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Archives >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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tashina
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 13
Loc: Austin, TX
storm tracks [Re: The Force 2005]
      #52992 - Wed Aug 31 2005 02:33 PM

I have somewhat the same question as oil trader above. I having been reading this site with interest this season and have no meteorogical experience or training. I noticed that last season 2 hurricanes went into the Port St Lucie area - I had almost moved there that year and was glad I didn't!. I assume that was due to steering currents but I don't know how long conditions stay the same with the currents. Would New Orleans/Gulfport be more likely than normal to get a second hurricane that enters the gulf and if so, how long would that be added probability last?

Thanks for helping a beginner.


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Big Red Machine
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 223
Loc: Polk City, FL
Re: Jet Ski's [Re: Rick on boat in Mobile]
      #52993 - Wed Aug 31 2005 02:36 PM

True Rick, people really don't want to think about the sewage in the water. Betweeen the sewage, snakes, gators, fire ants, mosquitoes, corpses, blood, etc. in the water, the looters will certainly reap what they sow. I hope that it's a painful death for them.

CNN is finally telling the national audience that the death toll is likely in the thousands. I don't mean to be crass, but uhhh... duh. I think any of us could have told them that. It may not be a question of if it's hundreds or thousands, but thousands or tens of thousands. Once disease comes through, the violence caused by the storm, residual long term health effects, etc come into play, it certainly seems possible that it will be the latter. Remember. studies conducted before the storm were astronomical.


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The Force 2005
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 299
Loc: Philadelphia
Re: storm tracks [Re: tashina]
      #52994 - Wed Aug 31 2005 02:38 PM

Well, that all depends on the right conditions as for Front, Trough's, steering currents and a bunch of other factors that would put N.O in the path of another storm. Mother Nature will do what she wants, though the models were almost exact on their location, ie; being in the cone, so it is hard to say when or if another storm like Katrina, will ever hit N.O.

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BTfromAZ
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Tue
Posts: 75
Loc: San Francisco/Green Valley, AZ
Re: Tropical Depression 13 Regenerates, No Threat to Land [Re: MikeC]
      #52995 - Wed Aug 31 2005 02:45 PM

Came across this bit of info summarizing the status of the oil industry:

Quote:

about 1.4 million bpd of crude production -- about seven percent of domestic demand -- was still shut down and concerns about the lack of feedstock for refineries prompted the United States to offer to loan crude to companies to replace lost output.

The offer helped ease oil prices from record highs above $70, but U.S. crude still remained at a red-hot $69.70, down 11 cents.

Nine refineries with combined capacity of nearly 2 million bpd were shut down and four more were running at reduced rates. Three of the refineries in Louisiana are "under water," according to a U.S. senator.

Exxon Mobil said that restoring products pipeline and marine links, including Mississippi River traffic, was more important to it in boosting crude runs at its capacity-curbed Baton Rouge, Louisiana, refinery.




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Juls
Registered User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 3
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Jesafe in FL? [Re: Big Red Machine]
      #52996 - Wed Aug 31 2005 02:47 PM

I disagree that JAX would be safe from storms- especially with all that water.
Here is a site that happens to agree with that statistically. hurricanecity JAX faqs

I do not think that anywhere in FL or gulf coasts (incl MS, AL, LA, TX) are safe. Every year, every day conditions are different. MANY conditions determine where a storm goes and how intense it gets.

I would have thought I was far enough inland to be safe - watching the news makes you question that.

Let's at least pray no more storms this season make it into the GOM

--------------------
----------------------------------------------
David (79) Gordon (94) Erin (95) Gordon (00) Charley (04) Frances (04) Jeanne (04)


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Big Red Machine
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 223
Loc: Polk City, FL
Re: storm tracks [Re: The Force 2005]
      #52997 - Wed Aug 31 2005 02:47 PM

Did anyone hear the CEO of the largest EMS and ambulance company in Louisiana on CNN? According to him, hospitals are virtually being "taken over," their command center just had the generator stolen off of the back of it, they've had an ambulance turned over ( what satisfaction do these people get out of rioting?), he says that they have to somehow get 100 babies out of a hospital as it is too dangerous in the city (I assume the same one they attempted to loot last night) and they expect tonight to be even worse. He was pleading for help.

It's amazing how this scenario resembles life after a nuclear bomb blast in the book Alas, Babylon (set right here in Central FL). In the book, they raise the problem of junkies looking for a fix unable to get it wreaking havoc trying to find something. With the number of drug users in N.O., I would be frightened if I were a hospital worker. From the sound of the man during the interview he was frightened. According to him, the Guard troops and police in the city are expecting the ambulance company and hospitals to take care of themselves?

