emackl
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 205
Loc: Indianapolis
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The Cancun radar took a long time to update. However, the new pic looks like it has moved north and the COC is starting into Cancun. I can't imagine what is happening there.
http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?12
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TinaB
Verified CFHC User
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Loc: Tampa, FL
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Tina - I'm a Tampa resident also, and I happen to agree with you. We are ready to implement our plan... if necessary. Remember Charlie? It missed us at the last minute. That could happen again, but in the opposite direction. Bottom line - we don't know until we know - and that's not until after it's come and gone! Hope for the best, but prepare for the worst... 
Hi TampaSu...Yea, I think alot of us Tampa residents who follow these things and don't poo-poo our chances of a hit are thinking the same thing. We had three trees go down last year...and it didn't take hurricane force winds to do it. Heck, we've lost tree limbs in one of our typical summer thunderstorms! Sure we won't suffer complete destruction like with a , but those tornadoes can be scarier than a hurricane any day. I'm praying!
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Loc: Florida
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I think the "cone of error" is there for a reason...because there could be (and usually are) errors on the exact point of landfall. If you are in the "cone", you should be prepared whether people laugh at you or not.  This has been reiterated again and again and again by the , the NWS, etc. It may do exactly what they are projecting it to do and it may wobble north or south of where they think the most likely point of landfall will be. A rule of thumb that I live by is that until it passes your lat/lon, you are not out of the woods by any means and should be prepared. Unfortunately, was the best example of this last year when he made his sharp right hand turn into Punta Gorda at the last minute and some people were shocked. There are so many different variable with a storm that you don't really know what's going to happen until it actually does happen.
Since I have recently been accused by a member (whose identity I will not disclose out of respect to him/her) by a PM of wish-casting this storm (and apparantly every other storm for the last year) to come to Tampa, I wanted to clear something up: if people have thought that by my saying I thought it would come in further north that I was wishcasting it to Tampa, that is not what I intended. What was intended in my posts what that this storm could still come further north than Naples -- most likely Ft. Myers if that WAS to happen. I certainly hope this clarifies this issue for anyone who read my posts and thought I was wishcasting a storm anywhere.
Now...onto the weather we can expect on Monday/Tuesday (whenever it finally decides to arrive), the cold front that is supposed to push southward will collide with and that will cause some ugly weather to rear it's ugly head. So just stay alert and tuned in and watch for any conditions that are threatening to you or your family.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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tenavilla
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 95
Loc: Tampa Area
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I just hope people aren't being a little too cavalier about what would happen if this hits Tampa. We're still not out of the woods and downtown Tampa is ill-prepared to deal with the storm surge. If a storm threatens this area, they have to shut power down to the entire downtown grid because it will be flooded and if power isn't cut when the water comes in, it obviously creates all sorts of problems. Here is a link for interactive graphics showing what will happen if a hurricane hits the bay. One of the interactives shows what areas will be under water with each category of storm from "just" a TS to a Cat 5.
http://tbo.com/hurricane2005/worstcase/
Bottom line is that has a lot of water to cross before it gets to FL and anything can happen. The forecast is based upon a lot of what "should" happen with these fronts, not systems that are already in place, so...nothing is certain at all.
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evergladesangler
Weather Hobbyist
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The Cancun radar took a long time to update. However, the new pic looks like it has moved north and the COC is starting into Cancun. I can't imagine what is happening there.
http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?12
You're right it's moving ENE now. I don't see how it ever makes it far enough north to hit north of Everglades City.
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Twin Cities
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From cancun travel online site (italics mine):
Just finishing translation of a short briefing issued by Governor of Quintana Roo about Cozumel.
COZUMEL Q.ROO
"The first point of impact in Quintana Roo and for that matter Mexico was the Island Of Cozumel located off the coast of Quintana Roo near the resort destination of Playa Del Carmen. "Wilma" came across Cozumel as a Category 4 Hurricane causing massive devestation according to preliminary information I am receiving"
"The Civil Protection from Quintana Roo is reporting that the winds took down and caused severe damage to houses and businesses including those that had protection and re-inforcement against Hurricanes ."
Additionally Signs, posts, electrical poles were blown away and some vehicles were overturned and swept away as well.
The Principal streets and avenues are flooded with waters of 4 to 5 feet and there are dozens of boats with damage. There was also a that washed almost a mile of highway into the ocean on the "backend of the Island"
As of right now officials in Cozumel have not reported any serious injuries nor deaths.
The highway they are referring to runs along the mostly undeveloped eastern shore that faces the ocean.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
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Loc: Oklahoma
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Based on the radar, it appears that the center is generally edging to the north, but moving erratically between E and W as it goes.
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Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker
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You should never rest easy until the storm has dissipated. If you are in the cone of error just be ready to evacuate if necessary.
I noticed Broward Co. is already flooding. The sad thing is is taking forever to leave the Yucatan. The damage there must be
bad.
