danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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URNT14 KNHC 240628
SUPPLEMENTARY VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
(edited~danielw)
MF228 M0752 MF034
OBS 01 AT 05:53:40Z
OBS 06 AT 06:18:20Z
OBS 06 SFC WND /////
AF307 0212A CYCLONE OB 12
That "MF034" is 34kts at 22.8N/ 75.2W. That might upgrade to ?
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Clark
Meteorologist
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Loc:
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My guess is probably not off of that one...34kt at a flight level of 925mb likely isn't going to translate down to the surface. Also, from research done into wind profiles since the new dropwindsondes came into play about 5-10 years ago, 925mb is around the peak winds found (on average) with tropical cyclones. Better bet is that the surface winds are around 30kt -- or still a 35mph depression -- at this time, though they may find higher winds elsewhere.
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Storm Hunter
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Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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i don't think much will happen in short term until the ULL to the nw that is moving sw gets away from the TD... there is dry air on the west side that kind wraped in the system a little and might hold it done for a little bit....but by this afternoon that should be gone and we should have a TS atleast....by 5pm tonight....if not by 11am
great outflow on east side...but the west side of center needs help...
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Wed Aug 24 2005 07:32 AM)
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Storm Hunter
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Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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sats are back and TD 12 looking much better....recon just was in the ne quad...should be near center again, heading sw and i think we may have soon.....structure is looking real good....would say center might be near 24n 76w or so......under and in the center of convection
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Wed Aug 24 2005 07:44 AM)
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Storm Hunter
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URNT12 KNHC 240756
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 24/07:39:30Z
B. 23 deg 55 min N
076 deg 18 min W
C. 925 mb 745 m
D. NA kt
E. deg nm
F. 128 deg 036 kt
G. 044 deg 097 nm
H. EXTRAP 1007 mb
I. 20 C/ 769 m
J. 21 C/ 768 m
K. 20 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/ 9
O. 0.02 / 6 nm
P. AF307 0212A CYCLONE OB 14
MAX FL WIND 45 KT E QUAD 06:40:00 Z
MAX FL TEMP 22 C, 40 / 31NM
SLP EXTRAP FROM 925 MB
think we may have soon!
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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still a TD
AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 24.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.4 WEST
looks like center is about to be exposed on west side of convection
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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Steve H1
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Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
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Looks like TD 12 is getting better organized as it moves to the NW. I'm watching the SW edge of the Bermuda high that is currently to the NE of the TD. It is currently moving the system to the NW. The big question is; when and if the ridge fills in to the north and turns the storm on a more westward path. This is crucial both for who on the east coast of Florida gets impacted, and how long it stays over water before making landfall, which will affect its intensity. No call on this yet, but it could get as far north as Vero. Gonna check the 6z to see if the is still to the right of the guidance. Saw the , and don't like that solution as it rapidly intensifies the system, brings it into Florida, gets almost to TAmpa, then heads it NE! Is this showing a weaker ridge?? More to come.....back to work. Cheesr!!
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Big Red Machine
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I too saw (and did not like) the , Steve. For what it's worth the also showed a similar path. Regardless of path, pretty much all of the models (with the exception of the ) now show it rapidly intensifying... some do it before S. FL, some in the Gulf, but nearly all do it at some point now.
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Southern4sure
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Loc: Land O Lakes, FL
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When you say rapidly intensifying, like how?
I remember TS Danny a few yrs back that sat in Mobile Bay for days. The amount of rain was unbelievable...48 inches.
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Big Red Machine
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Loc: Polk City, FL
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The different models show it to varying extents, so I was using the phrase to mean into a hurricane of some sort (a little loose with the word choice I guess). How intense just depends on the model.
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NONAME
Weather Guru
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This morning woke up and look at the satilite of TD12 i thought is would be a tropical storm but I guess I was wrong look destinind for flordia.
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I am a young Weather enthusiast and really want to get to college in a couple of years for meteorology.
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emackl
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Indianapolis
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How easy is it for this storm to make such a sharp westerly turn? What worries me is if it waits even a little it puts it much closer to us. No one that I've talked to is paying any attention to this storm. They say it's going in south as a minor TS. This is the type of storm that could bite you in the butt if you turn your back on it.