Edited by Big Red Machine (Wed Aug 31 2005 02:55 PM)


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Wingman51
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 126
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.41N 81.24W
Requested Help [Re: Big Red Machine]
      #52998 - Wed Aug 31 2005 02:48 PM

This has probably already been posted here but I'll trust the Mods to remove it if it has:

Red Cross Reps just came throug our office asking for assistance in 3 areas as follows:
1.) Cash Donation
2.) BLOOD MAJOR NEED
3.) Volunteers - report locally and each individual area (in disaster are and outside) will give you alist of volunteer opportunities.

Margie - - Glad to hear that all came out OK with your brother PTL


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BTfromAZ
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Tue
Posts: 75
Loc: San Francisco/Green Valley, AZ
Re: Requested Help [Re: Wingman51]
      #52999 - Wed Aug 31 2005 02:58 PM

Concerning blood donation: If you want to donate, you may want to wait a week or two. In disasters such as this, this is one of the first things most people think of doing and, as a consequence, a huge amount of blood gets donated in the first few days to a week. Then, those people can't donate again for some time. As a result, there is a huge supply of blood which expires at a single point in time and a limited supply of eligible donors a few weeks later. In several previous disasters (I'm think especially about the 1989 quake here in the Bay Area), much of the initially donated blood expired unused and had to be thrown out. Then there was a shortage.

As an MD, I pay attention to these matters.


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Wingman51
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 126
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.41N 81.24W
Re: Requested Help [Re: BTfromAZ]
      #53001 - Wed Aug 31 2005 03:05 PM

Thanks for that - - should have been more detailed - Red Cross is asking for sequenced donation for the next 21 to 28 days - so many people per day - just to avoid what you are talking about

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Anton Ross
Weather Watcher


Reged: Fri
Posts: 42
Loc: Downtown Beaufort Marina, SC
Levees [Re: The Force 2005]
      #53002 - Wed Aug 31 2005 03:06 PM

I can certainly understand Mayor Nagin's frustration about the Levees and Army Corps of Engineers. Corps doesn't have what they need (or DIDN'T) to do what has to be done, though. I know those guys (my wife is a certified civil engineer) and they really try to do what's best, even when they have their hands tied.

One thing that needs to be made clear about the situation New Orleans is facing is that it was completely expected. Earlier this year FEMA ranked the potential damage to New Orleans (in terms of flooding) as among the three likeliest, most castastrophic disasters facing this country. Turns out they were spot on.

Unfortunately, the reality is that in general, funding for Corps construction has been on a downward trend for the past several years. In 2001, the New Orleans district spent $147 million on construction projects. When fiscal year 2005 wraps up Sept. 30, the ACOE expects to have spent $82 million, a 44.2 percent reduction from 2001 expenditures. Unfunded projects include widening drainage canals, flood- proofing bridges and building pumping stations in Orleans and Jefferson parishes. The ACOE also wanted to build levees in unprotected areas on the West Bank, but couldn't because of budgetary restrictions.

The Southeast Louisiana Urban Flood Control Project, which was created after the May 1995 flood to improve drainage in Jefferson, Orleans and St. Tammany parishes has seen their budget drained from $36.5 million awarded in 2005 to $10.4 million suggested for next year by the House of Representatives and the president.

At this point, I think this is all moot, given the situation.

I feel incredible sorrow for the Mayor, and for the rest of that part of the Gulf. Tragedy and travesty.

/Anton

--------------------
"A man's ethical behavior should be based effectually on sympathy, education, and social ties; no religious basis is necessary.
-Albert Einstein


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
death toll [Re: Anton Ross]
      #53003 - Wed Aug 31 2005 03:16 PM

it's speculative, but unbelievable. the new orleans death toll is being estimated in the hundreds, possibly over a thousand. forget camille. we've seen nothing of this scale in human loss since the 1928 okeechobee hurricane.
HF 1916z31august


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JoeF
Registered User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 7
Loc: Tampa
Re: Levees [Re: Anton Ross]
      #53004 - Wed Aug 31 2005 03:20 PM

Longtime reader first time poster. I have held back an now want to respond to this situation. The Mayor of New Orleans was well aware that it takes approx. 72 hours to evacuate New Orleans. They were being told this storm was heading towards them before that time. An evacuation order was not ordered. Approx 40-48 hours out the NHC is begging him to evacuate. He still does not order the evacuation. 24 hours out the President tells him he needs to. An evacuation goes in place less than 24 hours before this storm comes in. That is unaccepatble to me. Yes people by common knowledge need to make educated decisions but I still cannot get this out of my mind. They have been warned for so long that this was gonna happen. It seems as if they have never even planned for this. I pray for the people that have lost loved ones and the ones like me that have still no word on loved ones. I think some heads need to roll on this one and hopefully some hard lessons have been learned.

