damejune2
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 237
Loc: Torrington, CT
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I checked the models again and it seems they have moved west a little since this morning and last night. Looks as though maybe and thats a big maybe, this thing might just go further north before recurving towards Florida. Just my observation though - take it with a grain of salt; i am not a pro.
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Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)
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damejune2
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 237
Loc: Torrington, CT
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Exactly, it's not moving at all which means it could decide to start moving more north now or continue west...it's a waiting game.
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Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)
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Lysis
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Loc: Hong Kong
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Damejune, look for general trends within the models, not just at the most current graphics. Keep in mind that being the most up to date solution does not necessarily imply the most accuracy. The , for example, has been somewhat consistent with the last three runs, oscillating more with intensity and speed than location, I think. Check out the 06Z , which took it through the Yucatan straight and landfalls somewhere north of Sarasota. Granted, it does like to nudge the storm west more and more with each run.
The cyclone’s eventual landfall is way out of the good timeframe for these things anyway , so there really isn’t much to say at this juncture.
This is going to be a painful wait, methinks.
EDIT: To answer your below question, you can do this in the ‘initial time column’. Scroll down and pick whatever one you want; 2005101612, 06, 00, etc (they do a new one every six hours).
Be careful with the , which is a limited area baroclinic model. To get the super detailed images of the hurricane's eyewall and crap like that, they have to focus on a small area, as it would be too time-consuming to render the entire basin. The different grids of focus are designated by storm name, so be sure to pick TD24, not the east pacific thing. 
Edited by Lysis (Sun Oct 16 2005 07:38 PM)
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Jamiewx
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 371
Loc: Orlando, Florida
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Just a snippet here from NWS TBW AFD
"THERE IS GREAT UNCERTAINTY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD DUE TO TD 24. CURRENT FORECAST HAS A HURRICANE
(WHICH WOULD BE NAMED ) JUST OFF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA BY
FRIDAY MORNING. BEYOND THAT MOST LONG RANGE MODELS CURVE IT TO THE
NORTHEAST AND TAKE IT SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SOMETIME
OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT THERE IS VERY LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT AS
TO WHAT EXACTLY WILL HAPPEN. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND CONTINUE TRENDING TOWARD A WETTER FORECAST IF
THESE SOLUTIONS CONTINUE."
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"Climate is what you expect, weather is what you get"
- Robert A. Heinlein
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damejune2
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 237
Loc: Torrington, CT
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Gotcha. But i checked what you were saying and the models don't give an option that brings the storm close to land. How do i advance it to that point, like landfall north of sarasota? The farthest i get is 144 hrs which is right near the coast. North of sarasota is where i am at so i hope that solution doesn't come to fruition.
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Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)
Edited by damejune2 (Sun Oct 16 2005 07:24 PM)
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StormHound
Weather Guru
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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We're stretching the outer limits of the models by looking at things 144 and 168 hrs out. Any model that far out is really not very practical for storm forecasting anyway. Looking that far out, one has to assume climatology and the general setup at the end of the model period. All of that suggests that potential would be heading NE or NNE by that time. So take your favorite model, and extrapolate out the general area from the end of the model following the general path given from the preceding 48 hours.
Basically, if this thing develops, one would expect it to head perhaps a bit west, then N then NE. That puts the eastern side of the Gulf Of Mexico most in play, with Florida being the highest odds. That said, the odds aren't all that great of a Florida hit at this point, the odds are just better for Florida than anywhere else right now.
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Storm Hound
Computer Geek
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weatherwatcher2
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 97
Loc: Parrish florida
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Does anyone have a good link to spaghetti models for ? Greatly appreciated.
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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Based on what i seen with recon.... and now the 5pm confirms... still a TD....
...AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE DEPRESSION HAS NOT STRENGTHENED...
REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...17.7 N... 79.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 2 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB.
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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bobbutts
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Loc: New Hampshire
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spaghetti model
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_24.gif
another shift to the west long range from the on the 5 update
I'm wondering what that would translate to after 120hrs.. a more perpendicular path to the fl west coast or perhaps somewhere on the N Gulf?
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weatherwatcher2
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: Parrish florida
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By the looks of the models it appears the northern gulf but obviously way to early to tell. Weve faired really well so far!
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crpeavley
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 26
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Looking at the freshly released 18Z , the only thing that has changed from last night's runs is the time of projected impact, from an early Sat. to a late Mon/Tues event. Otherwise, the west coast of Fl. remains the primary area of concern.
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Lee-Delray
Weather Master
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The only I get is the 12 and it shows it going to New Orleans. Please note that I am a rank amature reading these things and could very well be making a huge mistake.
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Lee-Delray
Weather Master
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I just saw the 18Z and it looks like the model slows it and moves it further west then the 12Z
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
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Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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Yes, the 18Z run shows it going over the Yucatan. If that confirms over time, I'll feel better since I'm going to Grand Cayman on Thursday to do inventory through the 30th. I really wouldn't want to be away from my family while they were facing a hurricane.
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Michael
PWS
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Lee-Delray
Weather Master
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I agree, I'm going to Louisiana to assess damage to some property. I don't need any more floods
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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
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Loc: Polk County, Florida
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Try cleaning out your old cache and then looking at the various hours out. Remember also that some of the moderators and posters on here have access to data due to their professions that we lay-people do not. There is not a lot of data available to the general public without a fee. Now and then some one will publish something that they themselves purchased but they are not really supposed to. Any way, those models given at the end of the front page are considered to be experimental and are just a taste of the data used to actually determine the direction and intensity of these hurricanes. That is why the posters who know what is going on are very careful not to give out specific information as fact because it is not complete information.
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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Lee-Delray
Weather Master
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So, the models we see (GFS) when we click on a link aren't complete; they go out 144 hours? I was looking at the trend of the runs too. Again, I repeat for anyone reading my posts, I have no experience with this, I'm just making asumptions with my untrained eye.
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Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 318
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No way this storm could head for Texas, right? If it does get into the gulf we are looking at the northeastern Gulf, correct?
Not that I'd wish a storm on anyone but we are still cleaning up from the last one that hit here. This has been an
interesting season, hasn't it?
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dave foster
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 73
Loc: UK
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The way it's been looking this last 24 hours it could just as easily fizzle out, but I don't really think we'll be that lucky.
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Dave Foster
http://www.ascn92.dsl.pipex.com
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Tazmanian93
Weather Master
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Posts: 495
Loc: Tampa
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You could also use this site
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/...5101612!!!step/
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Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
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Ed
Edited by Tazmanian93 (Mon Oct 17 2005 12:53 AM)
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