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Beach
Weather Guru
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Loc: Cocoa Beach/Banana River
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8am #'s have the TD @ 24.4N 76.6W
It's still moving in a NW direction, I would think that
a more W direction would have to start to take place.
An Orlando station Met. just told us that Central FL has nothing to worry about.
This will be a South Fl. event.
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MikeC
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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Quote:
8am #'s have the TD @ 24.4N 76.6W
It's still moving in a NW direction, I would think that
a more W direction would have to start to take place.
An Orlando station Met. just told us that Central FL has nothing to worry about.
This will be a South Fl. event.
I tend to agree, but I'm not willing to go that far right now, especially with the margin of error being what is is.
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Miami Beach, FLA USA
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Loc: Miami Beach, FLA
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looks like bad news for us here....anyone have any thoughts on the system getting to hurricane strength once if crosses the gulf stream? The water temps are so high, it seems almost impossible that the bottom won't fall out once hits the open waters between us and the Bahamas
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Beach
Weather Guru
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Loc: Cocoa Beach/Banana River
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805 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2005
...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATES THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TWELVE HAS STRENGTHENED INTO TROPICAL STORM ...
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Ron Basso
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Loc: hernando beach, FL
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TD12 is looking better and better overnight and thru this morning. A has developed and is getting rather circular. The center appears to be on the west side of the deep convection but its completely over the center now. The ULL to the NW appears to be moving off and filling in. Looks like the stage is set for some strengthening today - how rapid is the question?
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RJB
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Jamiewx
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Orlando, Florida
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Another attachment of the Bahamas Radar out of Nassau, TS showing up on it better now.
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"Climate is what you expect, weather is what you get"
- Robert A. Heinlein
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Myles
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Loc: SW FL
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It might be my might satalite reading, or lack there of, but it appears to me that the ULL that was giving TD12 trouble has dissappaited or is really weak now. The only thing I can see that even resembles the ULL is a small swirle in the coulds NNW of the blob of convection. Is that whats left of the ULL? Or is maybe gone completely?
If the latter, I think the storm has potential to really blow up if it gets it act together and doesn't move too fast. Those waters are too warm for only a TS or minor hurricane to develope if there is no shear, it will probably get stronger then that, if theres enough time.
Edited by Myles (Wed Aug 24 2005 12:40 PM)
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HanKFranK
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Loc: Graniteville, SC
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8am advisory followed by an 805 am advisory indicating the strengthening. that's some rapid update work. just looking at the system profile.. shear is going to be a non-issue shortly... the upper low is backing west of the system and now enhancing its outflow to an increasing degree. there is the issue of that dry air slot that has been impinging on the north and western sides of the storm since yesterday.. that should leave the system open sw by this afternoon. best bet is that the storm turns wnw this afternoon and takes a day or day and a half to slowly work the dry air slot out. think it will reach the florida coast around boca raton early afternoon friday as a category 1 hurricane. going to leave my al/ms as a major (prob cat 3) around late monday prog open for now... will probably correct this once the storm has negotiated florida if it needs it.
out to the east 97L is doing the multiple-center thing. never mind that it is probably generating near-gale or gale force winds in the convective region.. it is poorly organized now. the center that ran out yesterday is tucking back up to the convection.. another shot out overnight and is co-orbiting yesterday's center. models still recurve this thing unilaterally near 50w in a couple days. i'm holding my breath on this one.. the late period mid-latitude stall shown makes me think they're trying to bust it through a ridge, and that it will work its way further west. all it has to do is move slower than progged for the next 3-4 days and the ridge will build back, so i'm uncertain on it to say the least.
watch those convective complexes tagging along south and east of . with favorable there's the outside shot that they try to develop, or at least provide local weaknesses in the low level wind field that add jooks and jives to 's track. have to watch around the entire caribbean for such things.
the much-developed trailer wave to 97L is still getting some support, but convection devoid. it may activate in a few days, but right now is just a skeletal wave.
HF 1240z24august
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