WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master
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Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
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At 5 a.m., is 90 miles due east of Ft. Lauderdale moving west at 8 m.p.h. It looks like Northern Broward County currently has the best chance of landfall. The storm has remained the same overnight and that's a good thing. Here in Palm Beach County there is actually a half day of school until noon today, even though we have a Hurricane Warning and the storm is only 100 miles away. That is crazy! Looks like this storm may not intensify into a hurricane, hopefully(my opinion). Pressure here down to 29.80"
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Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.
Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4
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native
Weather Guru
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Posts: 148
Loc: SE Florida
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Glad to see lots of us got some sleep:
5am updates are in:
Full Update: www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT2%2Bshtml/241445.shtml
NOT a significant amount of change since 2am update. IMO, this is possibly the beginning of the forecasted slow down??
Edited by RedingtonBeachGuy (Thu Aug 25 2005 10:06 AM)
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emackl
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 205
Loc: Indianapolis
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This comment is what amazes me:
TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE RESPONDS TO THIS PATTERN WITH A SPREAD OF
LANDFALLS IN FLORIDA FROM THE KEYS TO NORTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
Sounds like we will just have to watch and see for the day. The cone is still so large for such a close storm. seems to have their hands full.
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Justin in Miami
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 269
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
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WXMAN if the storm does go into North Broward...you will be on the worst side of the storm (can't forget that!). Does anyone notice a little south of west job of the center on radar?
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/amx_N0R_lp.shtml
Could be a wobble, we'll have to wait and see. Oh and get this, we have to work this morning until 12pm. I don't think folks down here GET what a hurricane warning means! It means you don't work!
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Ron Basso
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 267
Loc: hernando beach, FL
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Miami radar is showing that the eastern half of the eyewall is getting stronger and spiral bands are now developing on the NW side of the storm. The storm appears to be nearly stationary. If convection manages to completely wrap around the center, look out for some rapid strengthening.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p19r0/si.kamx.shtml
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RJB
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jlauderdal
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 97
Loc: Fort Lauderdale, FLorida
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Quote:
WXMAN if the storm does go into North Broward...you will be on the worst side of the storm (can't forget that!). Does anyone notice a little south of west job of the center on radar?
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/amx_N0R_lp.shtml
Could be a wobble, we'll have to wait and see. Oh and get this, we have to work this morning until 12pm. I don't think folks down here GET what a hurricane warning means! It means you don't work!
yes i saw the SW movement, lets hope its temporary and not the gensis of the solution taking place. 
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teesda
Registered User
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Posts: 4
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Go figure. I have been tracking hurricanes for over 10 years now. I am supposed to be getting married (for the first time) in Clearwater 11am Sunday morning. My finance told me that it was just destined to find me. Hopefully it will fizzle out and no one will have to worry about it, but that seems very unlikely.
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Beach
Weather Guru
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Posts: 187
Loc: Cocoa Beach/Banana River
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Virginia Key
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=VAKF1
Is showing West winds:
Wind Direction (WDIR): W ( 280 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 8.0 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 15.9 kts
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.80 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.04 in ( Falling )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 81.1 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 87.3 °F
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Beach
Weather Guru
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Posts: 187
Loc: Cocoa Beach/Banana River
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http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=FWYF1
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=MLRF1
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=LONF1
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
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Posts: 828
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
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8am just out.Still moving west at 8mph.If it does not slow down then we should be better off.Winds still at 50mph.It is stating to feel like at storm here,we had a gust from the north at 23mph.Nail biting time,will it slow down and get stronger????70 miles from Fort Lauderdale.
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
Edited by ftlaudbob (Thu Aug 25 2005 11:55 AM)
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Beach
Weather Guru
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Posts: 187
Loc: Cocoa Beach/Banana River
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Here in Merrit Island we had a NE wind gust of 33mpg @ 6:53am
this morning.
