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Archives 2000s >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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BORED!!!
Unregistered




Re: random morning *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* [Re: LoisCane]
      #48542 - Mon Aug 22 2005 11:32 AM

This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard

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NewWatcheratwork
Unregistered




Re: random morning [Re: BORED!!!]
      #48543 - Mon Aug 22 2005 11:38 AM

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...TROPICAL STORM
WARNING ISSUED FOR MEXICO... #11

Will be interesting to see if XTD10 does what some of the models are calling for,
if the NHC calls it TD10 again or TD12


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 828
Loc: Puerto Morelos,Mx
Re: random morning [Re: BORED!!!]
      #48544 - Mon Aug 22 2005 11:40 AM

This season has a very good chance of going into November,given the very warm water temps.It is only August 22nd,and now there are 3 systems to watch.But,don't you think it would be great if there were no more storms?But,THAT will never happen.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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SMOKE
Weather Watcher


Reged: Mon
Posts: 33
Loc: USA, Ga.
Re: random morning *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* [Re: BORED!!!]
      #48545 - Mon Aug 22 2005 11:42 AM

This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard

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native
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 148
Loc: SE Florida
Re: random morning [Re: NewWatcheratwork]
      #48547 - Mon Aug 22 2005 11:58 AM

Quote:

Will be interesting to see if XTD10 does what some of the models are calling for, if the NHC calls it TD10 again or TD12




Maybe TD10 part deux??? I hope it's called only a rainmaker and nothing more!

Clark - I feel for you. My cousin is a met. in WPB FL...says this year has been a real head scratcher. I don't hope for more storms but if there are, I hope for your sake (and all of ours) that they're more predictable.

Can someone post a link to 97L stats...can't find anywhere. Want to know rate of foward speed so as to know what longitude it'll be near in 36-48hrs.


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Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 318
Re: random morning [Re: SMOKE]
      #48548 - Mon Aug 22 2005 11:59 AM

NHC predicted the number of storms for the season but did not claim there would be the exact number they predicted. Also, the predictions were based on certain criteria and also a very active July. Just because August has not been as active as July doesn't mean September or October won't be. We won't know exactly what will happen until it happens. Humans can only predict and although technology has come a long way there is still a lot we don't know about the weather. Anyway, the hurricanes are interesting to follow each year simply because the formation of these storms is fascinating to watch. And whether there are Category 4 storms out there or tropical storms they are still storms. And I will tell you from having lived through Allison a tropical storm can wreak just as much havoc as a hurricane at times.

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Ron Basso
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 267
Loc: hernando beach, FL
Re: Trop Wave in SE Bahamas [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #48549 - Mon Aug 22 2005 11:59 AM

Looks like now the 06Z GFS has latched onto a closed low developing in the central Bahamas and drifting west to the gold coast, across S FL, and then further developing in the SE GOM. That makes it nearly unanimous among the global models (includes 00Z Euro) in developing a depression or TS and slowly drfting it west into the GOM. If you believe the GFS, it will take this low 72 hours to go from offshore Ft Laud to offshore Ft Meyers in the Thur-Sun time frame. Wow, looks like a major rain event if nothing else.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cg...;hour=Animation

--------------------
RJB


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Rabbit
Weather Master


Reged: Sat
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
Re: random morning [Re: BORED!!!]
      #48551 - Mon Aug 22 2005 12:02 PM

Quote:


What a BUST August has turned into, IMO there is NOWAY we will
reach the number of named storms that NHC or G.G. has claimed
there will be...This whole season has been nothing but hype. Really ticks me off.




first off, I dont think the people in Cancun, Pensacola, Cuba, or south of Brownsville will call it "nothing but hype"
second, EVERY YEAR we have a quiet period in August--in 1995 we had 19 storms; we had the seventh on August 10th and didnt have another for 11 days; in 1999 we had 12 storms, with the first on June 11 and the SECOND on August 19; 1984 we had 12 storms, with the first NOT EVEN FORMING until August 29!

Also, the peak is not until SEPTEMBER, and the last several years, the majority of activity has been AFTER AUGUST: 1998 we had 9 of the 14 after August, 1999 we had 7 of 12 after August, in 2000 we had 10 after August; 2001 we had 7 of AFTER SEPTEMBER, and if you remember last year we had 8 by now, with 7 more to follow after August. And last year had a long period of nothing mid-Oct to late Nov.

I am holding to my prediction of 16, and i think it is still very likely to reach 21 storms. If we have one more storm by 2pm tomorrow, we will be ahead of EVERY YEAR PRIOR!


now, as for the systems out there: TD11 will likely become a TS later tonight; XTD10/Trop Wave will not develop, upper winds are too strong; and 97L will probably not develop at all until the end of the week if ever--there is still too much dry air in the circulation, and the convection has weakened quite alot since yesterday.


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ralphfl
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 435
Re: random morning [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #48553 - Mon Aug 22 2005 12:23 PM

Yah it is hot but so far things are going good the new TD is really nothing so i don't even count it as its not going anywhere.

Lets hope this week is just what it has been for awhile now just talk.


