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Archives >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3888
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Tropical Storm Lee Forms, No Threat to Land
      #52913 - Wed Aug 31 2005 10:48 AM

Earlier today, Tropical Depression 13 re-formed in the Atlantic. This afternoon, it became Tropical Storm Lee -- the season's 12th named storm -- but is generally projected to move out to sea and not intensify all that much.

The wave that almost became Tropical Depression 14 yesterday, referred to as 91L is also moving out to sea. Nothing of immediate concern to land areas.

A new wave referred to as 92L out in the far eastern Atlantic will also have to be watched over the next week.

The situation in Louisana, Mississippi, and Alabama continues to come to light, discussion on this is allowed here, but please use the disaster forum for information about specific areas You do not have to register to post in the disaster forum.

Discussion of other issues relating to Katrina (outside of the immediately affected area) like gas prices, the crazy gas lines, etc can be found here.

Event Related Links
General Links
Color Sat of Gulf
RAMSDIS high speed visible Floater of Storms

Graphic showing elevations of New Orleans

Emergency Management/County info
Gulf Coast Storm Alert Network
FloridaDisaster.org - Florida Emergency Management
Mississippi Emer. Management
State of Florida Division of Emergency Management/floridadisaster.org
Louisiana Emergency Management

Video/Audio Links
NOAA Weather Radio out of New Orleans
Hurricane City - Live Audio and Video
HurricaneTrack/Mark Sudduth HIRT Team

Television/Radio
WWL TV 4 (CBS Affiliate in New Orleans) - KHOU is streaming WWL TV as well HERE
ABC 26 TV (ABC Affiliate in New Orleans)
WDSU Channel 6 (NBC Affiliate New Orleans)
Fox 8 (New Orleans)
WTIX 690 News Radio
WWL 870 News Radio
WTOK 11 / Missippii Alabama ABC Affiliate -- Jason Kelly is assisting Operations Here
Hurricane Now - Video reports from former CNN hurrican reporter Jeff Flock
Weathervine.com
Joseph Johnston's Mobile Bay Webcam
WKRG 5 in Mobile/Pensacola
WPMI Channel 15 from Mobile

Other
NOLA - Everything New Orleans
South Mississippi Sun Herald
Al.com - everything Alabama - Katrina Photos
AP and Reuters Photos from Katrina areas (Continually updated)
A few employees of DirectNic in the a Data Center still working on a diesel generator in central Business district are feeding out updates from downtown.[/url - [url=http://194.97.144.25/NewOrleans]Streaming Video from downtown New Orelans
Continual News update text from WWLTV In New Orleans
-- Looking for more Video/Audio links for the approach areas, please let us know if you have any links/information!

Lee

Animated model plots of T.S. Lee

Invest 91L


Invest 92L


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VolusiaMike
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 63
Loc: Ormond Beach, FL
Presidental Visit [Re: MikeC]
      #52923 - Wed Aug 31 2005 11:02 AM

Carrying over a conversation from the previous board, someone mentioned that the President should visit as soon as possible.

The security concerns for a visitation by the President is something that the impacted area certainly does not need right now. It will take resources away from the Search and Rescue efforts that are so important right now! Anywhere the President visits will require a full shut-down of the area that will require a tremendous number of police officers to handle. Additionally, you have to secure any area that he plans to visit, or even may visit hours before the appearence.

Nothing against the President, but IMHO, he should stay in Washington and let the authorities handle the situation. As a last resort, do a fly over with no stops in the impacted areas.

Michael


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3888
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: Presidental Visit [Re: VolusiaMike]
      #52930 - Wed Aug 31 2005 11:15 AM

Here is the a google earth overlay of flooding for those that have it.

I'm mirroring it here (if you have google earth)

The source of this was This link

You can get google earth here
(Note: Google earth requires a relatively new machine with a 3d graphics card)


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nl
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 207
Loc: nsb,fl
Re: Presidental Visit [Re: VolusiaMike]
      #52931 - Wed Aug 31 2005 11:16 AM

:?: what is gonna be the reaction of the people on those bridges who cant get in the superdome and find out that the buses are only for the people in the superdome. i think we will have a major riot on our hands if they find out about the people in the dome. what are all the people that are out on these streets gonna go? and they just mentioned more rain is on the way there.

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Tropical Depression 13 Regenerates, No Threat to Land [Re: MikeC]
      #52932 - Wed Aug 31 2005 11:20 AM

From the previous thread:

Remember that political opinion or comment is really not appropriate on this site.

Use the Disaster Forum for specific information or questions.

Finally, please try to eliminate one-liners - CFHC is not a chat room, it is a Forum-oriented site.

