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Archives 2000s >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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Re: 97 Invest [Re: HURRICANELONNY]
      #48491 - Sun Aug 21 2005 07:40 PM

taking a look at this computer runs on wave. I notice now near the end of runs there is a turn back to right or north, late in the period instead of straight across the GOM to the west. Could this be a sign that the high may break down over the se late in the forecast? But note something has to develope before anything happens and with the wave north of the islands.... things could setup for a interesting week next week!

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Re: 97 Invest [Re: John03]
      #48494 - Sun Aug 21 2005 07:53 PM

check the time of those runs. i think they were yesterday!

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Re: Possible BOC system [Re: Rich B]
      #48495 - Sun Aug 21 2005 07:57 PM

Rich, I'm not sure if this low is even going to make it off of land. It's over the long, narrow west-east part of southern Mexico and heading west right now. Steering flow is out of the east with very little to no component that would send it a bit towards the north as the upper-level high pressure area has shifted towards the west over the past couple of days. It's broad and could always reform over water, but given what is there now, I'm not convinced it'll make it up into our basin. If it does get over water, all bets are probably off, though I think any significant development is going to be limited by proximity to land and a short time period that it'll remain over water before going back inland.

There is some model support for it moving west and ultimately west-southwest into the Eastern Pacific basin and spinning up there just off of the Mexican coast, however. I'm not sure I'd put much stock in the models for something like this anyway, given the proximity to land and the reorganization cycles these things can go through, but it's a trend that bears watching. The NOGAPS had been the one calling for this to maybe do something in the S. Bay of Campeche, but now has largely backed off of that idea.

As for the rest of the tropics....the 8:05p TWD upgraded the E. Atlantic feature to a special feature, suggesting possible development within 36hr. It needs that time to consolidate, but should do so through time. Slow development is possible from there, with the most likely end-game scenario taking it northward about 60W. We'll know more in a few days, though, once and if it develops. Elsewhere, there's not much to follow...still some model interest in the remnants of TD 10 (whichever piece of it they may be), whether in the Gulf Stream off of SC like Alex last year or in the Gulf. Depends on how strong the coming frontal boundary & trough is as to what the more likely scenario is...stronger boundary means the remnants are more likely to be pulled north. In any case, I don't expect (re)development out of this one until the middle of next week at the earliest...just doesn't have the longevity or the organization.

Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)

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transition time? [Re: Clark]
      #48496 - Sun Aug 21 2005 08:25 PM

models are really perking up and showing some activity on the way now... 16 day GFS reads like a smorgasboard of tropical systems... so we're probably going to see the real thing again this coming week. here's the rundown (somewhat a rehash of concepts already tossed out).
BoC system: there is a solid mid level turning inland near the SE rim of the bay. convection is flaring all around and near shore... if it doesn't continue due west and keep scraping along the coastline it should have a solid chance at developing. i don't think this system will get distant enough from the shore or stay over water long enough for significant development.. but it isn't moving very quickly and the center could jump offshore. this system has the highest chance of classification the soonest. it may just be a depression based on proximity to the coast.. or more like bret and gert earlier this year. expect an invest at any time.
97L: globals pretty unanimous about developing this feature. it's not organizing quickly which is slantng the odds against early recurvature.. but they're still highly in favor of it turning up near 55-60w later next week.
xtd 10: i won't stop mentioning it until it goes away, and it hasn't. i doubt it'll ever be rechristened 10 due to the time that has passed and the changes it's undergone, but it is some vestige of this persistent system. the globals are showing fairly dramatic, pattern-forced pressure falls near the southeast u.s. coast.. and are developing low pressure near/east of florida btw tue-wed. the advancing trough is shown by some to yank it up along/just off the coast.. on others it is bypassed and drifts over florida during the weekend.. presumably into the gulf after that time. i'll briefly discuss the synoptic conditions around this later...
behind 97L: you guessed it.. a sort of wave train is showing up in the wake of 97L. GFS has the follow on staying low and approaching the s.e. us coast around labor day weekend... when the GFS starts showing stuff like that i like to stock up on caffeinated beverages for the long nights ahead.
pattern in general: had a blazing hot august day here, but a trough is about to settle into the east.. and lift out next week. the basin in general on wv doesn't look like the andy warhol psychedelic upper low trip anymore. late next week heights are shown to be building significantly in eastern canada.. the notorious newfoundland wheel is in place around the first few days of september. that kind of pattern in the heart of the hurricane season is very bad juju, as if you have a storm in place to take advantage of it... somebody gets burned.
expect the next couple of weeks to be less of the irene/td 10 type headscratching over weak systems.. and more of the traditional cv season action.
HF 0025z22august

Edited by HanKFranK (Sun Aug 21 2005 08:28 PM)

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Home brew???? [Re: HanKFranK]
      #48497 - Sun Aug 21 2005 08:55 PM

Here is the local take from a West Palm Beach meteorologist, what do you guys think?

