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Archives 2000s >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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Lysis
User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 451
Loc: Hong Kong
Re: IRONIC or what... [Re: Big Kahuna]
      #48607 - Mon Aug 22 2005 06:51 PM

No dude, that is an Infrared loop. No eye... quite the contrary infact. The reds and darker colors signify intense convection, and perhaps, as Rich B said, the cyclone is attempting to form a CDO.

Look at the overshooting cloud top in the visible loop. That is what you are seeing:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/GOES/FLT/T1/RGB_loop.html


EDIT: Uh, yeah... that is why they have names that span over multiple demographics. The US isn't the only place hit by hurricanes, you know.


EDIT II: ah... sorry daniel. Perhaps I used the wrong terminology. Not as in a severe thunderstorm. You are right.



--------------------
cheers

Edited by Lysis (Mon Aug 22 2005 08:00 PM)


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3522
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: IRONIC or what... [Re: Lysis]
      #48608 - Mon Aug 22 2005 07:28 PM

Quote:

Look at the overshooting cloud top in the visible loop. That is what you are seeing:




I'm not seeing any overshooting cloud tops. You may be seeing a shadow of a higher cloud that is moving with the Sun at a low angle. It looks clear and smooth over Jose'.
That's an RGB Loop. Not a true visible light spectrum. (man made)


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Jekyhe904
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 22
Loc: Jacksonville, Florida
18z GFS loop of x10 in the gulf is 'comical' [Re: MikeC]
      #48609 - Mon Aug 22 2005 07:32 PM

If the 18Z GFS is correct, I found 4 landfall points for xtd10. cuba, Keywest, Pensacola, and New orleans as it makes the final landfall in about 336 hours. Would love to see a model track of this loop
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/

Edited by danielw (Mon Aug 22 2005 11:26 PM)


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NONAME
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 136
Re: 10 [Re: Jekyhe904]
      #48610 - Mon Aug 22 2005 07:44 PM

What is happen with R10 and when is recon going to be in Jose again before landfall

--------------------
I am a young Weather enthusiast and really want to get to college in a couple of years for meteorology.


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3522
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
The 8 PM EDT Wrap [Re: NONAME]
      #48613 - Mon Aug 22 2005 08:03 PM

Jose', should be making landfall in the next 6 hours or so...being he's only about 40 miles from the beach as it is.

The link above, referring to XTD 10 is a Surface based, precip loop and Does Not imply anything other than rain, thunderstorms, and a surface pressure of around 1008mb.
The vorticity structure of XTD 10 remains aloft, to some degree. As evidenced in the 850 and 500mb level plots.

**I will go along with you on the connection between the Turks/ Caicos vortice and the GOM vortice. I'll have to look at the run to run continuity. Although there is a break in the signature...it remains in the general vicinity.


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MikeG
Unregistered




Re: The 8 PM EDT Wrap [Re: danielw]
      #48614 - Mon Aug 22 2005 08:24 PM

ahhhh......another pretty picture of a tropical system this yeah

JOSE i can see ya
before sun goes down!


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MikeG
Unregistered




Re: The 8 PM EDT Wrap [Re: MikeG]
      #48617 - Mon Aug 22 2005 08:27 PM

so what does everybody think about the feature around 70w 25n will do to wave to it's south....
is it that a mid to upper level low moving nw to west?


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Keith234
Storm Chaser


Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
Re: IRONIC or what... [Re: danielw]
      #48620 - Mon Aug 22 2005 09:09 PM

Quote:

Quote:

Look at the overshooting cloud top in the visible loop. That is what you are seeing:




I'm not seeing any overshooting cloud tops. You may be seeing a shadow of a higher cloud that is moving with the Sun at a low angle. It looks clear and smooth over Jose'.
That's an RGB Loop. Not a true visible light spectrum. (man made)




I believe this is what Lysis was referring to.

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/trop_ge_storm_relative_0.html

if you look dead in the center you can see that there is an overshooting cloud top. Makes it look very symmetric.

Edited by danielw (Mon Aug 22 2005 09:18 PM)


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3522
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Keeps Going and Going [Re: Keith234]
      #48621 - Mon Aug 22 2005 09:50 PM

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
122 PM EDT MON AUG 22 2005 ([]edited~danielw)

VALID AUG 22/1200 UTC THRU AUG 26/0000 UTC

......FEATURE IN VICINITY OF THE BAHAMAS...

