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Archives >> 2005 Storm Forum

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tpratch
Moderator


Reged: Fri
Posts: 337
Loc: Maryland
Forecasts
      #61076 - Fri Oct 21 2005 09:57 PM

Is the Cancun radar truly off the air now?

Also, as much as I usually respect the opinions of the mods here, why say that only the NHC's forecast is worth something because they are professionals? Aside from the raw data and a few super ensembles, what do they truly have that we don't? A few extra pieces of paper (and taxpayer money)?

Now it does irk me when mets on TV go their own way or lambast the NHC - especially when it's largely to get viewers and improve ratings through sensationalism (witness every GOM storm's coverage by Tampa TV "keep your eye as another storm is set to remove Tampa from the map").

Anyway, call me jaded, but I think sometimes even the NHC can get too focused on the here and now and each model run and forget to look at the big picture completely. The rely too much on models rather than reading what the models are seeing and using the models ONLY for guidance. Other than the insight, the NHC's forecast tracks are usually either right in the middle of all of the models, or right down the middle of the models whose results aren't thrown out.

3 days ago, based on conditions, the models, etc, I called for a Venice to Volusia-Indian River County (basically Brevard) path. I'm not going to jump up and down and say oooh oooh, it's going to verify, but based on the recent NHC adjustments, I wouldn't be surprised in the slightest if it did. It was perhaps a forecast ahead of its time, but in spite of the model's 3/4/5 days points jumping around (1500 miles from one run to another?) - they latched onto something very early when they were almost all in agreement. Their timing (to be frank) may have sucked, but they were showing a fantastic consensus and only trending slightly north.

Sure, those items in the atmosphere causing the original forecast points are gone and new features are in their places, but the song (and dance) remain the same.

I know that the forecast lounge was created to keep the wishcasting and silly guesses quiet during a landfall march, but in doing so, some of the heart of this board went missing. I've seen very valid comments (someone offered an opinion to keep your eyes right on the not-quite-yet Wilma as it could become a Cat 5 - they even listed (I believe) the conditions that would be responsible) get graveyarded and I've seen out-of-line conversation kept on.

I'm not saying permitting landfall forecasts in the news threads is the solution, nor am I saying the forecast lounge is the problem. Somewhere this place morphed from being a discussion board to a board where you either agree with the NHC, are a met, or are asked to keep a lid on it. The discussion aspect during the "long march" is gone, and something went away with it. I wish I could put my finger on it, but I can't.

Yes, I am very guilty of being extraordinarily off-topic for this thread, but as my topic is this board and its function itself, I'd appreciate a little bit of view time for all. Granted, replies shouldn't be given here since they'll only further push this thread off topic, but to be honest, at the pace Wilma is moving, we have nothing but time

Perhaps this post (once deemed to have used up its allowance) can be replaced by a link to a thread with its contents?

Cheers and thanks for your indulgence,
--Tom


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3888
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: Forecasts [Re: tpratch]
      #61083 - Fri Oct 21 2005 10:05 PM

I think the biggest rule I use with the site rules, is does it mislead or is it informative. The main goal of the site is to provide information, and discussion on it. The main news forum is to discuss what is going on and report findings.

We remove clutter when we can (And we can't babysit all day and night so some things do get through). Wishcasting serves no purpose except to panic and confuse people, so we created the forecast lounge to give more relaxed rules. Because it gives those that want to see what others think more options Clutter is the biggest problem. I use the site myself to find out information, and I don't like wading through junk to get it, but at the same time you've got to allow for discussion. That is the entire purpose of the other forums. Focus in the news, free form in the others.

A few people cause the most problems, most people are fine. This doesn't belong on the main thread at all so it got moved here.

The problem remains people making claims without explaining why, and without that, it doesn't belong on the main page. I just try to focus on what we are good at. There are other forums and boards that focus more on free form discussion so there is no point to repeat that here.


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tpratch
Moderator


Reged: Fri
Posts: 337
Loc: Maryland
Re: Forecasts [Re: MikeC]
      #61089 - Fri Oct 21 2005 10:13 PM

Fair enough. Was just hoping to get a discussion going on the topic. Well, to be honest, I'm not sure what sort of response I was looking for.

There's just something that is very much different this year, and specifically this storm. Like I said, I can't put my finger on it, and I don't claim to have a solution. Yes, it's horrible to wade through a bunch of posts, but I've learned to skim through the side conversations and latch onto good data/intel.

