Terra
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 286
Loc: Kingwood, Texas
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Quote:
I wish this storm would speed up like did...this must be absolute torture for those in her path.
I think the slower it goes the less we (southern LA) will be in its direct path. I'd rather slow motion that turns away from a direct hit, then fast motion that continues right at us. No offense to anyone east of me, of course.
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Terra Dassau Cahill
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WindyWx
Registered User
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Posts: 3
Loc: Tallahassee, FL
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Quote:
I sure wish we could get a comprehensive met post tonight. Looking at the trough and the current path it is hard to imagine it won't turn and hit the al coast again. but I suppose there are other factors they know of that I'm unaware. This time of year these troughs weaken significantly around the Ark area and dive off and if that happens , I suppose it would stay w and then nw. my eyes look through history unfortunately and keep making me look at gulf shores.
will be interesting to watch for any sign of further shifts to the right of the current 305 degree heading 
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"We've Got COWS!"
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lunkerhunter
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 248
Loc: Saint Augustine, FL
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Post deleted by danielw
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Loc: South Florida
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She's so big. Amazing to watch spin. With all the models in agreement they have to take action in evacuations. And, truth is... many people wait.. make a plan A and then a plan B and how far inland can you go? So much depends on so much. If she hits left or right... angle she comes in.. either way the storm surge is going to be immense (as data already shows) as there is no where else for all of that water to go. And, remember after there was a town flooded far from landfall.. just the way the water fills up and hits the shoreline there makes a big difference.
Then again.. Key West had tremendous flooding from and they weren't expecting much so.. even though it's hard to not think on exact landfall point.. with so many low lying areas both east and west of New Orleans.. it's going to be a mess.
Miami-Dade is still a mess and Key West and the lower Keys are pretty bad.
A really hard one for the forecasters to have to work with as so far she has tended to do her own thing.
Bobbi.. much prayers and much luck and prepare all you can
Run from the Water, Hide from the Wind.. good saying to remember
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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Sportsfreak1989s
Registered User
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Loc: Lafayette, Louisiana
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I have one question to ask. I live in the Lafayette, LA area and was wondering if there would be any chance of taking some type of a different track and come our way. There are two models up on the latest advisory that are taking it into a near-by Parish which would still be devastating. So I guess to sum it all up, can come up through Intracoastal City and into Lafayette Parish or a near-by parish?
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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In the last couple of frames the eye has started to become well defined:
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html
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Stevie D
Registered User
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Just went to visit the I-10 US HWY 49 Interchange in Gulfport. East bound traffic was heavy, comparable to the 4th of July Weekend traffic, but moving at 70+. Traffic Northbound on 49 was moving fairly well, comparable to 5PM Friday afternoon traffic flow, but no trucks, boats or RV's in the traffic.
For every body that leaving St. Tammany Parish, come on over, the traffic is fine.
Me? I am staying. House is 26 ft above sea level, business is 35 ft above sea level, and both are 6 miles inland. Gosh darn, the business must be on the equivilent of a Mississippi mountain.
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The glancing blows of Betsy and Andrew, direct hits from Frederick, Elaina, Georges .... and the bad babe of Hurricanes ... Camille 1969 ... I spent the night 50 yards north of the RR tracks, and less than 1/2 mile from the beach.
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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I just went to the Okaloosa County website. EOC has apparently either just been activated, or will soon be - the site is autoforwarding to the EOC site which it was not doing between the TS warning was posted. The only notice is that county offices and schools will be open Monday, and that there are no closures and no shelters open.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Twin Cities
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The 10pm discussion mentioned the sat features we have been seeing this evening:
"the wind field is expanding...The satellite presentation...has been changing from a coil to a ring of very deep convection throughout the evening"
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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Terra
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 286
Loc: Kingwood, Texas
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I especially liked the comment "FANCY WORDS FOR A WARM OCEAN" personally. Looks like the track was shifted ever so slightly east? Or, am I hallucinating... nah... neither, it just changed direction slightly once it hit LA (in the same place). Goodnight... see yall around 5AM... hoping for the best...
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Terra Dassau Cahill
Edited by Terra (Sun Aug 28 2005 03:03 AM)
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Loc: Florida
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You really need to listen to what your local mets are saying and heed any evacuation orders. I live 40 miles inland from Tampa and hit the southeastern part of this county --- and Orlando -- really hard. Same thing with and Jeanne.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Katrina this evening is beginning to once again look like a monster on the IR and WV imagery - not that it didn't look like a monster before but it's REALLY looking like a MONSTER now. When a hurricane IR signature resembles a doughnut it's time to get out of the way. I would be surprised if the next recon does not find a pressure in the 920-930 range and winds in excess of 130mph. But has surprised me so many times so far...
