swimaway19
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 32
Loc: Safety Harbor, FL
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Is the A98 model a statistical model like the LBAR? They both seem to be outliers taking it right to Tampa
http://skeetobiteweather.com/picservice.asp?t=m&m=24
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Chris
Swim Away, Swim Far Away....
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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You can really make out a well defined outer eyewall: http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/ATL/24L.WILMA/tmi/tmi_85h/1degreeticks/thumb/Latest.html
(this image is more than 6 hours old, unfortunately)
Both WV and IR are showing a rather impressive seperation line appearing between the convection around the inner eye and the area inside the outer eye. It appears that the outer eye has established itself and that it is just a matter of time before the inner eye and associated convection vanishes.
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bigbelly
Registered User
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Posts: 5
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before commenting on the Models, make sure that you pay attention to the times. as only the and UKMET have the 5am data. A98 and LBAR were created at 00:39
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OrlandoDan
Weather Master
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Posts: 443
Loc: Longwood, FL
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Here is the models. The time date is in the legend at the top:
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_24.gif
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Looking at the water vapor loop right now... I see something kind of interesting. Depending upon where the new eye settles in when the is completed, we could see go from a 2nm pinhole eye at its maxima yesterday, to a huge eye later today. The storm appears right now to have extremely cold cloud tops in the outer bands of a doughnut-like structure, with an inner rim, and then a doughnut hole inside that inner rim. As thge doughnut hole (deep convection where the eye used to be) collapses, we could see the new eye take over there, and encompass the entire area... which would then be followed by a contraction of the then-large eye. The cyclic rotation of the LLC within this "doughnut" structure continues even this morning.
What does not continue - what has never developed, in fact - is the northward movement. In fact, most of the models I find now show landfall over the Yucatan. I find that VERY unsettling, because it is a sign to me that the first trough may indeed miss , and a second trough may be required to push the storm out of the GOM. Where that second trough sets up and where it ultimately deposits , I just don't know. The models say south Florida, but I still don't have confidence in that much of a right hook.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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MissBecky
Weather Guru
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Posts: 112
Loc: Ft. Myers, FL
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Quote:
Other than the Keys. Has anyone heard any additional evacuation plans from the counties?
Daniel the only other one I am aware of is Cape Coral here in Lee County. They have called for voluntary evacuations of low-lying neighborhoods and mobile homes.
Here is a link to our NBC station's website, with a list of evacuation information, cancellations, and closings, for many Southwest Florida counties
http://www.nbc-2.com/Wilma-Details.shtml
They also have emergency phone numbers listed, and all kinds of useful information for anyone in Southwest Florida.
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KiminCanada
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 13
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Do you all agree with the new 5 day cone....being up near Virginia on Tues now instead of Monday???
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OrlandoDan
Weather Master
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Posts: 443
Loc: Longwood, FL
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Very interesting that it has not made the northerly turn yet. This does not bode well for the Yucatan and Cozumel. Reeasoning on the track will undoubtedlu change today. What are the chances of a more northerly Florida landfall even later in the petiod than Monday?
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Ron Basso
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 267
Loc: hernando beach, FL
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006Z Models from CSU. I noticed the 00Z suite of globals are indicating a stall and then a second trough picking up the storm. I may have to eat crow based on my thoughts yesterday. Pretty fluid situation though with the and interaction with the westerlies. In wait and see mode but certianly looks as of now that extreme S FL may be hit hardest by this storm. There is one model (and it's not the LBAR!) that brings it through Tampa - the Navy's version of the (GFNL).
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early1.png
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RJB
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emackl
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 205
Loc: Indianapolis
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Interesting disco by the HPC this a.m. Worth a read:
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/preepd/preepd.html
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Steve H1
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 309
Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
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6z now keeps her offshore the Yucatan, has her hit SW Florida near Naples and exits her just east of Lake Okeechobee near Stuart. I believe this is a slight shift north for the . The key here is she's a bit slower, even moving offshore Florida. Also, the fact that it keeps her off the peninsula of the Yucatan could allow her to retain her strong structure. Avila alluded to her possibly not making landfall in his discussion ("heading toward the Yucatan.....for now"). Still pretty darned interesting. Cheers!!
