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Archives >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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Bloodstar
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 434
Loc: Georgia Tech 33.78N 84.40W
are the Models out to lunch? [Re: Margie]
      #50567 - Sat Aug 27 2005 01:11 AM

Hey everyone,

I hesitate to say this, but thinking it through, I'm starting to think the models are out to lunch on this storm, particularly this model run. Unless some sort of stronger steering current arrives, I suspect the storm is going to continue it's wsw motion for at least another 12 hours or so.

Why is that important? because it will give the storm more time to recurve to the east when it is finally picked up. Watching radar, the storm is still (to quote the discussion) heading wsw and at a fast enough clip to be obvious on the radar (yes, I know you can't alway trust radar to show a storms motion, but on this one I feel pretty confident of the motions). None of the models are picking up that wsw motion currently.

So, what does that mean? Well, I expect the model runs to either start trending back with a harder turn to the NE, or strangely enough, to trend way west and not really recurve at all. At this point, I really don't think the mets were joking about anywhere from phoenix, AZ to Naples could be hit by this storm.

(I mention the WSW motion because none of the models progged a motion this far south. (even UKMET had a turn north of where the storm is now) And as was also pointed out by Clark, small changes now reflect large changes later in a storm track. So I won't quite say the current model runs are useless, but I'm tending to think along those lines)

-Mark

--------------------
M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2018.


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00cj
Weather Watcher


Reged: Mon
Posts: 26
Loc: Panama City Beach, F.L.
Re: are the Models out to lunch? [Re: Bloodstar]
      #50568 - Sat Aug 27 2005 01:21 AM

cajun cooking for the models ?...bloodstar i think that , that is a very good possibiliy. The way i see it the longer and slower she moves wsw then her turn to the north will be more extreme..and then maybe even Ne...if that trough does pick it up which all the models have it doing eventually....also agree that it could just keep going further west....seems like a tuff one to predict for all the mets out there....good luck to all

Edited by 00cj (Sat Aug 27 2005 01:25 AM)


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Rasvar
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
Re: are the Models out to lunch? [Re: Bloodstar]
      #50569 - Sat Aug 27 2005 01:22 AM

Maybe it is just me and I am tired. I was looking at a two hour long range radar loop out of Key West on a pay site. It sure seems like forward motion has slowed. Maybe it just seems like that to me since the resolution is not as good on the long range. Anyone else seeing this?

--------------------
Jim


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
distractions [Re: Rasvar]
      #50573 - Sat Aug 27 2005 01:38 AM

there was some talk of it this morning, but when the major hurricane progs started and shifted along the central gulf coast, it hasn't been mentioned since.. but there has to have been some kind of rainfall over western cuba. that large band of deep convection south of the core of Katrina has been laid across the eastern parts of the island all day and all evening. cuba has never been under any watches or warnings, but thus far they've probably had the worst of Katrina in terms of flooding.
i'm still headscratching on the forecast track. earlier i went well east of my initial ideas.. then the forecast track started swinging west and is further west than anywhere i've ever had it. the best case scenario for what should be a very powerful hurricane would be the central or western part of louisiana.. lots of swampland and not too many people living inland either. either side of that are long stretches of coastline with more vulnerable population centers and more infrastructure to wreck.
97L the NHC has given up on. the center is still trying to break the shear zone, only now the upper flow in the central atlantic is reorganizing and there is a good upper westerly flow just about everywhere. might finally kill the thing. there goes another 'could-have-been' system.
90L to its southeast is under an east-west oriented upper ridge. should stay under it for the next few and slowly develop. globals aren't overly enthusiastic over it, but most keep it discernable and out of trouble. will see. the consensus is showing some activity with the next wave as well.
in the long range.. as Katrina is going out a good trough should settle into the east. have to watch the western atlantic caribbean for a pattern-pulse response as it lifts out in early september. or for whatever might get by it.
HF 0538z27august
i'm just gonna set my landfall point back at the ms/al border for monday, late morning. strong category 3. might cut my losses. -HF

Edited by HanKFranK (Sat Aug 27 2005 01:59 AM)


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: are the Models out to lunch? [Re: Rasvar]
      #50574 - Sat Aug 27 2005 01:55 AM

Quote:

I was looking at a two hour long range radar loop out of Key West on a pay site. It sure seems like forward motion has slowed. Anyone else seeing this?



