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Non-Tropical Lows out at sea may acquire subtropical or tropical characteristics this week
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 38 (Dorian) , Major: 369 (Michael) Florida - Any: 369 (Michael) Major: 369 (Michael)
41.0N 51.4W
Wind: 40MPH
Pres: 1004mb
E at 23 mph
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13.2N 20.2W
Wind: 35MPH
Pres: 1006mb
Nw at 8 mph
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Archives 2000s >> 2006 Forecast Lounge

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Senior Storm Chaser

Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
SHIPS model
      #51403 - Sun Aug 28 2005 09:49 AM


What do you think the odds are that the track might shift East?? 48hrs seems a little stretched for Cat V winds... I would think that it would go under Cat V strength within an hour or two (of course depending on how strong it is when it comes ashore).

I don't think the official forecast will shift east of the AL/MS line, but it could shift a bit east to Gulfport/Biloxi - and even a 10 mile shift in the landfall would be significant in terms of the complete destruction - The cone is what people need to focus on, definately - widespread significant damage is certain, but whereeever the eye crosses and within 10 miles to the east could simply cease to exist. If that shifts even 10-20 miles east or west, it's significant to those people in that 10-20 miles. It's also unpredictable which is why EVERYONE needs to GET OUT if you're in the cone near the coast.


Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)

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