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Tropical Storm Imelda forms from TD#11 near the Texas Coast TS Warning has been issued for the coast of Texas from Sargent to Port Bolivar.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 11 (Dorian) , Major: 342 (Michael) Florida - Any: 342 (Michael) Major: 342 (Michael)
31.0N 72.3W
Wind: 105MPH
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Ene at 12 mph
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13.4N 45.6W
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29.3N 95.3W
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Archives 2000s >> 2006 Forecast Lounge

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ralphfl
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 435
Category 5 Katrina Winds to 175MPH
      #51584 - Sun Aug 28 2005 03:33 PM

Hurricanes rarely sustain such extreme winds for much time. However we see
no obvious large-scale effects to cause a substantial weakening the
system...and it is expected that the hurricane will be of category
4 or 5 intensity when it reaches the coast.

Im still praying and my thought on landfall is bumped up to 145 from 130 which is a cat 3 i still dont think this will hit as a 5 but that is just my thinking from storms tht get this strong.They tend to cycle down.That and the fact the shear is now not going to be as bad as was projected i thinbk will keep it a 4.

Now don't go by what i am thinking go by the NHC this is just what i have been thinking since yesterday.


And this cane has not turned north yet and maybe IMO this will hit farther west of N.O. far enough to not devestate the city.Anyone see the north turn coming?? i see nothing stoping this from the NW motion it is on now.

Edited by ralphfl (Sun Aug 28 2005 03:39 PM)


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
Re: Category 5 Katrina Winds to 175MPH [Re: ralphfl]
      #51611 - Sun Aug 28 2005 04:40 PM

well, i don't think it'll hit quite as strong as it is, either. but the thing is, this isn't a small hurricane where the concentric eyewall cycles are in play. Katrina's appearance is annular.. in that it has a large eye and single convective ring. usually these don't fluctuate or cycle, but slowly spin down. thing is, the environmental conditions aren't forecast to deteriorate.. if anything the waters along its terminal track are slightly warmer.. than they were out in the central gulf.
it may spin down to a 4, but it'll have to start soon... Ivan was a similar case and it took two days to get from a five to a strong 3 and there was cooler water and some shear coming into play. i'm not saying that something similar won't happen.. it should just start happening too late to make much of a difference.
landfall intensity will probably be 130-140kt.
HF 2040z28august


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reasonmclucus
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 17
Loc: Kansas
Re: Category 5 Katrina Winds to 175MPH [Re: HanKFranK]
      #51628 - Sun Aug 28 2005 05:17 PM

The images they were just showing on Fox, I believe they are false color images of clouds rather than radar, show a substantial air movement south from western Louisiana to the west which could influence Katrina to curve more to the north. and the eye seems to be doing so and might cause her to shift course to the east earlier. The warming of the surface waters began on the coast itself which means she is going to continue to move into warmer waters rather than into cooler waters.

If the wind speed continues to increase, even the drop caused by hitting land might not be enough to drop her into a category 4 immediately.

--------------------
Almost only counts in horseshoes, hand grenades and hurricanes.


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