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Archives 2002-2009 >> 2002 Storm Forum
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Kevin
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
Kyle concerns
      #5482 - Sat Sep 28 2002 10:14 AM

The much advertised shear over Kyle continues this morning, but one thing is concerning me. There is only 24-30 hours of shear left and he is still just below minimal hurricane strength. Also, as I have seen myself and NHC has alluded to in the latest discussion, the ridge is becoming the dominant steering feature. That is likely the reason Kyle sped on some this morning.

I'm trying to say....Florida needs to watch this along with the northern Bahamas. When the ridge fully builds in aloft, Kyle could well intensify in a very significant manner. Andrew intenisfied and turned west under similar circumstances as did Betsy, despite the fact those two storms had completely different origins.

Here's my forecast for Kyle, I'll do just the intensity, but I expect a WSW motion through 36 hours followed by a due west motion with an increase in speed.
Initial: 65 knots
12: 60 knots
24: 55 knots
36: 50 knots
48: 55 knots
72: 65 knots
96: 80 knots
We'll see how this verifies. Changes will only be made in the event a drastic intensity or track changing-event occurs

Kevin

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