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Archives >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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MikeCAdministrator
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Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Watching the Caribbean
      #57367 - Mon Sep 26 2005 06:59 PM

After Rita, it's been fairly quiet in the tropics, except for one area in the Caribbean. Chances are slowly gaining that it will form into a new depression later in the week. This wave is being called 99L by the navy.

Right now I'd give it a 25% of developing in the next two days, it will get higher as the week progresses. It's somewhat less today because a lot of the circulation "split" and is very disorganized right now. Windshear will decrease later in the week, making the chances drift upward.

The models in the map below are dubious at best, I never like to take early model runs worth for much of anything.

We'll be updating that as more information arrives.



Hurricane Rita caused a great deal of flooding in damage in Cameron Parish in Lousiana. Where most of the damage was seen. Like initial after Katrina, damage wasn't seen as widespread until helicopters toured the area. I hope most decided to evacuate the area there.

Event Related Links
Stormcarib reports from the islands

99L

Animated model plot of 99L


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Storm Cooper
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Re: Watching the Caribbean [Re: MikeC]
      #57368 - Mon Sep 26 2005 07:23 PM

Thanks for the new thread Mike! As you said the early model runs are dubious. Hopefully 99L will die off into nothing but it needs to be watched none the less just in case.

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2012 11/5/2


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stevie
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Re: Watching the Caribbean [Re: MikeC]
      #57369 - Mon Sep 26 2005 08:11 PM

Mike, can you send me a link to a model page or info on the front coming down. I want to find out why or if the short wave coming down through the midwest is going to pick up this system in the caribbean. Thanks

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Ryan
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Re: Watching the Caribbean [Re: stevie]
      #57371 - Mon Sep 26 2005 10:51 PM

oh no i really hope this stays out of the gulfff.....ugh i feel so bad for tall those on the gulf coast

--------------------
2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.

Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


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Loc: Twin Cities
Re: Watching the Caribbean [Re: Ryan]
      #57373 - Mon Sep 26 2005 11:47 PM

A question on hurricane stats. Do storms towards the end of the season have much of a chance to make it to major hurricane status? I bet someone here has some numbers on previous seasons, for October and November storms.
not uncommon to get a major in october. uncommon in november, but it's happened twice in the last ten years. -HF

Edited by HanKFranK (Tue Sep 27 2005 12:57 AM)


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HanKFranK
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watching down the road [Re: Margie]
      #57374 - Tue Sep 27 2005 01:45 AM

a few things worth watching, all of which will take a couple to few days to do anything... but definite signs of life in the models right now. quick rundown from west to east:
north gulf: a vorticity lobe peeled off of Rita and has descended into the gulf. it's non-tropical and elongated and northerly-sheared, and has little model support.. but a few of the globals are watching it for the next couple of days... showing it as quasi-stationary. i'm not as certain that it will completely go away as some are showing, but am assuming the no-development idea is right because not a single model has any interest in it.
central caribbean: wave/low 99L is still undergoing some easterly shear. there are a good number of upper lows running around the basin, and this one is still tangling with them. model consensus is that it moves wnw-nw and becomes more defined later in the week in the nw caribbean. from there some show it moving over the yucatan and into the western gulf. potential threat if it develops.
central atlantic: the philippe eater. currently an extratropical low east of bermuda that's peeled back off the front it earlier merged with. it's been devoid of convection until some suddenly blew up at the center this evening. doesn't mean much.. yet. if that persists it'll transition into something. if it isn't generating gales right now it's dang close. shoul;d it develop it'll just get yanked out when the next trough comes by.
45 wave: sheared, broad, plodding west. several reliable globals show it moving wnw on a recurvature-type track this week, then getting blocked and turning west towards the u.s. over the weekend as a strong ridge develops over the western atlantic and eastern u.s. next week. it has to survive this week and miss the first trough connection... but a potential threat if it makes it through... to the southeast coast.
gfs shows waves behind perking up but common sense says they won't do anything this late in the year in the far eastern atlantic.
none of those four areas is imminent to do anything.... but at least one and quite possibly two should develop over the next week to ten days.
HF 0545z27september


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Margie
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Re: watching down the road [Re: HanKFranK]
      #57376 - Tue Sep 27 2005 09:04 AM

Thx for your comment. I suppose given the season's predictions and the way things have been going that we could expect to see one more landfall before the season's over.

