Rdietch
Weather Hobbyist
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Quote:
The 18Z (only through 72 hours so far) appears to be still moving this storm as before. Around same position too, maybe hinting at slightly more northerly track but still moving the storm.
Looks the same to me as the 12Z maybe a little south but that is what i see.
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Clark
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06z and 18Z , I believe, are only run out to 72hr. This isn't uncommon, given the amount of computational power it takes to run a model and the need for the resources elsewhere. For instance, the Canadian model is only run out to 72hr at the 12Z run as their computational facilities are not as strong as the Navy's or 's.
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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
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So far the 18Z still appears to be on Koolaid. Its moving the storm west to Cozumel and then turns it back directly east (about ENE) south of cuba. It hints that this will never make it to Florida, rather under it and for the most part under Cuba. Kinda odd, but hey I am game.
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Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!
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Steve H1
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
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Clark, how about a response to "where you think its going?" The is interesting and all, but I think we would like to know your thoughts on track. Thanks.
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rmcinorlando
Verified CFHC User
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Hey Clark, what's your take on the crazy computer models?
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tpratch
Moderator
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Loc: Maryland
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Clark. Do you have any idea what parameters would be needed to be given to a distributed computing model of the atmosphere? Is there some public access resource to get all of the data points required?
If SETI at home is any indication, I believe it's completely feasible that we could actually do a 3 dimensional highly-complex model and have it handed out to millions of eager users...
Even if it's just hundreds-of-thousands of folks willing to knock out a few packets, I believe it's an idea whose time has come...
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Rasvar
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Someone correct me if I am wrong, does the 18Z ingest as much new data or is it a more restricted run? I had this impression that only 0Z and 12Z are full data ingests. I could be way off.
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Jim
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Lee-Delray
Weather Master
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So really what everyone is syaing, its a wait and see for the 18Z model runs?
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zacker20
Weather Watcher
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I actually think the latest model runs are not too far-fetched. Granted, 1650 nautical miles difference between forecast points is crazy. But conditions in the atmosphere have changed rather drastically since the last run.
If you look at the nation's water vapor image, you can see that the strong upper-level low that was supposed to bring to the north has moved a lot faster and stayed further to the north. It has not moved further to the south as the models expected. I think it is safe to say with high confidence that this particular low will not be having an influence on .
However, there is another trough that is sagging further to the south, but it is much weaker and it's still very uncertain if that trough will be able to pick up to the north. It is most likely that it will not make it in time. So, a landfall directly into the Yucatan and then stalling out is not far-fetched at all. Due to these changing upper-level conditions, it may be the most likely scenario.
But, if that trough is able to push it to the north, it will not force the track further north, in fact I believe it will go even further south. Because the storm will not be picking up speed like it was forecasted earlier, once it emerges into the gulf of mexico it will immediately be picked up by that trough and pushed directly East, skirting the northern coast of Cuba and then making a direct pass through the Florida Keys. This WILL be a Southwest (becoming more unlikely) or extreme Southern Florida (becoming more likely) if it is picked up by a trough.
So, there it is folks, in a nutshell. There is still a lot of uncertianity and it all depends on timing. If the trough is not able to make it down in the carribean to pick up before it makes landfall in the Yucatan, then there won't be much of affect on Florida at all. But it looks like Central Florida will not be dealing with much of an impact. Maybe tropical storm force winds at the worst, but that is highly unlikely in my mind.
I'm Zack by the way, studying Meterology at the University of South Florida. 
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leetdan
Weather Guru
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Loc: Osceola County
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Quote:
I'm Zack by the way, studying Meterology at the University of South Florida.
Welcome
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[witty phrase here]
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Sher
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It is been a very windy, rainy day here in Grand Cayman. Wind Gusts up to 47MPH earlier. was at her closest around 5AM this morning. Lots of wobbles...heads west loops back around south/north/west--with very slow average WNW movement. She looks like she is fighting a stronger force and just can't seem to break through.......
Anyone have ideas on and BAM? They look a bit far fetched!!
S
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
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Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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Given the rapid change in forecast tracks, it is probably a safe bet to say anyone from Mexico to Main should watch closely! Given the triple eyewalls it seems likely we have seen her peak - for now. Weakening to Category 4 is probable during the next 12 hours. However,one the has completed, there should be time for restrengthening before reaches the coast. I think we will see a Yucatan landfall, and this will probably occur as recurves, so the eye may not get too far inland before re-emerging offshore. Of course, given the model solutions given by todays runs, this is just a guess Regardless, with such a strong and dangerous hurricane anyone in its path is gonna need all the help they can get.
Regards to you all, and prayers to those in her way!
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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Margie
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Truthfully, I have found the intensity forecast, and the intensity changes of the last 36 hours to be of overwhelming interest, while understanding that of course the need to resolve the track forecast is critical.
Excluding the wrongly-extrapoloated 900mb pressure for the 2pm advis, it appears that did likely continue to strengthen beyond the time the 884/881 readings were taken, possibly with additional pressure drops (cloud tops continued to get colder right into the morning hours, showing a dramatic increase in convection). Not only that, but she was able to maintain a very low pressure throughout the morning and afternoon hours, and even the extremely low pressure of 892mb right up to the beginning of the (recon started a third pass right now & is close to the center, and I imagine pressure will finally have risen, looking at the wv imagery).
The small eyewall continued to maintain its integrity for a very long time, even though the few of us still awake after midnight assumed wrongly from the beginning that a 2nm-wide eyewall was not possible to maintain and would implode. continued in roughly a steady state with an overall pulsing of convection for many hours.
