Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
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Loc: Oklahoma
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After taking a wobble to the NW, appears to have taken a sharp left back to the W in the last few IR images. These storms don't move in perfectly straight lines, so I would advise anyone not to drive yourself crazy with the short-term wobbles of the eye.
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The Force 2005
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Philadelphia
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Well, Joe "B" just did his briefing on FNC, and he stated the the point of impact could be 50-60 mile south of GAL/HOU. But he did re-iterate that he believes a track more to the right which means GAL/HOU with winds at 150+ for that area. Another Catastrophic storm about to hit in about 48 hrs. May god bless us and those in the path of this monster.
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Twin Cities
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Quote:
Margie:
Sine is opposite over hypotenus. Tangent is opposite over adjacent. If you are using delta longitude and latitude, you should use tangent, not sine.
I was just going the long way around the barn...calculating the hypotenuse first. But actually I'm glad you made me look twice...math was off but not for that reason, I dropped a decimal point. Angle is less than 1 degree  So movement last 24 hours was 270.
Hey, the last couple hours the cloud tops are getting colder, and eye is getting smaller (maybe I better steer clear of numbers for awhile, and just use adjectives).
Edited by Margie (Thu Sep 22 2005 02:13 AM)
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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Ouch...
Louisiana looks under the gun again - look at the latest ensemble runs!
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/gfs_track1.png
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lunkerhunter
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Saint Augustine, FL
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interesting study on 's "hot towers".
I'm sure has them too.
Hot Towers
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The Force 2005
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Philadelphia
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Yes, but only 4 out of 15 ensembles. Not a good average.
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
Ouch...
Louisiana looks under the gun again - look at the latest ensemble runs!
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/gfs_track1.png
Oh God. AP04 puts this thing on top of BILOXI at the end of the run!?!?
All of the models turn it eastward after landfall (or southeast)???
What are AN03 and AP04? Those seem to be the most ominous, taking the thing into Louisiana and then back down into the GOM near N.O. and Biloxi, respectively. Literally, that's unbelievable.
It's only one model run, though. If it continues I'll be panicky in the morning...
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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The Force 2005
Storm Tracker
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The TITAN model just shown on FNC shows the power of . Tropical storm force winds will be from TX/MX border all along the Gulf Coast to N.O. That is an outrageous wind field to expand that far out and wide. Radar from Miami still showing outter rain bands still coming onshore on the West Coast of FLA, considering her location out into the Gulf.
Edited by The Force 2005 (Thu Sep 22 2005 02:12 AM)
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Genesis
Weather Guru
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Yeah, I didn't like that one bit.
Nor did I like what I appear to be seeing in the last few recon data plots.
I am not freaking out - yet - but in the morning that may change. Not that I think we're going to get it "in the face" over here in the Panhandle - but I do not like trends when they go against what's been prognosticated - not only by myself, but also by pro Mets.
My "bullseye" last night before the 10pm update was 90.04W at landfall with a nearly-due-north motion - which is roughly the western tip of Galveston. I'm still there, but my confidence is not what it was last evening.....
I want to see anotehr six hours of a significantly north of west motion - and a crossing of 25N before or at 88W - before I start getting concerned that my projection was way off-base.
90.04W is the New Orleans Airport...not Galveston.~danielw
Edited by danielw (Thu Sep 22 2005 02:27 AM)
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lunkerhunter
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Saint Augustine, FL
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Sea surface Height Comparison - "Why will lose strength"
Katrina
Rita
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
I am not freaking out - yet - but in the morning that may change. Not that I think we're going to get it "in the face" over here in the Panhandle - but I do not like trends when they go against what's been prognosticated - not only by myself, but also by pro Mets.
Don't panic - yet. The last few IR images show a motion slight SOUTH of due west, to put back on a due west track over the long haul, it would seem, for now. My feeling is still that it will track north of the thin black line, maybe as far as near the TX/LA line even, but I *THINK* WE are safe here in the Panhandle.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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wxman007
Meteorologist
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Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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Quote:
Oh God. AP04 puts this thing on top of BILOXI at the end of the run!?!?
All of the models turn it eastward after landfall (or southeast)???
