Baudelaire
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Quote:
warning to Destin, FL placed under a Hurricane Watch/TS Warning.
Yes but what does it mean? What do they want us to do? LOL - I am totally lost over this one.
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WindyWx
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Loc: Tallahassee, FL
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Couldn't agree more. Would expect a wait and see approach.
I have noticed the southwest to northeast streaks on the Atlantic Basin WV occurring in extreme southwest Georgia. And if you look closer you can see it even more dramatically over Louisianna.
Now for the Mets.... is that the trough? If so, wouldn't that start to indicate that what we are seeing is a more significant turn earlier - (also that it's a turn that will continue as the trough moves in). Therefore indicating a further east landfall?
Not saying this is happening... just asking if this is something that we "could" be seeing. 
Thoughts?
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"We've Got COWS!"
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Margie
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Loc: Twin Cities
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Katrina has grown quite large since yesterday. It appears that she has almost doubled in area.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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jr928
Weather Guru
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the size of the storm alone could be the reason to expand the watches, etc east. The storm grew immensely today and that will cause greater impact further east regardless of landfall. I think?
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MichaelA
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Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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There is also satellite analysis to fall back on.
Here is a buoy still reporting gusts to 76 MPH located 86 NM from the storm's center. Also click the Latest observations link at the top of the page.
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Michael
PWS
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
the size of the storm alone could be the reason to expand the watches, etc east. The storm grew immensely today and that will cause greater impact further east regardless of landfall. I think?
Agreed, and that may be the sole reason for extending the warning and puting the watch and t.s. warning up in Florida at this point in time. I would expect further changes at the 4am advisory package, too, if current intensification and movement trend continues. It's going to be a long day tomorrow, watching, waiting, and praying.
Pressure drop down to 939. Basically storm is now due south of FWB.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
Edited by Hugh (Sun Aug 28 2005 02:28 AM)
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Terra
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Loc: Kingwood, Texas
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It's going to be a long day tomorrow, watching, waiting, and praying.
... and evacuating... sigh... since I am now under mandatory evacuation order by noon tomorrow. I don't understand why St. Tammany Parish south of I-12 is under mandatory order, but Orleans Parish is still only suggested.
Edit... maybe it's because if you xtrap (where's my model when I need it!) the storm ends up hitting my Parish directly.... rather than the up from the south scenario. Better for NO, I guess, but not for me...
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Terra Dassau Cahill
Edited by Terra (Sun Aug 28 2005 02:33 AM)
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Kal
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Yes but what does it mean? What do they want us to do? LOL - I am totally lost over this one.
At this point Baudelaire there is no official guidance from Okaloosa County. According to the school board's website the county stood down from emergency mode sometime today. At last report this morning Hurlburt Field had opted not to evacuate aircraft. I'm a little concerned that any shift eastward could bring the fringes of the windfield over our way, and catch more than a few of us on the Panhandle off-guard. Time will tell I suppose.
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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At this point Baudelaire there is no official guidance from Okaloosa County. According to the school board's website the county stood down from emergency mode sometime today. At last report this morning Hurlburt Field had opted not to evacuate aircraft. I'm a little concerned that any shift eastward could bring the fringes of the windfield over our way, and catch more than a few of us on the Panhandle off-guard. Time will tell I suppose.
Hurlburt website says HurriCon 3 declared yesterday I think, no update beyodn that. Eglin at HurriCon 4 still as of last update. I didn't know Okaloosa EOC every got activated - thought that usually did not happen until watch/warning was posted. Since one now HAS been posted, EOC may be activated tomorrow at least partially. I'm MORE than a little concerned that any shift eastward could bring more than just fringes of the windfield over our way. Having said that, it may not continue this way at all - too early to say.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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The Watch area has been extended east ward due to adding a northward component to her movement. ( In other words she began to turn slightly toward the NW )
The latest winds that I'm seeing from recon indicate no change in the Max sustained wind. At This Time!
They eye is down to 30nm diameter and the pressure has dropped to 939mb based on the latest fix.
