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Archives >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 572
Re: rita jr, 99L, and the precursor [Re: Ryan]
      #57458 - Wed Sep 28 2005 11:17 PM

what is more amazing than the actual 1938 event its self is the fact that civility returned in such droves in the decades that followed, so that by the turn of this century population and construction was/is many times over in greater magnitude than the 1938.

long island is a particularly primed location for a tempest with a bad attitude; moreover, new york city could suffer a fate as dire as new orleans should a cat 3 hurricane be moving rapidly up the coast and then quasi-hook nw into the bite waters that nexus ne new jersey with the western end of long island. that area would effectively funnel the storm surges impinging on both coastlines into that "v", which would then spill (probably) a 20+ foot storm surge into downtown manhatten and surrounding areas. the entire infrastructure of the city would be toast. think of that...high voltage lines, telecommunications, subways, not to mention contaminants, all under 20 feet of sea water while 120mph wind gusts are funneling between the dangerously rocking sky-scrapers...probably shedding huge amounts of glass and peripheral construction components in a rain of utter chaos and terror. and, it could actually take more lives for shear process of population densities. anything going over the arm of the island would simply be awesome in this day and age...
low probability event. it's hard to get a cat 3 that far north unless it's moving fast. really fast movers don't have quite the surge, usually. but yeah, there is a lot of real estate to wreck up thataway, but strong hurricanes approaching western new england are pretty rare, because you need a really high latitude ridge and a trough coming along at just the right time to draw it due north across the cool coastal waters fast enough for it to still be strong. -HF

Edited by HanKFranK (Thu Sep 29 2005 01:28 AM)


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: Waveland [Re: MapMaster]
      #57462 - Thu Sep 29 2005 12:59 AM

That's really an exit at 43 and I-10. If you take 43 north, then you hit 603 north of Kiln (the exit might say 603 on it though).

Anyway...the land that exit is on is at 5 ft elevation. So even if I-10 was 25 feet higher it would still only jibe with the 30-ft surge number.

The damage from the surge there is not surprising and probably doesn't have to do with velocity so much...water is quite heavy. One cubic foot is about 62 pounds, and a cubic yard weighs as much as a car. Water doesn't compress for all practical purposes. For this reason moving water packs quite a large force, which can do seemingly amazing things (such as in Mobile float an oil rig downriver and wedge it under a high bridge).

So...with all the water towers that have survived, I'm wondering if the new model for successful beachfront homes is steel girders sunk into the ground and a house built to withstand strong winds that can be raised and lowered on that framework. Not cheap, but would it work. I think the houses that were already on wooden piers washed away because they weren't high enough above the surge and coastal waves.

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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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Ryan
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 281
Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
Re: rita jr, 99L, and the precursor [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #57489 - Thu Sep 29 2005 04:06 PM

Quote:

low probability event. it's hard to get a cat 3 that far north unless it's moving fast. really fast movers don't have quite the surge, usually. but yeah, there is a lot of real estate to wreck up thataway, but strong hurricanes approaching western new england are pretty rare, because you need a really high latitude ridge and a trough coming along at just the right time to draw it due north across the cool coastal waters fast enough for it to still be strong. -HF




i hope your right HF about that ebcuase i mean 1038 was supposedley a cat 3 and so was gloria if i am correct, i also think with global warming the high of the water temp up here was like 75, thats unusual up here..and also, about the system you expect to for off of the coast..you said it was supposed to go in south of hatteras..as a weak storm do you have any imput on the strenght..thanks...Ryann

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2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.

Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back


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