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Azores #96L fails to complete transition into a Sub-Tropical Storm. Elsewhere, weak low pressure in Caribbean may linger into next week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 46 (Nate) , Major: 64 (Maria) Florida - Any: 74 (Irma) Major: 74 (Irma)
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Archives >> 2005 Storm Forum

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sgruv
Registered User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 2
Loc: Los Angeles
tracking the high pressure system is the key....
      #55643 - Wed Sep 21 2005 09:57 AM

I am no scientist of any sort but it seems to me that where this storm hits land will be because of the precise movement of the High pressure system
located above LA and TX and MS. Is this even remotely true? If so I would like to know immediately how to track the movement of the
High pressure system so I can give my wife a heads up of whether to go east or west. My theory is that if High moves significantly east over
next 12 hours then by the time Rita gets closer to land it is going to take the exact direction that Katrina did and head Northeast which in
this case because my wife and her family are in Vinton, I would say that they should head towards Corpus which happens to be the only
place that has hotels vaccant in the lower half of texas. Any professional input would be greatly appreciated at this time. : }

thansk sean

sorry if i put this in wrong spot, i am new and just a bit nervous at the moment, please forgive me.

Edited by sgruv (Wed Sep 21 2005 10:00 AM)


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sgruv
Registered User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 2
Loc: Los Angeles
Re: tracking the high pressure system is the key.... [Re: sgruv]
      #55663 - Wed Sep 21 2005 10:34 AM

Is my question so stupid that no one has any kind of useful information that may let me know where i can find up to date info
on the High pressure sytem above louisiana? If not then then thanks for nothing and sorry for the intrusion.


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Tazmanian93
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 481
Loc: Tampa
Re: tracking the high pressure system is the key.... [Re: sgruv]
      #55666 - Wed Sep 21 2005 10:43 AM

Sorry you did not get an answer, I am not an expert but this is the site I use, I use the 700-850 layer, you can adjust in 3 hour increments and there are even more options on the home page. Good luck to your wife!!!!

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm1.html

--------------------
Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.

Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!

****************

Ed


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reasonmclucus
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 17
Loc: Kansas
Re: tracking the high pressure system is the key.... [Re: sgruv]
      #55794 - Wed Sep 21 2005 02:33 PM

I believe it depends in part on how strong the high pressure system is. Air moves clockwise around a high pressure system. A high pressure systen would tend to move a hurricane along its southern and western sides. I don't recall the location of high pressure systems during Katrina, but I do recall noticing clouds moving to the south in the area west of Louisiana which if resulting from high pressure would indicate it was west of La. There was also westward movement across Fl. which could indicate a high pressure system to its north.

Prior to Katrina a series of cold fronts had moved into the central plains and stalled there. One of them may have continued into Texas just prior to Katrina hitting New Orleans.

I recall once reading that one of the "benefits" of hurricanes is that they can affect high pressure systems that tend to keep land temperatures and divert rainfall elsewhere.

there is a good site for following hurricanes at

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200518_5day.html


the site includes a page that shows the results of various computer projections which are now coming closer to agreeing on a path that would indicate landfall roughly between Houston and San Antonio.

--------------------
Almost only counts in horseshoes, hand grenades and hurricanes.


Edited by reasonmclucus (Wed Sep 21 2005 02:38 PM)


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: 45.95N 84.55W
Re: tracking the high pressure system is the key.... [Re: sgruv]
      #55819 - Wed Sep 21 2005 03:23 PM

Your post went 45min before you posted again. Not always is there someone who can answer questions immediately, particularly when it is not in the main forum. My apologies, but please understand this for the future.

You can use the 500mb heights at http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/upper/, or just follow the anticyclonic motion of the moisture on WV satellite imagery.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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SMOKE
Weather Watcher


Reged: Mon
Posts: 33
Loc: USA, Ga.
Re: tracking the high pressure system is the key.... [Re: Clark]
      #56251 - Thu Sep 22 2005 06:27 AM

Unfortunately there isn't a bug blue H that you could easily track here .
As previously mentioned the 500mb level would be more representative of what broadcast meteorlogists are speaking to. As that high shifts to the east, the storm will follow the path of least resistance or shear .



Travel recomendation: WEST. San Antonio is nice this time of year, however, be advised there will always be the threat of thunderstorm development .... and in some cases severe.

--------------------




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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: tracking the high pressure system is the key.... [Re: sgruv]
      #57569 - Sun Oct 02 2005 12:35 AM

You should always make evacuation decisions based on the predicted path by NHC, and your local NWS information. NHC has had an amazingly good track record in predicting the track and landfall of hurricanes.

It is never a good idea to evacuate to another coastal area that may be prone to storm surge and high winds, should a hurricane change course. It is necessary to go inland.

If you can't find hotels nearby, welcome to the world of hurricane evacuations in our increasingly-populated coastline. In MS, local hotels are all taken early by LA and AL evacuees; MS residents usually have to go as far as TN or TX to evacuate. Every time you have to evacuate, it cost time and $. You have to move everything off the floor and board up your house, take time off work, get money from the bank, decide how to care for pets, pack clothes, food, medications, etc, spend hours in traffic jams on the road and run the risk of being stranded with no available gasoline. It is becoming increasingly expensive to evacuate, which may have to be done several times in a season, and many of the people who live in the coastal areas are poor.

That is why it is important to have a plan in place, and some provisions stocked, at the beginning of each hurricane season.

The steering of a storm is much more complicated than looking at one area of high pressure. Also hurricanes are steered by winds at different heights in the atmosphere depending on their intensity. Trust NHC regarding forecast predictions; don't try to second-guess them with limited knowledge. They are very good at what they do, and their goal is to provide the right warnings to make as many people as safe as possible.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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