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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Kal
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: Space Coast
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Earlier a few folks were asking about storm preps in Okaloosa County, FL. According to the latest Battle Staff Directive from the 16th Special Operations Wing at Hurlburt Field, they are currently processing cargo and personnel for a possible aircraft evacuation. Key personnel are to respond within 1 hour of (any) notification. The next Battlestaff briefing is now scheduled for 28 Aug 05 at 0700L. There is no scheduled evacuation at this time.
No evac, but Hurlburt Field is definitely taking notice.
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VG
Verified CFHC User
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Loc: Tampa Bay, FL
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#101 Published Friday August 27, 2005 at 11:15 pm EDT
http://www.kn4lf.com/flwx1.htm
At the 11:00 pm EDT advisory CAT 3 has a sustained wind of 115 mph, is at position 25.0 deg. N 86.2 deg. W, with a minimum barometric pressure of 27.73" and is currently on a WNW heading or 290 degrees at a speed of 7 mph. But looking at latest satellite imagery she appears to be on a 300 deg. Also is continuing to undergo an eyewall reformation cycle and has not strengthened in quite a while.
I continue to see no reason to change my landfall forecast that has been in effect since Friday evening, of between Mobile, AL and Fort Walton Beach, FL with a bulls eye on Gulf Breeze, FL on Monday 08/29/05.
I still think the easier forecast of the two is intensity. With very warm Gulf Of Mexico water temperature including the loop current ahead and as very little wind shear is forecasted, could easily reach a strong CAT 4 before landfall. But she could weaken back to a CAT 3 after leaving the loop current and also due to increased wind shear, prior to landfall, much like CAT 4 Opal did in 1995.
By the way it strikes me as kind of odd that the /TPC has extended a tropical storm warning eastward to Destin, FL well east of the forecast track error cone!
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Take Care,
Thomas F. Giella
Retired Meteorologist & Space Plasma Physicist
Plant City, FL, USA
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gavsie
Verified CFHC User
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Loc: Seminole Fl
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Heres my thought, I think she will be east of the track predicted. She is moving awful slow and that alows for her to turn sooner than they thought. I am just wondering what effects we here in Tampa may feel? As of right now its just breezy, no biggie. She is a monster of a storm. Big girl. I really hope all the people told to go, leave. Not worth staying for. :?:
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Myles
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: SW FL
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Wow, is looking very impressive now. Almost as good as when Emily was at her strongest with 150 mph winds. Take a look here and scroll down until you see the animated infrared loops and you'll see what I mean. If this monster doesnt go through another before landfall it very well could be a cat 5, because unlike waters where and went through before landfall, the gulf is still pretty deep as long as doesnt curve too far northward. With deep waters that only get hotter the closer you get to the coast, this thing is going to wreak some havoc.
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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I'm surprised that Eglin has not gone to Hurricane Condition 3. Hurlburt did last night or this morning.
I'd expect Hurlburt to go to HC 2 tomorrow, though - maybe Eglin is far enough away that it won't have the impact that Hurlburt will. That was the case with .
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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lunkerhunter
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 248
Loc: Saint Augustine, FL
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"By the way it strikes me as kind of odd that the /TPC has extended a tropical storm warning eastward to Destin, FL well east of the forecast track error cone!"
Not really. Tropical storm force winds extend 160 miles out. If struck on the East edge of the cone that's about the same distance to Destin.
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jr928
Weather Guru
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Posts: 101
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all posts from florida feel like it will turn east and hit florida. That's just history speaking to you. watch the current situation, it ain't turning east but n, nw. big difference
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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As big as she is (and I'm not sure if she is as big as Georges was) if she hits further east, Tampa will get more of the outer bands like we experienced with Georges. I am also wondering if her size will have any effect on her movement. I *thought* that larger storms usually like to move more poleward --- toward the north. I do not know if that is actually a fact, but it's been mentioned many times here and on other forums. She just has so much water to work with and at the slow pace she is going, I believe she is only going to get larger. I am not usually in disagreement with the and I am not saying that I am, but at this point I think there is still a good possibility that the track will shift east...how much? I have no idea. I do know that MSNBC (only one station) has said that this forecast is not set in stone because of the slow movement. I wanted to email him and say, "NO DUH!"
If you wake up tomorrow morning and noticing it starting to get breezier, you'll know. 
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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