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Archives 2000s >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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superfly
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sat
Posts: 33
Loc: New Orleans
Re: Undramatic Pause [Re: Brad in Miami]
      #48405 - Sat Aug 20 2005 04:23 AM

Quote:

Although former TD10 (if you can even call it that anymore; what was the LLC apparently raced ahead and would be much farther west if it had survived) is certainly worth keeping an eye on, the convection tonight is not indicative of any organization.




There's still some sort of broad circulation which has indeed raced ahead near 22N/71W.


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Cycloneye11
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Mon
Posts: 70
Loc: San Juan,Puerto Rico
Re: Undramatic Pause [Re: superfly]
      #48406 - Sat Aug 20 2005 07:53 AM

VERY GOOD LOOKING TROPICAL WAVE HAS EXITED AFRICA IN THE PAST 12
HOURS AND GLOBAL MODELS SEEM TO LIKE THIS WAVE TO VARYING DEGREES.
THIS MAY BE ONE OF THE BEST WAVES OF THE SEASON THUS FAR...AND BEARS
WATCHING FOR THE LOCAL AREA. MODELS BRING A TROPICAL LOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS WAVE TO THE VICINITY OF THE NE CARIB FOR NEXT SUN-MON WITH
ANOTHER WELL ORGANIZED WAVE OR LOW FOLLOWING NOT FAR BEHIND. THIS
COMING WEEK MAY THEREFORE YIELD ANOTHER SPURT OF TROPICAL ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC BASIN. LET`S ALL BE READY!

The above remarks from the discussion of the NWS San Juan.It looks like the quiet period is comming to an end very soon.


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B.C.Francis
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 323
Loc: Indiatlantic Florida
Re: Undramatic Pause [Re: Cycloneye11]
      #48407 - Sat Aug 20 2005 08:38 AM

I think your right Cy. Been kinda of peaceful in the tropics which is good for us coastal dwellers. End of this month and into September might just be a whole new ball of wax. The renovation on the Crowne Plaza where I`m the exec. chef that got destroyed by Jeanne last year is scheduled to be completed in two months. Believe me, I`ve waited over 10 months plus for this and the next two months is going to be interesting when it comes to hurricanes forming to east south east of us. The african wave train is about to leave the station it looks like.... I hope they spin the fish and stay away from the Space Coast..........Weatherchef...........

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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
Re: Undramatic Pause [Re: B.C.Francis]
      #48409 - Sat Aug 20 2005 09:28 AM

This wave coming off Africa looks to be building some rather impressive ordinary convection already, though there aren't signs of rotation yet:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/eatl-ir4-loop.html

I checked the models. Most of them strengthen or maintain the wave across the Atlantic, but then the models aren't very good at predicting unformed cyclones.

I also checked the SAL - it seems quite weak right now out in the Atlantic, and quickly dispersing:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/wavetrak/winds/m8g10split.html

The biggest problem looks to be wind shear in the basin. It isn't super strong, but it is there:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/europe/winds/wm7shr.html

This is one wave to watch in my mind.

Edited by Random Chaos (Sat Aug 20 2005 09:32 AM)


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NONAME
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 136
Re: Undramatic Pause [Re: Random Chaos]
      #48410 - Sat Aug 20 2005 09:35 AM

What are all the factor that may cause it to move in the future if it devlops is more of a chance to be a fish spinner or a land falling storm. Also NHC said that there is low on it around 18n 16w i think that a little high but usally they drop a little cause the Itzc is located a litt more north over Africa then over the Alantic Ocean from my obsevations.

--------------------
I am a young Weather enthusiast and really want to get to college in a couple of years for meteorology.


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H20 temp
Unregistered




Water Temps *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* [Re: native]
      #48414 - Sat Aug 20 2005 11:25 AM

This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard

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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
THings I'm watching [Re: H20 temp]
      #48421 - Sat Aug 20 2005 01:47 PM

I'm watching: SE Yucatan and wave approaching along/near 83W; ex10 which I think has a legitimate shot to go; the old front off of the US East Coast (probably nothing tropical but there is a surface low due east of Maine, some turning due east of New Jersey, and some turning due east of North Carolina; and finally the wave off of Africa which looks like the best one all season. Things should be heating up shortly.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

Do a visible, animated zoom along the front of the US East Coast to see that low east of ME and the turning E of NC and NJ.

