Bruce
Weather Guru
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Posts: 139
Loc: Palm Bay, Florida
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Hey somebody, what about that Kyle? Do you think it will become at cat 3 before making land fall?
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Stevenotloggedin
Unregistered
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11pm Discussion will be reissued for 'correction' as it states Lili has a shot to be a hurricane in the NE Gulf in 72 hours. They meant SE.
Steve
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tom5r
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 49
Loc: Islamorada, Florida
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And now she's up again and apparently getting stronger. Sustained winds at 50 and down to 994 mb. And heading west at the moment. Lil seems to be Izzy revisited, taking the same path and teasing us all to the max.
Where is everybody? Suffering from post Izzy syndrome? 
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57497479
Weather Master
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Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
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OK guys, What is going on here? This board is way to quite. I mean is Lili's forcast that cut and dry. Is there not any thing intersting enough that could happen with her forcast that is worth a discussion. Is there no troughs comming down the line to possibly give her a tour of the Northern Gulf and then race her off to the NE. Hey if I could I would give a forcast,( even if it is wrong) but since I don't know enough about this yet, I need food for thought from you guys.
WHERE IS EVERYONE?
Thoughts on Kyle would be nice also....
Toni
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TONI
All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism
My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3
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Mary K.
Weather Guru
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Posts: 166
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Lili is not going to attract much attention until she gets away from Cuba and gets more strength back. There are not any impressive troughs until the middle of next week that would influence her one way or the other.So besides it being Sunday morning, she just isnt "all that" yet. Poor Kyle is even in worse shape. Right now he is acting like he has seen enough and wants to go home. I know I am playing the game of pretending to not pay attention so that if the storms do "something" they won't catch me looking and fizzle out. Sometimes it is difficult to not anthropomorphize these storms.
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weather is all you can count on, good or bad.
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Okane
Unregistered
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Hope you don't mind to have amateurs here,
I`m a mexican lawyer, so, I don't have any idea of what's going on, but as I see Lili, seems like she has something in mind, and includes one way or the other the Yucatan Peninsula, guess it's our year, I know I shouldn't think of this storms as pepole buy they certinly act like living things.
We really want Lili to go somewhere else, like I said before part of the area is not in a very good shape now.
Guess the Mayan's had some kind of rituals for this things, shame we don't have them any more.
Good Morning
Beautiful Morning here
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joepub1
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 240
Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
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It looks like you are going to hear Lili called "Izzy's twin sister" alot the next couple of days, but up to this point she doesn't have the look of him. That's not a bad thing. Cuba would be more than happy to see her stay just the way she is until she hits the GOM.
Kyle's got one more bad day ahead of him, then we find out which forecast models have a grip on him, if he survives.
Worse case shown by models this morning: Lili hits LA late this coming week as Kyle drives into southern Bahama's. Ridge that breaks down allowing Lili to move north is just starting to give way to Kyle. From that point on, my guess is(but then it's all a guess, right?) Kyle could also begin moving W-NW-N around the ridge giving FL-EC some action. But looking at the two storms this morning doesn't make me want to run to Home Depot anytime soon.
Joe in Jax
Go Jags. Beat Jets! 
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Kevin
Weather Master
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Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
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Joepub1:
I agree with your predictions whole-heartedly--Kyle should eventually strike Florida in some way and Lili should strike the N or even W GOM. The question here is survival. Both of these storms have the potential to become damaging storms if they can hold on. Lili is trying valently to organize, but I bet she won't truly get her act together until past Jamaica. Kyle's survival is in question, and I'm also betting he will form a new center closer to where that deep, persistant ball of convection is. *IF* he makes it he should rev up quickly again...when high pressure builds aloft you usually associate intensification with it. Perhaps rapid.
Gonna be an intersting and important day. Won't be back until 5:00 PM today--I'm playing basketball all day with a few friends. If I'm lucky I'll get an early-evening post up. We'll see.
Bucs 31
Bengals 3
I don't think Cleveland will be able to score a TD-the Buccaneer defense is just too much.
Kevin 
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Can'tLogOnFrank
Unregistered
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I still can't log on... damage from Izzy????
Hopefully Lili will be a better behaved system than Izzy... With the strong High pressure building from the east over Fl, Lili should be influenced to track WNW, then NW and the overall steering currents should help the models perform better on her than Izzy.... maybe... hopefully.... YEAH RIGHT...
I still like the norhern Gulf Coast... this is not wishcasting by no means... I've had more than my share of systems this season... any time I can see an 8 foot tidal surge in front of my house, with waves plashing over the seawall on the highway, I've more than had my fill..... time for some one else... actually that's the first time for this to happen at my house since Camille... so it was a major event for me...
I also think Lili could be a MAJOR player down the road... that remains to be seen...
My Initial probabilities forecast is from TX/LA border (25%) to NO - Mobile (40%) to Panama city (35%)
Frank P
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Bruce
Weather Guru
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Posts: 139
Loc: Palm Bay, Florida
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Kyle is starting to get his act together. Convection has reached the South side of his center.
