HCW
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Mobile,AL
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model runs and lastest Sat images from all of our systems
http://img108.imageshack.us/img108/9588/james27to.png
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Big Kahuna
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: DeLand, Florida
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Quote:
I thought 's winds were over 125 when it hit Port Charlotte/Cape Coral area? Anyway, i would rather see the thing not develop at all, but if it did, a trop storm or less is not too bad.
from the report:
Charley made landfall on the southwest coast of Florida near Cayo Costa, just north of Captiva, around 1945 UTC 13 August with maximum sustained winds near 130 kt. 's eye passed over Punta Gorda at about 2045 UTC, and the eyewall struck that city and neighboring Port Charlotte with devastating results. Continuing north-northeastward at a slightly faster forward speed, the hurricane traversed the central Florida peninsula, resulting in a swath of destruction across the state. The center passed near Kissimmee and Orlando around 0130 UTC 14 August, by which time the interaction with land caused the maximum sustained winds to decrease to around 75 kt. was still of hurricane intensity, with maximum sustained winds of 65-70 kt, when the center moved off the northeast coast of Florida near Daytona Beach at around 0330 UTC 14 August.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2004charley.shtml?
93L doesnt look all that great right now, look like just another glob of crap that going to bring rain. we'll have to wait and see.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/GOES/EAST/GMEX/RGB_loop.html
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Loc: Maryland
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I leave for work having just seen 92L become Tammy.
I come home from work and we have 93L and 94L.
Wow.
Now here is the interesting question. Looking at model track guidence, 21L (Tammy) and 93L (spun off part of Stan) appear to be on a colission track in about 48 hours. Will these two storms be able to survive such close proximity to each other?
--RC
Model Tracks: http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/
yeah, they'll do fine as close as they are. the systems are about 600-700 miles apart... and fairly weak. tammy is on the way up... 93L is moving more slowly. separation is not an issue. -HF
Edited by HanKFranK (Wed Oct 05 2005 10:14 PM)
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bobbutts
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: New Hampshire
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There's a chart that shows estimated winds from here:
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/data/pdfs/CharleyPSDA.pdf
figure 3
You can easily see how compact he was with Cape Coral well outside the area of strongest winds.
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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I just ran a run through of the models...there seem to be lots of closed lows forming over the next week - I wonder how many of these are real?
93L, remnants of Stan, moving north.
94L, tropical wave, moving NW
Low with associated circulation forming south of Cuba toward the end of the week as seen on
Low with associated circulation forming just east of the Caribbean as seen on
And there are a couple other lows and circulation centers poping up on other models, though none looking significant yet. We might see a busy week of systems (let's hope they are weak).
--RC
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Colleen A.
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I, too, cannot keep up with all of these storms...isn't Tammy like the 4th or 5th one to just "bubble" up this year? I saw that piece of energy that broke away from Stan this morning and thought, "Uh-oh". Than I though, "NAH!" 
Having just watched some of the local news channels, what caught my eye was that most of the spaghetti models have it moving right into Central Florida. Unless it has a forward speed like Tammy, it could have just enough time to get to T.S. status -- although they are talking about wind shear, don't know how strong it is or what effect it will have on 93L. I would imagine that no matter what, it will bring a ton of rain for the West Coast of Florida.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Jane219ga
Registered User
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Loc: Valrico, FL
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Well, I am in Valrico and it has been dry here for a month. Got a wee bit of rain with Tammy yesterday and the day before. I think we need some rain to tide us over for the upcoming dry months.
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HanKFranK
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Loc: Graniteville, SC
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looks like tammy will landfall as a 45kt tropical storm at cumberland island, ga around 8pm local. the forecast track taking it nw keeps looking goofy and hopefully they'll adjust it right with the next cycle. center of the storm may pass close to here late morning tomorrow, i'm thinking. we stand to get a couple inches of rain overnight and tomorrow morning. haven't seen any real wind reports, but st simons and savannah should get a good squall or two in the next few hrs.. maybe some TS force gusts. kinda doubt any TS force winds will encroach on land, but they're definitely occurring off the ga coast right now.
as for 93L... the upper trough digging on its western side has really swept into what looked like a formative low earlier. there's still a sharp bend in the surface wind flow northeast of cancun... which should migrate ne towards sw florida and potentially form something over the next day or two. then again the energy from this system may refocus further southeast in the nw caribbean. synoptic pattern looks right for another formation, but i'm not buying into that nne track anymore.. best bet is either s. florida... and if something crosses there it will probably turn north and head for the eastern carolinas. i very much doubt that more than a tropical storm would cross florida by the weekend. it is worth noting that most of the globals show something trapped east of the se us after the weekend. this will either be a system or a bunch of energy that gets caught under the next ridge and may try to develop as well. the processes forcing this pattern are set to repeat, so we're by no means done after this week.
actually a pretty good shot that the 94L system will act up if it can gain a little latitude. long term track would tend to be nw, slowly. it's way out there and an atypical thing for a system that far east in october to bother the continent. the upper low north of there is a longshot at a cold-to-warm core conversion system, but only showing the slightest of tendencies in that direction.