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
Very interesting that it has not made the northerly turn yet. This does not bode well for the Yucatan and Cozumel. Reeasoning on the track will undoubtedlu change today. What are the chances of a more northerly Florida landfall even later in the petiod than Monday?
I'm more convinced than ever that any turn to the north won't happen until or very near landfall, or even after landfall. Looking at the overall pattern in the area, there are signs of a turn to the north I think, but they are over the BOC and the western Yucatan. This would go along with the GFNI's latest run mostly... and put Tampa in ground zero.
The cold cloud tops in the old eyewall are collapsing as I write this... unless something changes, new, 40nm eye should be formed by the 11am ET advisory, I think - which would fit in the 12-18 hour timeframe that an should last. What's that mean? Cancun could experience a cat 5 hurricane.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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flarrfan
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 19
Loc: Spring Hill FL
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I am a complete and total amateur and have never done this before, but colleagues in my office have heard me talk about the time I spend on this site and another site and frequently ask for my opinion on what will happen with a storm. Yesterday morning, I sent an e-mail to the office with my first forecast. I will send the following e-mail today:
Wilma forecast---10/20
No reason to change yesterday's forecast of Sunday Cat 2 landfall between Ft. Myers and Naples, based on a brush with the Yucatan, some slowing and weakening before the right turn, and increasing shear and cooler water on the path to Florida. Two IF's---If the entire center of circulation landfalls on the Yucatan, there could be even more weakening and slowing, allowing more time for the other weather patterns to push a Cat 1 further south toward the Keys on Monday. OTOH, if the storm makes a more substantial northward turn today and the center misses the Yucatan entirely, it could track farther north with less weakening before turning northeast and east. That could mean a Cat 3 landfall late Sunday/early Monday between Sarasota and Ft. Myers. More model divergence today than yesterday, due to lack of north turn so far and uncertainty about timing and Yucatan landfall effects, but will stick with the 10/19 prediction as still consistent with the midpoint of the more reliable models.
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Ed G
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 77
Loc: Clermont, Fl
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make darn sure to add to the note that you are only giving your own OPINION and that everyone should tune into the for accuarte forecasts.
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KC
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 87
Loc: Naples, FL
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Collier County called for voluntary evacs of those in low lying areas and mobile homes on Thursday. I believe I heard this morning that Sanibel had done the same. The Collier County Commission is meeting in emergency session at 3 this afternoon and I am sure they will declare a state of emergency and announce other plans at that time. Naples Daily News has an excellent site at www.naplesnews.com.
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jlauderdal
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 97
Loc: Fort Lauderdale, FLorida
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Quote:
6z now keeps her offshore the Yucatan, has her hit SW Florida near Naples and exits her just east of Lake Okeechobee near Stuart. I believe this is a slight shift north for the . The key here is she's a bit slower, even moving offshore Florida. Also, the fact that it keeps her off the peninsula of the Yucatan could allow her to retain her strong structure. Avila alluded to her possibly not making landfall in his discussion ("heading toward the Yucatan.....for now"). Still pretty darned interesting. Cheers!!
I think we need to be consider the of course but we have not seen real consistency for the last 18 hours so i think we need a two more runs of a consistent solution with regards to the american model, That said, i really like waht has been doing since the wacky run which is keep the ideathey ad with subtle changes. Very interesting day ahead with the and . other models have not had such big differences.
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Sheeper
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 62
Loc: Vero Beach, FL
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From the Treasure Coast it is expected that Indian River County, the City of Vero Beach and St Lucie counties will declare local state of emergency sometime later today. Although the 0500 updates have us being impacted sunday as opposed to saturday. Stll subject to change of course!
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Emergency Management Consultant & Trainer
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Steve H1
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 309
Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
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6z now inching north slightly. Has it exit the east coast near 27.4N/79.5W. Not sure exactly where on the west coast it landfalls since I'm not familiar with the Lat/Long on the SW coast of florida.
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Ed G
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 77
Loc: Clermont, Fl
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where are you finding the 6Z? Post link please!
thanks
stay dry with your feet firmly on the ground
e
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charlottefl
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 94
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Misread that post.
Edited by charlottefl (Thu Oct 20 2005 11:53 AM)
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