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Kevin
Weather Master
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Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
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I agree 100% Bruce. The convection has become VERY strong on the southern part of the circulation. I also noticed that the there is more high-level cloudiness developing around the center of circulation. There is still some shear, but it is now beginning to weaken. This is very clear because Kyle's northern fringes don't look like a pancake anymore. He is beginning to look more circular--a possible sign of shear letting up and redevelopment occuring soon.
Dr. Avila was uncertain on the 11:00 AM discussion as he was unsure that Kyle's improving appearence was temporary or the beginning of a trend. He forecasted 60 knots in 72 hours but also mentioned that additional improvement today could lead to hurricane intensity by 72 hours. It'll be interesting to see what's going on with him tonight.
Lili's convective activiy isn't real impressive at this point, only a small ball of deep convection exists on the western side of the circulation. I'm still thinking she will take off like a rocket west of Jamaica.
Have a great day,
Kevin 
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57497479
Weather Master
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Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
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Thanks Mary for your reply and to everyone else for their thoughts. I realize the forcast in part will be based off the point in which Lili enters into the GOM, so time will tell in that respect.
The Central Gulf does not need another hit, but it looks like a big possibility. It's good to hear Frank that there was not a lot of damage, if Izzy had not lost her punch you guys would have had a huge mess on your hands right now. Again, thanks for everyones in put.
Toni
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TONI
All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism
My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3
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game
Unregistered
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shawn call lilly to you the gulf coast dont want her thanks for your help
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david stuart
Unregistered
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Just looked at the site for Kyle and the prediction,. It is a circle so how can that be called a prediction?Maybe however Kyle is the reason for the nice surf in Stuart for this time of year.It appears the autumn dry spell has begun here as we have had little rain for the last 3 weeks. We have however had lots of predictions of tropical storms/hurricanes for this area as it seems at one time or another every storm has been raised as a possible hit in So Florida without anything ever really happening. The end result is I have burned out and no longer watch every sattelite loop for the expected turn towards me that never comes . I guess I will have to turn to the winter forecasts for freezes now as every year they predict a big freeze in So Florida and there has not been one for 13 years. All appears to be weathermen hype .
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HanKFranK
User
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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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kyle: maybe going to do another anticyclonic loop. storm is probably done weakening, but not in a position to restrengthen either. there is more diversity in model tracks, so the westward track is now more unsure... but i'm betting it will roll east then south, then back west as a large surface high builds off to the northwest.
lili: strength has oscillated quite a bit during the last 48hr.. land interaction is keeping the storm in a spurty mode. once it clears jamaica, appears to be set up to deepen quite rapidly. already has an inner core more typical of a mature hurricane, for some reason... with an eye being reported by recon and a hint of a banding eye in satelite shots at times.
eventual track wnw.. probably through the yucatan channel.. and towards the louisiana coast.
this could be quite a strong hurricane if it stops running over land.
94L: hitting a pretty good upper shear axis.. low level vortex was probably less than a day from depression strength. might continue wnw-nw under shear and emerge in the low shear zone further west.. with enough left to begin intensification. this is very uncertain.. this system could become another named tropical cyclone.
HF 1806z29september
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usufruct
Registered User
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Posts: 7
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We've got the most northerly commercial (and organic) orange grove in the state. I'll let you know if you're in for any freezes down there unless my lips are already frozen together and I can't talk.
Robin Lauriault
Usufruct Groves
Melrose, FL
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CLOF
Unregistered
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NHC probabilities product continue to increase for the northern gulf coast... Lili might be another LA/MS event if models come to fruition... intensity could be a major concern as some models indicate a potential for a major hurricane...
Right now Lili is not nearly as big as Izzy and so it won't impact nearly as much area... however, Lili should be much more intense and destructive where ever she goes, and it could be bad news...
My gut feeling for Lili is New Orleans again or just off to the west... early in May I said N'awlins was my number one target area, primarly because it has been so long since a direct hit... thus far this season NO has had two direct hits with tropical storms... IF Lili strikes NO, I fear it will be much greater than a TS... time will tell ...
I also predicted 12 named storms, 8 hurricanes and 3 majors.... looks like I'll be short on totals because I think we'll end up with more than 12 for the season..
Tracking Izzy made the season for me as it was such an unpredictable storm, and ended up in my front yard....
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JustMe
Weather Guru
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Posts: 128
Loc: Orlando, Florida
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Hi Everyone
Been out most of the day
Missing all the talk re the two storms
Last week the talk was hot and heavy
now there doesn't seem to be a care. I still
am interested and would love to hear what others
are feeling as these two are getting closer.
What does the freeze and grapefruit have to do with the storms?
Hope all is back to talk re the storms
I was loving the talk and the what if's and the I think and my prediction is...
This is a great site
Sue
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I have survived Betsy Miss, Camille Miss., Andrew Fl, Charley Fl, Frances FL, Jeanne FL,
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Mary K.
Weather Guru
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Posts: 166
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I truly think that Isidore was the true finale to the hurricane season. There may be a few more whistles and flares but if this were a 4th of July display, the most expensive fire works have already been displayed and I think Mexico and Jamaica Got them.
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weather is all you can count on, good or bad.
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squirralee
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 80
Loc: Mims, Florida
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If you don't mind my asking...exactly where do you live?
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