Steve


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NONAME
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 136
Re: THings I'm watching [Re: Steve]
      #48423 - Sat Aug 20 2005 02:13 PM

How long is it going to take navy to put a invest on the wave off of africa? What do they go by to declare an invest?

--------------------
I am a young Weather enthusiast and really want to get to college in a couple of years for meteorology.


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B.C.Francis
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 323
Loc: Indiatlantic Florida
All a board [Re: Steve]
      #48424 - Sat Aug 20 2005 02:15 PM

Looks like the locomotive of the African wave train is leaving the station and heading to all points west. Whats going on in front of this baby ?. Are conditions ripe for development ?...Fill me in......Weatherchef..... web page

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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
Re: THings I'm watching [Re: Steve]
      #48425 - Sat Aug 20 2005 02:43 PM

Steve, I hate to say it but the only thing I see turning on that sat image is a land-locked low just north of Lake Superior. Even X-TD-10 isn't rotating right now, which is a change since yesterday when it was rotating, albiet very slowly.

However, I've been watching the African wave for a day now (since just before it left the coast). Conditions are ripe for it to grow, with only shear as an issue. Moist air is growing moister ahead of it. SAL is weakening. The models support development, which is rare - models rarely pick up on non-closed lows and develop them very well. SST's are quite warm, especially near the US coast where they are extremely warm! I don't see much that will impede development as long as it stays toward to the south of most of the shear.


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Rabbit
Weather Master


Reged: Sat
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
Re: THings I'm watching [Re: Random Chaos]
      #48426 - Sat Aug 20 2005 02:59 PM

i am fairly confident in saying that the African wave, although strong enough to eliminate the dry air in the region, will NOT develop. If you look closely at the satellite image, the center is well north of the convection, and it is in an area of stable air over cooler waters

as for XTD10, i have pretty much given up on that


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
Re: THings I'm watching [Re: Rabbit]
      #48428 - Sat Aug 20 2005 03:06 PM

I disagree, Rabbit. It won't develop immediately, but it is becoming better organized all the time with it's convection. It has strong model support, the driest air is leaving the region, and upper-level conditions are favorable for development. Water temperatures are above average and above the critical threshold for development. After some time to organize, I see no reason why this one shouldn't develop. Thankfully, that should mean that it'll ultimately be one for the fish, but it'll still be worth watching.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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Kevin
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
Re: THings I'm watching [Re: Clark]
      #48429 - Sat Aug 20 2005 03:23 PM

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/sat-bin/display10.cgi

Actually, I see some hints of what is maybe some broad mid-level turning near the deeper convection.

I think that this wave will develop gradually, but not rapidly, over the next few days.


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H2O temp
Unregistered




Re: Water Temps *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* [Re: H20 temp]
      #48431 - Sat Aug 20 2005 05:15 PM

So, why is post stating the water temp was 92 degrees last Wed at St. Pete Beach, sent to the graveyard? It was an amplification (in agreement with another poster about Gulf Water temps) of the other post I was responding too. Not offensive, not duplicative. Not rude.

Post a link for the info...can't ...it was a weather report on the local tv station.

Guys, I am a long time user of this site (as I am sure you can see)...maybe someone is getting a little too impressed with their moderator status?

FWIW...and will probably be censored too....