I think Giving the mets blogs is a good and bad thing too. Any met post should ultimately be cross-posted to the latest storm forum because they certainly have the info we're all here after. They're the draw, so to speak. I know that when (for example) Clark posts, I'll actually take the time to read and re-read everything he says. That man does things in a manner that I completely get, and I enjoy reading verification of things I've been noticing from someone who does get paid to do this.

Now, that seems to go against my "what's so special about the NHC" subrant, but I'm not really anti-NHC. Never have been, really. They're where the buck stops and like Shaft, they deliver 10 times out of 10.

Anyway thanks for the shiny thread and a great board, Mike.

--Tom


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Bev
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 126
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL and Abaco, ... 27.03N 82.06W
Re: Forecasts [Re: tpratch]
      #61091 - Fri Oct 21 2005 10:14 PM

Quote:


<snip>
I know that the forecast lounge was created to keep the wishcasting and silly guesses quiet during a landfall march, but in doing so, some of the heart of this board went missing. I've seen very valid comments (someone offered an opinion to keep your eyes right on the not-quite-yet Wilma as it could become a Cat 5 - they even listed (I believe) the conditions that would be responsible) get graveyarded and I've seen out-of-line conversation kept on.

I'm not saying permitting landfall forecasts in the news threads is the solution, nor am I saying the forecast lounge is the problem. Somewhere this place morphed from being a discussion board to a board where you either agree with the NHC, are a met, or are asked to keep a lid on it. The discussion aspect during the "long march" is gone, and something went away with it. I wish I could put my finger on it, but I can't.
<snip>
--Tom




I've been an avid member of this site for over a year. I read more than I post, and I very much agree with Tom. It seems the "moderation" factor has become so overzealous, it's much less interesting and opposing viewpoints are cut rather than allowed to remain for discussion.

In addition, the overly repetitive posting by moderators of "listen only to the NHC" has become almost laughably legaleze. Please, post one great big RED notice on the front page that this board contains "no content of any worth and please listen "ONLY TO THE NHC" and let us get back to discussing the hurricanes, varying viewpoints on differing effects of atmospheric conditions on track/strength, etc. without CONSTANTLY having to add a disclaimer to our opinions.

We are here to discuss, and I welcome ALL viewpoints, even amateur ones, which are sometimes worthy of comic relief, but still welcome. I rarely give a viewpoint, but very much enjoy learning and digesting those who do brave the moderators and dare to offer an opinion that differs from the NHC.

Through exploration of differing ideas we come close to understanding the fascinating phenomenon which this board is supposedly dedicated to, the hurricane.

We are not an NHC fan club, nor are we an NHC bash club, we're simply fans of the hurricane. (or foes, but either way, fascinated)

Thanks,
Bev


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tpratch
Moderator


Reged: Fri
Posts: 337
Loc: Maryland
Re: Forecasts [Re: Bev]
      #61101 - Fri Oct 21 2005 10:22 PM

I also have to make comment that I find it highly ironic that I'm seeking a wider disucssion here, when on fark if there's a hurricane thread, I'm the one using the NHC as my backbone. I'll caution folks to ignore the people trying to cause panic, and I'll only give my opinion as such and stress that while I might believe X to be true, the NHC has stated Y and you should absolutely listen to them. Of course, those threads generally become question and answer sessions and a few folks helping interpret and explain what the NHC is saying. We'll occasionally speak out when we believe there's an error, but the NHC have been pointing out when they have low-confidence in their forecast with Wilma, and it's cool to be able to help explain to others why it is, and what we believe the NHC would love to say if their favorite model hadn't smoked too much crack.

Anyway, like I said, I'm not entirely certain why it feels so different, just pointing out that it does and speculating upon that (sorry, no model support for my theory there)


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Bev
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 126
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL and Abaco, ... 27.03N 82.06W
Re: Forecasts [Re: tpratch]
      #61104 - Fri Oct 21 2005 10:25 PM

LOL, Tom we were graveyarded.

Oh well, thanks for expressing your opinion, sorry it ended in a dead forum. You are dead-on right, the feeling is completely different.

Thanks for verbalizing what has been bothering me as well.

-Bev


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3888
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: Forecasts [Re: Bev]
      #61107 - Fri Oct 21 2005 10:27 PM

The NHC has the power to make warnings, watches, and generally massive effect businesses and livelyhoods just on that alone. For that reason alone I emphasize what I do. I don't have what they have, and don't want it. The NHC is great at tracks, and bad at intensity and mediocre at timing.

