Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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Here is a standard link that is available on the NOAA site. It may be of some help. The is usually available about 4 hours or so after the 'run' time, i.e., the 00Z would normally be available shortly after 04Z. Keep in mind that after about 4 or 5 days the forecast accuracy really is subject to considerable change.
ED
NCEP Caribbean Model Output
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weatherwatcher2
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The second link is scary! I wonder how accurate that one is?
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Kevin
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Hey--long time since I've made a post. I've been pretty busy with college apps and senior year, but I have been watching the tropics as well.
For TD24...I'd say that the 18Z shows a reasonable scenario with an eventual sharp turn to the right. To echo what others have been saying, it is still too early to make a call on this storm. There are still many model runs as well as much time to watch TD24.
I suppose we could see an intense hurricane out of this eventually. At the same time, the very slow strengthening that has recently occured isn't overly impressive. We'll see...
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weatherwatcher2
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The 2nd one predicts Central Florida on Sunday!
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Lee-Delray
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BAMM Medium & Depp now show it going almost due west into the yucatan over the next 5 days. That's going to be some right turn into Florida.
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weatherwatcher2
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how accurate have they been? So whats all; the hype with the extreme right hook?
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Lee-Delray
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I just say it to note that the models keep shifting further west. The shows it heading west into the Yukatan and then a right across the GOM in central Florida a week from today. The storm needs to be watched.
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charlottefl
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I realize that making a sharp right hook from the yucatan is not the same as being there already and heading east. But just a reminder that Hurricane Mitch in 98 after it split into 2 pieces one re-emerged into the bay of campeche, became tropical storm mitch and landfalled near Ft. Myers, with a similar large scale pattern in place, but I think the real key here is time since the thing is barely moving I don't think the models have gotten a good handle on it yet.
Hurricane '04 (Port Charlotte)
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CaneTrackerInSoFl
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Quote:
BAMM Medium & Depp now show it going almost due west into the yucatan over the next 5 days. That's going to be some right turn into Florida.
BAM Models aren't all too good with track.
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Genesis
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how accurate have they been? So whats all; the hype with the extreme right hook?
BAMx and LBARx are fairly simple models (compared to some of the more recent dynamic models) and they tend to be less accurate - especially the further out you go.
The various BAMx models look at different layers in the atmosphere for steering information, which is why they often come up with VERY different tracks. The problem with relying on them is that a storm isn't steered by the same layers of the atmosphere at different points in its life, and at different strengths .....
Its too early to know what's going to happen with this one, but the synoptic pattern at this time of the year tends to support recurvature as storms come northward, and it also tends to support a general northward motion over time. The reason is that as fall progresses troughs tend to make it further down in latitude, and they tend to be stronger - in the summer they almost never make it all the way to the gulf - in the fall they often do.
First, we have to see this thing gets its act together. I'm in the camp that says it probably will, but I'm still on the fence in terms of what I think about an ultimate track. Note that the 's "track" is basically just up the middle of a big BLOB - its not until they (and everyone else) are able to come up with a better handle on what they think is going to occur in the atmosphere that will steer what this turns into, and the ultimate strength that this thing has at that time, that a better prognostication of where its going to go can be made.
IMHO anyone from the Keys to roughly NO needs to be paying attention to this thing right now - that's obviously a HUGE swath of real estate, but looking in on this system at least daily right now would not be a bad idea. In the next 3-4 days a significant part of that area can probably be eliminated from consideration - but right now that would not be prudent.
My best guess right now is that IF it develops as expected the most likely path is east of north from the Yucatan channel - that is based on the synoptics and climatology. Looking at the current upper-air pattern there is no solid support for anything more specific than that which I can find - but I don't do this for a living, I'm a hobbyist......
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weatherwatcher2
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Excellent post Genesis. Thank You! We will keep a close eye out.. I wonder when it will start moving?
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danielw
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Great explanation, and thanks.
Part of the reason in the further westward track is that the TD is drifting toward the West.
See the "XTRAP" line on the SWFMD plots. XTRAP is the direction of storm movement over ' x ' time frame.
One of the above posts explained the other question. In regards to the "Right Turn, Clyde". A cool front has passed throught the Lower Mississippi Valley and is currently along a Mobile-Panama City-Jacksonville Line. As this front pushes south, it should or could act as the 'deflector' for any low level tropical system.
Low level being a TD or TS. Anything above TS status has a tend to overrun a weak cool front.
Further explanation is probably better left to one of the METs.
As they deal with this daily and I am not qualified to make that call.