------------------------------------------------------------------------------

America's team?
steriod Daemon and Schilling bought last years end of curse.


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
Not so random storms [Re: ralphfl]
      #48554 - Mon Aug 22 2005 12:29 PM

Well..that storm down near Mexico is going to hit land and will probably get a name. Beautiful to watch how it began spinning.

As for spinning.. hard to believe but off the N Coast of Haiti...something seems to be trying to spin.. or is twisting for sure... hard to believe but give it a look.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-vis-loop.html

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
Hey Ron [Re: Ron Basso]
      #48555 - Mon Aug 22 2005 12:32 PM

Ran your model loop here on lunch break.. a small storm if anything but plausible and could happen if the showers stay far south enough to not get caught up in that frontal boundary. Her weakness may save her..

Thanks for link.

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 388
Loc: Port Orange, FL
Re: Hey Ron [Re: LoisCane]
      #48556 - Mon Aug 22 2005 12:37 PM

Recon now scheduled for tomorrow for invest area near bahamas

--------------------
Pam in Volusia County

According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6


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MikeG
Unregistered




Re: Not so random storms [Re: LoisCane]
      #48557 - Mon Aug 22 2005 12:37 PM

I think the wave east of cuba may be forming a depression like structure (low level)..... hard to tell but i think there may something to watch for later today!


vis on wave


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J.C.
Unregistered




Re: Not so random storms [Re: MikeG]
      #48558 - Mon Aug 22 2005 12:50 PM

Asked question earlier with no response. Thoughs of you that see a center oc circulation can you give an approx. lat & long. because all I see is a mass of clouds in the form of an open wave with alot of NE shear around. Tell me if I'm right or wrong. J.C.

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emackl
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 205
Loc: Indianapolis
Re: Hey Ron [Re: NewWatcher]
      #48559 - Mon Aug 22 2005 12:52 PM

Why don't they put the storm floater 2 on the area in the Bahamas? Seems like if they are concerned enough to set up recon they would make it easier for us to see it...LOL!

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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
Re: Not so random storms [Re: LoisCane]
      #48560 - Mon Aug 22 2005 12:53 PM

>>XTD10/Trop Wave will not develop, upper winds are too strong;

You should always put a caveat when dealing with the tropics or else use proclimations with universal modifiers with caution (not, never, always, definitely, etc.). The Upper Low to the NW of the wave energy and leftover energy from TD 10 will continue to move west to wsw over time which is what I think the globals are waiting for to develop the surface energy. If it does cut WSW or even SW, then the pattern reversal will, by nature, mean that upper level high pressure will replace the upper level low pressure that was formerly in that general area.

Bottom line, no way would I say "WILL DEVELOP" because upper level winds will be light in the next couple of days. I'm only going to say watch and see.

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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MikeG
Unregistered




Re: Not so random storms [Re: J.C.]
      #48561 - Mon Aug 22 2005 12:53 PM

maybe 73w 22n? ish
i think it's becoming more than a wave now....
there is shear on northern side....but it might be to its favor.
South Florida is in for some RAIN next week...............


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MissBecky
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 112
Loc: Ft. Myers, FL
Re: Trop Wave in SE Bahamas [Re: Ron Basso]
      #48562 - Mon Aug 22 2005 01:00 PM

Quote:

If you believe the GFS, it will take this low 72 hours to go from offshore Ft Laud to offshore Ft Meyers in the Thur-Sun time frame. Wow, looks like a major rain event if nothing else.






We could certainly use the rain here on the west coast. It's been a *very* hot and dry August. I've been watching the model runs on this one, and I do think the CMC is too bullish on development once the wave hits the GOM. However, as more and more models begin to show the same thing, it's becoming harder to ignore them. Here's hoping nothing major comes of the wave, but I will say the rain and cooler temperatures will certainly be welcome.


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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 388
Loc: Port Orange, FL
Re: Trop Wave in SE Bahamas [Re: MissBecky]
      #48563 - Mon Aug 22 2005 01:12 PM

No such thing as cooling down in FL this time of year, lol. I wish there was.
Rain we can do with. We had so much in July over here in Daytona we almost
drowned and in August just about nothing.
Anyway I am not liking the model concensus concerning XTD10.
CMC GFS and NOGAPS all show this evolving and moving right over FL
The FSU shows it off the SE coast near GA
UKM shows it in the middle of the gulf. With them all agreeing on SOMETHING
and FL being close, definately bears watching

--------------------
Pam in Volusia County

According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
other off the wall stuff [Re: MissBecky]
      #48564 - Mon Aug 22 2005 01:12 PM

take a look off NE coast. in the warm sector east of the advancing front, that old frontal low that was off hatteras the other day has acquired a convective core. it's being baroclinically forced and will leave support SSTs within hours (currently near 39/62).. if it was a few hundred miles to the south it would probably be a short lived fish spinner. maybe it's evolution is indicative of the pattern we're entering.
noticed the low level flow with the wave entering the caribbean is backing as well... just scattered convection, though, so don't think a low pressure will form.
some years the fourth week of august just goes nuts...
HF 1712z22august


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