Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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I am reasonably confident that IF Izzy does make it back to open water he will redevelop. Even if he gets downgrade to a TD status, if he gets back in the BOC I feel that redevelopment is a sure thing...
The key word is IF.... the expected turn to the northwest is not expected until later today or tonight... so we still need to wait and see if it happens.. just a slow drift south does not necessary preclude the potential for the northwest track... now if Izzy was tracking along at 10-15 mph to the south... yeah... but its drifting rather slowing right now... so I have not given up on the forecasted turn... YET
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SirCane
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Pensacola, FL
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An Opal like scenerio is in play. If you go back and look at Opal's track, she formed ON the center of the Yucatan Peninsula, moved North, then WSW into the North BOC, took a turn toward the North and Northeast.
Conditions will be ripe. Isidore's pressure is still very low. Rapid intensification could occur.
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Direct Hits:
Hurricane Erin (1995) 100 mph
Hurricane Opal (1995) 115 mph
Hurricane Ivan (2004) 130 mph
Hurricane Dennis (2005) 120 mph
http://www.hardcoreweather.com
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Anonymous
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I am going to show my ignorance: Is there a possiblitlity that with the downgraded wind speeds etc that Izzy would be more susceptible to the pull and pushes of trough interacting with surrounding atmospheres thereby making it more likely that Izzy would be influenced rather than less likely? Information on this would be appreciated.
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Frank P
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Looking at the last few vis GOES sat loop there appears the "HINT" of a more west motion, or possibly just south of due west motion... need to monitor to see if this indeed is a trend...
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Frank P
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How's this for going out on a limb... I think the system WILL go north and start than northerly component prior to midnight tonight... if I'm wrong ... sue me.. hehe
I like grilled crow breast quite well cause I have developed a taste for it over time dealing with these crazy unpredicable systems..
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Anonymous
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We have a "pay-per-view" weather service for our offshore operations here in S. LA and the last loop on the visible (probably the same one you saw for free" was 7 minutes old and Iz seems to be in the stationary, wobble mode for now. No problem with predicting a N/NW track. BTW - we made our way to the beach in G'Port, LB, and PC two days after Camille. I remember it looking like a landfill.
Mr Jimmy - S LA
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Rickinmobile
Unregistered
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Izzy ain't done yet....will emerge back over land...track will be somewhat different...
depending on speed once it goes north...will depend on what it will do....if it lingers long enough...it will get to be a major hurricane...
cat 2 or so hitting Lousiana...is Joe Bastardi's prediction...
I still say cat 4-5, east of that...let's wait and see
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Frank P
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After watching the IR and water vapor I didn't detect any further west motion... what I saw on the visible could have been just a slight wobble to west, but overall not significant right now anyway because it does look stationary... and then again after watching this thing for 5 days I might also be somewhat delusional....
I remember the day after Camille and I had to climb over a debris stack about 30 feet high just to get to highway 90 and the beach... and there was nothing left standing anywhere... remember seeing some dead cows lying in the highway too... to this day I have never figure where and the heck they came from cause no one had any cows within 10 miles of my neighborhood...
Edited by Frank P (Mon Sep 23 2002 02:39 PM)
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Frank P
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I'm been leaning towards a LA landfall for the past day or so... still think it will be west of New Orleans, and it will be a significant storm... no less than a strong 2 but no greater than a 3...
and try not to get Shawn all fired up either... hehe
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Kimster
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Loc: Dunedin, FL
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Ever consider the remote chance that we could have two hurricanes in the GOM at the same time? If Izzy slows down and TD13 keeps moving along...anyone's thoughts on this?
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Frank P
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Per the ....
Boy is that a kick in the ass right now... Show me one model that predicted any eastward dirft...
nhc saying it will begin a slow NW motion later today or tonight...
What a tough storm to call... Are we through with surprises yet... I THINK NOT
If it keeps the eastward drift it will surely wake up all the Florida posters... hehe
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BabyCat
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Loc: New Orleans, La.
