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Subtropical Storm Ernesto forms in the Central N. Atlantic, no threat to land areas.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 311 (Nate) , Major: 329 (Maria) Florida - Any: 339 (Irma) Major: 339 (Irma)
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Archives 2000s >> 2006 Forecast Lounge

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hurricane expert
Really Not an Expert


Reged: Thu
Posts: 105
Loc: florida
Katrina Strengthens - Destination Uncertain
      #50668 - Sat Aug 27 2005 10:15 AM

Is there a chance this track could make a major shift say to like the big bend of flordia.

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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida 30.51N 86.50W
Re: Katrina Strengthens - Destination Uncertain [Re: hurricane expert]
      #50671 - Sat Aug 27 2005 10:18 AM

Quote:

Is there a chance this track could make a major shift say to like the big bend of flordia.




I'll say it again. My untrained, unprofessional feeling is that Katrina will ultimately make landfall somewhere between Cosumel, MX, and Key West, Florida. That area also include Brownsville, TX. To narrow it down further is guessing

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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Genesis
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 121
Re: Katrina Strengthens - Destination Uncertain [Re: hurricane expert]
      #50672 - Sat Aug 27 2005 10:19 AM

Quote:

Is there a chance this track could make a major shift say to like the big bend of flordia.




Anything is possible, but that looks low-probability.

HOWEVER - this storm will be ugly enough that the surge can be trouble FAR from where it goes in. Remember Dennis - hits well clear of Appalachicola, yet there is massive surge trouble over there with Highway 98 damage 200nm away from the impact point!

Don't be complacent. This storm is going to be bigger and at least as strong as Dennis, and depending on exactly how the path comes through it may get really ugly a long way off from a standpoint of surge - and inland, in terms of rain.


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