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Archives 2000s >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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Ron Basso
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 267
Loc: hernando beach, FL
Re: Trop Wave in SE Bahamas [Re: NewWatcher]
      #48565 - Mon Aug 22 2005 01:27 PM

Quote:

No such thing as cooling down in FL this time of year, lol. I wish there was.
Rain we can do with. We had so much in July over here in Daytona we almost
drowned and in August just about nothing.
Anyway I am not liking the model concensus concerning XTD10.
CMC GFS and NOGAPS all show this evolving and moving right over FL
The FSU shows it off the SE coast near GA
UKM shows it in the middle of the gulf. With them all agreeing on SOMETHING
and FL being close, definately bears watching




Pam, on board with u with the consensus of models forming a closed circulation. I think the big story with this feature may be its very slow movement. None of the models are really deepening the low except for the CMC. My geuss, & only one, is that we'll get a tropical depression or weak trop storm forming before it moves across the peninsula to the GOM. That being said, some of our highest rainfall amounts are associated with weak systems so this could potentially be a 5-10 incher if it really moves at a crawl as the models show. I did see the latest VIS SAT - looks to be a broad rotation now in the SE Bahamas.

--------------------
RJB


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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 388
Loc: Port Orange, FL
Re: Trop Wave in SE Bahamas [Re: Ron Basso]
      #48566 - Mon Aug 22 2005 01:33 PM

From the NWS in Miami

ADVANCING TROPICAL WAVE PROMISES A MUCH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER REGIME OVER SOUTH FLORIDA LATER THIS WEEK. 06Z GFS SHOWS CONTINUED VERY SLOW MOVEMENT WHICH COULD MEAN VERY HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THIS WEEK.
OF COURSE...IT WILL BE CLOSELY WATCHED FOR ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT
AS WELL.
BY LATE IN THE WEEK THE HIGH BEHIND THIS FRONTAL TROUGH SHOULD HELP REBUILD AN ATLANTIC SURFACE RIDGE BACK TOWARD THE PENINSULA.
SO TROPICAL WAVE IMPACT MAINLY TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY WEAK SURFACE
PATTERN AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE WITH AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

Also this from the NHC

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/danger_atl_latestBW.gif


--------------------
Pam in Volusia County

According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6


Edited by NewWatcher (Mon Aug 22 2005 01:46 PM)


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Rabbit
Weather Master


Reged: Sat
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
Re: Trop Wave in SE Bahamas [Re: Ron Basso]
      #48567 - Mon Aug 22 2005 01:36 PM

i just saw the vis zoom on the bahamas wave
interesting to see how Hispaniola is influencing the wind pattern--north of the island, there is a definate closed, if broad, rotation, at least in mid levels, but south of the island, the winds are all straight out of the east

i think this has a shot at development before the end of the week


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Bloodstar
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 458
Loc: Georgia Tech
Re: Trop Wave in SE Bahamas [Re: Rabbit]
      #48568 - Mon Aug 22 2005 02:52 PM

Of course, I'm good at seeing phantoms, but it looks close to closing off a SFC low around 21N 72W or so, it's still disorganized but looking at the msfc visible loop in the area, you can see a sw to NE turning to N then Turning to NW then W... windflow at the surface I don't think there's a south wind on the west side of the wave. but it's starting to look a little more viable....

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurr.html

-Mark

--------------------
M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020!

TD/TS/H/M
29/28/12/05
18/17/7/04


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
Re: Trop Wave in SE Bahamas [Re: Rabbit]
      #48569 - Mon Aug 22 2005 02:55 PM

i think it will be reclassified (as TD 10 or maybe they'll just call it 12) tomorrow. it's slowly , slowly spinning up... looks to be focusing near the convective burst that has been going off all morning around great inagua (the slightly larger island in the SE bahamas). there's a shortwave ridge moving in from the east which should start to ventilate the area tomorrow.. today it's in a weak sheared environment thanks to that small upper low sliding by to the north. if this thing develops.. and it looks to be.. it's a big ticket item. most of the globals have it crossing southern florida into the gulf late in the week.
td 11 may or may not get bumped up to jose. the deep layer flow caught it as it developed and it's moving faster than the globals were showing (they tend to hang things up in the rim of the BOC anyway). should move onshore tonight, not tomorrow night, like the official says. recon will probably find winds near t.s. force. NHC likes to play these conservative. they probably won't upgrade it unless it makes a convincing case.
97L looks about like it has for the last 36 hrs or so. the center is near 16/33 and moving over marginal SSTs/though a marginal environment; some of the dynamic guidance has it making a pretty dramatic recurvature near 50w at the end of the week. i'm not sold on that evolution quite yet.. with nao positive there should be a tendency for stair-stepping storms that feel troughs and miss them.. unless they're fairly strong.
that model-seen coastal low that peels out from the carolina coast as the current shortwave over tennessee moves off.. i'm more convinced it will exist than some of the other hybrid storms models have been waffling over so far this season. i do think it will be hybrid, though.. e.g. not a classified tropical system. globals were earlier trying to deepen it and recurve the old TD 10 energy with it.. with the nao state it will probably just deepen and go.. and let the ridge push back in behind it a little.
HF 1855z22august


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native
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 148
Loc: SE Florida
Re: Trop Wave in SE Bahamas [Re: Bloodstar]
      #48570 - Mon Aug 22 2005 03:00 PM

Am I blind? How come I just do not see the closed circulation...anywhere? Don't get me wrong, I can see that it's obviously trying to get it's act together...but I just do not see the CCOC.

