Baudelaire
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I live in the panhandle- Fort Walton/Destin/Niceville area. Should we be worried? Having dealt with and within just the past year I know what this is all about, but it's hard making a call on staying or leaving when it's not currently predicted to hit us head on. What do you guys think? Stay/Leave/Wait?
Edited by Baudelaire (Sat Aug 27 2005 11:09 PM)
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pcola
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if you live in a storm surge area I say leave. There will be surge way to the east of lanfall. If you live in a good structure, stay, watch, unless there is a major change in track. I live in Gulf Breeze, staying, but the bags are packed just in case.
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Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!
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Hugh
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Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
I live in the panhandle- Fort Walton/Destin/Niceville area. Should we be worried? Having dealt with and within just the past year I know what this is all about, but it's hard making a call on staying or leaving when it's not currently predicted to hit us head on. What do you guys think? Stay/Leave/Wait?
I live in the same area and I never leave, but if you live in a flood zone, leave. Even if the current forecast holds - which I do not believe it will based upon the apparent northward motion that others are now seeing too I think - FWB will get surge that will likely breach Hwy 98 yet again, and maybe some heavy rain too. I'm not expecting strong winds (maybe 20-30 mph) if the landfall is N.O. or west, but that could change rapidly.
We should have a better idea tomorrow morning - wait, I said that last night. Well, maybe it will be true this time. Either way I don't live in a flood zone so I'm staying.
ETA: The IR now shows - I think - that has reached the latitude that is was expected to be at in 12 hours... which is a definate northward movement, if that's true. When is next recon due?
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
Edited by Hugh (Sat Aug 27 2005 11:24 PM)
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VG
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#100 Published Friday August 27, 2005 at 7:00 pm EDT
http://www.kn4lf.com/flwx1.htm
Looking at latest satellite imagery CAT 3 is continuing to undergo an eyewall reformation cycle and has not strengthened in quite a while. She also appears to have become stationary or maybe is drifting slightly north of west or 280 deg. at 2-3 mph but it could be a trochoidal wobble.
I see no reason to change my landfall forecast that has been in effect since Friday evening, of between Mobile, AL and Fort Walton Beach, FL with a bulls eye on Gulf Breeze, FL on Monday 08/29/05.
I still think the easier forecast of the two is intensity. With very warm Gulf Of Mexico water temperature including the loop current ahead and as very little wind shear is forecasted, could easily reach a strong CAT 4 before landfall. But she could weaken back to a CAT 3 after leaving the loop current and also due to increased wind shear, prior to landfall, much like CAT 4 Opal did in 1995.
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Take Care,
Thomas F. Giella
Retired Meteorologist & Space Plasma Physicist
Plant City, FL, USA
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B.C.Francis
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I was checking water temps around the possible landfall area and StationMRSL 1 Marsh Island at 29.44 N 92.06W had 93.6 degrees at 4:00 PM....Thats some warm water up there, and can that only help stay a powerful storm upon arrival on that coastline.....Weatherchef
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Baudelaire
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Quote:
Quote:
I live in the panhandle- Fort Walton/Destin/Niceville area. Should we be worried? Having dealt with and within just the past year I know what this is all about, but it's hard making a call on staying or leaving when it's not currently predicted to hit us head on. What do you guys think? Stay/Leave/Wait?
I live in the same area and I never leave, but if you live in a flood zone, leave. Even if the current forecast holds - which I do not believe it will based upon the apparent northward motion that others are now seeing too I think - FWB will get surge that will likely breach Hwy 98 yet again, and maybe some heavy rain too. I'm not expecting strong winds (maybe 20-30 mph) if the landfall is N.O. or west, but that could change rapidly.
We should have a better idea tomorrow morning - wait, I said that last night. Well, maybe it will be true this time. Either way I don't live in a flood zone so I'm staying.
Thankyou both for your replies. I don't live in a flood zone either and we have been incredibly lucky with damage from and . We had many limbs down but that was it. No roof damage, nothing. We left with both and and I really don't want to go through that again. My only concern is if turns, hits the area directly at category 5. I don't know if my family could handle that. It would be terrifying. So for now we'll just wait until tommorow and if we have to, we'll get out.
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Hugh
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Quote:
Thankyou both for your replies. I don't live in a flood zone either and we have been incredibly lucky with damage from and . We had many limbs down but that was it. No roof damage, nothing. We left with both and and I really don't want to go through that again. My only concern is if turns, hits the area directly at category 5. I don't know if my family could handle that. It would be terrifying. So for now we'll just wait until tommorow and if we have to, we'll get out.
If strengths overnight and heads toward the FWB/Destin area... well, I don't want to think about that possibility.
One thing I just thought of: I wasn't alive in 1969, but as I understand it, people in the FWB area went to bed believing that Camille was headed toward them. Then in the morning the storm had turned toward the Mississippi coast. Hurricane Opal in 1995 was headed for a direct hit on New Orleans when I went to bed in Pensacola (I was in school at UWF at the time) - woke up and found out we were under a hurricane warning and evacuated that afternoon to Val-P, and still got slammed. Storms have a tendancy to change direction without warning.