I'm still seeing the edge of a LLC in 99L peaking out this morning at 17N 77W, and not seeing the shear like yesterday but looks more like outflow from last night's convection...wisps going out in diff dir from the center. That wouldn't be possible would it?

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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Random Chaos
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Posts: 989
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Re: watching down the road [Re: Margie]
      #57378 - Tue Sep 27 2005 09:43 AM

NHC isn't seeing any rapid development for these systems right now. The one over the Caribean looks to be forming better convection this morning, but it's still a long way off (hopefully).

SAL isn't very strong in the atlantic, but it covers a very broad area. It might inhibit some development. Unfortunately none of the SAL reaches the Caribean, so if and when the winds become favorable, I wouldn't be surprised to see that system form a TD. The water down there is quite warm, with deep 26C isotherms. It's capable of supporting a major storm...at least the Gulf is cool now, and hopefully will remain so.

--RC
P.S. - thx for the new thread


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ftlaudbob
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Reged: Tue
Posts: 757
Loc: Lauderdale-By- the- Sea,Fl 26.19N 80.10W
Re: watching down the road [Re: Random Chaos]
      #57379 - Tue Sep 27 2005 09:55 AM

Nothing would surprise me anymore.All the hurricanes this year formed in the western atlantic,none from the east.So if we see something develope in the east and make it over here in October,hey like I said nothing can surprise me now.Waters are still very warm.If someone said in May that we would have 8 canes,And not one formed in the east atlantic,we would all call the person crazy.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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Ed in Va
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 488
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Re: watching down the road [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #57380 - Tue Sep 27 2005 10:35 AM

This water vapor loop shows three possibly interesting areas...the tail end of the front in the Gulf, the tail end of whatever east of PR, and a little more organization of the disturbance south of the DR:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-wv-loop.html

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


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Thunderbird12
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Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: watching down the road [Re: Ed in Va]
      #57382 - Tue Sep 27 2005 11:19 AM

They actually did two SHIPS runs around 12Z this morning for the system currently over the Caribbean (99L). One was initialized at 13.6 N, 73.8 W with a initial intensity of 20 knots. The second one (run about 30 minutes later) was given an initial position at 13.7 N, 75.6 W and an initial intensity of 25 knots. Both runs indicated steady strengthening through 120 hours, so it appears that the conditions (at least in the model reality) will be favorable for this system if it can establish itself as a tropical cyclone (jury still out on that, obviously). I don't know if they decided that the system looked stronger and farther west than what they originally thought, or if they were just plugging numbers in to test various scenarios.

They also did a 06Z GFDL run for 99L, but the forecast never even made it to 6 hours before the system was considered to be dissipated, so the GFDL is not impressed yet.

Update: Just read the latest outlook from NHC and they do seem more impressed this morning:

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE CENTERED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES SOUTHEAST
OF JAMAICA IS PRODUCING CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
TODAY... AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE ALSO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM TOMORROW... IF NECESSARY. INTERESTS IN
JAMAICA... THE CAYMAN ISLANDS... AND IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


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Re: watching down the road [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #57384 - Tue Sep 27 2005 12:22 PM

Yeah I did see what I thought I saw and posted on this morning!

But you know what I didn't think to do do...but just saw on Steve Gregory's blog: check the buoy. He did. Winds went from ENE to WSW within two hours this am on 42058, located at about 15N 75W, from 7 to 9 am-ish.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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doug
Weather Analyst


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Re: watching down the road [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #57385 - Tue Sep 27 2005 12:31 PM

I think this is the eastern most group of convection from what yesterday was two distinct groups...the western most hustled off to the NW and was pulled up into the shear associated with the ULL...this held back and was and still is partially under a small ridge pulling westward in the wake of that ULL. The system therefore is showing the effects of shear on the west, but the North and NE quardrants are actually holding their own, with some outflow over the top of those storms...the visual hints at a LLC. The NRL has intensity at 25 kts. It looks better today than yesterday at this same time. I still think it is a 40% go.
If I recall correctly MItch was the most recent late October cat 5 that reaped death and destruction in Mexico and Hondouras. That storm is a good example of how unpredictible these things really get later in the season when things change quickly.

