SirCane
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 249
Loc: Pensacola, FL
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I don't know but this thing could get very ugly. There's no reason for it not to. I hope it doesn't get stronger than a 3 but that could be wishful thinking.
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Direct Hits:
Hurricane Erin (1995) 100 mph
Hurricane Opal (1995) 115 mph
Hurricane Ivan (2004) 130 mph
Hurricane Dennis (2005) 120 mph
http://www.hardcoreweather.com
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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cnn just showed flhurricane on tv.....great web site to view
-- thanks Storm..
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by RedingtonBeachGuy (Fri Aug 26 2005 07:58 PM)
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TheElNino
Registered User
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Posts: 9
Loc: Orlando, FL
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I just read JB's article, he thinks may go all the way down to 920mb on Sunday afternoon and any weakening prior to landfall will be minor. I'd agree with him since the water temps in the far northern Gulf have warmed up to 88 - 90 degrees since used up some of the energy last month. With light shear, very warm water, an upper high providing divergence, only dry air may prevent from approaching Camille levels (905mb). kind of looks like Camille even.
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Hawkeyewx
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 99
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I was thinking the same thing about the dry air. It is pretty clearly almost a stalemate now between the dry air being pulled in from the north and the deep moisture feed from the south. There has been some northerly mid to upper level flow over the storm since just before it hit Florida and so far it shows no sign of abating. The models show moving under the center of the upper level high in the next one to two days so that should allow further strengthening.
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MrSpock
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 296
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Hello everyone, it's been a while since I've been here.
These model forecasts are so tough to judge. The actually had it moving off the SE coast for one run the other day, now it takes it into the midwest. I thought the ETA was out to lunch when it moved it SW across Florida, and it ended up doing that. Hard to predict movement when it is slow and erratic. Having said all that, the link below is from the NWS on the "improvements" (hard to see them yet lol) in the .
http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2005/s2491.htm
Looking at a water vapor loop starting yesterday, it looks like the trough that moved off the east coast was followed by a building ridge that suppressed the storm track. It appears that effect shouldn't persist much longer.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/movies/g8wv/g8wvjava.html
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pcola
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
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Model plots continue to move farther west....way west...after and , this is driving me nuts! If this hits near Pensacola..Iwill return in a few weeks with the new screen name of Arizona!!!!!!
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Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!
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hurricane expert
Really Not an Expert
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Posts: 105
Loc: florida
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I dont trust these models right know they have the system moving way to west
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D3m3NT3DVoRT3X
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 48
Loc: The Burg < FL
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if anyone was wondering where JB's videos went to .. watch point counter point he siad they were never suposed to be on yahoo vids... @ any rate .. with the storm moving as slow as it is . kind of just sitting there from what i can see on radar will that have any change on the the track .. IE: why the has not moved thier track thats much .. ?
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Ed in Va
Weather Master
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Posts: 489
Loc:
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Agreed...lool at this spaghetti run:
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early2.png
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Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
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Big Red Machine
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 223
Loc: Polk City, FL
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Katrina almost appears to have stalled judging by the radar out of Key West (and poor Key West!). To the untrained eye, the center of circulation has not moved for almost an hour.
Northern eyewall still can't seem to close.
http://radar.weather.gov/radar/loop/DS.p19r0/si.kbyx.shtml
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Psyber
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 231
Loc: Ontario, Canada
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How could they? Who thinks a that a hurricane is going to continue to move at 6-7mph an hour west even though theres a relative weakness in the GOM. Very bizarre caine'.
Quote:
I was wondering the same thing. I don't think they were prepared to get a pounding like they are getting.
Liz
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pcola
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
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Many of the models have moved over 400 miles west since this AM.....any logical explanations??
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Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!
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Steve H1
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 309
Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
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Just an FYI...NRL has 90L up for the 1009 mb low at 10N/35W. No other detail yet, but they have it at 25 knots. Agree Red, not a whole lot of movement during the past hour.
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Psyber
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 231
Loc: Ontario, Canada
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Exactly...all it's doing is keeping it in the GOM with nice warm water...spinning it up... 
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mbfly
Weather Guru
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Posts: 119
Loc: Mobile, Alabama
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Quote:
Agreed...lool at this spaghetti run:
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early2.png
OK, I wasn't worried this morning.............. NOW I am !! 
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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Quote:
Model plots continue to move farther west....way west...after and , this is driving me nuts! If this hits near Pensacola..Iwill return in a few weeks with the new screen name of Arizona!!!!!!
Remember what I said earlier about the padded room LOL!
Yes, faster than you can make a pb&j, the model guidance clustered around the central FL peninsula, then went to evenly dist over N GOM, now clustering around LA/MS (what's with the latest BAMS?). FLIP FLOP! (I just love saying that  -- it doesn't actually apply, because all the change means is that each run is taking into account the newest weather data, and these chaotic systems aren't the easiest things to track long range with so many variables).
I prefer giddy silliness to the padded room. Just wait until Sun night; we'll all be a little goofy by then.
I expect we'll see a met post soon that'll explain the reasoning behind the changes in model guidance in terms of the overall weather pats. I think everyone is waiting for the 5pm advis and to see what shakes out from that.
One hard call after another...that's really what is making most interesting.
Well one good thing, as long as stays put, we can watch her on Miami long-range radar.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
Edited by Margie (Fri Aug 26 2005 08:15 PM)
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D3m3NT3DVoRT3X
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 48
Loc: The Burg < FL
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as far as directions goes .. i would guess .. stationary i've been sitting @ my desk here @ work watching old girl sit and spin .. moving no where for maybe the last 1 1/2 -2 hrs . it could be my untrianed eyes .. from watching the same loop .. but anyone else seeing the same thing ? .
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HanKFranK
User
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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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well, i'm watching how 97L looks now. the latest t-rating was 1.0, so since has switched to that as their reasoning to not classify the system (usual baseline is 1.5)... that's just the latest twist. it is true that the LLC has turned into one of those transient mini-vortex type centers that reforms rather than moves, but i'd reiterate that this feature is not classified because it's in the open atlantic and not in the gulf. i'm thinking it will finally break through the shear zone into something less hostile (it's fought the subsidence admirably).. and the earlier model progs of it sensing a weakness and turning up are looking ok.. even though they're still getting it hung up in no-mans land further to the north.
the site and ssd rating list didn't show another invest, but that feature around 12/38 is getting better organized, slowly. i think the next number will be 98L, unless TD 12/katrina took it by default when it emerged out of what was tracking as old 10. the system in front of it is probably creating enough of a weakness for the new feature to sense it and turn up, but the ridge is rebuilding early next week, so it might not do more than gain some latitude and continue west. some of the globals were taking it all the way across earlier... it might try if the zonal ridge progged next week verifies and holds.
oh yeah, and there's this big hurricane in the gulf, by the way. guess we'll revert back to the real story.
hmm.. we made cnn? hope they know we're mostly amateurs.
HF 2028z26august
Edited by HanKFranK (Fri Aug 26 2005 08:29 PM)
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disneyfanfl
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 24
Loc: Jacksonville, FL
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What is the ETA model? I noticed on the spaghetti run that someone posted that it's the only one that is close (in fact, east of) the official track. I agree with what someone else asked, which is why the track hasn't moved all that much despite drastic moves in the models. I know they usually don't make huge changes, but they have stuck to the central panhandle of Florida with only slight alterations. Could this ETA model have something to do with that?
I guess the 5PM disco might shed some light on this. I just wonder if her lack of movement might shift the track even more one way or another.
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doug
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
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Yep confirmed that by watching several radar loops on the Plymouth State site...she is rotating about herself and has been for about two hours..
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doug
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