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Oh I'm awake and the thought did occur to me.
Izzy has been by far the most irritating storm in my memory. I'm hoping it will weaken enough to get picked up by the trough but I see the pressure is still too low to realistically believe in the demise just yet.
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Frank P
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If it has completed its westard track, and it does start a northwestward motion from no farther west than it is located right now, it stands to reason that the ultimate forecast of where this thing ends up has just change significantly.... more to the east... IMO (provided of couse it doesn't continue on the eastward drift)...
So through out all the models one more time as they have the system starting the nw track from the BOC, not the Yucatan Pensula....... if all this comes to fruition....
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StormHound
Weather Guru
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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Old Izzy is full of surprises. This would make for a landfall more to the east if he starts the north turn where he's at. That is, if he survives, which he should. One has to begin to wonder how long he can survive while on the Yucatan. As long as he has some organization he'll rebuild quickly once over water.
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Storm Hound
Computer Geek
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J.J.
Unregistered
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Am I the only person skeptical of Isidore's northern turn? Remember how Keith and Mitch didn't make the northern turns they were forecast to for days in advance? So I think it will be with Isidore. It seems that the models have a fundamental flaw in this area of the Atlantic; I would not be surprised if Isidore ends up weaker than forecast. I won't even rule out dissipation before it reaches the Gulf again--*if* it reaches the water.
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HanKFranK
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a storm of isidore's magnitude would generally have about four or five days of life in it after landfall.. where it could re-emerge and start back up. personally think that intensity and track are now completely shot.. but im 100% against it dying over the yucatan. the center would redevelop offshore if the main one was dying.. circulation envelope with this system is huge. probably a very weak surface system that comes off.. the upper system should be quite healthy unless it spends a couple more days onshore.. so if it emerges today or tomorrow look for it to intensify back to hurricane fairly quickly. by the way, think the further east and weaker track option.. #3.. is on the table now.
td13.. recon is there. already finding 39kt flight level winds, no vortex message yet. even if the center is weak this system is moving so quickly that its improbably that it isnt producing gale force winds, so this should be lili today.
kyle is drifting wsw finally. if it can deepen some then the deep layer flow will push it wsw faster.
bastardi's pinwheel low is up off the mid atlantic today as a low cloud swirl with enhanced precip ahead. still maybe another disturbance that will evolve near the bahamas as the upper system leaves. and the wave 35-40w is depressed but some of its energy has made it west. the new emergent wave is still energetic, but gets the upper trough pretty shortly.
again i reiterate.. even if the center of isidore remains over land for days until it dies, a new one would probably develop offshore. all you folks calling it dead have a flailing beast and one nail about halfway driven through the coffin lid.
HF 1536z23september
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anon
Unregistered
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I've been watching the GOES vis loop and for the life of me I just don't see the eastward drift... It looks stationary at best.... still pulling in a lot of energy from the BOC and the GOM....
JJ you might be right, it might not ever get back over water and I think that's certainly a possibility as every option with this system is... but I'm still leaning that it will get back over water by early Tuesday morning or perhaps very late tonight.. then it will depend on how fast it moves as to how strong it redevelops.... if past history is any indication, this is one of the slowest moving storms I've tracked in a while....
Frank P...
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Floridacane
Weather Guru
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Loc: Palm Bay, Florida
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Hey HankFrank, What do you gather from this eastward drift. Just when all of us in Florida and Alabama think we're pretty safe, Izzy starts east. Could the eye redevelop to the east of the Yucatan? And what would that do to the future track of Izzy? Sorry about all of the questions, but Eastward made me nervous!! 
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What's brewin' everyone?
Lori
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Anonymous
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We now have Lili. Check the site -- it's named. Recon fixed center at about 12.4/59.45, just south of the 11 am estimate.
-Brad (Miami)
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Anonymous
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And also: max sustained winds 50 mph per update.
-Brad
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