The post was probably graveyarded because of it's one-line nature without anything to back it up, but I'm not sure as I don't know who did it. If it was a media report, please state that. Water temperatures have been warm there -- The Weather Channel maps that they show here on TV show some reports of 95 degree waters -- but you have to remember that those are often right along the shore and are a reflection of the daily changes in the air temperature. At night, those same waters that are 92 during the day are generally going to be about 82. Water temperatures off-shore, where it matters for the storms, are just in the mid-upper 80s as the water is deeper and air temperatures over the open waters are cooler, among other factors. --Clark

Edited by Clark (Sat Aug 20 2005 06:39 PM)


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dem05
User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 368
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
Re: THings I'm watching [Re: Steve]
      #48432 - Sat Aug 20 2005 05:59 PM

As best I can remeber, today is the first day that our old TD has been able to maintain thunderstorms all day long. Nothing at the surface, but the presentation seems a little better with time too. I wonder what tomorrow might bring, this system seems to always generate storms at night, so I would have to expect it will continue to maintain them until then. Maybe if it keeps it up through the day tomorrow...we may have something we'll need to watch. NHC is now stating the disturbance is under favorable conditions.
San Juan Longrange Loop: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.tjua.shtml
Vis: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html
SW: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir2-loop.html


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
Re: THings I'm watching [Re: dem05]
      #48435 - Sat Aug 20 2005 06:55 PM

If you want to talk about SSTs, take a look at the SSD (Satellite Services Division):

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/SST/PAC/20.jpg

As you can see we have very warm SSTs near Florida, though not into the lower-mid ninties. As Clark said, it's probably near-shore surface temps that warmed from daytime heating. Here in MD we're running 82-86F temps in the bay, and that is very high. Usually we sit in the upper 70's or perhaps very low 80's during the summer.

Bear in mind that hurricanes stir up subsurface water through wave action, and if the near-surface subsurface water temps aren't near surface temps the hurricane won't strengthen as much. Normal wave actions help equalize the temps between surface and near-surface. Coastlines don't have the depth to have much divergent temps, so the just ordinary wave action won't cause the surface temps to drop as much, so you'll get higher temps regularly near shorelines than in open water.

Just a couple conversions:
25C = 77F
30C = 86F
35C = 95F

Edited by Random Chaos (Sat Aug 20 2005 06:59 PM)


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
Re: THings I'm watching [Re: dem05]
      #48436 - Sat Aug 20 2005 07:26 PM

Well, the feature has been able to maintain thunderstorms for some time now, just not in any organized fashion. It looks like, though, that ex-TD10 might have spun up a mid-level circulation, but the convection will have to maintain itself for some time yet to come before it becomes something really to watch again. Conditions are favorable for something to happen, so I guess my proclamation of it being dead might be premature...only by a little for now.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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Keith234
Storm Chaser


Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
Re: THings I'm watching [Re: Random Chaos]
      #48437 - Sat Aug 20 2005 07:29 PM

talking about celcius if you want an easy way to remember is to memorize 5 numbers.
-10 C=14 C
0 C 32 F
10c 50 F
20c 68 f
30c 86 f
40c 104f

for all numbers in between there is a 2 degree F interval for 1 degree of C.

Hope that helps

interval is acutally 1.8F/1C. -HF

Edited by HanKFranK (Sat Aug 20 2005 07:56 PM)


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dem05
User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 368
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
Re: THings I'm watching [Re: Clark]
      #48438 - Sat Aug 20 2005 07:39 PM

That's what I'm seeing/thinking too, Clark. Definately no surface signature there at this time. As of now, and as this system moves further from Puerto Rico...I hope people remeber curvature of the earth and any circulation that may develop in the radar representation would not necissarily be indicative of anything on the surface. I will be curious to see if the system can continue or improve its satellite signature over the next 24-36 hours. If it doesn't, it's once again taken one step forward and two steps back.

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dem05
User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 368
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
Re: THings I'm watching [Re: Keith234]
      #48439 - Sat Aug 20 2005 07:48 PM

This is the most accurate conversion from celsius to fareinheit:
(degrees C X 1.8) + 32 = degrees F
Example:
(100 degrees C X 1.8) = 32 + 212 Degrees F (Boiling Point of water)

Conversely...Fareinheit to celsius is:
(degrees F - 32) / 1.8 = Degrees C
(212 degrees F - 32) / 1.8 = (180 degrees F)/ 1.8 = 100 degrees C (boiling point of water)

Edited by dem05 (Sat Aug 20 2005 07:55 PM)


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