Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
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Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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There is only one buoy close enough to provide useful info on at the moment... buoy 42056, which is located roughly 60 nautical miles NW of the center. It has been reporting winds near or at hurricane force for a couple of hours now (highest 1-minute wind speed of 66.8 knots the last hour):
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42056
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
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Posts: 828
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
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There is not much land between the west coast and the east coast down where I am.Plus how much would she weaken if she is moving fast.Remember ?And what that did farther from the west coast than I am.
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist
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Posts: 576
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Quote:
How? the models are calling for a stall so how do you throw them out then? and why don't you buy it?
...It's probably not so much a question of if it will stall, but where...
It may stall as the models indicate, but the analysis that I have demonstrated shows at least for one model, the , it was off at its 6 hour interval with a SSW bias. Extrapolating the 18Z is already thrown out for that reason.
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Rasvar
Weather Master
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Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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Quote:
How? the models are calling for a stall so how do you throw them out then? and why don't you buy it?
I am not saying I am not buying the stall. I am not buying that the storm makes it as far inland as the models say. Everything is really dependant on where the stall occurs and how much interaction with the Yucatan actually happens. If manages to stay more near the coast or even off the coast, the strength and possibly the structure of the storm could be very different from how the models are seeing it. A stronger organized structure will have a different atmospheric dynamic then a weakening system that is having its internal structure damaged. Until the stall occurs or the storm actually clears the Yucatan, I am going to have trouble feeling that the models beyond 48 hours are going to be very consistent or reliable. I am not even sure they are entirely reliable in the short term. Without a well defined steering flow, a lot of unforecasted things can happen. that is my point. The model may be right; but there are a lot of other things that can happen right now to make these models useless. Problem is we will not know for some time.
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Jim
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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
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Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
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Hi Bob this thing is driving us crazy here in Tampa Bay as well because we remember too. However, it is not possible to know the answers tonight because the information is simply not available yet. There is every possibility that this storm will be a rain event by the time the center gets to Florida. Either way, when the outer bands get closer it can throw tornados especially if there is a strong pressure gradient between a cold front to the north and the warm tropical air to the south. If the storm was headed away from you it could still throw a tornado and demolish the house next to you and leave you stand or vice versa. The only one who knows what is going to happen has not sent any heavenly messages yet.
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Nandav--I don't know how far you are from the coast. But the people in Louisiana and Mississippi thought and did the same thing with .
Look at a map of the MS Coast and see how far inland I-10 is. The surge/ wind driven waves were better than 10 feet at that point. ( Hwy 603 and I-10 )
Ralph and Richisurfs. You are both entitled to your opinions. Each one of the 800 people on here now deals with stress differently.
Either PM each other with your comments or don't comment...please.
Comments directed at another person will get you a Time Out. Thanks
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nowhammies
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 19
Loc: Orlando, FL
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I have heard people say, here on this site, over and over again, that a big storm cannot turn on a dime. That makes sense. Language may be my forte, but basic physics is learned quickly by those of us who are very clumsy 
Why is it that almost all of the models have making some sort of VERY sharp turn, wheter over land or over water? I suspect that I have not read the most recent data, but I have been curious about that as I have seen it happening all day.
How can a computer model generate such a sharp turn when a sharp turn just seems physically impossible?
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Todd Caldwell
Registered User
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Posts: 6
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Thunderbird12,
You beat me to the punch! I was just about to post the same thing so I'll just add a graphic link to show 's 8:00 PM location. Gust to 84 mph with 32.5' seas.
Weather Buoy
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Jorge Nakazawa
Registered User
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Posts: 9
Loc: Mexico City, Mexico
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Thunderbird: Thank you very much.
I will keep tracking this storm. Unfortunately the cancun radar shows a direct trajectory towards the Cozumel area. I am quite safe in Mexico City, but I have some friends in Cancun. Hopefully they listened to the warnings I send them tuesday night and are either at a safe refuge or out of town. This site has been invaluable in assesing and following 's fast intensification and evolution.
Jorge Nakazawa
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Rasvar
Weather Master
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Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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A sharp turn is not impossible when the motion is slow and erratic. A storm moving 10-12 MPh would have a bit too much energy to turn on a dime. A storm moving at 3-5 in an erratic fashion can change direction easily if the right steering flow get a hold of it.
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Jim
Edited by Rasvar (Fri Oct 21 2005 02:35 AM)
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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist
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Posts: 576
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Quote:
I have heard people say, here on this site, over and over again, that a big storm cannot turn on a dime. That makes sense. Language may be my forte, but basic physics is learned quickly by those of us who are very clumsy
Why is it that almost all of the models have making some sort of VERY sharp turn, wheter over land or over water? I suspect that I have not read the most recent data, but I have been curious about that as I have seen it happening all day.
How can a computer model generate such a sharp turn when a sharp turn just seems physically impossible?
