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Archives 2000s >> 2006 Forecast Lounge

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MikeCAdministrator
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Reged: Sun
Posts: 4239
Loc: Orlando, FL
Katrina Second Landfall Unofficial Forecasts
      #50083 - Fri Aug 26 2005 11:26 AM

Here's a new topic to speculate landfall for Katrina's second run. Posts here are guesses, and shouldn't be used for anything other than a basic what if type of discussion.

For a few what if's

Here's a few maps...

Katrina Plotted with Dennis
Katrina Plotted with Ivan
Katrina Plotted with Opal

Katrina Plotted with all of the above (may be slow)


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MikeCAdministrator
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Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Katrina Second Landfall Unofficial Forecasts [Re: MikeC]
      #50240 - Fri Aug 26 2005 05:14 PM

Anyone else have any suppositions, especially since the track moved west.

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mollyd
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Reged: Fri
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Re: Katrina Second Landfall Unofficial Forecasts [Re: MikeC]
      #50259 - Fri Aug 26 2005 05:38 PM

160mph gusts on landfall - very nasty, very dangerous, though..

'THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE MODEL IS MORE ROBUST AND BRINGS Katrina UP TO 129 KT JUST BEFORE LANDFALL'. This would give 180mph gusts.


from this forum:

http://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk/forum/forums/thread-view.asp?tid=23335&start=226&posts=227

somewhere between NO and mobile

I'd leave now if I lived there.


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rwjaco19
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Reged: Wed
Posts: 4
Loc: Charlotte Co., FL
Re: Katrina Second Landfall Unofficial Forecasts [Re: MikeC]
      #50271 - Fri Aug 26 2005 05:54 PM

I'm sittin here in Biloxi and researching some of the history for canes in this area. I don't like to wishcast and it does not look good if this thing keeps going west it is definately not good for New Orleans and us here along the back bay. Can anybody tell me why this thing would not go back east and what is steering it up this way? Thank in advnace.

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sisnam
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Re: Katrina Second Landfall Unofficial Forecasts [Re: MikeC]
      #50272 - Fri Aug 26 2005 05:59 PM

Well here we go again!

We have been on the Eastern shore of Mobile bay for 2 years and it look like we have huricane number 3 making a visit.

Is this rash of land falls at our front door a result of chance or are there marine and/or upper level wind conditions that are bringing them here?

sisnam


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Ben Wallace
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Reged: Fri
Posts: 6
Loc: Zephyrhills, FL
Re: Katrina Second Landfall Unofficial Forecasts [Re: MikeC]
      #50329 - Fri Aug 26 2005 08:38 PM

I say somewhere between Bioxi and New Orleans, this could get really ugly especally if it comes straght into New Orleans as a category 4.

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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
Re: Katrina Second Landfall Unofficial Forecasts [Re: Ben Wallace]
      #50382 - Fri Aug 26 2005 09:42 PM

I'm thinking NO or west, though not far into TX. The continued southern track makes me think a landfall east of NO isn't likely.

I'm also thinking the intensity models are conservative. Cat 4 definately, possibly even cat 5. The question is whether it maintains the intensity through to landfall. Only time will tell.


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KimmieL
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Reged: Sat
Posts: 26
Loc: Baton Rouge, La
Re: Katrina Second Landfall Unofficial Forecasts [Re: Random Chaos]
      #50562 - Sat Aug 27 2005 01:02 AM

Hard to say where and how strong, but have been watching the WSW movement for over 24 hours now. So, because of this movement, I am going with Morgan City, LA, east to Gulfport, MS! Strength -strong cat 3

Kimmie
Betsy '65
Andrew '92


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Katrina Second Landfall Unofficial Forecasts [Re: KimmieL]
      #50634 - Sat Aug 27 2005 08:31 AM

More what if style plots:

Hurricane Camille and Hurricane Katrina plotted
Hurricane Frederick and Hurricane Katrina plotted


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Katrina Second Landfall Unofficial Forecasts [Re: MikeC]
      #51087 - Sat Aug 27 2005 11:40 PM

Hurricane Georges (1996) and Katrina

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reasonmclucus
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 17
Loc: Kansas
Re: Katrina Second Landfall Unofficial Forecasts [Re: MikeC]
      #51572 - Sun Aug 28 2005 03:11 PM

Looks like she will hit west of NO, fortunately considering the city's greater vulnerability due to its low elevation. East would be better, but she doesn't seem to be turning quickly enough to do so. Although abrupt turns aren't unknown.
http://flhurricane.com/googlemap.php?1998s7-2005s12


A bigger question would be how strong she will be. Her winds are already high enough( 175 mph) to potentially qualify as a category 6 if there were a Category 6 on the scale. The Weather Channel is reporting minimum low pressure as 902mb as of 2:25 EDT. She has strengthened rapidly over the last day so she could become stronger, particularly considering that the warming of the surface waters began along the Gulf Shore and expanded into the Gulf over the last week or so.

--------------------
Almost only counts in horseshoes, hand grenades and hurricanes.


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