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Archives >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3460
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
UPDATED Forecast [Re: Unregistered User]
      #48903 - Tue Aug 23 2005 11:01 PM

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 25.7N 78.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 26.1N 79.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 25SE 25SW 35NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 26.5N 81.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/NHC/TCMAT2.0508240248

this is an edited version of the 11 PM EDT Advisory.

Edited by danielw (Tue Aug 23 2005 11:02 PM)


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1364
Loc: Florida
Re: UPDATED Forecast [Re: danielw]
      #48907 - Tue Aug 23 2005 11:07 PM

Looks like they moved that forecast track a little more northward from the 5pm advisory. I am still concerned about the rain event for the state more than I am the wind; of course, this could change in the next 48 hours. Polk county doesn't need any more rain than it already has.
Time will tell. Looks like it's slowing down and starting to get its act together.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 998
Loc: Maryland 38.98N 76.50W
Re: katrina problems [Re: dem05]
      #48909 - Tue Aug 23 2005 11:08 PM

Ok, TD12...

The system has definately taken on a strong Comma appearence - that would seem to be Dvorak 1.5+, with SSD is saying 2.0 about an hour ago. The IR signature is definately getting its act together - less of a blob and more of a tightly defined Comma shape.

Models are still divergent - we'll have to wait for the overnight runs with the TD data input. Right now most of the models were run long enough ago that they were using Tropical Wave data, which is much harder to forcast tracks for. This is especially important becuase GFS seems to be giving an erroneous Atlantic track...so we really need to wait for the NOGAPS, CMC, and UKMET models.

The 11pm intensity chart table gives the storm a 35% chance of being hurricane strength guesstimated around landfall time (48 hours). As stated in the 11pm TD12 discussion at NHC, "THE GFDL STILL DOES NOT EVEN FORECAST STRENGTHENING TO A TROPICAL STORM. HOWEVER... THE SHIPS MODEL STILL INSISTS ON HURRICANE INTENSITY BY 48 HOURS BEFORE THE SYSTEM CROSSES FLORIDA..."

--RC
The rest of the paragraph...
HOWEVER... THE SHIPS MODEL STILL INSISTS ON
HURRICANE INTENSITY BY 48 HOURS BEFORE THE SYSTEM CROSSES
FLORIDA... WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODEST WIND SHEAR AND OVER VERY
WARM SSTS. AS MORE OF A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE SOLUTIONS... BUT
STILL LEANING TOWARD THE SHIPS... THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST A
LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY... BUT STILL
CALLS FOR A STRONG TROPICAL STORM TO APPROACH FLORIDA WITHIN THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
~danielw
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT2+shtml/240307.shtml


Edited by danielw (Tue Aug 23 2005 11:27 PM)


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2969
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: UPDATED Forecast [Re: Colleen A.]
      #48910 - Tue Aug 23 2005 11:10 PM

Had to turn on registered user only for replies tonight. Unfortunately. The watches arent' too surprising. The intensity will be the wildcard, tomorrow should be interesting for sure.

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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 998
Loc: Maryland 38.98N 76.50W
Re: UPDATED Forecast [Re: MikeC]
      #48913 - Tue Aug 23 2005 11:17 PM

Continuing from my previous post

Reading through more of the TD12 Discussion at the NHC:

GFL is the biggest outlier it seems, both in track and intensity. It fails to bring the storm to a TS at all, then it stalls the system over FL. Every other model, according to the NHC, takes it across FL. With ships showing TS by tomorrow and Hurricane before landfall, this could definately be interesting.

NHC is saying the band of convection has formed on the east side of the center - if that is the case then I'm not seeing any convection north, west, or south on IR. I wonder if the center may be realigning itself below the new convection soon?