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lunkerhunter
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Saint Augustine, FL
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VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 28/01:48:30Z
B. 24 deg 56 min N
086 deg 12 min W
C. 700 mb 2572 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 045 deg 104 kt
G. 320 deg 030 nm
H. 939 mb
I. 10 C/ 3047 m
J. 18 C/ 3045 m
K. 15 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C30
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF300 1512A OB 09
MAX FL WIND 110 KT NE QUAD 00:18:10 Z
EYEWALL STILL SOMEWHAT RAGGED
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Matthew '16, Hermine '16, Colin '16, Bonnie '10, Fay '08, Wilma, '05, Katrina '05, Jeanne '04, Frances '04, Charley '04 in FTM (drove behind it), Bertha '96, Bob '91, The Blizzard of '78 in NH
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jr928
Weather Guru
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I sure wish we could get a comprehensive met post tonight. Looking at the trough and the current path it is hard to imagine it won't turn and hit the al coast again. but I suppose there are other factors they know of that I'm unaware. This time of year these troughs weaken significantly around the Ark area and dive off and if that happens , I suppose it would stay w and then nw. my eyes look through history unfortunately and keep making me look at gulf shores.
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jr928
Weather Guru
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what are your thought on the hatties.... area? how's flow tonight?
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Due to the amount of post being generated and the seriousness of the current situation.
Please do not use the quotes. They take up entirely too much room. If you have a question about the origin of the post...Please PM the member that posted it. Thanks At this time there are 541 people viewing the site. 0239Z~danielw
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Bev
Weather Guru
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Loc: Port Charlotte, FL and Abaco, ...
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Quote:
Quote:
It's going to be a long day tomorrow, watching, waiting, and praying.
... and evacuating... sigh... since I am now under mandatory evacuation order by noon tomorrow. I don't understand why St. Tammany Parish south of I-12 is under mandatory order, but Orleans Parish is still only suggested.
I recently read some of the scientific papers written on the difficulties of evacuating Louisiana. It was interesting and somewhat frightening.
They implement incremental mandatory evacuations in order to allow as many people out as possible without causing gridlock. i.e. Mandatory for this area causes x number of cars on x number of roads. Those should be lessening within x hours, so implement next mandatory. So on and so forth. The problem is that in order to evacuate New Orleans successfully it requires 72 hours, which at this point, we don't have.
No easy answers. Should officials call early and often for evacuation when a storm has even a small chance of hitting within 72 hours and risk the "crying wolf" reaction to creep into the populace' mindset or should they wait until 48 hours as they have in this instance and risk losing some who will be unable to escape?
-Bev
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Twin Cities
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vortex
Ok this is what I expected to see about 90 min ago.
I guess it is taking longer for the eyewall to form but now it is no longer eliptical and the appearance is improving.
There are winds I expected to see, and we're now just below 940mb.
Thanks dw!
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
Edited by Margie (Sun Aug 28 2005 02:52 AM)
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MrSpock
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I hadn't seen anything in a few hours, but looking at the sat pics, it looks clear that the storm is to the right of the forecast point using the CIMSS link. If it's going to be this strong anyway, it would be nice to have a clear eye to track. It is also striking how much this storm has grown in size. Earlier I posted that I felt this would stay east of the Mississippi, and I think this track slightly to the right increases that possibility. Eventually this pressure drop is going to have to wind up the winds. I guess I should check, but one possibility is that maybe surrounding pressures are lower than normal.
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Hugh
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Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Yes, the surrounding pressures earlier were lower than "normal" - someone mentioned that. Still, 939 seems very low for a cat 3 storm, and a "minimal" cat 3 storm at that.
ETA: 10pm CT package. Forecast changed by .1 of a degree to the east I think, if at all. Intensity remains 115 MPH, forecast is basically identical. Storm moving at 290 degrees now at 6kts, expected to turn to the NW tomorrow. Landfall projected intensity near 125 knots. Discussion indicates the difficulty in intensity forecasting with regard to .
Weather Underground map shows landfall at New Orleans., between Sunday and Monday, which is the current global consensus, although I still believe that is too far west.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
Edited by Hugh (Sun Aug 28 2005 02:53 AM)
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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recon on leg.... inbound had MF104 and on outbound had MF102 ....first time i think in two quads... winds over 100mph at flight level..... is doing better... still ragged eyewall though
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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Colleen A.
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Loc: Florida
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Yes, you're right...and the may be giving a hint to the people in Destin to get their act together. TS watches/warnings would be necessary because they will be on the east side of the storm.
I wish this storm would speed up like did...this must be absolute torture for those in her path.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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