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Eresto Staying out to Sea. 99L is a low development chance (20%) system approaching the eastern Caribbean.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 312 (Nate) , Major: 330 (Maria) Florida - Any: 340 (Irma) Major: 340 (Irma)
42.0N 43.2W
Wind: 45MPH
Pres: 1007mb
Moving:
Ne at 16 mph
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Archives 2000s >> 2006 Forecast Lounge

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NONAME
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 136
The Future Of Irene
      #47835 - Sat Aug 13 2005 12:38 PM

I dont think the model are doing a very good job anymore I cant see soon to be TD 10 going to be a fish spinner sence it is so far south. It just got away from the ITZC it really hard to image it not hiting land the only storm i ever seen to be a fish spinner that far south and that close to the Antillies is Cindy of 99 and that was only because of Emily having a larger ciculation.

Once Again sorry about my Spelling

(Forecasts based on a 'gut' feeling or a huncn belong here. Actually, the southern latitude has nothing to do with whether a storm will hit land or not - upper level atmospheric flow patterns will determine where any given storm will move. Normally at this time of year a strong high pressure ridge has established itself in the Atlantic basin and storms move east to west along the southern extent of that ridge - sometimes rather rapidly. This year the ridge has not yet established itself.)

Edited by Ed Dunham (Sat Aug 13 2005 12:59 PM)


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: The Future Of Irene [Re: NONAME]
      #47837 - Sat Aug 13 2005 01:28 PM

Regarding past history on storms that passed through or near 14N 45W: From 1892 through 1992, 26 storms met this category. Of the 26, 8 made landfall and 18 did not. While a couple of the storms simply faded, most of those that did not hit land moved to the northwest and remained at sea.
ED


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