THE 12Z NAM HAS CONTINUED THE IDEA OF DEVELOPING THE AREA OF
DISTURBED WX INVOF THE SERN BAHAMAS. THE INITIAL DEVELOPMENT IS
SUGGESTED BEFORE THE END OF DAY 1...BUT MORE SIGNIFICANT DEEPENING
IS SUGGESTED ESP AFTER 48 HRS. THE NAM TAKES A SFC LOW TRACK NWWD
THRU THE CTRL BAHAMAS AND INTO THE NWRN BAHAMAS. THIS TRACK IS
JUST TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS PERHAPS JUST A
LITTLE SLOWER.

THE 12Z GFS ALSO CONTINUES TO SHOW DEVELOPMENT...BUT HAS TRENDED
WEAKER WITH IT FOR THE FIRST 36 HRS. THEREAFTER...THE 12Z RUN IS
BASICALLY IN LINE WITH THE 00Z RUN REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT. ITS
TRACK HAS ALSO SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT ALL THE WAY THRU 84
HRS.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdhmd.html


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Ron Basso
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 267
Loc: hernando beach, FL
Re: The 8 PM EDT Wrap [Re: MikeG]
      #48622 - Mon Aug 22 2005 09:52 PM

Interesting twist to the 18Z GFS and 12Z ECMWF models in that both now take a developing low pressure across S FL into the SE GOM and then slowly move the system north along the west coast of FL. Yikes!

http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-...;hour=Animation

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/...s!2005082212!!/

--------------------
RJB


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Big Red Machine
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 223
Loc: Polk City, FL
Re: The 8 PM EDT Wrap [Re: Ron Basso]
      #48623 - Mon Aug 22 2005 10:02 PM

Very interesting runs there Ron. Also important I think is the fact the GFS kind of stalls it out along the west coast, as from 96-144 hrs, movement is very slow.

Accoding to Accuweather tonight, the weaker the high, the worse it is for Florida. Despite the need for rain in some areas of the state, a slow crisscrosser regardless of intensity (TD/TS/H) would not be a good thing. The latest model runs (BAMMs, LBAR, etc) did shift a little more north than they had been previously. Obviously we need a true LLC before the models can spit out truly accurate info, but those runs were eye catching.

Edited to add another model showing the "end around" of Florida: Model

Edited again so that it does not screw up the page. sorry about that.

Edited by Big Red Machine (Mon Aug 22 2005 11:24 PM)


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La Nimo
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sun
Posts: 42
Loc: st. pete beach
Re: The 8 PM EDT Wrap [Re: Ron Basso]
      #48624 - Mon Aug 22 2005 10:02 PM

Be carefully for what you wish for,you been wishing for it all week, well you may get it in your backyard.
someone was wishing for something? who was that, may i ask?

Edited by HanKFranK (Mon Aug 22 2005 10:18 PM)


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SkeetoBiteAdministrator
Master of Maps


Reged: Sun
Posts: 298
Loc: Lakeland, FL
Re: The 8 PM EDT Wrap [Re: La Nimo]
      #48625 - Mon Aug 22 2005 10:07 PM

This map includes the last NHC Discussion track data and position FROM 8/14/2005.


000

WHXX01 KWBC 230116

CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

National Hurricane Center NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN (AL102005) ON 20050823 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...

050823 0000 050823 1200 050824 0000 050824 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMD 21.3N 73.5W 21.8N 75.1W 22.4N 76.8W 23.0N 78.7W

BAMM 21.3N 73.5W 21.9N 75.2W 22.6N 76.9W 23.2N 78.6W

A98E 21.3N 73.5W 21.7N 74.7W 22.3N 76.1W 23.3N 77.9W

LBAR 21.3N 73.5W 21.9N 75.1W 23.1N 76.8W 24.5N 78.6W

SHIP 20KTS 24KTS 31KTS 39KTS

DSHP 20KTS 24KTS 31KTS 39KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...