--RC

Official NHC product may be found here.~danielw
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT2+shtml/240307.shtml

Edited by danielw (Tue Aug 23 2005 11:22 PM)


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Sheeper
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 59
Loc: Vero Beach, FL 27.62N 80.35W
Re: UPDATED Forecast [Re: MikeC]
      #48915 - Tue Aug 23 2005 11:20 PM

should make for an interesting thursday/friday. The track is expected more south from where I am (Vero Beach) but as the (volunteer) Red Cross Disaster Services Chair, it will be a very long couple of days. By tomorrow morning we'll probably activate our disaster plan and wait to see if the counties decide to open any shelters.

Here's to hoping for a "non-event"!

--------------------
Emergency Management Consultant & Trainer


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: Great Lakes 45.95N 84.55W
Re: UPDATED Forecast [Re: MikeC]
      #48919 - Tue Aug 23 2005 11:51 PM

I've posted a full, long update to the blogs. I'm further east and weaker than the other pros on here and have outlined why in the update. No real update to 97L's status other than what was posted last night and edited this afternoon, as TD 12 is the big game in town right now. As always, if you have any questions or comments, please feel free to let me know.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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Old Sailor
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 293
Loc: Florida
Re: UPDATED Forecast [Re: MikeC]
      #48924 - Wed Aug 24 2005 12:08 AM

I see by the lock down on replies the childern have not been playing well I guess.
The track on TD12 going to be interesting, if she stays weak may just track to W-NW all the way to the gulf with no land fall in FL except maybe the Keys..

Dave


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DebbiePSL
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 151
Loc: Saint Marys Georgia
Re: UPDATED Forecast [Re: Sheeper]
      #48925 - Wed Aug 24 2005 12:08 AM

the mets I just watched at 11:00 are saying it can make landfall anywhere from Cape Canaveral to Miami. If you are in Vero, aren't you under a warning? Just curious. I don't think we will have a clue what path it will take until morning possibly.

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DebbiePSL
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 151
Loc: Saint Marys Georgia
Re: UPDATED Forecast [Re: Clark]
      #48927 - Wed Aug 24 2005 12:11 AM

Great update Clark very informative. It helps someone like me that is new to storm tracking to better understand the reasoning for the forcasted path

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Old Sailor
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 293
Loc: Florida
Re: UPDATED Forecast [Re: DebbiePSL]
      #48928 - Wed Aug 24 2005 12:14 AM

Debbie:

Remember if you are in the area of the forecast cone then subject to a possible land fall. Don't folllow the thin line folow the cone.

Dave


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ralphfl
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 435
Re: UPDATED Forecast [Re: Old Sailor]
      #48929 - Wed Aug 24 2005 12:14 AM

lock down? not sure what you mean there.

Anyway i just want it to go fast as to sit over the state would be bad for everyone.


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DebbiePSL
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 151
Loc: Saint Marys Georgia
Re: UPDATED Forecast [Re: Old Sailor]
      #48931 - Wed Aug 24 2005 12:17 AM

Oh I don't Dave, both Frances and Jeanne made landfall here and I am a nervous wreck. I am fascinated with the storms but I also know the damage they can cause.

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SirCane
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 249
Loc: Pensacola, FL
Re: Tropical Depression 12 Forms Near the Bahamas, Tropical Storm Watches up Vero South [Re: MikeC]
      #48933 - Wed Aug 24 2005 12:25 AM

This reminds me a little of Hurricane Erin in 1995. Going to be interesting for South/Central Florida and the Gulf Coast. Question is how strong it will be when it hits Florida and how fast will it develop in the Gulf?

--------------------
Direct Hits:
Hurricane Erin (1995) 100 mph
Hurricane Opal (1995) 115 mph
Hurricane Ivan (2004) 130 mph
Hurricane Dennis (2005) 120 mph
http://www.hardcoreweather.com


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DebbiePSL
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 151
Loc: Saint Marys Georgia
Re: UPDATED Forecast [Re: Old Sailor]
      #48934 - Wed Aug 24 2005 12:25 AM

Dave I have a question, when this storm makes landfall will it lose intensity like Frances and Jeanne,and then if it goes across into the Gulf reintensify? Or does it depend on how long it moves across land?