Update: Pressure back down to 944. Here's the recon report:
URNT12 KNHC 272257
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 27/22:44:30Z
B. 24 deg 49 min N
085 deg 36 min W
C. 700 mb 2604 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 287 deg 083 kt
G. 207 deg 028 nm
H. EXTRAP 944 mb
I. 12 C/ 2745 m
J. 19 C/ 2746 m
K. 12 C/ NA
L. RAGGED
M. E12/40/30
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF306 WX12A 01 OB 12
MAX FL WIND 101 KT E QUAD 21:38:40 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 700 MB
RAGGED EYE STRUCTURE APPEARS TO BE CONSOLIDATING
24 deg 49 min, 85 deg 36 min now. At 5pm it was 24.6, 85.6. There are 60 minutes in a degree aren't there? So that equals 24. 816, 85.6. There is your northward motion, it appears. Someone feel free to correct me if I'm wrong.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
Edited by Hugh (Sat Aug 27 2005 11:35 PM)
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WeatherNLU
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Hugh........there's no doubt that appears to be some kind of shift a tad bit north. I just question whether it was a motion or a product of the ERWC. I'm leaning towards the latter. Then again, if it wants to turn north now, by all means go on !
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I survived Hurricane Katrina, but nothing I owned did!
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heynow
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I posted this earlier in another thread here, but this thread seems more appropriate for my comments:
I live in Abbeville, LA--about 120 miles west of New Orleans and 20 miles from the coast. Everyone around here is nervous. We had a direct hit from Lili in '02 and a semi-direct hit from Andrew in '92, so the memories are fresh. Like everyone that lives on the Gulf of Mexico, we are intently watching and hoping for the best and planning for the worst. The very worst thing would be for to hit New Orleans. Not only would New Orleans be destroyed, but Louisiana's economy would be immeasurably affected. And by extension, the rest of the country. New Orleans is a major port and a major pipeline of trade and commerce for the United States. You never want to wish the devastation that a hurricane wreaks on someone else, but collectively as a nation, we do not want it to hit New Orleans (although it is just a matter of time before New Orleans takes a direct hit). could be our worst nightmare.
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I've lived through Danny ('85), Juan ('85), Andrew ('92), Lili ('02), Rita ('05) and Gustav ('08).
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Hugh
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Hugh........there's no doubt that appears to be some kind of shift a tad bit north. I just question whether it was a motion or a product of the ERWC. I'm leaning towards the latter. Then again, if it wants to turn north now, by all means go on !
I agree, there is some question as to what caused the northward "jog" - whether it was a jog or a relocation. I *hope* you're right, but if the eye relocated to the north, it will potentially have at least some impact on the track I would expect - if nothing else than to account for the initial position. Not necessarily significant, but a disturbing turn of events.
Once again, I HOPE you're right.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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ralphfl
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Hugh........there's no doubt that appears to be some kind of shift a tad bit north. I just question whether it was a motion or a product of the ERWC. I'm leaning towards the latter. Then again, if it wants to turn north now, by all means go on !
Is there a 8pm? if so it will tell us
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Terra
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Wow.... I just got a freaky phone call. It was a recorded message from St. Tammany Parish President Kevin Davis. It requested evacuation of everyone in St. Tammany Parish south of I-12 by noon tomorrow. My mom talked to a friend of hers on the Parish Council and they commented that they were very concerned about all of the tornadoes that would spawn. Is there anyway one can know this in advance... I mean, shouldn't the threat of tornadoes be the same for all tropical systems and severe thunderstorms? They were also concerned about flooding, which is a logical concern for a lot of my Parish. I think I'm ok at ~24 feet elevation (if I recall).
Actually, I just put my address into terrafly.com and it spit out this info on my address:This point is at Latitude 30.383230, Longitude -90.060263, UTM Zone 15, Easting 782496, Northing 3364919 , Elevation 14 meters (46 feet +50 feet).... Can that really be??? I'm thinking the elevation map I once saw for my house was not this high...
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Terra Dassau Cahill
Edited by Terra (Sun Aug 28 2005 12:32 AM)
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Hugh
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Quote:
Quote:
Hugh........there's no doubt that appears to be some kind of shift a tad bit north. I just question whether it was a motion or a product of the ERWC. I'm leaning towards the latter. Then again, if it wants to turn north now, by all means go on !
Is there a 8pm? if so it will tell us
Only an advisory, not a forecast track. I'm looking for the Adv but it does not appear to be out yet.
ETA to Terra: 24 ft is not very high for a Cat 5.
ETA: is now officially moving WNW at 7pm per the 7pm CT intermediate advisory. This motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours. Pressure is 944, winds remain 115, but the expectation is that will be a Cat 4 tomorrow.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
Edited by Hugh (Sat Aug 27 2005 11:53 PM)
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Genesis
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I am in a surge zone (potentially, exposure to the SW, on the bay - not the gulf) and stayed for both and .