Thanks for your help.
ED


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zmdz01
Weather Watcher


Reged: Wed
Posts: 31
Loc: Simi Valley, CA
Storm Surge [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #52937 - Wed Aug 31 2005 11:57 AM

Mets/Mods:

I have a question about storm surge from Hurricane Katrina. Was the storm surge above the forcasted height? I'm thinkin that the storm surge was higher than predicted because of the surge's momentum from the time that Katrina was a Cat 5 storm. I realize that the height of the storm surge is related to wind speed and the coastal geography. I'm wondering if the surge was under estimated by citizens because it was "only" a Cat 4 storm hours before landfall, when in reality, the storm surge height was "lagging" behind the sustained wind speed due to the momentum of the storm surge.

If you understood my babble, you're better than most people. I know what I'm trying to say, but it doesn't always come out clearly.

Marcus


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VandyBrad
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 80
Loc: Bryan, TX 30.65N 96.30W
Re: Storm Surge [Re: zmdz01]
      #52940 - Wed Aug 31 2005 12:30 PM

I think your explanation is likely correct. It seems scientifically sound that momentum would carry the water some time before the level matched what we would typically call a Cat 4 surge. This coupled with the natural funneling effect provided by coastal features like Mobile Bay likely helped to cause a surge higher than what the lay person would have expected. I imagine though that the experts new quite well how much surge was possible and tried to spread the word the best they could. However, it never fails that people think they can ride these things out.

--------------------
Brad Shumbera


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tpratch
Moderator


Reged: Fri
Posts: 337
Loc: Maryland
Re: Storm Surge [Re: zmdz01]
      #52941 - Wed Aug 31 2005 12:31 PM

The surge that builds up with large storms heading in the same general direction, tends not to dissipate very quickly. The drop to Cat 4 may have stopped building that surge, but it most certainly did nothing to diminish what had already formed in the prior 36 hours.

You'll probably get a more lengthy exposition from the mets, but that's the short of it As for what was expected, I can't speak eloquently about what other people think, but I'm pretty sure the mets never backed down from 20+ foot estimates of surge.


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: Storm Surge [Re: tpratch]
      #52942 - Wed Aug 31 2005 12:34 PM

you are correct...pretty much the same thing happened last year with Ivan...cat iv or v storm surge, even though Ivan was "only" a cat iii at landfall...when these huge monsters spin up, they push their surge well ahead of them...this is why also, Charley's surge was really only that of about a cat ii, even though he landfalled as a iv...didn't have enough time to spin up a huge surge and was a relatively compact little cane (albeit a strong one)

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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bobbutts
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Mon
Posts: 71
Loc: New Hampshire
Re: Storm Surge [Re: zmdz01]
      #52943 - Wed Aug 31 2005 12:39 PM

I have the same question as zmdz01
It does appear at least to me that the surge is significantly delayed compared to the winds. During Charley the 13-18' surge that Saffir-Simpson says come with a cat 4 simply were not there. Probably more like a cat 2 6'-8' (although this is not based on any official data). And of course the surge delay going in the other direction with Katrina. Is it safe to say that generally the storm surge will reflect the strength and pressure of the storm some significant time before landfall rather than at landfall?


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
Re: Storm Surge [Re: bobbutts]
      #52946 - Wed Aug 31 2005 12:50 PM

storm surge is like a bubble created on the ocean surface where it wells up due to dramatically lower air pressures near the center of the storm. air pressure is a large determining factor in surge, and Katrina typically had a lower pressure than the winds supported. the pressure was around 920mb, which is a borderline 5, when it crossed the miss delta. when it reached the pearl river area, it was up to 930mb, still a solid category 4. forward speed of the hurricane also contributed to the surge height, as well as the large wind field, which contributed to the huge extent of coastline that was flooded. these factors working together created a surge uncommon in its height and extent along the coastline.
i honestly thought storm surge was done as the major killer in hurricanes. the last time an event like this, where a large number of people drowned by surge, was in 1969... camille. people were told that the ocean was coming up to get them. i don't know why someone would stay, with that prospect.
HF 1650z31august


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Big Red Machine
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 223
Loc: Polk City, FL
Re: Storm Surge [Re: bobbutts]
      #52947 - Wed Aug 31 2005 12:51 PM

Brett Farve just spoke on Fox News. I have gained a whole heck of a lot of respect for Brett. He was talking about the difficulties they were having as far inland as his home in Hattiesburg. Hopefully when those who still don't understand the gravity of the situation when they hear a guy like Brett say, "As bad as this was, the worst is yet to come," will realize the scope of this.