Or anyone that can answer

Edited by DebbiePSL (Wed Aug 24 2005 12:30 AM)


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ralphfl
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 435
Re: UPDATED Forecast [Re: DebbiePSL]
      #48936 - Wed Aug 24 2005 12:33 AM

once it gets into the gulf it most likely will start to get stronger but how fast it goes once it gets there will make the difference in how strong it gets before a second landfall.

Now all this is IF the track as of now holds 5 days out.


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3460
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Watch and Warnings Graphics [Re: ralphfl]
      #48937 - Wed Aug 24 2005 12:47 AM

Melbourne NWS
http://www.srh.weather.gov/mlb/
Miami NWS
http://www.srh.weather.gov/mia/
Key West NWS
http://www.srh.weather.gov/eyw/

Hurricane Local Statements
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/index_hls2.shtml

Hurricane Local Statements...do not necessarily imply that the storm is or will be a hurricane. That is the NWS official product name.

Edited by danielw (Wed Aug 24 2005 12:58 AM)


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl. 30.16N 85.76W
Re: Watch and Warnings Graphics [Re: danielw]
      #48938 - Wed Aug 24 2005 01:41 AM

speaking of watches and warning, i like what NHC doing by publicly showing the breakpoints...

TWELVE WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2005

.TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE

FLC011-061-085-086-099-111-AMZ555-575-630-650-651-670-671-240900-
/E.NEW.KNHC.TR.A.1012.050824T0300Z-000000T0000Z/
1100 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2005

OCEAN-REEF-COASTAL-FL 25.36N 80.31W
VERO-BEACH-FL 27.66N 80.35W

$$

FLC087-GMZ052-053-072-073-240900-
/E.NEW.KNHC.TR.A.1012.050824T0300Z-000000T0000Z/
1100 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2005

SEVEN-MILE-BRIDGE-FL 24.70N 81.14W
OCEAN-REEF-FL 25.33N 80.26W

$$

ATTN...WFO...MFL...EYW...MLB...


in other words this will help with showing where watches and warnings are at...If you have the product to view them......so the local NWS offices and tv stations weather offices should have up todate information quicker........hey they give the lat/long. of these areas in the text.....should work great with the NWS VTEC.... more info HERE


Well, looks like i will have to deal with another system in a few days....i know i am prepared, beacuse of all the "practice/near" misses we have had here in PCB.....i don't think this will be the last for me this year neither....
I have a bad feeling about September......

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl. 30.16N 85.76W
Re: Watch and Warnings Graphics [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #48941 - Wed Aug 24 2005 01:58 AM

just read the 2a adv.... and i am looking at recon data now..... its good to update the software on the hurricane hunters, but its hard to reunderstand the decoding . *L*

Latest i got, they were in nw quad?

URNT11 KNHC 240519
97779 05144 40249 77700 07700 07015 2120/ /9785
RMK AF307 0212A CYCLONE OB 09
NW QUAD

looking at data, haven't seen anything that would show change in strength.

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl. 30.16N 85.76W
Re: Watch and Warnings Graphics [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #48942 - Wed Aug 24 2005 02:13 AM

URNT12 KNHC 240609
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 24/05:49:00Z
B. 23 deg 47 min N
076 deg 11 min W
C. 925 mb 748 m
D. NA kt
E. deg nm
F. 070 deg 020 kt
G. 308 deg 071 nm
H. EXTRAP 1007 mb
I. 21 C/ 772 m
J. 22 C/ 773 m
K. 20 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/ 9
O. 0.02 / 6 nm
P. AF307 0212A CYCLONE OB 10
MAX FL WIND 20 KT N QUAD 05:25:30 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 925 MB
BANDING E TO S ON RADAR


going through some changes? seems might be weaker...but there is a new flare up of storms near center

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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