Anonymous
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Seems like the CV season is not over yet. There's Invest 94L on the wave SW of the CV. The gives it possibilities. And Africa is spitting some more...
cc
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HanKFranK
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lili hasnt moved much since last night. core looks pretty well defined this morning, even though recon is saying it has broadened. not sure what the storm is doing.
kyle actually driting nw in last couple of visible frames. convection has finally been disjoined from the rest of the storm. modeling does little with it or takes it slowly west.. then diverges.. most of the globals now turn it back east or northeast. guidance still takes it west, though. even takes it south. and though greatly weakened (think it is weaker than official)... nothing really kills kyle.
94L.. surprised another cv system is trying to go. sw shear is up ahead, probably enough to keep it from developing much.. and the ridge in that part of the basin is weakened.. will probably turn this one up well out to sea. if it gets west then it will have to forego development for quite some time.
HF 1742z28september
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Kevin
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About Kyle's track: I believe, for once, the tropical models can be trusted over the typically more "reliable" global models. How the hell can a storm turn NE with a strong ridge right atop of it? Looks like the globals are trying to prove that there is a new air physics rule...lol  .
If Kyle survives the shear, Florida had better look out. The synoptics with Andrew were similar, but I am an no way suggesting another Andrew. Just something to keep in mind.
Kevin
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joepub1
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Just a comment or two.
What 12Z model runs I have seen are fairly consistent with Lili. Most agree on a track up the southern coast of Cuba into the gulf. All also seem to show some kind of movement to her, which at the moment isn't really happening. It looks more like her eye is 'jumping' to the north. Last few hours the visible sat has shown a big blow up right on top of the 'eye', but the system as a whole hasn't really moved. Something tells me for the next couple of days she's going to show more convection during the overnight hours then during the day. My guess is in the open gulf by tuesday?
Kyle hangs on, even though he does look like he moved to NE the last couple of frames. Models are begining to connect his fate to two things: how strong the ridge above him will be(they tend to disagree on that) and where Lili goes(more agreement). They seem to want to say the farther west Lili makes landfall, the more of a threat he will be to FL. Those that want to take her NO-east tend to just about kill him off.
By the way Kevin, another thing to look for with Kyle is one of these CV storms developing, then turning north(passing him to the east) which might push him a little further to the SW. And another storm to compare him to might be Dora(64) who also hit FL going straight as an arrow west, coming from above the Bahama's.
Joe in JAX
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jlauderdal
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checkout the pressure on the system from the NE, the whole NE side is flat as a pancake..obviousely there is a ridge pushing him towards the SW...I think this system, assuming survival, scares south florida at least if not a direct hit..atmosphere gets richer within 36H and flow slows down under 10 which allows a nice spin. I still like October for a big wet system in southern florida. Its Ok..we know we can 20 inches(irene) in a 36 hr period. As far as wind goes..that is up to indivisuals and their preps..supplies, roof straps, shutters.
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Mary K.
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The Federal Government has determined that Hurricanes that make land Fall on the East, West, or Northern Florida Coastlines this year are considered to be not in the interest of National Security. Therefore all landfalls are being diverted to Mexico, Texas. Lousianna or The areas between Georgia and New York.And if you believe that, I have some prime real estate for sale 90 miles south of Key West. I understand that people living there believe in following the letter of the laws down there so there are no problems with civil rights protests or law suits regarding affirmative action .
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weather is all you can count on, good or bad.
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HanKFranK
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i heard kyle compared to Andrew above.. sorry, time for me to step on that idea. Andrew was a summer hurricane under a large, retrograding ridge, with a sharp upper trough backing behind it that kept the ridge from adding any northerly component until it stopped backing and turned Andrew in the gulf. right now we've got a stationary, pulsing ridge with a mean position near the southeast coast.. this doesnt compare synoptically to Andrew. if you want a comparison track, look no further than olga last nov/dec.. which was in a more extreme, late season version of a locked pulsing ridge pattern.
kyle is weakening for now and drifting wnw. assuming the forecasted shear lets up the storm should start pulling itself together early next week. interesting that the 12Z and ukmet are almost identical, and have cast aside the eastward turn.. kyle actually turns sw again after 72hr as a surface high builds down off the continent... and is edging into the bahamas and deepening.
for lili, globals continue the quasi stationary motion for a short while then have it moving just north of west.. clipping the yucatan and heading for tx/la. takes it off right away.. as it did with isidore consistently.. and is not to be trusted for forward motion. note that lili isnt strengthening right now.. perhaps getting some of the same shear as kyle, to a lesser degree.
94L is already moving wnw.. most globals turn it up near 40w and dont strengthen it much.. going to go with this idea. if this organizes it will probably be a weak fish spinner. it is still broad and the environment is not exceptionally favorable.. but passable i guess.
fairly good model agreement that we get another hurricane in the gulf this week... and another nearing the bahamas later on. should be a very interesting span.
