and nothing happens - i get an error page. I was going to read the terms but cant find them. Am i not looking good enough?
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Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)
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