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sara33
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There seems to be a pretty large blow up of color on the recent Water Vapor. Is Is that where the "center of circulation" is. Thanks
Christine 
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SirCane
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This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard
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Direct Hits:
Hurricane Erin (1995) 100 mph
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http://www.hardcoreweather.com
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weatherwatcher2
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can you share your thought behind that? Thanks!
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danielw
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Quote:
IMHO anyone from the Keys to roughly NO needs to be paying attention to this thing right now - that's obviously a HUGE swath of real estate, but looking in on this system at least daily right now would not be a bad idea. In the next 3-4 days a significant part of that area can probably be eliminated from consideration - but right now that would not be prudent.
My best guess right now is that IF it develops as expected the most likely path is east of north from the Yucatan channel - that is based on the synoptics and climatology. Looking at the current upper-air pattern there is no solid support for anything more specific than that which I can find - but I don't do this for a living, I'm a hobbyist......
I'm with you on the area of concern and I'm a hobbyist.
If you live along the Gulf Coast, from New Orleans to Key West, and up the Eastern FL Coast to Jacksonville.
Please keep a close eye on this one.
Charley-like behavior is not out of the question. Proximity to land, possible tracks and cool fronts all throw the models off to some degree.
If you aren't sure about your "Hurricane Kit" and it's contents. Give them a check in the next 24 hours.
Hopefully No One will need a kit. But just in case.
After being here through all of the 2004 season. And seeing and hearing what people went through.
I thought my kit was okay prior to . I had No Clue..believe me.
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typhoon_tip
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Good points...can I just add something?
I'd be real weary of biting onto any left adjustment (not that you are of course). The reason why she's shifted in the models (in my opinion) is because Pre-Wilma is a weak entity. She's very susceptible to slight perturbations in successive runs, regarding the nearer term.. Sparing the physics to describe, which will just give us all unnecessary headaches...it's sometimes tough to rap our minds around the concept that t-cyclones behave like a log floating in a river.. The heavier the log, the longer it takes to change the direction of its drift/momentum..
Although path of least resistance is always taken by these systems, if more momentum is stored and providing the counter current isn't too overwhelming (causing shear and such), they do need time to respond. That is why a strong hurricane (a heavier log), will often slow down or even stall completely before resuming a new heading; i.e, while their momentum in a given vector is exhausted. Pre-Wilma is a twig with virtually no momentum - only needed a slight variance in the ridge strength anticipation and she's summarily shunting west, and if those influences were already verifying, she'd certainly verify that way. (we are still talking about the prognostication)
However, in the long run she'll be stronger and the righter course is preferred. I'm fairly confident once she's established herself in truer form, the models will re-establish a righter course....probably sooner once they latch onto a her as a stemwinder. And, a lot of that is timing because the westerlies will be in the beginning stages of change right about the time she gets a social security number from the weather gods.
The fact that the runs are unanimously shifted left may be a bit disconcerting for NNE track enthusiasts.
However, I looked at it...we're talking all of a paltry 3-5dm so it is natural that a weaker gyre would be prone to wobble in track guidance accordingly to such small ridge tweaks... My personal experience in watching these things, if she bombs overnight and has a really strong vertical profile, she'll thumb those ridge ripplets in the model runs thereafter, and their track guidance will easily shift back right; notwithstanding that the climatalogical course for all hurricanes tend to have a right bias given enough time; notwithstanding the synoptics slated to evolve. (not saying she'll bomb of course). The upshot here is that the changes in the westerlies that are expected to impact the area with an opportunity to move her N and NNE, will also effectively disallow too too much left motion...
I was surprised that she did not really take off today... She's got very impressive U/A mechanics working in her favor and copious upper oceanic heat content to feast on... The reason after deeper eval is that she's got most of her convection in her outer bands and these are not allowing convergence to maximize coriolis driven angular momentum to her core; as the convective ingest only spirals a small distance before ascending... That is actually important because some of the ingest by the cyclone is actually being pulled from all directions, which is a disruption to centricity.. (Don't bother; it's not readily observable by sat. I've deduced this from the 5pm discussion and what I've learned in college). But, I have noticed a small but intense sub- -70C cloud top region very near the perceived axis of rotation so we may actually be on the threshold of an implosion - so to speak...
Correction: the perceived axis of rotation appears to be NE of where the current impressive, albeit small area of very intense convection is occurring; should this persist inside the large circumvellate, I suspect if possible we could have a center refix...
Edited by typhoon_tip (Mon Oct 17 2005 02:19 AM)
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Jamiewx
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Interesting Climatology Image from weatherunderground.
http://maps.wunderground.com/data/images/at200524_climo.gif
I have seen a couple of maps now suggesting that Florida would be the Climatologically favored target.
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lunkerhunter
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how can these two sources have such different data?
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The Force 2005
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