HF 2059z28september
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Kevin
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Thanks for pointing that out Frank, proves that I can be fallable at times. I really should have realized that Andrew was in a summertime ridging pattern...and for some reason I made a bad connection. Thanks for squashing the idea, it was a bad one indeed. Olga, on the other hand, is pretty decent analog. Olga not only had shear, but she had dry air to contend with near the Bahamas as well. The situation with Kyle, in the long-run, may be much different. I remember Olga was in the GOM 4-5 days after it had dissipated.
Kyle does look like a "pancake" on his eastern side. No ventilation at all, Kyle is pretty sick right now. The only thing keeping him alive at this point would be the deep ball of convection---keeps going like an Energizer Battery. Kyle should be different from Olga in the end simply because Olga was in late November, this time around we're in late September. Big difference there in terms of shear values.
Kevin 
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Bruce
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Can someone tell me how many miles are in a degree. Ex 70 to 71? Thanks
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Frank J P
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Four years ago tonight Hurricane Georges pounded the MS coast, especially the Pascagoula MS area.... The strong Cat 2 storm put a 12 foot storm surge on the eastern coast of MS....
Latest models are in good agreement that take Lili on a very similar path to the track of Georges ... albeit just a little farther south and west... interesting to see if this develops....
If it does, expect a landfalling hurricane somewhere on the northern gulf coast... Providing of course it doesn't decided to take a couple of days vacation on the Yucatan again like Izzy ... I don't think this will happen and I think that the FL Keys are the prime target for Lili... fortunately for the Keys it should not be a hurricane until after it passes and enters the SE GOM.... should be another action packed week.... let the tracking begin...
Frank P
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Mary K.
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I am frankly betting on a race between Kyle and Lili to see who bites the dust first. They both look sick tonight. I have seen summer afternoon thunderstorms with better convection and signature on the satellites.
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weather is all you can count on, good or bad.
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joepub1
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I'm not real sure, but I thought it was something like 75 miles, roughly, per degree.
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tupac
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does lili have a chance of hitting in the same area izzy did last week? new orleans - destin?
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VolusiaMike
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60
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Ricreig
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In reply to:
Can someone tell me how many miles are in a degree. Ex 70 to 71? Thanks
Lets see....at the Equator, the circumferance of the earth is roughly 25,000, divided by 360 degrees = 69.444444444444444444444444444444 miles per degree. North and South and East-West, degrees latitude should be threfore about 70 miles at the Equator.... Now, as you go North or South from the Equator, the lines of Longitude get closer together such that at the north pole or south pole, they essentially merge to a dot. Thus, the East-West distance changes the further north or south you go, At 30 degrees North, the distance per degree decreases from about 69.4 miles per degree to around 60....
So, it depends on whether you are travelling North/South, or East-West, and your Latitude....
Just to confuse things, I was referring to Statute miles.... if you are talking Nautical miles, it is, I think 1 minute = 1 NM...at the equator.....Someone correct me if I'm too far off base....
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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Domino
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Mary I think I have to disagree, at least when it comes to Lili. She's looking pretty decent on the IR sat photos. Kyle, well, I do agree with him -- he looks like a sheered mess right now. Lili is reminding me a lot of Izzy in its early days. It doesn't look quite as pretty as Izzy did but its headed there I do believe.
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joepub1
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.....Someone correct me if I'm too far off base....
No, you on target. After seeing a difference of 15 miles, I thought I'd better check to find out why I seemed so far off. Ran into an answer much like yours, which of course means it depends where you are.
On average 1 nautical mile=1.15 miles=1852 meters=6067 feet.
On average that makes 69 miles per degree.
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Ricreig
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....Ran into an answer much like yours, which of course means it depends where you are.
Yup...however, I think for most of those of us who are worried about hurricanes, we are mostly concerned about latitudes from about 25 N to 35N, where a good rule of thumb would be 'about a mile' per minute of travel. It'll get you close unless you are doing precision calculations....then you have to really know your math to compensate for Latitude changes....
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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joepub1
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>>>No, you on target<<<<
Man I hate it when I type like that. Makes me wonder if I've really spoken english all these years. Still can't spell.
In defence of Lili and how she looks, the area she's sitting in would be murder on a fully developed hurricane. All the land that she's in the middle of is mostly pretty rough country and if she passed over western Cuba, it would more than likely be the end of her. If she continues a NW to WNW track, she could start to wind up.
Thought since were pasing the time with numbers I'd throw these out there:
Isidore ended with a total of 78 public advisories being issued, 41 full, and 37 of the tweeners.
Kyle has had 33, all full.
Lili has had 48, 29 full, and 19 tweeners. The in-between advisories are issued when watches are posted on any country or land mass.
As a matter of reference, Hurricane Floyd in 1999 had 67, 39 full, 28 tweeners.
Lili, since she's almost in the same spot Izzy was, and about in as much of a hurry, could break 100 before she's gone. I have no idea what hurricane holds the record.
Just passing the time........
Joe in JAX
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somebody
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where the hell is everyone this is borring lets talk about the storm where is everyone im ready to go
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