The biggest problem is that the site has grown, and the noise level is higher. It just became more necessary to do it. Trust me, if you got the emails and calls I have with people crying over someones stray wishcashing post you would quickly realize why it is a bad idea to leave them on the front page. Especially when the namecalling starts.

We generally allow a lot to go through, but everyone seems to get short when a system like this approaches. I stand by what we do. We offer all sorts of ways to talk about what you describe in the other forums, but it is most definitely irresponsible to leave it as part of the main page when the topic is laid out.

Information is good, but only if it's factual. Wilma is the focus now, for good reason.

I can't make everyone happy. But for how much this costs me and my stupid insistence of keeping it pro bono, I'll go with what I've found to work.


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tpratch
Moderator


Reged: Fri
Posts: 337
Loc: Maryland
Re: Forecasts [Re: MikeC]
      #61123 - Fri Oct 21 2005 10:39 PM

And at the core of it, that's what is important.

When you offer a free service you find yourself wanting to make it great, but resenting criticism. I hope none of this was taken as a stab at what you've created here.

Cheers,
--Tom

Oh, and Bev - we weren't graveyarded - this is a bonafide thread in a bonafide forum - just not the news forum. I expected it to be moved and it was. Back to the news with me.


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Bev
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 126
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL and Abaco, ... 27.03N 82.06W
Re: Forecasts [Re: MikeC]
      #61125 - Fri Oct 21 2005 10:39 PM

My intention is not to denigrate what you guys do. I love this place and value the information tremendously. Tom was simply elucidating an "atmospheric" change on the board and I agree with him wholeheartedly.

I'm sure you are right, the effect has been caused by the tremendous growth of the board. Just as a large hurricane creates it's own conditions to a degree I suppose the transformation of this board from a Cat 1 to a Cat 5 also necessitates the change in conditions. Our lamentations don't belong on the main page.

Thanks for all your hard work, Mike, and all the moderators and volunteers.

There have been improvements along with the perceived shortfalls we have pointed out. Among the improvements, the board is always available and responsive. Thanks for the capital investment which allows this.

-Bev


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3888
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: Forecasts [Re: tpratch]
      #61126 - Fri Oct 21 2005 10:40 PM

Quote:

And at the core of it, that's what is important.

When you offer a free service you find yourself wanting to make it great, but resenting criticism. I hope none of this was taken as a stab at what you've created here.

Cheers,
--Tom

Oh, and Bev - we weren't graveyarded - this is a bonafide thread in a bonafide forum - just not the news forum. I expected it to be moved and it was. Back to the news with me.




No not at all. I'm looking for feedback on this type of thing. I don't take the site or me too seriously so fire away.


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Elaine H
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 21
Re: Forecasts [Re: MikeC]
      #61146 - Fri Oct 21 2005 11:04 PM

missed a lot of what you are talking sbout...suddenly I csn't find the regular discussion forum...or has evryone stopped contributing?

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weatherwatcher2
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 97
Loc: Parrish florida
Re: Forecasts [Re: MikeC]
      #61148 - Fri Oct 21 2005 11:06 PM

Alot of the models are trending slightly north. I wonder how it will play out. Atleast it will be a very weak storm. Thats what most of the mets are saying locally..

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Elaine H
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 21
Re: Forecasts [Re: weatherwatcher2]
      #61149 - Fri Oct 21 2005 11:07 PM

I noticed the models were more spread out than they were @ 5:00pm

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weatherwatcher2
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 97
Loc: Parrish florida
Re: Forecasts [Re: Elaine H]
      #61150 - Fri Oct 21 2005 11:09 PM

Its been a very mind racking storm as far as landfall in Florida. How far down is the cold front in the gulf?

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Mayor of Moronia
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 16
Loc: Bayonet Point, Pasco County
Re: Forecasts [Re: MikeC]
      #61158 - Fri Oct 21 2005 11:18 PM

Philosopher F.A.Hayek observed that you just never know where the next great idea is going to come from. It cant be predicted. And when you dampen the so-called noise and chatter you unintentionally push solutions further into the future. It's true. Another philosopher, Edward De Bono, who happens to be a scientist and medical doctor and aviator and lots of things, observed that groups tend to reach a critical mass where orthodoxy suddenly replaces creativity and spontaniety sets up like concrete. I suppose you cant have tumult and chaos as a steady diet, but the spirit of things gets smothered when the chaperones of thought invade the party and everyone digs the same hole...deeper.

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