050825 0000 050826 0000 050827 0000 050828 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMD 23.6N 80.7W 24.3N 84.1W 24.1N 87.2W 23.7N 89.9W

BAMM 23.9N 80.3W 24.5N 83.1W 24.2N 85.5W 23.8N 87.6W

A98E 24.5N 80.2W 25.3N 85.8W 25.4N 90.0W 23.6N 91.5W

LBAR 25.9N 80.0W 27.5N 80.8W 28.8N 79.6W 30.7N 79.6W

SHIP 49KTS 63KTS 73KTS 78KTS

DSHP 49KTS 63KTS 73KTS 78KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 21.3N LONCUR = 73.5W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 6KT

LATM12 = 20.9N LONM12 = 72.3W DIRM12 = 283DEG SPDM12 = 7KT

LATM24 = 20.7N LONM24 = 70.8W

WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 20KT

CENPRS = 1012MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 125NM SDEPTH = M

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


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Old Sailor
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 293
Loc: Florida
Re: The 8 PM EDT Wrap [Re: SkeetoBite]
      #48626 - Mon Aug 22 2005 10:11 PM

Your plots looks up to date but the NHC run model calc. is 6 hours old am I wrong here?

Dave


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3522
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: The 8 PM EDT Wrap [Re: SkeetoBite]
      #48627 - Mon Aug 22 2005 10:14 PM

Once again, Skeet comes through!

I've noticed that most of the model animations that are being posted use the surface level pressures.
While these are fine in determining surface pressure and precipitation.
The Upper Air level animations should give a better idea of the vorticity, or spin, of the systems.
Try looking at the 850mb and 500mb level animations.
A tropical wave or depression would be visible in the 850mb levels.
Whereas a Cat 1 hurricane should extend into the 500mb levels and possibly into the 250mb level.
It will give you a better idea of the depth of the storm. 3-D if you will.


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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
Local Update [Re: Big Red Machine]
      #48628 - Mon Aug 22 2005 10:15 PM

Here is tonight's take on the situation from a local WPB meteorologist who has been advertising for days a possible flooding situation approaching Florida at a snails pace:

Rich, that is a very good analogy of Jerry.....Although the upper atmospheric conditions are not what I call the best for this situation..The one thing I looked at is the steering winds up to mid levels which reveal to me that this system will be slow to move and given the fact that with the sun's unusually high solar radiation and little in the way of rain the water temps jumped up quite a bit. This may have been the contributing factors for Jerry in 1995 but in this case though this tropical wave heading our way is actually going to move just south and we are in the wettest part of it..a 1008 mb tropical low by late friday night on the GFS is no joke to me..in fact a slow movement in the area of our adjacent atlantic and more specifcally the keys and the gulf is really a concern ...a 1008mb low to me already means a tropical depression...even if it moves slowly westward across the keys Friday and slowly turns northwest actually going around the entire offshore peninsula from the southeast coast to the west coast of florida...into the weekend...this is really a system to watch out for a deluge of a rainmaker!

--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.

Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4


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MikeG
Unregistered




Re: The 8 PM EDT Wrap [Re: danielw]
      #48629 - Mon Aug 22 2005 10:16 PM

TAFB outlook

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/danger_atl_latestBW.gif

YEP.....August could go out with a bang!


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SkeetoBiteAdministrator
Master of Maps


Reged: Sun
Posts: 298
Loc: Lakeland, FL
Re: The 8 PM EDT Wrap [Re: Old Sailor]
      #48630 - Mon Aug 22 2005 10:18 PM

Quote:

Your plots looks up to date but the NHC run model calc. is 6 hours old am I wrong here?

Dave




The NHC data is the old data from 8/14 - the last discussion they released on this storm. We are working on an issue with the UKMET models, which do not show up in our system if the UK Mets don't include the NHC identifier in their data, in this case, AL102005.

edited to add...
The UKMET models should magically appear in the right location once this issue is resolved. The thumbnail above and the iimage it links to updatd automatically as model data is added to our system.


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Old Sailor
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 293
Loc: Florida
Re: The 8 PM EDT Wrap [Re: SkeetoBite]
      #48631 - Mon Aug 22 2005 10:22 PM

What I was saying the run from today but for 20050822 1800 UTC not 20050823 0000 UTC which is what your plot shows, no big deal .
Dave


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SkeetoBiteAdministrator
Master of Maps


Reged: Sun
Posts: 298
Loc: Lakeland, FL
Re: The 8 PM EDT Wrap [Re: Old Sailor]
      #48632 - Mon Aug 22 2005 10:27 PM

Quote:

What I was saying the run from today but for 20050822 1800 UTC not 20050823 0000 UTC which is what your plot shows, no big deal .
Dave




OH!!! LOL! The thumbnail updated with the latest data before I posted. I went back and grabbed the updated text.

Good catch, thanks.


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