No, in fact it seems to be cruising now although it was nearly stationary for a short time earlier this evening.

It is wobbling and so I think it is intensifying. On the 2:45Z, 3:15Z, and 3:45Z it jumped WNW and then an equally big jog almost due S. It is looking even better on sat now around the eye. I can't wait to see the recon results and the 2am update (which should be real soon).

2am update showed incremental increase in intensity which I am assuming is extrapolated until the recon (which if very different could result in a special update?) - pressure drop 2 more mb to 963mb, windspeed increase 5 more mph to 110mph.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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ShanaTX
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 226
Loc: Texas 30.40N 97.64W
Re: are the Models out to lunch? [Re: Margie]
      #50575 - Sat Aug 27 2005 02:04 AM

2am is out 15a

Quote:

Repeating the 2 am EDT position...24.4 N... 84.0 W. Movement
toward...west-southwest near 8 mph. Maximum sustained winds...110
mph. Minimum central pressure... 963 mb.




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DebbiePSL
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 151
Loc: Saint Marys Georgia
Re: are the Models out to lunch? [Re: ShanaTX]
      #50576 - Sat Aug 27 2005 02:16 AM

Just heard on TWC it has been reported Kat is now down to 950 mb according to data just recieved

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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3502
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: are the Models out to lunch? [Re: DebbiePSL]
      #50577 - Sat Aug 27 2005 02:19 AM

URNT12 KNHC 270612
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 27/05:53:30Z
B. 24 deg 23 min N
083 deg 59 min W
C. 700 mb 2673 m
D. NA kt
E. deg nm
F. 048 deg 091 kt
G. 325 deg 009 nm
H. 950 mb
I. 14 C/ 3045 m
J. 17 C/ 3040 m
K. 13 C/ NA
L. OPEN NNW
M. E06/20/15
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF304 1212A Katrina OB 04
MAX FL WIND 91 KT NW QUAD 05:50:50 Z
MAX FL TEMP 17 C, 325 / 9NM
EXCELLENT RADAR PRESENTATION


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Bloodstar
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 434
Loc: Georgia Tech 33.78N 84.40W
Re: are the Models out to lunch? [Re: DebbiePSL]
      #50578 - Sat Aug 27 2005 02:20 AM

vortex message Duplication removed

So yep, down to 950
that's a pretty big drop, Cat 3 by 5am?

I'm really at a loss for words at this point
so I'm going to simply watch and I don't know
just see if I notice anything...

-mark

--------------------
M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2018.

Edited by Bloodstar (Sat Aug 27 2005 02:22 AM)


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: 45.95N 84.55W
Re: are the Models out to lunch? [Re: Bloodstar]
      #50580 - Sat Aug 27 2005 02:26 AM

Sorry for the one line post, but that pretty much sums up the general consensus of a lot of meteorologists at this point. Intensity isn't as surprising as the track and continued motion, though. Best bet? Sleep on it overnight and hope the morning brings a fresh perspective on the storm....I know that's what I'm going to do.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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ShanaTX
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 226
Loc: Texas 30.40N 97.64W
Re: are the Models out to lunch? [Re: Bloodstar]
      #50581 - Sat Aug 27 2005 02:27 AM

From what they've just posted ... the pressure's a Cat 3... and it's only 1 mph (according to the 15a) away from Cat 3 sustained winds of 111 ... (I'm looking at the Saffir-Simpson Scale

So... Cat 3 by 3 am seems to be possible...


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3502
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Recon [Re: Bloodstar]
      #50582 - Sat Aug 27 2005 02:28 AM

Sorry about the duplication.
Recon transmitted this report at 27/05:53:30Z
at the location of the center.

At 05:55:30Z I'm seeing a flight level wind of 104 kts.