HF 2242z05october
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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker
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Man, it was hot and humid in Central Florida today !!
Except for the cloud cover, you would never even know a tropical system was
nearby. Sure could have used more rain here.
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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
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Loc: Polk County, Florida
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" i very much doubt that more than a tropical storm would cross florida by the weekend "
Do you promise? My family has already devoured the canned goods I bought for hurricane season and now the prices are up more than 30 cents or more on everything. I made the mistake of buying edible food during the hurricane tax free week here in Florida.
Many of us who work at fixed incomes are experiencing the gas crunch and saving food budget by consuming what is on hand, holding out and praying for divine escape from a media event.
Surely we can find it within ourselves to say that the possibility of a significant storm event will escape Central Florida this year Right?
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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laureg
Verified CFHC User
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Loc: Port St. Lucie, FL
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Hey everyone, just wanted to pop in and say this is my first ever post. Have learned a lot this hurricane season; probably know enough now to keep me thoroughly alarmed at all times...but very thankful to have been able to found you all and really appreciative of all the great information. Have even chuckled at the occasional posting drama.
Watching that system to the southeast of me and hoping it doesn't wreck up my weekend.
And...here's hoping the rest of the season is just a bunch of wimpy 'fish spinners'...
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
Surely we can find it within ourselves to say that the possibility of a significant storm event will escape Central Florida this year Right?
Hopefully. It looks like a "significant storm event" is not on your horizon this week, anyway. 93L is really looking sad this evening - the moisture is going to move around the ULL before it ever has a chance to develop now, it looks like. So, that's one less name that the will have to use this year.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
looks like tammy will landfall as a 45kt tropical storm at cumberland island, ga around 8pm local.
Per the 7pm CT Intermediate Advisory:
Doppler radar and surface observations indicate that the center of
Tammy moved inland near Mayport Florida within the past hour. At 8
PM EDT...0000z...the center was estimated near latitude 30.5 north
...Longitude 81.6 west...very near Jacksonville Florida.
Looks like it took a left turn at the last minute (where have I heard that before?)
well, it'll go up like ten miles west of cumberland. i probably was figuring the center in the wrong place by radar. -HF
Could be, Hank... although, looking at IR, it's moving perpendicular to the coast now....or am I losing my mind?
Edited by Hugh (Thu Oct 06 2005 01:30 AM)
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Yikes
Verified CFHC User
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St. Simons has had 12" of rain in the last 3 days, thus far today 3.25". Strong intermittent rain bands, estimated at 4-6" of rain per hour. Winds relatively calm except right along the coastline. Extremely high tides due in part to the nor'easter we have been experiencing in addition to Tammy. Hoping for a relatively calm night.
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Clark
Meteorologist
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Not quite so sure we'll get something out of 93L. If it happens, I think it'll be the perturbation currently in the NW Caribbean as opposed to the main feature heading toward Florida. The upper-level environment just isn't terribly conducive to tropical development; anything that does form, I think, is more likely to be of a dubious tropical nature at best. Wouldn't be surprised to see something subtropical or form out of that, really.
Tammy is also of dubious tropical nature. Recon has found an ever-eroding temperature gradient inside versus outside of the storm -- currently even -- and earlier reported a flat temperature gradient that has continued to get flatter. The strongest winds are being found well away from the center in the NE quadrant, generally 50-100mi away from the center. The cyclone phase analyses from all available models imply a hybrid structure with only a shallow warm core. Given the satellite appearance and the available data, I don't think Tammy is a tropical cyclone and is instead a subtropical storm. However, that has little bearing on what we'll get out of the system, just that the landfall area will see little in the way of significant weather while areas well-removed from the storm center are going to see the brunt of the storm. I do think Tammy will start to pivot to the NW and WNW and slow down with time; the ridge to the north still remains, the trough projected to swing through is still well to the west, and the storm is at the extent of the upper-low now. Think this one ends up somewhere between Albany, GA and the Savannah River tomorrow.
94L...not too keen on its impacts. That deep upper level trough will kill it if it gains too much latitude and unless the pattern significantly changes in the tropics/subtropics, it's a goner by 50W no matter what happens. I don't really see the pattern changing, so unless it gets its act together shortly it's likely just another depression for the record books at best. The low way up there at 40N/20-25W...those happen on occasion, not a likely candidate for anything interesting. Should slide south and sit there for the next few days, though. The upper low over the subtropical central Atlantic similarly is not likely to result in a whole lot, though the develops something along the convergence zone to its south and drives it toward the north and northwest. Not buying that yet, just like the CV storm it's been advertising.