The reason they do this isn't a contradiction if you undertand the storm structure... The models are averaging together to a position 'over land' on the Yucatan for a considerable length of time, enough to induce substantial weakening.. Should that take place, it is thus more susceptible to subtler influences in the steering field more readily as they incur. But... there is some short term analysis now that suggests that the models, particularly the (I simply haven't analyzed for the others yet) is demonstrating a W bias at the 6 hour interval off the 18Z (2pm) run.
which fair enough to say, means that it may not be correct about the landfall, or any length of time thereafter...
Edited by typhoon_tip (Fri Oct 21 2005 02:34 AM)
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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The sharp turn is Supposed to be in response to a front/ shortwave passing through the area.
I believe it's currently in the Desert SW. But it's forecast to move rather rapidly toward the SE.
I'm looking at a few loops at this time. I am seeing the outflow from further North than it was early this morning. I don't know what is permitting it to advacne to the North. But it's moved from the Port Charlotte area to near Cedar Key currently.
Oh, and I'm not a MET-standard disclaimer
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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REPEATING THE 10 PM CDT POSITION...19.3 N... 86.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...150 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 923 MB
not much change
NOAA BUOY 42003 IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO INDICATES THAT LARGE SWELLS  GENERATED BY HAVE PROPAGATED WELL INTO THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST ON FRIDAY.
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Fri Oct 21 2005 02:35 AM)
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weatherwatcher2
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 97
Loc: Parrish florida
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I am not comprehending why this storm is so hard to forecast? Is it the old "if it gets into the gulf its anyones guess' theory? Why is this storm so different than all the others? Were the models contaminated at one point? , and if so why? I know this sounds absolutely far fetched and rediculous but is it possible that a contaminated model could be from an outside source like a virus or a terrorist plot? I am quite sure that everyone plotting this storm is in very tight nit contact via phone etc.. I just thought I would ask because this one has been a true Sherlock Holmes Mystery.. These pros have been doing this for years and this just seems to be a real challenge so far. Thanks all for your professional and courtious replies! Everyone has been great!
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gailwarning
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 35
Loc: Satellite Beach FL
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Forgive me for bothering you'all if this is generally known, but I like this web site because it has so much info--maps, statements, etc--gathered conveniently in one place. For all I know, this site might even BE one of you, but thought I'd share anyway. Crown Weather
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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist
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Posts: 576
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Quote:
REPEATING THE 10 PM CDT POSITION...19.3 N... 86.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...150 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 923 MB
not much change
NOAA BUOY 42003 IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO INDICATES THAT LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY HAVE PROPAGATED WELL INTO THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST ON FRIDAY.
Question: Is that based on new data??
Also - they don't by protocol register changes in tracks for shorter duration apparencies.. There has to be a better demonstration.. Not sure if the analysis in question is for a length of time to offer significant weight in those decisions quite honestly... And, I have to admit also that it is based on my own subjective analysis - which I'm sure you are already aware - and honestly, hasn't this thing been a bear for mere satellite obs?? It's eye is oddly behaved all evening and makes it difficult to best estimate.
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Rasvar
Weather Master
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Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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No terrorist plot to contaminate the data with a virus. That I can be 100% sure about. Just atmosphereic dynamics. And not enough data for the models to get a good handle on it. Plus we do not understand everything that occurs with hurricanes. Some of them are just going to confound us. Simple cold fronts confound us at times. Just the nature of weather forecasting. No deep plot anywhere.
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Jim
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jmusicman
Registered User
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Posts: 3
Loc: Fort Lauderdale,FL
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I've been watching you guys for a while and thought you might like this link (its the 11pm forecast track)
http://www.nlmoc.navy.mil/center/Tropical/wtnt01.gif
if you look at the degrees (325) of motion it looks like its now officially moving NNW
Edited by jmusicman (Fri Oct 21 2005 02:42 AM)
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Genesis
Weather Guru
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Posts: 125
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Only showing 11' seas - but on a 13 second period. 11' isn't huge - but its definitely significant.
Trend is definitely up, the period has been long since last night. Periods over 10 seconds are unusual - except for hurricane-based swells - in the gulf.....
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42003
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
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Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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Intensity-wise, it's tough to say without some new recon data. The eye has definitely become better defined since the last recon fix, but it has not cleared out to the extent that you see with some extremely powerful hurricanes. The convection is not extremely cold yet and is not quite symmetric around the center, with more and deeper convection on the east side of the system.
If this had been a weaker storm to begin with, I would say it is intensifying, but since it is a very powerful system, the improved organization may just be going towards holding off more of a weakening trend. The radar presentation of the eyewall isn't super-impressive yet, either. The plane is on the way, so I guess we'll find out in a couple of hours whether this thing has been deepening again. Latest advisory just issued by still indicates the possibility of strengthening in the next 12-24 hours.
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