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Archives 2000s >> 2006 Forecast Lounge

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reasonmclucus
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 17
Loc: Kansas
TS Rita
      #54997 - Sun Sep 18 2005 09:37 PM

I hope that if the current projected track for TS Rita is wrong, it is wrong about her entering the GOM. She is projected to enter and be southwest of Florida as a Cat 1 hurricane on Tuesday, then proceed to hit southern Texas or northern Mexico Friday or Saturday.

I hate to wish a hurricane to hit anywhere, but Florida has had more than its share of hurricanes and the Louisiana Mississippi area is still cleaning up from Katrina. The SST are lower than for Katrina, but not enough lower to prevent Rita from becoming a major hurricane, hopefully no more than a Cat 3.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/

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Almost only counts in horseshoes, hand grenades and hurricanes.


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SMOKE
Weather Watcher


Reged: Mon
Posts: 33
Loc: USA, Ga.
Re: TS Rita [Re: reasonmclucus]
      #55069 - Mon Sep 19 2005 10:12 AM

Agreed the model agreement may be good but any thing near LA will cause concern.

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royener
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 11
Loc: Clearwater, FL
Re: TS Rita [Re: reasonmclucus]
      #55226 - Mon Sep 19 2005 04:20 PM

These things are so unpredictable that it is impossible to give a really accurate estimate this early, all the models seem to agree on the general track, my gut feeling is that it will swing to the north. this seems to be the trend of the storms this year, also it is a wiggly one so it does not seem to have yet set its future path.
We were put under mandatory evac last year for Charlie and told to make for Kissimmee, it missed Clearwater and hit Kissimmee.
So if I were anywhere East of Houston I would be watching this one every mile of the way.


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reasonmclucus
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 17
Loc: Kansas
Re: TS Rita [Re: royener]
      #55440 - Tue Sep 20 2005 01:27 PM

the New Orleans Mayor has recently suspended the reopening of the city pending more on what Rita will do. Texas still seems to be the prime target, but if the models miss they tend to underestimate turns to the north and east which means New Orleans is still at risk. Hurricanes normally eventually go northeast, but determining when isn't easy.

Galveston, Texas which was literally wiped out by a hurricane over a century ago is very much in the target area for Rita although at least this time they will have a warning that they didn't have then.

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Almost only counts in horseshoes, hand grenades and hurricanes.


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reasonmclucus
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 17
Loc: Kansas
Re: TS Rita [Re: reasonmclucus]
      #55773 - Wed Sep 21 2005 02:15 PM

Rita has already reached Cat. 4 status. I anticipate Cat. 5 by tomorrow or maybe even tonight.
I'm glad I don't live on the Texas coast.

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Almost only counts in horseshoes, hand grenades and hurricanes.


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