Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane CenterHurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


Multiple recon missions today including Invest #99L , Tropical Storm Jerry, and EPAC Lorena
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 15 (Dorian) , Major: 346 (Michael) Florida - Any: 346 (Michael) Major: 346 (Michael)
25.0N 66.9W
Wind: 65MPH
Pres: 1002mb
Moving:
Nnw at 12 mph
Click for Storm Spotlight
11.9N 60.2W
Wind: 40MPH
Pres: 1005mb
Moving:
Wnw at 9 mph
Click for Storm Spotlight
Invest 99LClick for Invest Information from CIMSS
COMMUNICATION
STORM DATA
CONTENT
FOLLOW US
ADS
Login to remove ads

 


Archives 2000s >> 2006 Forecast Lounge

Jump to first unread post. Pages: 1
MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4232
Loc: Orlando, FL
Rita Forecasts
      #55945 - Wed Sep 21 2005 06:34 PM

Where do you think Hurricane Rita will make landfall?

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Bayou64
Registered User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 6
Loc: Magnolia, TX
Re: Rita Forecasts [Re: MikeC]
      #56010 - Wed Sep 21 2005 08:19 PM

I'm hoping for landfall further south then predicted. I believe, however, the storm center will be about 20-30 miles east of Matagorda at landfall. I've been through Betsy and Camille and a slew of others between La. and Tx. This one spooks me.
Good luck to all in the path.
Jim Carbo
Magnolia, TX


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Bayou64
Registered User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 6
Loc: Magnolia, TX
Re: Rita Forecasts [Re: Bayou64]
      #56217 - Thu Sep 22 2005 02:00 AM

Well the NHC has changed its plot. I think I will too. As of this time, I suspect landfall should be near Bolivar Peninsula. My barometer is reading slightly higher than earlier. Let's hope that's a good thing. I'm still in the "cone" but hoping for a more easterly push now.
Good luck to those in the path(wrath).
Carbo
Magnolia, TX


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
reasonmclucus
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 17
Loc: Kansas
Re: Rita Forecasts [Re: MikeC]
      #56236 - Thu Sep 22 2005 04:16 AM

The NHC did a good job forecasting Katrina's track. I suspect if they miss it will involve setting the course too far south. Galveston needs to have Rita hit to the north, but I think she will hit close enough on the south side to cause significant damage, particularly if she only falls back to a Category 4. If she hits as a Cat. 5 it may not make much difference. Her pressure has dropped to 898mb. with winds at 175 mph which might qualify as a Cat 6 if there were such a Category.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/023809.shtml?3day

The current track indicates we may be feeling some effects from Rita here in central Kansas.
I noticed the computer models at wunderground were showing a northern turn before Texas, but that may be due to problems with the display considering that some of them were showing current location between Cuba and Mexico.

--------------------
Almost only counts in horseshoes, hand grenades and hurricanes.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
SMOKE
Weather Watcher


Reged: Mon
Posts: 33
Loc: USA, Ga.
Re: Rita Forecasts [Re: reasonmclucus]
      #56291 - Thu Sep 22 2005 08:53 AM

We are definately getting down to the wire for the landfall forecast.
Director Mayfield has made it clear there will be some changes to the track. Model agreement is no greater than Katrina 48-72hrs before landfall.

--------------------




Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Bayou64
Registered User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 6
Loc: Magnolia, TX
Re: Rita Forecasts [Re: MikeC]
      #56380 - Thu Sep 22 2005 12:29 PM

As the NHC moves their predictions east I will too. I'm thinking landfall more along the mid La coast, not Beaumont, Port Arthur area. When I was growing up in the New Orleans area we wouldn't rule out a storm hitting us if it was above 25n and it had not passed 90w. New Orleans may take another shot with this one.
Good luck to those in the path.
Carbo
Magnolia, TX


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
cmiller324
Registered User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 6
Re: Rita Forecasts [Re: Bayou64]
      #56382 - Thu Sep 22 2005 12:41 PM

I am a newbie on this site.
My guess would be landfall somewhere in the vicinity of Pecan Island, La. That is 50-55miles east of Cameron.
A little too close to me in Terrebonne Parish, La.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Bayou64
Registered User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 6
Loc: Magnolia, TX
Re: Rita Forecasts [Re: cmiller324]
      #56390 - Thu Sep 22 2005 01:00 PM

I wouldn't put it out of the question for this thing to actually go east of there. I'll have to check some other data in about 6-8 hours. At least with this trend I'm breathing a sigh of relief, for the moment, since traffic leaving the area is at a stand still.
Good luck to those in the path.
Carbo
Magnolia, TX


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
reasonmclucus
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 17
Loc: Kansas
Re: Rita Forecasts [Re: SMOKE]
      #56792 - Fri Sep 23 2005 02:47 AM

The computer projections are getting wierd. One has Rita turning around and going south along the Texas coast to Mexico.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200518_model.html

I gather that some of the projections are expecting Rita to go south around the High pressure system. If they are right 'Rita could hit the La. coast and then go south to Texas.

I still think Texas is a likely target but fortunately north of Galveston rather than south. Unfortunately, too far north east and New Orleans gets flooded again. With Rita's size that could happen even with landfall at Galveston.

--------------------
Almost only counts in horseshoes, hand grenades and hurricanes.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
reasonmclucus
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 17
Loc: Kansas
Re: Rita Forecasts [Re: MikeC]
      #56966 - Fri Sep 23 2005 01:24 PM

I've been looking at the geography of the area. the indented nature of the shoreline could allow the top winds to affect a much larger area than is often the case. If Rita comes in at the right angle the top winds could affect much of the La. coast even if the eye itself makes landfall in Texas.

--------------------
Almost only counts in horseshoes, hand grenades and hurricanes.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Bayou64
Registered User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 6
Loc: Magnolia, TX
Re: Rita Forecasts [Re: MikeC]
      #57147 - Sat Sep 24 2005 12:47 AM

Landfall is almost..."almost" certain. It will probably move inland. BUT....Don't be surprised if this thing doesn't loop around in the next 8-12 hrs. I'm thinking a loop towards the west.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
reasonmclucus
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 17
Loc: Kansas
Re: Rita Forecasts [Re: Bayou64]
      #57202 - Sat Sep 24 2005 03:07 AM

Quote:

Landfall is almost..."almost" certain. It will probably move inland. BUT....Don't be surprised if this thing doesn't loop around in the next 8-12 hrs. I'm thinking a loop towards the west.




You're not the only one suggesting a loop. A couple of the computer models are also suggesting a loop. One would have Rita back into the Gulf, one toward the middle of Texas and another moving south west along the Texas coast.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200518_model.html

--------------------
Almost only counts in horseshoes, hand grenades and hurricanes.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Pages: 1



Extra information
0 registered and 3 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  MikeC, Ed Dunham, danielw 

Print Topic

Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating:
Topic views: 8726

Rate this topic

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at
Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center