What are AN03 and AP04? Those seem to be the most ominous, taking the thing into Louisiana and then back down into the GOM near N.O. and Biloxi, respectively. Literally, that's unbelievable.
It's only one model run, though. If it continues I'll be panicky in the morning...
Some background on ensemble modelling...what you are seeing is the same model (the ) run several times with slightly different initial data (or perturbations)...AP is a positve perturbation, while AN is an negative one...the higher the number, the more extreme the change from what the observed initial data was. The fact that some of the runs go east is not surprising, in fact it SHOULD happen that way. As with all modelling for hurricanes, don't pick one of those lines and ride it...watch the trend for all of them!
In a related matter, in the 10pm (EDT) Conference Call, said they are shifting the track closer to Galveston in the 11pm package.
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Jason Kelley
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danielw
Moderator
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Quote:
Ouch...
Louisiana looks under the gun again - look at the latest ensemble runs!
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/gfs_track1.png
Watch the times on the model runs. That link is the 18Z run and is well over 8 hours old.~danielw
True...but that is the last data we have from the ...the 00Z just started running...JK
Okay, I'll go back to my corner.~danielw
Edited by danielw (Thu Sep 22 2005 02:28 AM)
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
In a related matter, in the 10pm (EDT) Conference Call, said they are shifting the track closer to Galveston in the 11pm package.
Thanks for the clarification regarding that graphic! So, is a shift closer to Galveston a track more northward? Did they indicate what the intensity would be set at? I have not seen a recon since the 899 one (which was originally 898) at 2309z which is 4 hours old now. Weren't they going to go to 3 hr fixes this afternoon?
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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satellite steve
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: Satellite Bch FL
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Another point to think about in the track is the two bubbles of high pressure - one over Fl and ! still west of over E texas- is that as the western high moves east there could be a little more southerly pressure on 's track as the high approaches. This could push her away from the highest heat content waters in the loop and eddy areas of the gulf.
still no realistic indication of a sudden major change in the track
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The Force 2005
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Philadelphia
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Daniel,
Looking at the , at 72hrs it looks like a TX/LA landfall, what is occuring for that to run the way it did?
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wxman007
Meteorologist
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Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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Quote:
Thanks for the clarification regarding that graphic! So, is a shift closer to Galveston a track more northward? Did they indicate what the intensity would be set at? I have not seen a recon since the 899 one (which was originally 898) at 2309z which is 4 hours old now. Weren't they going to go to 3 hr fixes this afternoon?
Yes, that is a track shift slighly more east/north. I didn't hear what the intensity would be, but we will find out in a few minutes anyway.
We are due for a vortex...overdue in fact...I am not sure if there has been an equipment problem in the recon aircraft (which has happened a lot with this storm) or if the latest recons are being "held" until the advisory comes out...(oh, I forgot...NHC promised they didn't do that...LOL).
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Jason Kelley
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Genesis
Weather Guru
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Well, like I said - I'm not freaking out - yet.
I have no reason to believe that the Panhandle is "under the gun" on this one. But - it appeared for the last 24 hours that my own workup - showing a bullseye on Galveston - was not jiving with the . I have some friends in that general area and while they were expecting a storm, they did not have the urgency to get out - even though they're being told to.
I told them where I thought it was going. They said they'd buy more beer. I told them to put the beer in the truck along with all their valuables, papers, and wardrobe and get the @!@$#!@ out! Drink the beer in a hotel room - 200 or more miles inland!
Hopefully they'll listen.... to me, to official requests and evac orders, to the .....
There are no real good solutions on the table for this thing going in right now. I personally think the western edge of my expected impact area still hoses Galveston badly, while the eastern edge probably puts enough rain and surge into NO to cause trouble there. I'm not buying a further westward/southward impact than that at this point, and I don't see an impact east of NO unless something really wild was to happen with the high over Texas (for which there is NO model support)... but I could be wrong!
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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She's trying to move more north, but can't.....
Water Vapor
Will be interesting to see where the "turn" will be... and how close to the coast....more NW or WNW.
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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wxman007
Meteorologist
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Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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11pm adv, pressure 897, winds 175 sustained....
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Jason Kelley
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