That would be the SE Eyewall area. (from the flight direction NW to SE).


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1153
Loc: fl
Re: are the Models out to lunch? [Re: danielw]
      #50583 - Sat Aug 27 2005 02:29 AM

Im posting this late as I have to get up early. Anyways this is very brief....Katrina should be at least 135mph by morning. I expected originally for this to happen saturday night but she is 1 day ahead of schedule due to her getting onshore florida much earlier.
Anyways she has gone more sw then the models showed as I predicted earlier today and last night. Now thing is I said she will eventually turn NNW tomorrow with a bend to the NE later Saturday night into Sunday. You know that was speculation and against the models. I do see how she can still do this. Only way she can is for her to slow down due to a weak trough that slid into the NE gulf right now. Might push her more ssw for few hours. Infact last hour she wobbled that way. I would think for her to come back to Florida she will have to be pushed more Sw and slow down near 85-86w then make the move N today. This will give time for the strong high to weaken and have the trough entering the ohio valley to dig down into the SE US this weekend.
If this doesnt happen then I expect she will be on the western edge of the model consensus and go towards TX or just into Mexico by midweek.


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3502
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
New Thread [Re: danielw]
      #50584 - Sat Aug 27 2005 02:31 AM

Ed has posted a New Thread...

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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: are the Models out to lunch? [Re: danielw]
      #50585 - Sat Aug 27 2005 02:35 AM

Isn't that just amazing? I thought it looked like it was really deepening and the eyewall area looking better on sat. Even with that dry air, and not being able to completely close the eye wall, and with only a 3deg differential (could that be from the weak NW side?) it is still doing it's darndest to intensify.

OK so with 91kt in the NW quad, and 950mb, don't you expect to see Cat 3 winds in the SE quad? It seems likely. And if so, then do you think a Cat 3 status even with the open eyewall? A pressure of 950mb would seem to put it squarely in that category.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida 30.51N 86.50W
Re: are the Models out to lunch? [Re: Margie]
      #50600 - Sat Aug 27 2005 04:35 AM

Quote:

Isn't that just amazing? I thought it looked like it was really deepening and the eyewall area looking better on sat. Even with that dry air, and not being able to completely close the eye wall, and with only a 3deg differential (could that be from the weak NW side?) it is still doing it's darndest to intensify.

OK so with 91kt in the NW quad, and 950mb, don't you expect to see Cat 3 winds in the SE quad? It seems likely. And if so, then do you think a Cat 3 status even with the open eyewall? A pressure of 950mb would seem to put it squarely in that category.




Well... I was right ti appears. I woke up and Katrina is basically still going ... NOWHERE fast!
Anyway if the pressure is down to 950 I suspect winds will be at least 120 at the 4pm CST advs.

EDIT!!! Pressure is down to 945!!!

EDIT: Just refresh the WV loop. It's DEFINATELY got a Cat 3 signature on that loop. Looks to me like the southward component has disappeared overnight even though the NHC does not say it has as of 2am CT.

EDIT: 5am ET Advisory! Katrina upgraded to Cat 3 with 115 mph winds, now moving DUE WEST at 6mph. Landfall forecast: Direct hit on New Orleans pretty much - officially just west of the mouth of the Mississippi River, crossing Ponchatrain(sp?) with 120 knot (138 MPH) winds. Doomsday scenario coming together for the Greater N.O. area. Have they started evac yet?

Of note in my opinion: the forecast and model runs change significantly from 10am yesterday to 4pm and then again from 4pm to 10pm last night, Central Time. Overnight it appears that the models changed very little, and the official forecast at 4am CT is quite similar to the forecast at 10pm, in actuality. Frightening if you live near N.O.


Edited by Ed Dunham (Sat Aug 27 2005 10:10 AM)


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WeatherNut
Weather Master


Reged: Wed
Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA 33.81N 84.34W
Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch [Re: wxman007]
      #50617 - Sat Aug 27 2005 06:37 AM

Thanks! That was driving me crazy! If good old Nash Roberts is still around I bet the'll have him on the air again

--------------------
Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since


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