--------------------
doug


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lennox
Registered User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 2
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Re: watching down the road [Re: Margie]
      #57386 - Tue Sep 27 2005 12:44 PM

Buoy wind data:
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42058

More recently the winds have continued to swing around:
1550 NNW ( 331 deg ) 6.6 kts
1540 NW ( 316 deg ) 6.4 kts
1530 NW ( 304 deg ) 6.6 kts
1520 WNW ( 296 deg ) 5.1 kts
1510 WNW ( 283 deg ) 6.4 kts
1500 W ( 273 deg ) 7.0 kts


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javlin
Weather Master


Reged: Wed
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Re: watching down the road [Re: Margie]
      #57387 - Tue Sep 27 2005 01:08 PM

99L has a better sat presentation as the day goes on will be interesting to see if it prevails for 24 hrs.If it should yea we should be looking for a more Northerly componet later on this week.This could in all likily hood be another WGOM threat.The models are forcasting a huge ridge from LA/MS border to the coast of Africa.You talk about moving some waves to the west..I would not be surprised to here Alpha and Beta later.

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HanKFranK
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Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
Re: watching down the road [Re: javlin]
      #57388 - Tue Sep 27 2005 01:50 PM

99L is looking better today. those SFC reports and the satellite are showing a close low. slowing down and throwing deep convection, developing an outflow jet... you do the math. ssd still hasn't rated it... either TW or 1.0 right now i'd guess. really good chance it'll be a depression tomorrow when they recon it. i'd expect it to track south of the caymans for the next couple of days, and be near cozumel around friday. long term i'm betting it ends up somewhere on the texas coast early next week.
that system east of the islands hasn't come together yet. it'll probably be a couple more days before an invest quality system re-emerges (it was 98L a few days ago... they may reassign that number or just skip ahead. around the weekend this thing will probably be developing south of bermuda.. and it ought to run west towards the southeast coast. not sure whether it makes it or tries to turn at the coast. as always, preliminary best bet is north carolina, though it'll come in further south if it plows straight in.
HF 1748z27september


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 989
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Re: watching down the road [Re: HanKFranK]
      #57389 - Tue Sep 27 2005 02:31 PM

Just a note:

GOES Floater 1 is now on 99L

I'm seeing definate spin and wraping of convection starting on IR. NHC TWD also mentions the banding: "VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW BANDING FEATURES DEVELOPING ON THE N SIDE OF THE WAVE WITH SYMMETRIC OUTFLOW. "

NHC Source: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWDAT+shtml/271706.shtml?

Edited by Random Chaos (Tue Sep 27 2005 02:33 PM)


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Thunderbird12
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Re: watching down the road [Re: HanKFranK]
      #57390 - Tue Sep 27 2005 02:32 PM

99L has been upgraded to a "Special Feature" in the latest TWD:

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W/76W S OF CUBA WITH
A 1010 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 14N. OBSERVATIONS FROM BUOY
42058 SUGGEST THERE IS A WEAK LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE WITH
WLY WINDS RECENTLY REPORTED...THOUGH THOSE WINDS ARE LIKELY
ENHANCED BY DOWNDRAFTS AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. VISIBLE
SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW BANDING FEATURES DEVELOPING ON THE N
SIDE OF THE WAVE WITH SYMMETRIC OUTFLOW. THIS AREA HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 36
HOURS. A SLOW MOVEMENT TO THE WNW IS LIKELY... PLACING THE
SYSTEM IN THE W CARIBBEAN LATE WED/EARLY THU. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 13.5N-17.5N BETWEEN 74W-78W. HEAVY
RAIN IS POSSIBLE FOR JAMAICA LATER TODAY AND OVERNIGHT.

They also have two recon flights scheduled for tomorrow on the latest recon POD.

Edited by Thunderbird12 (Tue Sep 27 2005 02:34 PM)


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 810
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Re: watching down the road [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #57391 - Tue Sep 27 2005 03:04 PM

ANY DATA ON THE SST'S DOWN THERE? THE GRAPHS SUGGEST MID 80'S...ANY SPECIFICS?

--------------------
doug


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Reaper
Weather Watcher


Reged: Wed
Posts: 38
Loc: Lake Placid, Fla 27.34N 81.34W
Re: watching down the road [Re: doug]
      #57392 - Tue Sep 27 2005 03:08 PM

Try here:

http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data/anomnight.9.27.2005.gif


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