Frustrated and concerned,
JoeF


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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 386
Loc: Port Orange, FL 29.11N 81.02W
Re: Levees [Re: JoeF]
      #53005 - Wed Aug 31 2005 03:23 PM

Can you tell us where you got that info please?

--------------------
Pam in Volusia County

According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6


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emackl
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 205
Loc: Indianapolis
Re: Levees [Re: Anton Ross]
      #53007 - Wed Aug 31 2005 03:26 PM

""I can certainly understand Mayor Nagin's frustration about the Levees and Army Corps of Engineers. Corps doesn't have what they need (or DIDN'T) to do what has to be done, though. I know those guys (my wife is a certified civil engineer) and they really try to do what's best, even when they have their hands tied."


Correct me if I'm wrong but I've heard that the MAIN levee breaks were not where the Corps did the work. What I've heard is the Corps area has some minor breaks but stood up well. Where the main breaks are is where the Corps were SUPPOSED to do the work but had the funding pulled and could not complete it. If I read your post correctly I think we are in aggreement. However, I've heard several times that the Corps are being wrongly blamed for something that they COULD have done right. Know what I mean?


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BTfromAZ
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Tue
Posts: 75
Loc: San Francisco/Green Valley, AZ
Re: death toll [Re: HanKFranK]
      #53008 - Wed Aug 31 2005 03:27 PM

HF: Tragically, I can't think why you call this death toll "unbelievable". I quite expected it and I think "over a thousand" may be conservative--try "thousands". Look at those houses in New Orleans as the helos fly over the rooftops. Consider that in every one of those attics may well be an exhausted, dehydrated senior with the sun beating down on that roof, no food, no water. Then consider all the houses that simply no longer exist in southern Mississippi and how many of them may have been occupied when they were "disappeared". When the water goes down and somebody checks those attics and they begin examining the debris in MS, I expect they will find many, many bodies.

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JoeF
Registered User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 7
Loc: Tampa
Re: Levees [Re: NewWatcher]
      #53009 - Wed Aug 31 2005 03:28 PM

It was stated all over the news and on this forum before the storm hit. I still don't understand why people continue to take up for the authorities in New Orleans. They have been warned for years that this would happened. They had a Cat 5 headng at them. I guess I am just used to the way they do things in Florida. Evacuations are ordered with appropiate time.

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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 386
Loc: Port Orange, FL 29.11N 81.02W
Re: Levees [Re: JoeF]
      #53010 - Wed Aug 31 2005 03:32 PM

I live in FL and I may be wrong, but I think the main reason we dont have
the deaths etc. is we havent had a Katrina...cept Andrew, which was horrible. People then didnt leave when ordered and even after last year
people wont leave next time either. I am not backing anyone, just wondered if this was something you knew or something you heard. I have
heard a lot of things, not always sure which ones to believe.
Lastly for me, it doesnt matter anymore what could or should have been
done so long as they do everything they can now for those who need it.
This was a "mother nature" tragedy that was gonna hit where it did, when it did, no matter whether we liked it or not.

--------------------
Pam in Volusia County

According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6


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emackl
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 205
Loc: Indianapolis
Re: Levees [Re: JoeF]
      #53011 - Wed Aug 31 2005 03:32 PM

Joe, I totally agree. I heard an interview with the Mayor before he ordered it. He said he wasn't going to because he couldn't enforce it! Well woopity big balls if you can't enforce it. At least go on the record doing the right thing. However, honestly the people that stayed would most likely have stayed anyway.

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BTfromAZ
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Tue
Posts: 75
Loc: San Francisco/Green Valley, AZ
Re: Levees [Re: JoeF]
      #53012 - Wed Aug 31 2005 03:33 PM

Joe, have you seen "Earthquake" or "Deep Impact" or any other "disaster" movie? They played this one completely by the script: Brilliant scientist(s) warn government leaders of the onrushing danger and that they "have to evacuate". Government leaders fear "mass panic" and hold off until the last minute, thereby creating the panic they feared. Disaster happens exactly as the scientist)s) predicted, killing huge numbers (shown being hit by falling debris, tidal waves, flood waters, whatever).

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3884
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Sat images [Re: BTfromAZ]
      #53013 - Wed Aug 31 2005 03:34 PM


High res satellite photos of mississippi/alabama hit areas

http://alt.ngs.noaa.gov/katrina/KATRINA0000.HTM


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