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Archives >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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Lance Wilson
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 23
Re: Wilma Continued [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #59573 - Wed Oct 19 2005 04:34 PM

LIstening to MSNBC, the MET there seems to think the Press Conference may just be to explain the model differences and that this is normal. May not see any major changes at all. Will see in about 10 minutes.

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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 570
Re: Wilma Continued [Re: Margie]
      #59574 - Wed Oct 19 2005 04:38 PM

check out this lapse rate:
I. 12 C/ 3059 m
J. 19 C/ 3051 m

i don't know how uniform that is around the storm thermodynamics but that's.....that's impressive. 26+' and your temperature plummets 8C!

Edited by typhoon_tip (Wed Oct 19 2005 04:47 PM)


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Steve H1
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 289
Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
Re: Wilma Continued [Re: Lance Wilson]
      #59575 - Wed Oct 19 2005 04:39 PM

OK, 18Z NAM run is further northj, staying just offshore of NE Yucatan, then nudges eastward.

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Lance Wilson
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 23
Re: Wilma Continued [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #59576 - Wed Oct 19 2005 04:39 PM

Quote:

check out this lapse rate:
I. 12 C/ 3059 m
J. 19 C/ 3051 m




What's that mean?


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tpratch
Moderator


Reged: Fri
Posts: 335
Loc: Maryland
Re: Wilma Continued [Re: Steve H1]
      #59577 - Wed Oct 19 2005 04:40 PM

My understanding of the "oops" part of the 2pm was that one of the models ingested bad data and it's affecting the models that build off of it (in part or total).

Is Clark around here hiding with extra insight?


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rmcinorlando
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 14
Re: Wilma Continued [Re: tpratch]
      #59578 - Wed Oct 19 2005 04:42 PM

I think that everyone is just holding their breath until after the news conference and the 5:00 NHC discussion and new track comes out.

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dave foster
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 73
Loc: UK
Re: Wilma Continued [Re: Lake Toho - Kissimmee]
      #59580 - Wed Oct 19 2005 04:43 PM

Thanks Tip and Lake Toho, that's just what I was looking for, a bit of constructive feedback.
And, yes, Toho hit the nail on the head when I mentioned inertia, didn't realise that Tropical Cyclones weren't affected by it. Great stuff..

--------------------
Dave Foster
http://www.ascn92.dsl.pipex.com


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tashina
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 13
Loc: Austin, TX
Re: Wilma Continued [Re: tpratch]
      #59581 - Wed Oct 19 2005 04:43 PM

CNN will be going to the NHC press conference as soon as it starts.

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Steve H1
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 289
Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
Re: Wilma Continued [Re: rmcinorlando]
      #59582 - Wed Oct 19 2005 04:43 PM

Can we get the new conference on line??

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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 570
Re: Wilma Continued [Re: Lance Wilson]
      #59583 - Wed Oct 19 2005 04:45 PM

Quote:

Quote:

check out this lapse rate:
I. 12 C/ 3059 m
J. 19 C/ 3051 m




What's that mean?




short and skinny...lapse rate: 'rate of change of temperature with height'
(I. 12 C/ 3059 m) - (J. 19 C/ 3051 m) = 7C in 8 meters... Or in none si terms, about 12F in just 26ft!


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Kattbyrde
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 10
Re: Wilma Continued [Re: tashina]
      #59584 - Wed Oct 19 2005 04:46 PM

Anyone have a link to listen online to the NHC press conference, since I'm still at work?

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swimaway19
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sat
Posts: 32
Loc: Safety Harbor, FL
Re: Wilma Continued [Re: Kattbyrde]
      #59585 - Wed Oct 19 2005 04:48 PM

5 pm advisory: 160 mph, 892mb, WNW @ 6 , it looks like it doesn't change the track much from before

--------------------
Chris
Swim Away, Swim Far Away....



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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: Wilma Continued [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #59586 - Wed Oct 19 2005 04:49 PM

That temperature difference is more reflective of the horizontal rather than vertical change in temperature, since one reading is taken in the eye (where it is warmer), while the other is the max temp found in the eyewall. Stronger storms will have larger differences between eye and eyewall temperatures.

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hurricanechantel
Registered User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1
Re: Wilma Continued [Re: swimaway19]
      #59587 - Wed Oct 19 2005 04:51 PM

Hi All--
I'm new to this forum but live near Tampa and have been tracking Wilma extensively the past few days. I've been a weather junkie for years. One of my favorite sites is Weather Underground... what do you all think of the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters??
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html


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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Re: Wilma Continued [Re: Kattbyrde]
      #59588 - Wed Oct 19 2005 04:51 PM

http://ccri.eonstreams.com/ccri_fl_tampa_wfla_am.asf

bottom line, more uncertainies....

the GFDL, which Max said is his best hurricane model has changed alot since this morning, slowed the motion down... and that has the NHC concerned...

Edited by Frank P (Wed Oct 19 2005 04:54 PM)


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Lance Wilson
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 23
Re: Wilma Continued [Re: Frank P]
      #59589 - Wed Oct 19 2005 04:52 PM

Slowed down the approach, that is about it. Trying to figure out the change in models and wanted to announce why.

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charlottefl
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Mon
Posts: 94
Re: Wilma Continued [Re: Lance Wilson]
      #59590 - Wed Oct 19 2005 04:54 PM

When is the next run of the GFDL?

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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 570
Re: Wilma Continued [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #59591 - Wed Oct 19 2005 04:56 PM

Quote:

That temperature difference is more reflective of the horizontal rather than vertical change in temperature, since one reading is taken in the eye (where it is warmer), while the other is the max temp found in the eyewall. Stronger storms will have larger differences between eye and eyewall temperatures.




true, good point!


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komi
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sat
Posts: 43
Re: Wilma Continued [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #59593 - Wed Oct 19 2005 04:59 PM

what i think, is too dangerous storm to just say, this will miss florida ..

they probably want people prepared, but something is changed .. HNC moved little on south ...


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lunkerhunter
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 219
Loc: Fort Myers, FL 26.58N 81.78W
Re: Wilma Continued [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #59594 - Wed Oct 19 2005 05:00 PM

the 7C eyewall temp diff is much lower than this AM when it was 12C or more.

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