A flood potential situation could develop by mid week as GFS consistently has shown a tropical wave stalling and becoming a weak tropical type low to stall right near our area. This feature looks to hang around for awhile right into the weekend. This situation given the very warm waters off our coast would help to enhance convective heavy to strong storms with the potential near the coast as well as inland that may break the consistent high heat and moisture dynamics that has plagued our area especialy this month so far. So, we have plenty of time to prepare for this significant rain event. This is based on my experience what I looked at as a very good relief but maybe getting more rain then what we can handle given with this potential tropical low to develop and stall. A strong high pressure to the north will block it from going north and will being captured with mid upper trough aloft. This situation bears close watch for flood potential problems. This system looks to be locked into place for awhile from Wednesday right into the weekend as it looks now maybe even longer.
I Will keep watching this situation. Skywarn members may need to keep a very close eye on this significant maybe serious flooding situation that could hit our area. As I said again 9-10 inches is what I am calling for during August at least and the official NOAA outlook calls for above normal rainfall.

We could easily go over that rainfall like in June. This last week of August looks to be a real active rainy week. So with all that to make up this could be the one to make up for since we only have several inches at the airport this month so far! Hopefully it wont be that bad but better prepare than be sorry later.

Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.

Live weather from my backyard:

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Old Sailor
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First Model Runs NHC on 97L [Re: WXMAN RICHIE]
      #48498 - Sun Aug 21 2005 09:18 PM

Here are the first model runs on 97L, May not be a fish spinner..



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050822 0000 050822 1200 050823 0000 050823 1200

BAMD 12.5N 26.7W 13.2N 28.7W 13.9N 30.7W 14.8N 33.0W
BAMM 12.5N 26.7W 13.4N 28.8W 14.3N 31.0W 15.3N 33.6W
A98E 12.5N 26.7W 12.8N 29.4W 13.4N 32.1W 14.3N 34.7W
LBAR 12.5N 26.7W 13.3N 29.4W 14.5N 32.4W 15.8N 35.8W

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050824 0000 050825 0000 050826 0000 050827 0000

BAMD 15.7N 35.3W 17.5N 39.5W 18.9N 42.8W 20.5N 46.5W
BAMM 16.3N 36.2W 18.1N 40.8W 19.6N 44.4W 21.1N 48.3W
A98E 15.3N 37.2W 16.9N 42.1W 18.4N 46.5W 20.8N 49.8W
LBAR 17.2N 38.9W 19.6N 43.8W 20.3N 47.1W 17.2N 51.5W


Sorry left out Graph here it is.... 97L plot NHC

Edited by Old Sailor (Sun Aug 21 2005 09:24 PM)

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what's this [Re: Jekyhe904]
      #48499 - Sun Aug 21 2005 09:37 PM

There are 3 systems this Sunday afternoon capable of development
within the next 5 days. The first is coming into the extreme southern Gulf of Mexico from off the Yucatan and has potential to quickly spin up like Gert and Bret did earlier this season, but just as they did, this would stay south in its final move to the coast, reaching though coast near Tuxpan Tuesday.

The second is a bigger problem. TD10 is gone, perhaps the reason was the tropical wave that was following it always seemed to interrupt its development pulses. Well now that tropical wave has all the potential of the pattern to itself and the mid level spin is near 20.5 north and 70.0 west this afternoon. The most likely path of this is to near Nassau by Wednesday and just east of the central Florida coast by Thursday. Building pressures over the northeast and the atlantic mid and late week are a known precursor to tropical development and so this is liable to become better organized during the week. All interests on the southeast coast should pay close attention to this. Interestingly enough, a tropical wave near 60 west is moving quickly toward it and it will either feed in and help, or compete and limit as the week goes on. Should development take place, the system may turn west into Florida and to the Gulf on the weekend given the overall pattern.

The 3rd is a major wave that is near the Cape Verdes. This may the first of several that can develop and try to come across. It will be moving west the next few days.

For now though, the one that can cause forecasters the greatest wailing and gnashing of teeth is the second one. accuweather [list] [list]

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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Turks and Caicos [Re: Lou]
      #48502 - Sun Aug 21 2005 10:20 PM

Preliminary observation only.
I'm noticing continous convection, just North of Haiti. Centered near the 70.0 W longitude line. Also noted is what appears to be the beginnings of an outflow pattern in the NE thru S, semicircle of the area.
I would estimate the center of rotation near 21.0 N/ 70.0 W

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Re: Turks and Caicos [Re: danielw]
      #48503 - Sun Aug 21 2005 10:30 PM

what's going on labor day in the state of florida thats big!

Yep the "Hurricanes are in Tally"!!! Sounds like last year and except in miami!
take a look at GFS long range
just food for thought ***interesting the model getting the active!!!! First weekend in Sept. may repeat like last year.....

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Old Sailor
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Re: Turks and Caicos [Re: MikeG]
      #48504 - Sun Aug 21 2005 10:39 PM

And this morning GFS had it going to NC, To far out to know where it will go 14 to 15 days. out.