Anything we get close-in in the short term is likely to be another Michael (from last year) at best -- a hybrid system that moves at a fairly decent clip but brings a couple-few inches of rain to some area. That's the end result from Tammy and the likely end result from 93L...I just think the environment is more conducive to hybrid/extratropical development, particularly as that upper trough approaches from the central US, than anything tropical. Time will tell.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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just got off the phone with parents.... there is st. mary's... really in kings bay....(sub base).... winds are light and just shifted in the last 30mins... they said most of the yards around the area are underwater (6inches or so)... the ditches are very full and it just quit raining in the last 15 mins or so...told them i was tired or seeing storms in the GOM... so i sent them one.... *L* 
anyway looks like south florida in for some rain next!!!
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
Anything we get close-in in the short term is likely to be another Michael (from last year) at best -- a hybrid system that moves at a fairly decent clip but brings a couple-few inches of rain to some area. That's the end result from Tammy and the likely end result from 93L...I just think the environment is more conducive to hybrid/extratropical development, particularly as that upper trough approaches from the central US, than anything tropical. Time will tell.
I agree, Clark... there is lots of incredibly dry air in the western GOM, and 93L seems to have gotten the punch squeezed out of it rather severely this afternoon. Still seems like we'll get some rain from it in the panhandle, but only if the ULL moves out of the way. Is that still looking possible at all? Watching the WV loop, it looks like the ULL isn't budging. Also, I notice on the WV loop and the JAX radar over the last hour or two that Tammy isn't moving as far north as it was earlier, relatively so anyway. Am I seeing things? Is there a chance it could get pushed back south?
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Loc: Florida
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I just looked at the visibles for 93L. If you hit the "NWS Fronts" box it almost appears that this system is *trying* to get itself together tonight. Yes, it's true that all the convection is to the north and east of it, but Tammy didn't look all that great yesterday either. My eyes may be deceiving me, but it also appears that it's trying to work itself down to the surface.
Please keep in mind that I am not predicting that a major hurricane will hit the west coast of Florida this weekend...no alarm sirens going off with this post. However, I wouldn't be surprised if this becomes classified as a T.D. before hitting land. I think people (besides us) who hear "a tropical depression" think "Ah, well, no biggie". They forget that even a tropical low or a tropical depression can cause major problems with rains and flooding.
And after the way this hurricane season has gone, anything is possible. 
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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HanKFranK
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safe to say your pop has something to with missile subs, then? probably a really wet night around my old stomping grounds up in hinesville tonight. if the storm does in fact carry its convection with it as it weakens and curves left into the low level flow, should train rainbands over south carolina all day tomorrow. i've got a hunch the deep convection shears off and keeps riding north overnight, but we'll see.
i'm a little more optimistic about 94L's chances than clark... the sharpening upper trough to its west should induce the diffluent/ridging aloft deal over it as it trudges nw. it may slingshot left around it in a few days if it gets close enough to the chunk of ridge poised to set up in the central atlantic early next week.
93L has had a serious shear/dry air intrusion and i have nothing to add to clark's analysis. if anybody's been worrying you about a hurricane in the eastern gulf during the rest of the week i've got some prime arizona swampland for sale they're welcome to purchase. i'm more concerned that part of it feeds into a baroclinic type system that may develop near south florida or east of florida during the next couple of days... a good pulse should come up this oncoming trough and if something tropical forms then it may end up clipping the eastern carolinas or new england (not your cue to go nuts, ryan). then again listening to clark's analysis of how tammy has been dubiously tropical there's not much reason whatever comes up won't be just a frontal trough.
in the long range euro ukmet.. you get the picture, all of them.. have disturbed weather strung from the western caribbean to off the southeast. the period of unrest is likely to keep our eyeballs glued through the first half of october.
by the way, stan may make a comeback off the mexican riviera tomorrow. i'm going to send the hate mail if they give it a pacific name... it's still stan, dammit. stan has put in its papers for retirement already, actually... it came about timed with a westerly pacific moisture surge and really rained on central america. latest reports number around 120 dead. deforested hillslopes are probably as culpable as heavy rains with these fatalities, i'm guessing.
HF 0110z06october
Edited by HanKFranK (Thu Oct 06 2005 01:11 AM)
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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
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Loc: Polk County, Florida
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You have that right Colleen. People forget or do not realize that in Florida, we can get tropical force winds in an afternoon thunderstorm and that Tropical Depressions can throw very destructive tornados especially if the surrounding relative pressures are sharply different in intensity.
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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