Quote:

I think the big story with this feature may be its very slow movement...That being said, some of our highest rainfall amounts are associated with weak systems so this could potentially be a 5-10 incher if it really moves at a crawl as the models show.




UGH! Anyone here remember Irene (Oct.99) ? SE FL..we got hammered with the rain (and that moved much quicker than the anticipated system.) My street was blocked off by cops for an entire week until the water receed to a safe level.

What's the timeline for potential arrival on this thing? I gotta be in Orlando from tomorrow until Fri. for a convention.

I know end of week. Are we talking Thurs/Fri or Sat/Sun??

Edited by native (Mon Aug 22 2005 03:05 PM)


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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master


Reged: Tue
Posts: 426
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
Re: Trop Wave in SE Bahamas [Re: HanKFranK]
      #48571 - Mon Aug 22 2005 03:07 PM

Thank you, Hank Frank.

But I am interested in knowing if XTD10 will be renamed TD10 or would it more likely be given a new ID as TD12 as a 'home grown' system.?

Which way would the NHC lean towards?

--------------------
________2017 Forecast: 12/6/3________

There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
complaints? [Re: native]
      #48572 - Mon Aug 22 2005 03:13 PM

i went and read the graveyarded stuff this morning. i'm not sure it should have been deleted... because even though i'd call the comments misguided they didn't really break any rules. gotta wonder why someone thinks tropical systems don't count because they're weak and hit mexico, though. we get a couple weeks off the insane pace we had in july and a bunch of people start shrieking about the active season being a bust. mind we've had that every year i've been here in some fashion or another (was really funny hearing people talking about a slow 2004 in late july.. august shut them up real quick). last november when i put my season #s at 17/11/5 i was thinking i'd probably miss high... glad i didn't give in to the consensus and go lower when the adjustments were made in may (EVERYONE was below me).. just kept 'em there. i dunno.. maybe i've always thought that forecasting wasn't about vacillating with the crowd, or trend of the week; if you're right, you're right.. if you're wrong you're wrong. it's looked like i'll miss low ever since mid july. name me a year in the last ten where we've had fewer than eight named storms after august 21. just 1997. i don't see that el nino, hombres.
HF 19132z22august


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native
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 148
Loc: SE Florida
Re: Trop Wave in SE Bahamas [Re: native]
      #48573 - Mon Aug 22 2005 03:13 PM

New Graphics are up....interesting turn of events (as always with this one)

sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_10.gif


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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master


Reged: Tue
Posts: 426
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
Re: Trop Wave in SE Bahamas [Re: native]
      #48574 - Mon Aug 22 2005 03:18 PM

Those graphics are beginning to remind me of Irene (1999).
I think that the models are having difficulty in defining the strength and direction of the remanants of TD10-let alone if it will be renamed TD10 or given the latest number on the docket.

--------------------
________2017 Forecast: 12/6/3________

There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard


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naples
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 10
Loc: Naples, FL
Re: Trop Wave in SE Bahamas [Re: native]
      #48575 - Mon Aug 22 2005 03:18 PM

Wow, if the LBAR is correct, I'd better get prepared. lol.

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Ron Basso
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 267
Loc: hernando beach, FL
Re: Trop Wave in SE Bahamas [Re: Bloodstar]
      #48576 - Mon Aug 22 2005 03:18 PM

From the NHC 2:05

SURFACE TROUGH N OF HISPANIOLA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS.
VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOW SOME SIGNS OF A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
MAY BE DEVELOPING ALONG THE TROUGH. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED FROM 20N TO 23N BETWEEN 70W AND 74W
WITH WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ELSEWHERE FROM 20N TO
25N BETWEEN 65W AND 76W.

--------------------
RJB


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MapMaster
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 138
Re: Trop Wave in SE Bahamas [Re: native]
      #48577 - Mon Aug 22 2005 03:21 PM

Looks like model hash to me....wait until they have LLCC to initialize on....

Agree with you 100% HF on all aspects of your last post (about previous seasons and sticking to your guns).

Train is leaving the station, it's about to get REAL interesting....lot of rain for S Fl, at the least, it seems.

PS--1935 CAT V was a tropical storm in the Bahamas 24 hours before landfall. I am NOT saying that will happen this time...just that 'anything' is possible.

MM

Edited by MapMaster (Mon Aug 22 2005 03:21 PM)


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emackl
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 205
Loc: Indianapolis
Re: Trop Wave in SE Bahamas [Re: native]
      #48578 - Mon Aug 22 2005 03:22 PM

Quote:

]I know end of week. Are we talking Thurs/Fri or Sat/Sun??