This is all extraordinary, and even though almost 24 hours have passed since intensity started ramping up, I am still going through the day in a bubble of amazement.
I want to reiterate again that I believe that the opportunity exists for another intense round of strengthening (the one I originally had proposed), even with a continued westward trend, into tonight and through tomorrow, depending on how quickly the progresses. If the track turns at all east, back towards Cuba or just north of Cuba, or stalls, the strengthening could continue, between s.
Recon update: still finding powerful winds in the NE quad, on this pass a gust to 143kt.
Latest vortex... still maintaining 892mb, eyewall still closed 4nm, even with temp diff down to 3deg.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
Edited by Margie (Wed Oct 19 2005 10:11 PM)
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dave foster
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Quote:
I prefer to think of the "storm spinning like a top" analogy -- spin a top and and let it move fast down a path and it'll wobble/spin some.
Precisely, and I believe that is what I have been observing for the last 8 to 10 hours, a top 'toppling'. I knew I'd seen that kind of erratic behaviour somewhere before. That's the reason I decided to make my 'theoretical' post prior to the 11pm. I postulated that would continue to topple more and more frequently along her track, giving up energy on each cycle until she de-intensified and slowed sufficiently for her to start afresh. I pre-supposed that the toppling was initiated by a breakdown of the eye with a consequent loss of energy due to the revised temperature differential within the core.
A sort of theory based upon my observations for what it's worth. Comments?
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Dave Foster
http://www.ascn92.dsl.pipex.com
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Lee-Delray
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Zack thanks for the analysis. My question is if it did what you say what do you think the intensity will be? If it goes over N. Cuba won't that tear it up a bit?
Edited by Lee-Delray (Wed Oct 19 2005 10:07 PM)
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Colleen A.
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Yes, I think you hit the nail right on the head. I would not be surprised at all if the next run of the shows the same solution.
Our local met, Denis Phillips on ABC News TB, seems to really be buying into this becoming a non-event for central Florida.
I don't know if I'd go that far, but I have to admit that what was there yesterday is not there today, and may become another Mitch.
Not what we want to hear right now, but it's realistic...to a point. I still have a problem with a "mere" (LOL) 1650 mile difference in the models. We'll just have to wait and see what the next model runs brings us.
Another "wait and see" storm for Florida, which is not doing anything for my stomach's nerves. 
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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iuhoosiers
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In the past couple of frames it looks like might be making more of a turn to the NW than WNW. Any thoughts on this???
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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist
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Quote:
Couple of things...
1) That isn't a true vertical lapse rate -- it's the temperature differential inside and outside of the eye, a measure of how strong the storm is. Generally, the greater the difference between the two, the more efficient the heating aloft within the eye is and thus the stronger the storm. had a differential of something like 17C at its peak intensity; didn't quite get there. Maximum efficiency would be for the lower number to plummet while the eye temperature reaches that of the SSTs...generally we don't expect that and only expect about 30% efficiency from most storms.
2) Microwave data for eyewall replacement cycles -- best bet is the 85GHz products, I find...look for "moat" regions outside/away from the center with banding features forming into curved/circular shapes just outside of that. That tends to be a pretty good indicator of an eyewall cycle.
Would not be surprised to see some reintensification after this eyewall cycle is done...some theories are being floated out there about the trochoidal oscillations being a function of the inner eyewall rotating about the outer eyewall. They are with merit, but the exact cause is unclear. I prefer to think of the "storm spinning like a top" analogy -- spin a top and and let it move fast down a path and it'll wobble/spin some. Nevertheless, cool to watch.
...right, aware of that... i had momentarily had a "lapse" of rememerance regarding the decode of the vortex message... but i did already clarify that... thanks!
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
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Loc: Oklahoma
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The 18Z is very similar to the 12Z through 120 hours... though stalling right on the Yucutan coast compared to stalling it further inland. It is about 6 hours faster in bringing the system into the Keys and S. Florida by Sunday evening. While the 18Z models will be what has to go on for the 11pm forecast update, the real crucial model data will be the 00Z model runs, which will have another set of radiosonde data to ingest. There is typically a lot more new data to ingest at 00Z and 12Z than at 06Z and 18Z, for those who are unfamiliar.
Edited by Thunderbird12 (Wed Oct 19 2005 10:29 PM)
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zacker20
Weather Watcher
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Quote:
Zack thanks for the analysis. My question is if it did what you say what do you think the intensity will be? If it goes over N. Cuba won't that tear it up a bit?
Yes, by the time it emerges between the eastern tip of the Yucatan and the western tip of Cuba, it will be considerably weaker. The calls for it being a Cat 4 at the time, I am going to say it will be a strong Category 3. In the next 12-24 hours, the (Eyewall Replacement Cycle) will be complete. The pinhole eye we are seeing now will collapse and grow larger. During that time, will begin a weakening trend. It is most likely that by the 11 PM Advisory, will already be downgraded to a Category 4. At that time, IF (and I put a big emphasis on IF) the storm begins to track to the north and emerge into the Gulf of Mexico, it will be encountering shear from the upper-level trough and colder water temperatures. The SSTs in the Gulf of Mexico are running about 3-4 degrees cooler than the carribean. So, as it accelerates eastward, it will begin feeling the affects of that shear and weaken rapidly. I'm calling for it to be a strong Category 2/minimal Category 3 intensity if it makes it into the Florida Keys. I just don't see holding Category 4 intensity for 48-72 hours. The conditions ahead of it are not favorable for that kind development.
However, if it heads directly into the Yucatan, it will be CATASTROPHIC for that area. It won't weaken much if it continues to head in a West Northwest motion.
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