We just had another NE wind gust of 24 mph
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MikeC
Admin
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Posts: 4544
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Going to create a new topic and link it for Situation Reports from your area at this link
Ie if a band comes through, or you find something in your immediate local area that you personally experienced, put it there. General comments and the like and public information can remain in the main thread!
Unofficial forecasts can go here
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Rasvar
Weather Master
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Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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Well, unless we start to get some explosive growth in the next five hours, I think we are only looking at a minimal Cat 1 on landfall. Looks to be within 20 miles either side of Deerfield Beach. Although, I would say 50 miles either side of Deerfield needs to watch out.
The solution once she crosses is still open. I am not sure I buy the coast hugger. I think that 's forecast path is still on target. I think a lot of the result will depend on if the storm follows the wsw track influence across Florida or the wnw influence.
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Jim
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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moderate stregthning today into tonight. Pressure down to 998mb now but could be lower,,,need recon in there asap. Movement looks like sw but also there is a dry slot near the center,, that should fill in later today. 11am winds should go up to 60mph but never know what they will find...obs, etc...
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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Looking over the models runs:
* Both (00Z) and UKMET (00Z) match the westerly track pretty closely.
* (00Z) takes the system more west northwest.
* (06Z) and (00Z) are swinging the system southwest around the tip of FL.
I find the last two curious. While the has been consistantly showing a southward swing, it is the 00Z run. The , which had been showing the system sticking to the Atlantic yesterday, now, on the 06Z run, is do a sudden drop south then southwest just as nears the coast. It looks like both the and actually cause the system to be disrupted slightly near the coast, but then reform it slightly south allowing the jog around FL. If this pans out, it "might" be good new for east coast of FL, but certainly not for the gulf.
Given the past reliability of the and models, we can't ignore these potential tracks.
Model tracks: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/
I used 850mb Vorticity for the tracks, except where the 850mb is missing. There I used the 310K Potential Vorticity.
Edited by Random Chaos (Thu Aug 25 2005 12:34 PM)
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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almost all the models for days now expected a wsw or sw turn. Some more then others yes. Anyways the keeps saying it will slow down, but it hasnt yet, as of right now,,couple days ago it was only suppose to be near Nassau. Its already 100 miles wnw of that. I expect it to move wsw over the next day or 2 and almost stall out..drift NNW then move N later Saturday into Sunday with a bend Sunday to the NNEor NE even. I dont think this will pass 83.5W at the most west on Saturday night. Looks like the exit of Florida might be near Naples Saturday morning.
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Justin in Miami
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 269
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
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uhh....those tracks still show Hurricane Force winds in South FL...i wouldn't think that is good news...looks like it is heading on a nudge south of west right now...maybe it is a radar illusion? or the real thing?
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alfrescobeats
Registered User
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Posts: 1
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Hi - my apologies first and foremost as I have no idea re-weather watching, although im more than used to bad weather living in glasgow, scotland.
I am due to fly into orlando sanford at 1540 local time on friday for a two week holiday and I have been weatherwatching in FL for sometime now and picked up on the severe weather alerts issued. Could you please advise me how the storm may affect my locale (orlando) and how likely is it that the flights will be delayed?
Any other advice would be greatly appreciated.
cheers
chris
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Ronn
User
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Posts: 115
Loc: Seminole, FL
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Based on radar out of Miami, it appears that the eye is finally starting to wrap around. We should see an increase in intensity by the 11am advisory, and my guess is that this will probably come ashore at 75-85mph.
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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Looking at the radar site out of Miami, it looks to me that is NORTH of Miami. Am I seeing things? If it's moving, it doesn't look to be moving very fast. If I am looking at this radar loop correctly, it is already north of Miami and it appears that landfall would occur somewhere between Ft. Lauderdale and WPB.
FYI ... anyone living on the Central West coast of Florida should read the NWS Discussion from 4:45am today. It is the most detailed disco I've ever seen.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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