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Tropical Observations [Re: Old Sailor]
      #48505 - Sun Aug 21 2005 11:44 PM

I've just checked the most current observations in Mexico and the Turks and Caicos Islands.
Mexico-I'm seeing earlier reports of heavy rain and winds as high as 17 kts.
I noticed the Mid-Gulf buoy has had a wind shift. With wind gusts to 19kts.
Not necessarily conclusive at this time.
Belize-Report on of torrential rains there in the last 24 hours. Diane Campbell reporting 6 inches in the cistern, and an estimate of 10 inches!!!
The Turks and Caicos Islands are on the western side of the disturbed weather near 21 N/ 70 W. Nothing unusual noted there.
Dominican Republic had several stations reporting rain and thunderstorms earlier. Most of those stations have ceased operations for the night.
San Juan radar continues to 'paint' tropical showers and a few thunderstorms to the north of the island.

Edited by danielw (Sun Aug 21 2005 11:51 PM)

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LI Phil

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buckle up [Re: Old Sailor]
      #48506 - Sun Aug 21 2005 11:47 PM

hey all...been away too much, but the mid august lull has been most welcome...irene gave us a bit of a scare, but like a good little girl she did spin the fishes...

i'm certainly no met, but i do know climatology, and it sure looks like the basin is back from vacation so many have pointed out...nothing is imminent, but i'd bet by the end of this week, we'll have plenty on the platter...

lets hope they all spin the fishes, but CV season is now open for business and the long trackers are lined up both off the coast (of africa) and still over land...

here comes cane season 2005...part deux

buckle up

2005 Forecast: 14/7/4


"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"

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Re: Tropical Observations [Re: danielw]
      #48514 - Mon Aug 22 2005 12:06 AM


This site may help you in Carib if you don't have it all ready.

Got it bookmarked Dave, Thanks. I wish the map was smaller. Need a widescreen TV to view it!~danielw

Edited by danielw (Mon Aug 22 2005 12:14 AM)

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97L Reorganizing, headed more north [Re: HanKFranK]
      #48515 - Mon Aug 22 2005 12:15 AM

Still a very large tropical wave, 97L appears to have lost much of its deep convection today though it appears to be regaining a little at this hour. I have also noticed that it appears to be on a heading more northward --say wnw-nw...being it is not a closed, classified system, I am looking at the system as a whole instead of just the low moving just n of wnw and that is what i see. Models agree on a wnw-nw movement through the period so this makes sense. However, this is just the openner to what promises to be a very active Cape Verde season so watch it and be prepared US coast as its becoming crunch time!
Wave loop.........
Colorized wave sat loop

Edited by Jekyhe904 (Mon Aug 22 2005 12:17 AM)

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Re: Tropical Wave orientations/ interactions [Re: Clark]
      #48517 - Mon Aug 22 2005 12:27 AM

Clark, looking at the obs, the old TD 10 wave is oriented sw to ne. the one wave behind it (around 62.5 w) is oriented se to nw. Here's the question/ request for clarification. From what I understand, a wave oriented from sw to ne does not typically have the orientation to spin up into a surface low, however a wave oriented se to nw has a better chance of "rolling on itself and closing off a low. Is this correct? Part two, what happens when wave oriented like this collide, do they have a better chance to spin up, considering the conflicting orientations? I know this is a matter of physics, so I thought I'd ask you. It does look like that wave behind the old TD 10 wave is catching up. I was wondering if the conflict in orientation and wind dynamics would increase chances of development if they collide with each other.
Thanks for your answer!

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Re: Tropical Wave orientations/ interactions [Re: dem05]
      #48518 - Mon Aug 22 2005 12:49 AM

Well, I'm not certain on wave orientations towards development -- I'm not familiar with any research into it, if there has been any -- but I would think that the wave tilt has little to do with the potential for organization. Both waves are going to have similar wind fields, just with different orientations. Given that the prevailing winds are out of the east in the tropics and that the last part of a center to usually close off is the south side, I would think that the orientation of a wave isn't going to affect that much. However, if I had to make a call, I would think that the NW winds coming around the west side of a NW-SE oriented wave would probably lead to that orientation being slightly more favorable for quicker development. But, that's also an orientation you don't see that often, so how much credence you can put into that may be up for debate. Nevertheless, I believe there are more important factors, such as convective organization, mid-level banding & circulation features (thought to be important to the genesis process), and the amplitude of the wave, towards the genesis question.

As for the second part of the question, when two tropical waves collide going the same direction, it starts out as a constructive interference process on the west side of the easternmost wave and east side of the westernmost wave (in the N. Hemisphere) due to the counteracting wind fields. The waves could then merge and perhaps amplify at that point if enhanced convergence in the wind field is realized in the low-levels, but I don't think that the orientation of the wave plays a large role in this. Two waves of opposing tilts at the surface, NE-SW and NW-SE, are just going to have this same effect shifted in position or orientation; for between two troughs, as tropical waves are, you must have a corresponding ridge. Merger is possible, which can lead to enhanced potential for development, but there is a period of interaction first and I'm not sure that the orientation of a wave (or two waves) affects that to any large degree.

I will reiterate the caveat at the start of the post, though, and invite any of the other mets (calling HF, calling HF) to add their insight.
dude, i'm not a met. will be a climatologist at best... -HF

Edited by HanKFranK (Mon Aug 22 2005 10:02 AM)

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