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Rdietch
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Is there anyone left in Naples or FT Myers? i mean that is where the track has had it going for days now and most likly the place for it to hit and all we hear on here is Tampa Tampa Tampa.Not saying Wishcasting but people saying Tampa is not out of the Woods.That is true but not very likely to happen and yes you have to watch but nobody is talking about the poor people who really are in the path so it makes it look as if Naples has it easy when everyone talks just about tampa.
Does not anyone think it has a shot at Naples anymore? either Tampa or Bust?
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FlaMommy
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Tampa(Riverview), Florida
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i havent been on all morning and dont know whats goin on as of yet....i made hotel reservations for tommorrow and monday night in case it slowed down....we have to cancel by 4pm today if we dont need the room...but we cant afford to just pay for the room if we dont need it....i need some serious advice on what to do....id go with my gut feeling but im torn...and hubby says the same....can you please helppp
becky
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"Haven't thought of a witty one lately"
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
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Loc: Oklahoma
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Someone mentioned earlier that the outflow seemed to be improving... looks that way to me as well. That will be a factor in favor of short-term intensification IF the inner structure of the storm is still intact when it emerges back over water, whenever that happens.
As it turns out, came dangerously close to stalling just near or off of the coast, which would have made things even worse for all involved. Thankfully, that didn't happen.
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laureg
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 22
Loc: Port St. Lucie, FL
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Fox is reporting that the flooding came from rain last night and that the weather is pretty good today; expecting the flooding to clear up before the storm has any major impact.
Wondering if not now, maybe a later post, if someone can give their opinion as to how the storm might react should it travel over Lake Okeechobee?
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Tazmanian93
Weather Master
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Posts: 495
Loc: Tampa
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God I hate when the " I gotta say it first, predict it first" people come into play on this site and then are critical of someone else's thoughts and wish we could simply block their darn IP. Colleen, I think based on your posts, experience, knowledge, value added to this site, there should not be anybody accusing you of ever wishcasting. I personally respect any cogent insight, opinion you and anyone else bring to the table and believe most here do as well. If anyone were a 100% expert , then these sites would not exist and some folks on here would be in another line of work because it would be so easy for everyone to predict. I have been on this site for a while now and every storm we have someone or a few folks who seem to want to upset the apple cart. If you agree so be it, if you disagree, VALIDATE it. And do not assume that anyone sane would be wishing possible death and destruction on anyone anywhere. Now lets all get along, be safe, happy and healthy and hope for the best for anyone impacted and keep each other informed and thinking, not arguing.
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Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
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Ed
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weatherwatcher2
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: Parrish florida
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Isnt the cold front already making it just north of Tampa?
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Tazmanian93
Weather Master
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Posts: 495
Loc: Tampa
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I believe the southern most part (as it relates to florida)of the front is still in the Panhandle, anyone see anything diff?
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Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
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Ed
Edited by Tazmanian93 (Sat Oct 22 2005 04:41 PM)
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laureg
Verified CFHC User
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Loc: Port St. Lucie, FL
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I would tend to agree with pretty much the majority here. If you are on the west coast of FL, regardless of your city, you need to have a plan, pay attention to the cone and draw your own conclusions for your own safety.
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Rdietch
Weather Hobbyist
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i havent been on all morning and dont know whats goin on as of yet....i made hotel reservations for tommorrow and monday night in case it slowed down....we have to cancel by 4pm today if we dont need the room...but we cant afford to just pay for the room if we dont need it....i need some serious advice on what to do....id go with my gut feeling but im torn...and hubby says the same....can you please helppp
becky
I am in South Bradenton and not Far from the water and i have no Motel Res made at all.If it comes ill go my brothers house down the road which is not a evac for a cat 1-3 storm so unless the track changes i would just be ready but to go to a motel now and be in Tampa is to me IMO a waste of money.Call up and just keep the one for Monday or wait till tomorrow Morning at that time we will have a better grip on where its going.
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KC
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 87
Loc: Naples, FL
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Yes - there are people left in Naples and Fort Myers. Lots of them. And they are all paying attention and getting prepared. If you look at the probabilities, Fort Myers and Naples are listed at 24%, Venice at 23% and Tampa at 22%. The point is that much of the west coast of Florida is at risk. This is a very difficult storm with a lot of variables that can still affect the path. I recall questions about Tampa but I guess I missed anyone saying that was definitely going to Tampa.
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weatherwatcher2
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: Parrish florida
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I'll bet the further down the cold front comes the further the track will shift south. All depends how far down it comes.
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lulu
Registered User
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i havent been on all morning and dont know whats goin on as of yet....
becky
Me, neither. I'm in Ft. Myers. We have hotel reservations in Orlando and West Palm. Where should we go? When should we leave? What about tornados? Where is that cold front? Should we just head for (OMIGOD) Georgia? Tornadoes scare me more than hurricanes. And now it's flooding on the east coast (Ft. Lauderdale). Help! 
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