Dennis didn't even get much water in the yard. threatened to flood the house, but we were home and able to stop it. Another 3-4" of water rise and all our flooring would have been destroyed, along with quite a bit of wallboard damage. The Sawzall would have gotten a LOT of use in that instance.
A storm that comes in and hooks east right over us is the worst possible scenario, which is what we got with .
As of right now I don't see the movement that causes me to want out right now.
I believe the discussion of a northward movement is overblown. I just got done looking at the GOES 12 hour loops, VIS, IR and WV, and what I saw looked like the eyewall replacement cycle.
Here's the projected short-range US forecast maps. (http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx.shtml] Note the 24, 36 and 48 hour expected weather maps.
By 6:00 AM tomorrow the trough is eroding, and by noon it is lifting out. If that verifies, then does not go east, unless it gets underneath it, which would require that it get on an eastward path in the next 12 hours so that it can stay under the trough.
I don't see that happening.
At 48 hours, the ridge (more of a hill than a ridge, really  ) that is to the west is forecast to back west.
Between those two points you've got a weakness - a corridor - into which is heading.
This is what it appears the models are "seeing", and it looks good to me. There is some argument for a move to the west or east - but I believe these are small deviations, not large ones.
I'm boarded up but at this point not intending to leave. If I change my mind, it will be tomorrow late in the afternoon or evening, and will likely head east.
My "metric" is when marks north of 25 Latitude. The current projected path puts that happening at about midnight. We already got through the 4:00 CDT advisory without it happening, which was my "oh no, it may come right here" warning point. If its at or below 25N at the 10PM advisory, then that will increase my confidence in the projected paths the models are giving us. So long as we're seeing WNW - and not NW - by the AM I think we're far enough east here to get lots of rain and some wind, plus a moderate surge risk - but not the punishment we got with .
I expect that by the 11:00 AM advisory tomorrow we'll know if the underlying features on the board are verifying or not, and there will still be plenty of time to make final preparations and split if that's warranted.
So for now, I'm standing pat, as I don't see the players on the board that bring this beast east of the MS/AL state line.
Stay tuned, of course.... and take this for whatever you believe it worth - I can be just as wrong as anyone else, as came very close to being proved with dipping SW and nearly staying offshore Miami!
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ralphfl
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Quote:
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Hugh........there's no doubt that appears to be some kind of shift a tad bit north. I just question whether it was a motion or a product of the ERWC. I'm leaning towards the latter. Then again, if it wants to turn north now, by all means go on !
Is there a 8pm? if so it will tell us
Only an advisory, not a forecast track. I'm looking for the Adv but it does not appear to be out yet.
ETA to Terra: 24 ft is not very high for a Cat 5.
I know about the track change is at 11pm i was looking for the 8pm i dont see it yet.The 8pm can tell us what direction it is going so the speculation will stop which way its heading right now
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ralphfl
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...Dangerous Hurricane begins to move toward the
west-northwest...
A Hurricane Watch is in effect along the northern Gulf Coast from
Intracoastal City to the Alabama-Florida border.
West northwest as predicted by the
Katrina has begun to move toward the west-northwest near 7 mph.
This general motion should continue tonight and Sunday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph...with higher gusts.
Katrina is a category three hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
scale. Strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours...and
Katrina could become a category four hurricane later tonight or
Sunday.
Edited by ralphfl (Sat Aug 27 2005 11:53 PM)
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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You should be able to access online somewhere (check your state's FEMA site) the flood zone maps for your county (parish in LA), which you will be able to zoom down to your street address. It will tell you which zone you are in for evac as far as flooding.
Some mandatory evacs are not enforced (not enough manpower). If you don't evac, make sure you have lots of bottled drinking water, etc.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
Edited by Margie (Sat Aug 27 2005 11:53 PM)
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Terra
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Loc: Kingwood, Texas
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I don't understand these directions... W was classified as 0.1N, 0.2W from 2-5 and then WNW was classified as 0.2N, 0.3W.... Clearly the motion is more north than credit has been given. I'm telling you... the water vapor does not show me a storm going to NO. Even the VIS is starting to make it look east.
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Terra Dassau Cahill
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ralphfl
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I don't understand these directions... W was classified as 0.1N, 0.2W from 2-5 and then WNW was classified as 0.2N, 0.3W.... Clearly the motion is more north than credit has been given. I'm telling you... the water vapor does not show me a storm going to NO. Even the VIS is starting to make it look east.
Terra i dont see what you are talking about? i have looked and i see the center has went wnw in the last bit.The eye went through a repalcement maybe that is what you are seeing but im sure they know directions.
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pcola
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Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
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The motion on the takes into account the position over the last 6 hours (I believe) avoid making a mistake on wobbles that may happen over 3 hours. However, it is definately a NW motion. the question is when will it become a North motion? As forcast or earlier. I think this motion is a bit more north than the forcast but we need to wait and see.
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Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!
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