Maybe Thurs/Fri/Sat/and Sun.....ROFL! J/K

I'm curious why I keep hearing that it may cross Florida. I think JB said this a.m. it may be off the coast of the Cape later in the week. All the models have it going under Florida. Are the models not accurate at this stage of the development??


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Steve hirschb.
Unregistered




Re: Trop Wave in SE Bahamas [Re: native]
      #48579 - Mon Aug 22 2005 03:22 PM

There's just too much shear over the Bahamas/Hispaniola right now to get anything going. The circulation that is observed by some is not at the surface, since you can see the surface flow of the wave moving by. It's trying to get it's act together though, but the shear still remains brutal. Maybe conditions will improve tomorrow, but the NHC was playing that tune last week and the hostile conditions continued. Things in the tropics should begin to blossom soon though...its the time of year when you can wake up one morning and BOOM...just like someone turned on a lightswitch. It happened in the BOC today; perhaps the Caribbean tomorrow. Cheers!!

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Ron Basso
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 267
Loc: hernando beach, FL
Re: Trop Wave in SE Bahamas [Re: native]
      #48580 - Mon Aug 22 2005 03:23 PM

Quote:

New Graphics are up....interesting turn of events (as always with this one)

sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_10.gif




Need to be a little cautious with these models - a whole another suite of global models (i.e. GFS, NOGAPS, ECMWF,CMC) take the system further north and across the south half of the peninsula.

--------------------
RJB


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
dynamic models [Re: rmbjoe1954]
      #48581 - Mon Aug 22 2005 03:24 PM

that's the first time i've seen the dynamic models.. they're a bit further south than i'd guessed, but not much. has me leaning more on the system migrating across the southern end of the state or the keys around fri/sat. probably not very intense. early next week that thing could be a very serious issue in the gulf, though.. if this stuff verifies.
joe i wouldn't relate this thing to irene (other than the slow movement concept). jerry of 1995 is probably more apt. irene was quick mid-october storm that came up out of the western caribbean.. totally different synoptic pattern. its rain shield was elongated along its track, thus all the rain/flooding in se florida.
HF 1924z22august


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Ron Basso
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 267
Loc: hernando beach, FL
Re: dynamic models [Re: HanKFranK]
      #48582 - Mon Aug 22 2005 03:31 PM

From NWS Melbourne PM Disc:

TUE-WED...OPERATIONAL MODELS CONTINUE GOOD CONSENSUS WRT DEVELOPMENT
AND MOVEMENT OF WAVE OVER THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS. LATEST RUN OF GFS
INDICATES SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF SFC CIRCULATION OVER THE SE BAHAMAS
WITH SLOW MOVEMENT TOWARD THE FL STRAITS BY LATE WED. RECON AIRCRAFT
SET TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM TUE AFTERNOON IF NECESSARY. THE LOW
CENTER IS INITIALLY DRAWN NORTHWARD BY WEAKNESS IN RIDGE ASCD WITH
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ALONG THE SE COAST. WITH THIS SCENARIO EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN ELY FLOW BY WED. DO NOT ANTICIPATE SIGNIFICANT INCREASE
IN RAIN CHANCES TUE AS REMNANT OF UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE
PENINSULA BUT SHOULD SEE MORE COASTAL SHOWERS BY TUE NIGHT AND WED
AS MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF SYS.

THU-SUN...GLOBAL SUITE POINTS TOWARD SLOW WWD MOVEMENT OF SYS OVER S
FL TO THE KEYS/FL BAY AREA FRI THEN OVER THE SE GULF THIS WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. LOCAL WILD
CARD WILL BE LIKELIHOOD OF A DEEPENING SYSTEM SOUTH OF AREA WHICH
WOULD SIGNIFICANTLY ENHANCE ONSHORE FLOW WHEN COMBINED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE N. RAIN CHANCES MAY BE
BOOSTED BY LATER FORECASTS AND HAVE OPTED NOT TO FOCUS TOO MUCH ON
DETERIORATING ELEMENTS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE AS FORECAST REMAINS
UNCERTAIN ATTM. BEST BET WILL BE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES FROM MIDWEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND DUE TO INCREASED MOISTURE AND PROXIMITY OF
SYSTEM SOUTH OF AREA

--------------------
RJB


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Rabbit
Weather Master


Reged: Sat
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
Re: Trop Wave in SE Bahamas [Re: rmbjoe1954]
      #48583 - Mon Aug 22 2005 03:37 PM

what is "xtrap" (black line, i assume it means extrapolation)
what is the track though? its always a straight line, i am wondering if that is simply showing the current direction of movement?

that's it. extrapolated track off the present movement vector. it will almost always be outperformed by the models (sad when it isn't). -HF

Edited by HanKFranK (Mon Aug 22 2005 03:40 PM)


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Keith234
Storm Chaser


Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
Re: Trop Wave in SE Bahamas [Re: Rabbit]
      #48584 - Mon Aug 22 2005 03:40 PM

I would assume to use as the "control", so you can clearly see what the current track is and how it will be changed.

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


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