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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
parade of weenies [Re: HanKFranK]
      #52949 - Wed Aug 31 2005 12:55 PM

td 13's forecast track looks sensible. it's competing with a SFC low to its nw that will keep it from strengthening a great deal, but i do think it will get a bit stronger than forecast.
91L should be classified. it's got a well defined surface low that's generating winds normally within the criteria of a depression.. but because the convection is currently sheared they're withholding classifying it. yet another case of the NHC ignoring a tropical system due to wind shear. the forecast is for shear to slack off in the next day or so, so this will probably develop in the long run.
92L is way the hell out, but its prospects are more for it to get further west in the long run. the synoptic pattern in the atlantic is shifting, and whereas a large trough is getting 13 and 91L, there should be more ridging and an ultimately further west track for this system. it may develop over the next few days.
eyeballing the potential pattern pulse system near the east coast... it keeps showing up in models, only in a variety of forms. most have it as a suspicious weak low... and are split on whether to drags out to sea, drifts across florida, or just bumbles around off the east coast. dependent on how progressive upper air features are and exactly where/what tries to form, any of these scenarios is possible. shouldn't show up for a couple of days, and is a highly theoretical feature right now.
HF 1655z31august


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Lisa NC
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 102
Loc: North Carolina
Re: Presidental Visit [Re: MikeC]
      #52952 - Wed Aug 31 2005 01:05 PM

In one of the pictures, there are 68 school buses which are still in the city. Why didn't they drive bus filled with people out on Sat or Sunday. It's been said people didn't have means to leave, but here a so many buses that could have carried atleast 40 people per bus out.

Also Air force one was flying over NO a few minutes ago

--------------------
<img src="/hahn/images/graemlins/wink.gif" alt="" />


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native
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 148
Loc: SE Florida 26.31N 80.11W
Re: Presidental Visit [Re: MikeC]
      #52953 - Wed Aug 31 2005 01:07 PM

Mike - Thanks for sharing that. I downloaded Google Earth previously (when you had pointed it out in another forum) that overlay....there are no words to describe the image(s). I still have not fully digested the magnitude of Katrina's devistation.

Margie - Great news about your brother!

Great news about Rick and Frank and Steve ....just need to hear from Danny now.

Glad to see that 13 and almost 14 are fish spinners. Hopefully 92L will follow their lead.

Question to the mets/mods or anyone more "in the know" than me: on Skeeto's map of 92L there are only 4 of the 7 models shown...the NHC (that I can figure out why it's not there) but what's the story with the absence of the GFDL and UKMET?


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Katie
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 167
Loc: Winter Haven, FL
Re: Storm Surge [Re: tpratch]
      #52954 - Wed Aug 31 2005 01:07 PM

I am so lost as to where to post this right now...

For those of you who know Beaujolis (spelling) she is a poster on here...I just got off the phone with her:

She is okay. She lives in Kenner, LA and is up in Jackson, MS with family. She has been told that it could be months before she can go home and is planning on relocating to TX for the time being. She is scared and worried. But, she is okay (which is the most important thing). She sends her very best to any of the members who experienced Katrina and is thinking of everyone.

Katie


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: Storm Surge [Re: Katie]
      #52956 - Wed Aug 31 2005 01:11 PM

that's great news about beau...at least in terms of her being alive...being homeless is such a scary prospect facing so many people...

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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The Force 2005
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 299
Loc: Philadelphia
Re: Storm Surge [Re: LI Phil]
      #52957 - Wed Aug 31 2005 01:13 PM

Question: Storm Surge

If Katrina had winds over 145MPH upon landfall, what would be the speed of the storm surge that would later come ashore?


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tpratch
Moderator


Reged: Fri
Posts: 337
Loc: Maryland
Re: Presidental Visit [Re: Lisa NC]
      #52959 - Wed Aug 31 2005 01:16 PM

By the time the dome opened as a "last resort" shelter, it was far too late to bus anyone out.

Not to mention insurance issues, the fact that even 100 busses wouldn't have gotten a quarter of those ultimately headed for the Superdome out.

It's pretty easy to armchair quarterback what could've been done, but the fact remains, as late as the mandatory evac was, the NHC had NO in the cone for quite some time, and anyone living on a coastal state should know better than to not monitor the news when there's a named storm (or even better, to not ignore the news between June and November).

*EDIT

Storm surge moves ashore just forward of the eye at approximately the forward speed of the storm itself. Due to pressure gradients close to the eye, there tends to be a sudden build up of the most intense levels, but it's still more or less being "pushed" by the storm itself.

Edited by tpratch (Wed Aug 31 2005 01:17 PM)


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The Force 2005
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 299
Loc: Philadelphia
Re: Presidental Visit [Re: tpratch]
      #52961 - Wed Aug 31 2005 01:22 PM

Just in:

Air Force One Flying Over Disaster Areas


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